US Midterm Elections And Their Potential Effects

Transcription

1 US Midterm Elections And Their Potential Effects Nasser Wannous

2 Introduction Midterm elections are held in the United States, or the US Congressional elections, in the mid-term of the president, which lasts four years, two years after he takes office. In the elections, members of parliament, who hold 435 seats, are renewed, and 35 seats for the 100-member Senate are being renewed. In addition to the election of the rulers of 36 states. The results of the US midterm elections on 6 th of November, as expected by most observers, with the victory of the representatives of the Democratic Party by a majority of seats in the parliament, while the Senate remained under the control of the Republican Party, which strengthened this control by winning with two additional seats. The question that arises after these results is to what extent will the Democrats' victory in the parliament will affect the President's program and policies that he promised his voters before his election in November 2016, both internally and externally? That's means how it will affect on issues such as the future of President Donald Trump, the reduction of immigration, the construction of the separation wall with Mexico, the growing conflict with Iran, investigations about the Russian intervention in the 2016 presidential elections, trade relations with China and Europe, The climate issue, and the so-called Middle East peace process? The Presidential Future of Trump: Perhaps the most important question about the impact of the election results on the inside of the US is whether there is a chance for President Donald Trump to run for the presidential

3 election in 2020 or to win. And therefore an opportunity to continue his political approach, or that it will turn into the socalled lame duck according to the American expression, that is to be bound by the parliament, which will hinder him to continue his policies, which has long been called muddled and agitated, waiting for the end of his mandate to get out of the presidency. Here, there are those who talk about why the last midterm elections are good for tramp to win the 2020 election and bad for losing those elections at the same time. They are good because they have shown that Trump's popular base, who is the populist president, is still strong, especially amid his Republican Party. The veteran politician Stuart Rottenberg says Trump knows how to make his supporters "enthusiastic, interested, and know how to take them out into squares and streets." His campaign helped at least to defeat three Democratic senators. Democrats failed in Ohio and Florida, the states that usually play a crucial role in any election, both presidential and semifinal, have lost. Nor have Democrats united behind one candidate. "They will have to have someone who can keep the Democrats together and raise the enthusiasm of white women in suburban and African-American communities at the same time," says Rottenberg. The reasons why these elections are bad for Trump are first that he lost the parliament. Here we go back to the political historian and professor at the University of Washington Alan Jay Lichtman, who set a model for predicting the presidential election depends on thirteen factors, one of them is whether the ruling party controls more seats in the House of Representatives than it has after the previous midterm elections. The loss of Republicans to the House of Representatives not only gives Trump zero in this category, but also leads to the loss of another

4 crucial factor, which is to remain unspoiled by the scandal. Lichtman continues to say that the new power of the Democrats to investigate Trump and his administration through the parliament committees they control on will mean that "scandals are likely to emerge" may resonate with voters in a way that has never happened before. The advisor to opinion polls in The Republican Party Dan Judy says that Trump's biggest problem, which was revealed by the midterm elections, is that Trump has done nothing to widen his coalition and remains unpopular among non-white voters and the white voters with university education, especially women, in urban and suburban: "according to his hard victory in 2016, the failure to expand the base of voters who support him will make his re-election efforts more difficult." While Brookings Institute researcher William Frey said, "White Republican support has clearly declined in this election, and it is not only that support of the white-educated Democratic women has increased dramatically, but the white working-class men didn't offer an excellent support for the Republicans who took Trump to win the Midwest in 2016". Investigation of the Russian intervention: Observers believe that the Democrats in the parliament are likely to open an investigation of the Intelligence Committee about the Russian intervention in the presidential election That helped Trump get to the presidency at the expense of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and begin to help the criminal investigation Robert Mueller, a private lawyer, in this case. The outgoing chairman of the Republican Committee and Trump's ally David Nunes blocked the democratic efforts to

5 investigate the case and closed it with strings that could have led to the truth. Nunes refused to exchange the information with Muller. But Nune's possible democratic alternative, is Adam Schiff, who promised to resume the commission's investigation and track new strings, such as trade links between Trump and Russia. However, the increase in the Republican majority in the Senate may encourage Trump to nominate a more extreme alternative to the Public Prosecution, after he was sacked Justice Minister Jeff Sessions the day after the elections and replaced him by Matthew Whitaker to get rid of Muller and to close the investigation file. Especially since Whitaker is known for his criticism of Muller. If this happens, some Democrats are expected to propose Moller's reappointment as an independent adviser to continue his investigation on behalf of the House of Representatives. In addition, a group of senior Republicans cautioned that Robert Mueller should continue his investigations about the Russian intervention. Sen. Susan Collins was one of the first Republicans to warn: "It is imperative that Trump's administration does not hinder Muller's investigations... the Private advisor Moller should be allowed to complete his work without interference. Migration and the border wall: The issue of immigration has been a major issue in the Trump political program over the past two years. Perhaps the worst decision he has taken on this issue was to prevent citizens of seven Muslim countries from entering the United States, a decision that has been widely criticized both inside and outside the United States. His dream of building a "big and beautiful wall" on the border with Mexico to prevent the immigrants from Latin American countries to inter US is now difficult to achieve

