Republican National Convention 2020

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1 Republican National Convention 2020 Director: Sebastian Hughes Crisis Director: Graeme Cranston-Cuebas

2 Letter from the Under-Secretary General Hello Delegates, I am Jake Ferrara, and I am your Undersecretary General for Crisis Committees. For the past several months, the WMHSMUN team has been working tirelessly to create innovative crisis simulations for all of you. Your Crisis directors and dais were picked with immense care, and their work was cultivated over the last five months to produce this simulation. All of your directors are easily accessible via for any questions or comments. Committees require a position paper in most cases, and these should be about two pages. your director if you have any questions about this. It is my sincere hope that all of you leave this committee enriched with the gifts of lively debate, compromise, and well-earned tiredness. When I came here almost four years ago as a high school student, I remember leaving Williamsburg with a new passion for debate that was awoken by WMHSMUN. Four years later, I am here, returning this passion to you all. I ask only one thing, that you put all of yourself into your research and debate, so you can feel the same as I once did here years ago. Best of luck, and best wishes, Jake Ferrara WM 2020 Undersecretary General for Crisis Committees WMHSMUN XXXI

3 Letter from the Director Dear Delegates, Welcome to the Republican National Convention 2020 Committee, where you will be faced with shaping the future of the Republican Party. My name is Sebastian Hughes and I will be acting as your director over the course of WMHSMUN. Right now, I am in my third year at The College of William & Mary. I am very excited to see this committee tackle key issues the Republican party might face in the coming years. Like many, I watched the Republican primaries with a vast amount of intrigue. If anything can be said about Donald Trump that everyone can agree on, it is that his campaign was incredibly impressive in what it accomplished. What adds to my personal disbelief of the matter was that Republican leadership did not intend for Donald Trump to be their nominee, just as Democrats did not expect him to be their president. Because of this, I expect this committee to be equally as fascinating, as dealing with the aftermath of Trump s presidency and the need to secure another win in 2020 will be driving, sometimes conflicting, forces throughout committee sessions. Sincerely, Sebastian Hughes

4 Letter from the Crisis Director Dear Delegates, My name is Graeme Cranston-Cuebas and I will be your Crisis Director for the upcoming WMHSMUN RNC committee. Sebastian and I have been working for months to prepare a fantastic scenario that will test your skills as diplomats, as well as keep you engaged and participating in committee. I know that you all will surpass my wildest expectations with your ingenuity and out of the box thinking during our interactions. Although I am primarily a foreign relations student I am thrilled to be turning to domestic politics for this timely committee. One thing to keep in mind during session is that the discussion in the committee room is separate from crisis. If you have a great idea and present it in committee that is fantastic, however I may not know about it until the resolution is passed which might take a while. Please ask me questions, form your own conversation with crisis, and most importantly use your portfolio powers to the fullest! Every member of committee is there for a reason and has portfolio powers that are worked into the scenario. There is never a crisis that a combination of portfolio powers cannot solve. Counting down the days, Graeme

5 Committee Overview This committee will take place a week after the 2018 midterms, and it will end with the nomination of the 2020 candidate, whoever he or she may be, at the Republican National Convention in The failure of Republicans to deal with healthcare and many of Trump s questionable decisions are believed to be the key concerns that led to Republicans losing seats in Now the minority in the senate with 49 senators, compared to the 51 of the Democrats, Republicans barely cling to majority in the House. With this in mind, the committee will need to reevaluate how to approach the 2020 election. While it is incredibly unusual to have an incumbent president have to run against other candidates from the same party, Donald Trump s time in politics has been anything but usual. With approval ratings at record lows for the president and an image Trump has placed on the party that some Republicans take issue with, it will be up to this committee of Republican leadership to determine whether Donald Trump should be the nominee for the Republican party. There have been some successes, and several mistakes, that have happened in Trump s presidency that will make this a difficult decision, with lasting consequences, no matter what course of action the committee takes. The failure in 2016 for any traditional candidate to provide a message strong enough to defeat Donald Trump is also a factor that needs to be taken into account when reviewing the party platform, as failing to recognize what their constituents want will be costly. There is also the issues of the House and Senate races, which presents the potential to regain majority in the Senate, as well as lose majority in the House. This committee will start on November 8, 2018, the day after the 2018 midterms, and end with the announcement of the 2020 Republican nominee at the Republican National Convention. Democratic Candidates So far, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Senator Al Franken are the only Democrats to officially announce that they are running for president in 2020, with the former being the first to declare. Though both are promising candidates, there is fear that there will be a similar divide to that of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, which split the party in More candidates are expected to announce runs for the presidency in the coming weeks.

