Greater Golden Horseshoe

Transcription

1 Greater Golden Horseshoe 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY (AS AT Q3 2016)

2 TORONTO - OVERVIEW The Toronto Census Metropolitan Area ( CMA ) is comprised of the City of Toronto, which is the capital of the province of Ontario and the most populous city in Canada, as well as 23 additional municipalities and surrounding areas. The CMA is anchored by the City of Toronto on the northwestern shore of Lake Ontario which spans 630 km 2 while the larger CMA spans over 5,900 km 2. Logistically, the Greater Toronto Area ( GTA ) is well situated on the border with the U.S. (mid-way across Lake Ontario) providing access to 135 million people within a 500-mile radius (one day drive or one hour flight). 1 Proximity to this population base and the economic influences and linkages to the U.S. eastern coastal markets, namely New York, has secured the GTA its recognition as the industrial, manufacturing and financial capital of Canada. 2 TORONTO - JOBS The Toronto CMA ranked 1 st among Canada s major CMA s for employment growth from 2000 to 2015 with the addition of 812,799 positions 3 Toronto remains one of Canada s fastest-growing metro economies, with real gross domestic product ( GDP ) forecast to increase by 3.4% in 2016 and 2.6% in Strong trade activity is expected to add to overall economic growth as the lower Canadian dollar and moderate U.S. demand support activity in export-related industries such as manufacturing and tourism 5 Toronto s positive economic outlook is forecast to be mirrored in the labour market, with the expected creation of a total of 109,000 jobs from 2016 to TORONTO - PEOPLE The Toronto CMA added 1,474,453 residents over the period from 2000 to 2015, ranking it 1 st among Canada s largest CMAs for population growth 7 Ottawa, Ontario 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY 2

3 Toronto is projected to be the top Canadian destination for international migration from 2015 to 2019, contributing heavily to population growth 8 The GTA is projected to be the fastest growing region in Ontario, with population increasing by over 2.8 million, or 42.9%, to reach nearly 9.5 million people by TORONTO - PERMITS Builders in the Toronto CMA started 219,260 units over the period from 2000 to 2015, ranking the CMA 1 st among the nation s CMAs for single family housing starts 10 Prospective buyers seeking single-family homes are continuously looking to the peripheral areas of the GTA to satisfy their needs at a relatively lower price compared to the rest of the region (average price of over $1 million for a single-family detached unit in the GTA in August 2016) 11 Low inventory in the low rise market, predominantly among single-family detached homes, is expected to keep prices points high in the region over the forecast period 12 Builders in the Toronto CMA are expected to start 10,464 single-family units in 2016, up from the 10,223 units started in Longer term, single-family starts are forecast to increase annually from 9,770 units in 2017 to 10,660 units in BRANTFORD - OVERVIEW The Brantford CMA exists outside of the Toronto CMA / GTA and is composed of the City of Brantford as well as the sorrounding County of Brant. The region is located approximately one hour southwest of the City of Toronto (88 km / 55 miles) on provincial highway 403 outside of the provincially mandated greenbelt. Brantford is strategically positioned along the shortest major highway route to the U.S. border crosssings of Niagara Falls (110 km / 70 miles) and Detroit (270 km / 170 miles). 15 The County of Brant is served by the Canadian National and the Canadian Pacific Railway for both cargo and passenger capabilities with additional regional commuter services to the Greater Toronto, Hamilton and the larger Greater Golden Horseshoe provided by GO train service. 16 Brantford is also home to four post-secondary institutions, offering thirty-six under-graduate and graduate programs, the largest of which is Laurier Brantford with total enrollment of roughly 2,800 students. 17 There are an additional 11 universities and 9 colleges within 110km/170mi of Brantford, making the region one of the most heavily concentrated locations for post-seconday institutions in the nation. 18 BRANTFORD - JOBS Brantford s total employment is expected to grow 0.8% in 2016 before moderating to 0.6% in 2017 and 0.5% in A strong construction sector has been driving employment growth in the Brantford CMA in Gains in manufacturing, Brantford s largest sector, is forecast to keep employment growing at a healthy pace over the forecast period 21 BRANTFORD - PEOPLE Migration from the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area ( GTHA ) is projected to escalate demand for low rise housing in the next three years as these types of dwellings are relatively more affordable in Brantford compared to areas within the GTHA 22 The number of people moving from Brantford to other provinces (net inter-provincial migration) declined significantly in 2015 due in large part to a slower economic situation in the western part of Canada 23 Total population in the Brantford CMA is forecast to reach 144,900 people in 2016, up 0.7% from In 2017 and 2018 total population in the Brantford CMA is projected to increase further to 146,000 people and 147,100 people respectively 25 Ottawa, Ontario 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY 3

