Canada at 150 and the road ahead A view from Census 2016

Transcription

1 Canada at 150 and the road ahead A view from Census 2016 Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer 2017 Environics Analytics User Conference November 8, 2017

2 Canada continues to lead G7 in population growth, but growth varies across regions 2

3 Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate () Growth rate at a 15 year low Immigration accounts for two-thirds of growth Census Population and Growth Rate, Canada Census Population (millions) Census Population Growth Rate () Source: Statistics Canada, various Censuses

4 All four western provinces had above-average growth Population Growth Rate (), Canada, Provinces and Territories, and to to NU AB SK MB YK BC Canada ON QC PEI NL NWT NS NB 2.9 Source: Various Censuses

5 5

6 Our Population is aging, but Canada is still young compared to other g7 countries 6

7 More Seniors than Children Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 7

8 By 2046, one in Four Canadians will be 65 Years and older Percent of Population, Canada Age 0-14 Age Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 8

9 Why Canada is Starting to Look a Lot Older Percent Population Change , Canada Total Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 9

10 High growth of seniors population Projected Population Growth, , Canada Projected Population Growth, , Canada Total Under Total Under Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 10

11 the suburbs are a-changin 11

12 higher growth of seniors in suburbs Growth of Population Age 65+, City Suburbs Population Aged 65+ as Percent of Total Population, 2016 City Suburbs Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 12

13 Smaller but more diverse families and households 13

14 A diversity of households Types of Households, 2016 Change in Number of Households Total 5.6 Non-family 2 or more persons 4.1 Other 3.6 Multigenerational household 2.9 One-person 28.2 Loneparent 8.9 Couple without children 25.8 Couple with children 26.5 Couple without children Couple with children Lone-parent Multigenerational Other census family Non-family 2+ persons One-person Total Households: 14,072,080 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 14

15 Trend has been for later family formation but pattern is slowing Percentage of Young Adults Married or Common-law, Canada Ages Ages Total on top Common-law 36 Married Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 15

16 Percentage of young adults living with parents continues to increase Young Adults Living with Parents, Canada, 2016 Ages Ages Sources: Statistics Canada, censuses of population, 1981 to

17 Number of Same-sex couples up 13 percent from 2011 Same-sex couples are 0.9 percent of all couples Count in 000 Number of Same-sex Couples, Canada Total on top Common-law Married Average household income All couples $ 87,600 Same-sex couples $ 96,900 Percent of same-sex couples with children Male 4.5 Female 20.1 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 17

18 Increasing cultural diversity 18

19 Immigrants at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, ,000, ,000, Source: Statistics Canada 7,540,830 Total Immigrants, ,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

20 Immigrant numbers will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to ,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, Number Percentage Actual 23.7 Projected ,000, ,000, Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections 7,540,830 Total Immigrants, ,000 Non-permanent residents, 2016

21 89 countries with 10,000 or more immigrants Top Countries for Total Immigrants, 100,000 or More, Canada, 2016 Total Immigrants, 2016 Percent in Last 10 Years Total Immigrants, 2016 India China Philippines 668, , , Iran Poland Germany 154, , ,800 United Kingdom 499, United States 253, Portugal 139,400 Italy Hong Kong Pakistan Vietnam 236, , , , Jamaica Sri Lanka Korea, South France 138, , , ,600 Percent in Last 10 Years Total immigrants to Canada 7,540,825 Population growth over the past 10 years 30.1 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

22 Immigrants spreading out across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta British Columbia Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Immigrants , , , ,600 63,200 47,900 11,800 9,300 3,700 3,400 Percent Change from ,212,080 Total Canada Percent change: 14.8 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

23 Increased immigration from Syria, Iran and Philippines Number of Immigrants , Top Countries of Birth Percentage Change in Number of Immigrants, to Philippines 191,500 Syria India 169,300 Iran 56.4 China 139,800 Philippines 46.9 Iran 54,700 Nigeria 34.5 Pakistan 51,700 France 17.7 Syria 30,000 Pakistan 11.8 United States of America 40,000 India 9.7 France 26,500 China -7.5 United Kingdom 29,300 United States of America Nigeria 19,000 United Kingdom Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 23

24 immigrants increasingly speak English or French at home the longer they are in Canada Percent of Immigrants Who Speak English or French Most Often or Regularly at Home, 2016, Canada Total on top Speaks English or French regularly at home Speaks English or French most often at home All Immigrants Before Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

25 Millions Over 1 in 5 are members of a visible minority group Number and Proportion of Visible Minority Population in Canada, 1981 to Number 11.2 Percentage Actual 22.3 Projected Visible Minority Population 7,674,580 Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population Release, and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036 (reference scenario)