6 Republican Presidential Nominee Support Most United States citizens expected Hillary Clinton to win the presidency in Donald Trump was the most unconventional candidate running. However, he quickly gained support and, against over a dozen Republican candidates, won the nomination of the Republican party and went on to become the President of the United States. Many Republicans feel that Donald Trump misrepresents the core values of their party and the way he has handled the presidency made it more difficult for Republicans to achieve their goals. After losing the Senate, Republican leadership is beginning to consider supporting another candidate for the White House. However, Trump s base is strong and throwing support for another candidate could jeopardize more seats in Congress, and perhaps even weaken the Republican effort to keep the presidency. It will be up to this committee to determine the best course of action. The Wall Candidate Donald J. Trump launched his goal for the border wall between the United States and Mexico on June 16, According to Trump, he was going to build a great wall and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me and I ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words. However, Trump s plan for the wall evolved after he won the election, stating I want to get the wall started. I don t want to wait a year and a half until I make my deal with Mexico. They will reimburse us for the cost of the wall, whether it s a tax or whether it s a payment. Probably less likely that it s a payment. Still, Trump insisted that Mexico would eventually pay for the wall, tweeting that the then Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto should not come to a scheduled meeting if they were not going to pay for the wall, as well as presenting a 20% import tax as one option, Peña Nieto canceled his visit, stating Mexico does not believe in walls. I ve said time again; Mexico will not pay for any wall. The stopgap budget that was introduced in April 2017 to keep the government running included $1.5 billion dollars allocated to border security, but a compromise was made so that none of this would go towards construction of new barriers. Though President Trump continued to insist that the wall would be built, his 2018 budget proposal listed only $1.6 billion for the construction of the wall. This was eventually negotiated to 1.7 billion toward border security, which could go towards building new structures as deemed appropriate by the Department of Homeland Security. The budget passed on September 30th, By November 7, 2018, some physical structures have begun to be built in regions where the DoH has deemed security to be lacking. On January 20th, 2018, one year after his inauguration, Donald Trump tweeted If Nieto and the current Mexican administration won t pay for the wall, US/Mex rel. needs to change. This was followed by Perhaps a new Mexican president will properly respect American borders. MILLIONS still pouring over despite decrease since Obama. This statement is what is believed to have pushed Mexican citizen on an unstoppable path towards electing Andrés Manuel López Obrador to the presidency. Considered the most anti-american president in recent history, Lopez Obrador stated in his victory speech on July 2nd, 2018 that an era of disrespect from the United States is over. When asked about the proposed 20% tax on import, Lopez Obrador stated that he does not respond to empty threats. This statement allegedly sent President Trump into a fury and is supposedly considering the 20% tax, making a trade war with Mexico closer than ever. Middle East As a candidate, Donald Trump campaigned on the platform of a temporary Muslim ban to

7 protect the United States from terrorism. This later evolved into a travel ban from certain countries with high amounts of terrorism. These countries were later specified in an executive order on January 27th, 2017, prohibiting travel from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. However, the rollout of the order was deemed terrible and was immediately struck down by the courts. A revised order was introduced on March 6th, 2017, removing Iraq from the list. This order, however, was struck down. Finally, the Supreme Court allowed portions of the travel ban to go into effect, with minor exceptions allowing those with connections to the United States being allowed in. The travel ban was later ruled constitutional in October 2017, which followed Trump renewing the travel ban for an additional year. This renewal is set to end in December 2018, with Trump considering renewing it a second time. One of the more troubling aspects of Trumps presidency was the $110 billion-dollar arms deal with Saudi Arabia. Intelligence agencies have reported that these weapons have ended up in other countries, such as Iraq and Jordan. Trump, in turn, called the report fake news, with the Saudis being key allies in the fight against terrorism. However, a foreign trip to Saudi Arabia that was scheduled for February 2018 was subsequently cancelled. Education The appointment of Betsy Devos was met with large criticism by the left and some from the right. Many deemed her to be unqualified and only placed in the position due to her contributions to the Republican Party. This, combined with the 14% decrease in funding to the Department of Education that passed on the 2018 federal budget, along with major cuts to grants for teachers, after-school programs and aid to low-income students, caused major criticism of the Trump administration. In October of 2018, a statewide teacher walkout in Rhode Island drew national attention, but were subsequently criticized by President Trump for neglecting their students. Gun Laws Though President Trump s administration has been a consistent proponent of the Second Amendment, in September of 2018, President Trump formally asked congress to write into law a bill that restricts those on No-Fly Lists. Reports have circulated that the NRA has been putting extreme pressure on the GOP to make Trump go back on his request, or risk a decrease in backing. However, the administration appears to not be backing down, with Trump tweeting Some, less than smart, people think TERRORISTS should be able to buy guns. Terrible! Europe President Trump has been a fierce critic of European nations not paying their dues to the United States. This feeling began to be acted on when President Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, much to the dismay of the other European nations. Angela Merkel responded by saying that Europe can no longer count on the United States. Though many on the left were upset about the consequences this might have on the environment, others praised the decision as Trump getting the United States out of a bad deal. The pull out caused a domino effect, with 14 countries, including Russia and China, subsequently leaving the agreement. It has also circulated that France may leave the European Union, though they have refuted the claims. The distance from Europe has been fairly positive among Americans, with 59% supporting Trump s overall America-First agenda and his method of doing so. Syria The situation in Syria has only gotten worse, as reports of chemical weapons on civilians continue. Trump s actions towards Syria have been three Tomahawk strikes since the beginning of his presidency. While only Democrats want Trump to remove his ban on refugees to allow Syrians to get away from the

