A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time

Transcription

1 A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time

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3 A Theory of Security Strategy for Our Time Defensive Realism Shiping Tang

4 A THEORY OF SECURITY STRATEGY FOR OUR TIME Copyright Shiping Tang, Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. First published in 2010 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN in the United States a division of St. Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Tang, Shiping. A theory of security strategy for our time : defensive realism / Shiping Tang. p. cm. 1. Security, International. 2. Realism Political aspects. 3. International relations Philosophy. I. Title. JZ5588.T dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Newgen Imaging Systems (P) Ltd., Chennai, India. First edition: March

5 To Herbert Butterfield, John Herz, and Arnold Wolfers, who founded this more optimistic strain of realism after one of the bloodiest centuries in human history To Robert Jervis, who provided the core intellectual foundation

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7 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface ix xi xiii Introduction 1 Part I Preparing the Ground One Clearing the Theoretical Underbrush 9 Two The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis 33 Three The Security Dilemma and War Revisited 73 Part II Strategic Choices Four The Operational Code of Defensive Realism 99 Five Reassurance: A Defensive Realism Theory of Cooperation-building 129 Part III Implications and Conclusions Six Recategorizing Realism Theories 165 In Lieu of Conclusion: Policy Implications 179 Appendix I: World War I and the Cold War Revisited 185 Appendix II: Liberals, Conservatives, Doves, and Hawks 189 Notes 193 Bibliography 227 Index 243

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9 Figures 2.1 The causal link from anarchy to the security dilemma and war Conflict of interest and the security dilemma The continuum: From a security dilemma to a spiral Realism s ladder of strategies Realism s ladder of alliance strategies Trust versus mistrust 132

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11 Tables 1.1 Political realism and realisms Dichotomies for labeling the two types of states The security dilemma according to Butterfield, Herz, and Jervis Common errors about the security dilemma State behaviors in war and peace: Offensive realism versus defensive realism The general operational codes of the three approaches at a glance Types of response to a reassurance attempt Forms of reassurance attempt Post-Waltz realism theories at different levels of analysis 170

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13 Preface In 2002, I realized that debates among the three grand theories of international relations or IR namely, offensive realism, defensive realism, and neoliberalism cannot be resolved because they have relied on a non- evolutionary approach toward IR and human history in general. Yet the system known as international politics (as part of human society) has always been an evolutionary system. As such, only a social evolutionary approach can understand the evolution of the system adequately, and nonevolutionary theories are inherently incapable for the task. Since 2002, I have set out to develop a social evolutionary interpretation of the macro-history and grand theories of international politics, which I hope to eventually publish as a separate book, and I have sketched out some of the basic ideas in an article (Tang 2009b). As I began to advance a social evolutionary interpretation of international politics, however, another unhappy reality became evident to me. Among the three grand theories of international politics, only John Mearsheimer has bothered to develop something close to a coherent statement for offensive realism. In contrast, both defensive realism and neoliberalism lack such a coherent statement. This lack of coherent statement poses a major obstacle for my developing a social evolutionary interpretation of international politics. I cannot depict the different stages of international politics with offensive realism, defensive realism, or neoliberalism by simply relying upon existing literature. To advance a social evolutionary interpretation of international politics, I have to first make clear what constitutes offensive realism, defensive realism, and neoliberalism, and only thereafter can I employ them to depict an offensive realism world, a defensive realism world, and a neoliberalism world in international politics. Because my evolutionary interpretation of international politics first dealt with the evolution from a paradise-like anarchy to an offensive realism world and then from an offensive realism world to a defensive realism world, and also because Mearsheimer has provided a decent statement for offensive realism, I have decided to formulate a coherent statement for defensive realism first. This book is the result of such an effort.

14 xiv / preface Bob Powell has to be the first individual for me to thank. He was the one most responsible for introducing me to and getting me hooked with those opaque theories of international politics. Bob has been extremely demanding on making assumptions explicit, drawing rigorous deduction, and being precise with elaboration. While I am sure that Bob will still be somewhat disappointed with this book, I hope he at least finds some comfort in the fact that I have been trying hard. The second individual I need to thank is Bob Jervis. I sent him the first as I was just beginning to appreciate his enormous stature in the field, and the flow of s between the two of us has never ceased since then. I hope this book will somewhat convince him that he did not waste too much of his precious time on somebody whom he only came to meet after almost ten years of ing. For this book, Bob has provided not only initial encouragement but also detailed comments on chapters 1, 2, and 5. I next thank Ned Lebow, who has been extremely generous with his time, providing timely insights, criticisms, and advice while finishing his own 762-page book. The following individuals some of whom I have yet to meet have made available their time and provided expertise in answering my queries and commenting on my work over the years. They are: Amitav Acharya, Rajesh Basrur, Emrys Chew, Tom Christensen, Keith Clemenger, Alan Collins, Taylor Fravel, Mike Glosny, Avery Goldstein, Peter Gries, Richard Herrmann, S.P. Harish, Andy Kydd, Christopher Layne, Jeff Legro, Gerald Geunwook Lee, Jon Mercer, Bob Ross, Matthew Rudolph, David Rousseau, Randy Schweller, Alexander Vuving, and Alex Wendt. Let me also take this opportunity to express my gratitude to the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies (IAPS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, and the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, with special thanks to Director Zhang Yunling of IAPS, and Dean Barry Desker of RSIS. Under their able leadership, these two institutions provided me with a stimulating working environment. Chong Yee Ming and Lai Foong Yee at RSIS library provided wonderful logistical support in finding and borrowing books from various libraries, often within very short notice. Beatrice Bieger and Yan Hong provided excellent research assistance during the finishing stage of this book. My gratitude also goes to four of my special friends: Tao Cui, Hongmei Li, Honglin Li, and Yu Zhang. Their unflinching faith in me has always been an inspiration and an extremely important source of support, encouragement, and understanding. A shorter version of chapter 2 appeared in Security Studies, 18 (3). I thank the anonymous reviewers and the two editors of the journal (Michael

15 preface / xv Desch and William Wohlforth) for their perceptive criticisms and editing. I also thank Taylor and Francis for permitting the use of the published material. My deepest gratitude goes to my extended family. My parents not only endowed me with the stamina for toughening it out but also forgave me for spending so little time with them over the years. My wife and my parentsin-law have shouldered most of the burden of raising my little boy (now six years old). And finally I thank my little boy for being so understanding, I have spent so little time in the past couple years with him that when I try to play with him for a few minutes he gets so excited. This book can only repay part of the debt that I owe all of you.