4 BRANTFORD - PERMITS Single-family detached housing starts in the Brantford CMA moderated slightly in 2015 to 265 units, down from 278 units in Single-family detached housing starts in the Brantford CMA are forecast to be in the 230 to 280 unit range in 2016; 220 to 275 unit range in 2017 and 190 to 265 unit range in Single-family detached homes are expected to continue to be the dominant type of home built in Brantford 28 Demand for single family product is expected to be supported by homebuyers who are moving to Brantford from other communities to take advantage of relatively affordable new single-family detached homes 29 NIAGARA - OVERVIEW The St. Catharines Niagara Census Metropolitan Area ( SCN ) is anchored by the City of St. Catharines, which is the largest and most populous city in the region, as well as Niagara Falls, which is the second most populous city in the region. 30 The Walton land assemblies are located south of the City of Niagara Falls and east of the Queen Elizabeth Way ( QEW ) highway, which serves as the central line of road infrastructure for the region. Situated between Lake Ontario and Lake Eerie, Niagara Falls directly abuts the border with the U.S. that runs along the Niagara River. Due to this strategic location, the region serves as a major North American gateway on both sides of the border. 31 The cities and towns in the Niagara region are within a one hour drive to Toronto, Buffalo and Western New York and within a one day drive from roughly 55% of all U.S. manufacturing activity and almost half of the U.S. population. 32 The Niagara region is also accessible globally by the St. Lawrence Seaway s Welland canal and several international airports that are in close proximity, including Lester B. Pearson international in Toronto. NIAGARA - JOBS The main economic driver for the Niagara region is manufacturing, a sector with a broad range of outputs that include transportation, machinery, fabricated metals, food processing, primary metals, plastic and rubber 33 Employment in SCN is forecast to experience a 1.6% decline in o Recent downward employment trends in goods-producing industries (excluding construction) that have offset gains in services-producing industries Employment is anticipated to grow modestly in SCN with projections of 1.7% growth in 2017 and 0.8% growth in Announcements, such as the expansion of GO Train service to the SCN region, and a new General Electric manufacturing plant opening in Welland in 2018 is expected to increase employment over the forecast period 36 Underlying job growth in the SCN region is projected to increase faster than the labour force in 2017 and 2018, reducing unemployment 37 NIAGARA - PEOPLE Intra-provincial migrants (individuals who move from one area to another within the same province) have been driving population growth in SCN in recent years 38 Increases in inter-provincial migration (individuals who move from one province to another) is expected in SCN given lower employment opportunities in Alberta 39 International migrants have been contributing positively to population growth in the SCN region, with strong growth projected due to the 2015/2016 influx of Syrian refugees into Canada 40 Population in SCN is forecast to grow to 409,700 people in 2016, up from 408,222 in 2015 Over the next few years, population is expected to increase to 411,100 in 2017 and 412,600 in Ottawa, Ontario 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY 4