8 conflict, some Republicans, like Senator Rand Paul, claim that even these strikes go against Trump s promise of nonintervention in foreign issues. North Korea During the time Trump has been in office, North Korea has made much progress in their nuclear efforts. Several ballistic missile tests have occurred, with many succeeding. Though new sanctions were levied on North Korea by the United States in response, it has not deterred North Korea from continuing its pursuits. Though there has been much talk from the Trump administration of ending strategic patience, there has been little change to how the United States has handled the current situation when compared to previous administrations. Trump, himself, has repeatedly called out the Chinese for doing nothing to stop North Korea s nuclear progress. As of April 2018, it is now believed that North Korea has the capability to hit the United States mainland with a nuclear weapon. Economy The effect Trump has had on the economy is his biggest benefactor. The DOW has remained consistently high, compared to the previous administrations, and the unemployment rate has averaged 4.3 during the course of the presidency. The economy and employment are considered to be the biggest factors in terms of what drives voters to the polls, making an attempt to replace Donald Trump as the Republican nominee a risk to a backlash. Russia Seventeen intelligence agencies have come to the conclusion that Russia attempted to interfere in the 2016 election. President Trump has continuously expressed doubt towards these findings, claiming it could possibly have been China and that no foreign power influenced his win. Communications between the Trump campaign and Russian officials have fueled speculation that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to influence the election. These suspicions were aided by multiple contacts members of the Trump campaign had with Russians. After Jeff Sessions testified that he had no contacts with Russians, it was discovered that he had met with Sergey Kislyak as part of his duties as Senator from Alabama. This led to Sessions recusing himself from the investigation into Russian meddling into the election, which subsequently led to Robert Mueller heading a special counsel. The broad authority Mueller was given to look at his financials and the longevity of talks of collusion had on his agenda, led Trump to publicly attack Sessions for his recusal. Though Trump eventually stopped attacking him, after pushback by Republicans, Sessions was eventually fired by Trump in July Shortly after, Rudy Giuliani was named as Trump s nominee for replacement. Giuliani is currently going through his confirmation process, but there is bipartisan efforts to question Giuliani on whether or not he will fire Mueller if he is confirmed. Key Questions 1. Which is more of a risk to reelection: accepting or challenging Donald Trump s 2020 campaign? Is it worth the support the party is losing for that which they are gaining? 2. Who might be the best candidate to take Trump s place as the nominee? How can another candidate appeal to Trump s base? 3. Should Republicans confirm Giuliani as Attorney General? How should the issue of Russia be treated during the 2020 campaign? Party Platform The period after the 2016 election showed that Republicans were incredibly divided between those that were more moderate and those that were more conservative. This led to large failures in the keeping of major promises made to voters. It will be the committee s job to reform

9 the party and fix this divide. Healthcare After 7 years of campaigning on the repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act, Republicans have failed to deliver an alternative that can pass in both the House in the Senate. While the second bill put before the House made it to the Senate, the votes could not be rallied to secure a successful bill, despite republican control over congress and the executive branch. Thus, the Trump administration and many Republicans have decided to let the Affordable Care Act collapse on itself. Indeed, premiums have continued to skyrocket and citizens are faced with fewer options for coverage than in quite some time. Americans are divided on who is responsible, with many blaming Democrats for not working with Republicans, while others blame Republicans for being unable to lead. Deciding what to campaign on, in terms of Healthcare, will be a key decision for the 2020 election for the Republicans. cuts, rather than average civilians, like they were promised. Key Questions 1. How should Republicans approach healthcare in 2020? Will letting the Affordable Care Act fail play favorably for 2020 candidates? 2. With Republicans in Congress accomplishing relatively few of their promises to the American people, how can the party change that in the future? How can the divide between Republicans be healed? Should a side be chosen? 3. What is the best way to maintain and regain seat in the Senate with Trump being so unfavorable? Tax Reform With the failure to secure the repeal and replace of the Affordable Care Act, congress was left with the disheartening choice to move onto tax reform without reforming healthcare. Though they attempted to use the budget reconciliation process to only require a simple majority to pass tax reform legislation, Republicans were unable to come to a consensus, while also being revenue neutral. After months of attempting to devise a plan, the need to pass some form of legislation led to the passing of a tax cut, rather than a tax reform, to corporations through a sunset provision. This means that, for the next ten years, the tax rate on corporations will be 25%, but will go back to its prior rate of 35% at the end of the ten years. This was perceived by many to be a short-term tax cut which, while encouraging more investment in the United States, as opposed to foreign countries, would ultimately decrease federal revenue by over $900 billion. Many Republicans voters were upset that only corporations received such tax

Stateless Actors. Director: Penina Cohen Crisis Director: Connor Currie

Stateless Actors. Director: Penina Cohen Crisis Director: Connor Currie Stateless Actors Director: Penina Cohen Crisis Director: Connor Currie Letter from the Under-Secretary General Hello Delegates, I am Jake Ferrara, and I am your Undersecretary General for Crisis Committees.