26 Visible minority population numbers 7.6 million Visible Minority Population, 2016, Canada Percent 2+ Generations, 2016, Canada South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese 1,924,600 1,577,100 1,198, , , , , , , , ,100 92,900 South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

27 Visible minority now a majority in Toronto CMA Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto 51 Ottawa - Gatineau 22 Vancouver 49 Windsor 20 Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg K - C - W Hamilton Regina Oshawa Saskatoon Montréal 23 Guelph 17 Canada 22 London 16 K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

28 Immigrants index below average on individual income, but second generation shows improvement Index of Median Individual Income, Population Aged 25-54, 2015, Canada (Total Population Aged =100) Not a visible minority Filipino Black Latin American Southeast Asian South Asian Chinese Japanese Arab Korean West Asian First Generation Index Chinese Japanese Not a visible minority Korean South Asian Filipino Arab Southeast Asian Black West Asian Latin American Second Generation Index Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Median income for total population $43,300

29 Canada s Indigenous population 29

30 Close to 1.7 million aboriginal peoples in Canada Percent and Population, Aboriginal, 2016, Canada First Nations (North American Indian) 977, Métis 587, Other 43,975 3 Inuk (Inuit) 65,025 4 Total Aboriginal Population 1,673,780 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

31 Aboriginal population increased by 20 percent Population Growth, Canada Population Growth, Aboriginal Population Total Population First Nations (North American Indian) Métis Inuk (Inuit) Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census and 2011 National Household Survey

32 Visible minority and aboriginal populations account for all of total population growth Population Growth , Canada Total population Visible minority population Aboriginal population -0.3 Rest of population Population (millions) Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

33 Nearly a quarter of Aboriginal population live in low-income Households Percent of Population Living in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada Percent of Population Living in Low-income Households by Age Group, 2015, Canada Aboriginal Non Aboriginal Age Groups Population excludes persons living on reserve or in the North Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

34 Many dwellings in need of major repair, especially on reserves and in Inuit communities Percent of Population Living in Dwellings in Need of Major Repair, 2016, Canada Aboriginal Non-aboriginal On reserve Off reserve First Nations Métis Inuit Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

35 Incomes increased over the decade but little change in low income 35

36 Resource-Rich provinces tend to have the highest incomes, led by Alberta Median Household Income ($), 2015, Canada Alberta Saskatchewan Ontario Canada British Columbia Manitoba Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia Quebec New Brunswick 93,800 75,400 74,300 70,300 70,000 68,100 67,300 61,200 60,800 59,800 59,300 $ Percentage Change (2015$) Saskatchewan Newfoundland and Labrador Alberta Manitoba British Columbia Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Canada Nova Scotia Quebec Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 36

37 Higher income increases for females, but gap remains Percentage Change in Median Individual Income, , Canada Males Females Males Females $40,782 $28, Median Income Canada (2015$) SK NL AB NS PE NB MB QC BC ON -2.4 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 37

38 Seniors spending power SOARS Population Growth, , Canada Aggregate Income Growth, , (2015$), Canada Total Ages Ages 55+ Total Ages Ages 55+ Source: Statistics Canada, Medium Population Projections 38

39 Little change in low-income except for seniors Percent of People in Low-Income Households (LIM-AT), 2016, Canada Total and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Note: 2015 Low-Income Threshold 1 person $22,133 2 persons $31,301 4 persons $44,266 39

40 Living arrangement of seniors have significant impact on their financial situation Median Income for Couples/Persons Aged 65 and Over, 2015$, Canada Percent of Population in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada 62, $ 28,400 8 Couple income* Living alone income Couples Living alone * At least one person is 65 or over ** Couples value is estimated Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census 40

41 Housing #EAUC2017

42 Seniors living alone pay the most in Shelter Costs Percent Homeowners, Canada Total and over Source: Statistics Canada, 2006,2011 and 2016 Census

43 much higher growth for high-rise apartments Growth in Number of Dwellings by Type, Canada Total Single-detached Apartment 5 or more storeys Other 751, , , ,900 Growth Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 43

44 Young and old most likely to live in condos Percent of Homeowners Living in Condominiums by Age Group, 2016, Canada 13.4 High-rise Other Total - all ages Age of primary household maintainer Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

45 Renters face Higher shelter costs Percent of Households Spending 30 or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Owners Renters All ages Ages Ages 65 + All ages Ages Ages 65 + Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 45

46 Lower income of seniors living alone means higher shelter costs Seniors Paying More than 30 of Income for Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Total Owners Renters Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census

47 Questions?

48 Thank You Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer #EAUC2017