ISSUES and CHALLENGES for the ASIA and PACIFIC REGION. by Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center

Transcription

1 ISSUES and CHALLENGES for the ASIA and PACIFIC REGION by Charles E. Morrison, East-West Center

2 East Asian Population People (millions) Year East-West Center, Future of Population East Asia S.E. Asia E

3 Fertility Decline Total Fertility Rate: Babies per Female East Asia Southeast Asia East-West Center, The Future of Population in Asia, 2002, p. 10.

4 Flight from Marriage: (Never Married Rates: Female, Age 35-39) 39) Indonesia Thailand S. Korea Japan Jakarta Seoul Hong Kong Bangkok Adapted from Gavin C. Jones, The Flight from Marriage in South-East and East Asia

5 Population Composition Pakistan, 2000 Japan, 2050 Pakistan, Pakistan, Source: Future of Population in Asia, East-West Center, 2002.

6 Growth of Elderly Percent of Population Over Age 75 India Indonesia Vietnam Thailand S. Korea Singapore Japan Source: East-West Center, Future of Population

7 Urban Populations: World Africa Asia Europe Northern America UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2006). World Urbanization Prospects

8 East Asian Urban Areas of over 10 Million Population 1950 Tokyo, 11.3 million 1975 Tokyo, 26.3 million Seoul-Inchon 12 million Shanghai, 11.4 million 2003 Tokyo, 35 million Seoul-Inchon 20 million Shanghai, 12.8 million Jakarta, 12.3 million Manila, 11.5 million Osaka-Kobe, 11.0 million Beijing 10.8 million, 2015 Tokyo, 36 million Seoul-Inchon, 22 million Jakarta, 18 million Manila, 15 million Shanghai, 15 million Beijing, 12 million Osaka-Kobe, 11.0 million Tianjin, 11 million Bangkok, 10 million Sources: Various, data should be taken as indicative of trends, definitions of urban boundaries may vary

9 Asia Pacific Disaster Map Shanghai Beijing Seoul Osaka Tokyo yo Manila Jakarta Source: Pacific Disaster Pacific Disaster Center Center

10 Global Growth: Lower and Middle Income Countries: Per capita annual GDP growth E Asia- Pacific S. Asia M. East and N. Africa Latin America Sub- Saharan Africa Source: World Bank, World Development Report, 2005, 2006, 2007

11 Poverty Estimates: Developing East Asia-Pacific Million people Less than $1/day Less than $2/day World Bank, 2006

12 Labor Productivity Growth WORLD: 10.9 percent Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa: -1.5 percent Middle East: 0.9 percent Latin America: 1.2 percent Industrialized economies: 14.9 percent Transition economies: 25.4 percent Southeast Asia: 21.6 percent South Asia: 37.9 percent East Asia: 75.0 percent International Labor Organization

13 Growth of Tertiary Enrollment (Enrollment Ratios, ) India Source: World Bank Indonesia China Malaysia Philippines Thailand Japan Korea USA

14 Education: Percent of Tertiary Age Population in Tertiary Institutions, Indonesia China Philippines Hong Kong Thailand Japan Female Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics Male

15 Challenges Imbalances Income Inequality Health Issues Resource Issues Security Issues Governance Issues

16 Asia Pacific Current Account Imbalances (US bn) East Asia US

17 China: Global Trade Surplus B illions U S $s Jan 2004 July 2005 Jan 2005 July 2006 Jan 2006 July 2007 Jan\

18 Gross Manufacturing Exports Percent of World Manufacturing Exports Japan China NICs ASEAN India Source: WTO Trade Statistics, WDI and Treasury, cited by John Edwards, HSBC, April 2007

19 Gini Co-efficients Brazil USA Mexico Japan China Brazil Mexico USA 0.2 China Japan Source: Based on World Bank, years approximate

20 Health Issues Traditional Health Risks New infectious diseases, including HIV/AIDS, avian flu, new strains of tuberculosis Chronic conditions and diseases associated with life style changes

21 Poultry Density Source: FAO, AGA Livestock Atlas Series

22 11-Year Year-Old Children s s Fitness Japan Seconds to Run 50 Meters Boys Girls 35 Average Soft-Ball Throw (Meters) Source: Japan Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, 2007

23 Children s s Leisure Activities Eight to Ten Years Olds in Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Bogor, and Manila Less than 1 in 4 children participate in sports, outdoor games or physical exercises daily Common leisure activities are playing computer games, reading, and watching tv Children have physical education lessons at school only 1 or twice a week Girls less active than boys at all ages Source: Asian Food Information Centre, Singapore

24 Global Prevalence of Obesity in Adult Males With examples of the top 5 Countries in each Region North America USA 31% Mexico 19% Canada (self report) 17% Guyana 14% Bahamas 14% % Obese 0-9.9% % 14.9% % 19.9% % 24.9% % 29.9% 30% South East Asia & Pacific Region Nauru 80% Tonga 47% Cook Island 41% French Polynesia 36% Samoa 33% With the limited data available, prevalence's are not age standardised. Self reported surveys may underestimate true prevalence. Sources and references are available from the IOTF. International Obesity TaskForce, London January 2007 Self Reported data

25 Prevalence of Diabetes: % increase 148% increase Millions people % India China Other Asia Source: Wild, S, Roglic G., Green, A., Sicree, R, and King, H. Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the Year 2000 and Projects for 2030, Diabetes Care, Vol. 27, Number 5, May Average global increase 114%.

26 Global Suicide Rates World Health Organization

27 Annual Renewable Water Supply Source:Liquid Assets, 2005, cited in RAND, One World, One Well

28 Water Problem: A Chinese Perspective China Daily cartoon, 14 November 2006

29 Regional Petroleum Deficits Millions of Barrels per day Europe N. America Asia-Pacific Adapted from Congressional Research Service

30 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Activities % Other 17% China 22% USA FSU 9% J Europe 5% 17% USA FSU Japan Europe China ROW IEA International Energy Annual E I A

31 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Per Capita GNI (ooos) Emissions in metric tons USA Japan Sing Korea Mal China VN World Bank GNI per capita Emissions per capita

32 Asian Air Pollution Success Stories Tokyo: has lower air pollution problems than American or European cities. Efficient transportation Bangkok: has reduced air pollution significantly by eliminating 2 stroke motorcycles Singapore: Strict controls, especially on automobiles