6 with the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives. Trump's warnings before weeks of the midterm elections about the threat posed by the convoy of immigrants from Central America to Mexico's border with the United States, "which includes a mix of criminals and unknown Middle Easterners." As he described them, some analysts like the presidential historian at Rice university Douglas Brinkley, see it as " A serious form of xenophobia for Trump, through which he aims only at electoral ends and ultimately has no connection to a real national security. " There is no more evident than the fact that Trump had forgotten the theme of this convoy after the election, and spoke of it only in one tweet. Contrary to Trump's policy, a number of Democratic Deputies said they would try "to restore protection to illegal immigrants and immigrants who arrived in the United States when they were children." Voters from both sides expressed their broad support for finding a way to achieve citizenship for those residents that Trump has used as a bargaining paper since he canceled the right to protect them in 2017 ". The victory of both the American of Palestinian origin, "Rachida Tlaib" with a seat in the House of Representatives for Michigan, and the American from Somali origin "Elhan Omar" won a seat in the House of Representatives of the fifth constituency in Minnesota and that will strengthen the general feeling in the United States that immigrants of Arab and Islamic origins can play important roles in American political life, and therefore will have positive repercussions on the decisions that can take about reducing immigration and its laws. The economy and relations with Europe and China: Some believe that the economic recovery at Trump's era under the Tax Reform Act, tax cuts and the recovery of the technology

7 market benefited only the wealthy and corporate owners. This prompted the president to make promises of economic reforms benefiting the middle class. But in return for this recovery there was a large deficit in the trade balance that reached unprecedented numbers. Restructuring economic relations with the allies, especially the Europeans, when Trump got back or increased the tariffs on imported goods, damaged the reputation of the United States and led to the loss of part of its global influence. He even introduced the United States into a trade war with China. Trump imposed customs duties on imports from China worth 250 billion $ to force Beijing to make concessions about a list of demands that would change the terms of trade between the two countries. China then responded by imposing import duties on US goods. On 16 th of November, the US president said that China had sent a list of things it was willing to do to resolve the trade tensions with the United States, and that its administration might not have to impose more tariffs, but said he was not yet satisfied with the Chinese offer. To what extent will this economic policy remain in the Trump era as the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives, which will be revealed in the coming days and months. The Middle East and North Korea: The US policy continues on various issues, and it is not necessary to wait until next January for Congress to start its new members until it is followed, for example, the Saudi war in Yemen. Where Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Senator Bob Cork told Reuters news agency that Congress may vote before the end of the year to stop supporting Saudi Arabia in its war against Yemen. Foreign Secretary Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Matisse have called for an end to the

8 Saudi war in Yemen in late October and to start political negotiations to end the ongoing conflict. On 14 th of November, the United States imposed economic sanctions on 17 Saudi officials for their role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But Congress is unhappy with the sanctions, with some members saying that the sanctions did not make the administration's position tough enough. Later, senators from the two parties Republican Party and The Democratic Party introduced a bill that, if it passed, the arms sales to Saudi Arabia would stop. As for the so-called peace process in the Middle East, the Congress with its Senate and parliament are in agreement with President Trump's policy of providing absolute support to the Israeli ally. Where none of the members of Congress objected to the transfer of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, despite the violation of all conventions and international norms and resolutions. The US administration is not in a hurry to continue the so-called Middle East peace process, as long as normalization moves between Israel and its neighbors at an accelerated steps. Therefore, we are not expected to see a breakthrough towards a settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, especially on its Palestinian side. The rest of the US foreign policy files, such as increased pressure on Iran, talks with North Korea and the climate, is likely that these elections have no major impact on them. summary: If the US congressional elections have a big impact on the president's decisions about the American internal situation, whether tax law, climate, health insurance, immigration and

9 building the wall with Mexico, Congress's influence on the president's foreign decisions may not have that great weight, especially that Congress and the administration of the president agree about most foreign issues, especially the so-called Middle East peace process, the increasing pressure on Iran, the talks with North Korea, and the trade relations with China and Europe. References: 1. Maureen Groppe: "Here's why the midterm elections were both good and bad for Donald Trump's re-election". USA TODAY. Published 5:14 PM EST Nov 12, Jon Swaine, Amanda Holpuch, Dominic Rushe, Oliver Milman and Adam Gabbatt: "What do midterms mean for climate change, the economy and other issues?". The Guardian. First published on Wed 7 Nov GMT. 3. Maggie Haberman and Mark Landler: "A Week After the Midterms, Trump Seems to Forget the Caravan". The New York Times, Nov Amanda Holpuch: "Immigration". The Guardian. First published on Wed 7 Nov GMT. 5. Reuters: "Trump: China wants a trade agreement, and the United States may not impose more tariffs." 16 th of November Patricia Zengerl and Stephen Callin: "Washington imposes sanctions related to the killing of Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia seeks to execute five accused." Reuters. 15 th of November 2018.