5 NIAGARA - PERMITS Total housing starts in SCN have been on a strong upward trend since In 2015, total housing starts increased by 17.4% to 1,737 units with expectations that starts will range between 1,800 and 2,000 in Strong demand for resale housing in SCN is expected to spill over to the new home market, keeping housing starts at relatively high level 44 There has been a recent increase in demand towards single-family detached homes in SCN, likely due to their relative affordability compared to home prices in Toronto and Hamilton CMAs 45 Builders in SCN started 1,002 single-family detached homes in 2015, increasing 11.8% over the 896 units started in Single-family detached starts in SCN are forecast to range between: 1,300 and 1,400 units in 2016; 1,200 to 1,400 units in 2017 and 1,100 to 1,300 units in SIMCOE COUNTY - OVERVIEW Simcoe County is located in the central region of Southern Ontario. The County is situated just north of the Greater Toronto Area ( GTA ) and forms part of the Greater Golden Horseshoe ( GGH ) area, a highly populated industrialized region centred on the GTA. The King s Highway 400 functions as the region s primary growth corridor as it provides a key link to the GTA and the larger Greater Golden Horseshoe, driving both employment and population increases in Simcoe County. SIMCOE COUNTY - JOBS The total labour force within the County of Simcoe is 238, million workers are available within a one-hour commute to Simcoe County 49 Simcoe County is rapidly emerging as one of Ontario s largest business and manufacturing hubs 50 Labour force education and training is supported in the numerous institutions and organizations in the area including Georgian College, Lakehead University and private colleges 51 SIMCOE COUNTY - PEOPLE The County added a total of 62,845 residents between 1996 and 2010, which is equal to a growth rate of 28.3% 52 From 2006 to 2010, the County saw a population increase of 22,543, equivalent to 8.6% growth 53 Simcoe is expected to continue to experience population growth above the provincial average, increasing 37.1% from a population of 486,100 in 2015 to 666,600 in SIMCOE COUNTY - PERMITS Residential construction is an industry that is essential to the County s economic strength and prosperity 55 Recent job growth and population increases stimulated residential construction through 2015 with 2,846 new housing starts, increasing over the 2,322 starts in On-site and off-site jobs in new home construction accounted for 9,072 positions in 2015, making the new home construction industry a major source of employment in Simcoe County 57 New home construction in Simcoe County is estimated to have accounted for $527 million in wages in 2015, injecting stimulus in the form of purchases and expenditures across the local economy 58 Ottawa, Ontario 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY 5

6 1 Greater Toronto Marketing Alliance, Top Ten Reasons to Invest in the GTA as retrieved October 28, 2015 from 2 Greater Toronto Marketing Alliance, Top Ten Reasons to Invest in the GTA as retrieved October 28, 2015 from 3 Conference Board of Canada, Edata via Walton subscription, as retrieved May 6, Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Autumn Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Autumn Conference Board of Canada, Metropolitan Outlook, Autumn Conference Board of Canada, Edata via Walton subscription, as retrieved May 6, Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016 PWC and Urban Land Institute 9 Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections Update, Spring 2016, Conference Board of Canada, Edata via Walton subscription, as retrieved May 6, CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Greater Toronto Area, Fall CMHC Housing Market Outlook, Greater Toronto Area, Fall Conference Board of Canada, Edata via Walton subscription, as retrieved December 14, Conference Board of Canada, Edata via Walton subscription, as retrieved December 14, Advantage Brantford Quick Facts, City of Brantford Economic Development and Tourism 16 County of Brant Economic Development and Strategic Investments, Transportation as retrieved from 17 Advantage Brantford Quick Facts, City of Brantford Economic Development and Tourism 18 Advantage Brantford Quick Facts, City of Brantford Economic Development and Tourism Niagara Region Population as retrieved from 31 Niagara Economic Development as retrieved from 32 Niagara Economic Development as retrieved from 33 Niagara Economic Development as retrieved from County of Simcoe 10 Year Development Strategic Plan: Supporting Research and Appendices 53 County of Simcoe 10 Year Development Strategic Plan: Supporting Research and Appendices 54 Ministry of Finance, Ontario Population Projections Update, Canada Home Builders Association, Simcoe County, Canada Home Builders Association, Simcoe County, 2014 and Canada Home Builders Association, Simcoe County, Canada Home Builders Association, Simcoe County, 2015 Ottawa, Ontario 2017 REGIONAL MARKET ACTIVITY 6