India, China and Globalization

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1 India, China and Globalization

2 Also by Piya Mahtaney THE ECONOMIC CON GAME: Development Fact or Fiction? GLOBALIZATION: Con Game or Reality? THE CONTEMPORARY RELEVANCE OF KANTILYA S ARTHASHASTRA (co-author) This book is dedicated to my mother Kunti for her unstinted support

3 India, China and Globalization The Emerging Superpowers and the Future of Economic Development Piya Mahtaney

4 Piya Mahtaney 2007 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2007 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y Companies and representatives throughout the world PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mahtaney, Piya. India, China and globalization : the emerging superpowers and the future of economic development / by Piya Mahtaney. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. 1. India Economic policy. 2. India Foreign economic relations. 3. China Economic policy. 4. China Foreign economic relations. 5. Globalisation Economic aspects. I. Title. HC435.3.M dc

5 Contents List of Tables, Figures and Boxes ix 1 The New Age Paradox 1 The new age paradox: inevitability and implications 1 The way ahead 8 PART I The Rising Superpowers: Issues, Implications and the Future Introduction to Part I 14 2 India s Story: As it Rolls On 17 3 India: Her Tryst with Globalization 18 The turning point 18 Role of FDI in the Indian economy 24 Liberalization and the dynamics of economic progress 27 4 Economic Reform: Moving Beyond Liberalization 30 Sustainable growth and economic reform 31 The political economy of underdevelopment: its ramifications 32 Infrastructure provision and human capital formation: a story of unaffordable paucity 34 Privatization: an overview of its impact in India 41 Conclusion 48 Appendix 50 5 India: Unleashing Opportunity Creation 51 Introduction 51 Growth creation and slackened employment growth in the Indian economy: an analysis 53 The impact of liberalization on the manufacturing sector in India: trends in productivity, output expansion and employment creation 56 Conclusion 61 v

6 vi Contents 6 A Multisectoral Pattern of Economic Growth: Important Issues 63 The skill development paradigm 69 7 India s Economic Ascent: Insights and Issues 72 8 China: The Emerging Superpower 82 9 China: Its Ascent as an Economic Powerhouse 83 Economic liberalization 86 Conclusion 94 Appendix State-owned Enterprise Restructuring in China: Issues and Challenges 97 The impact of enterprise restructuring 100 The impact of financial-sector reform in China: issues and concerns 108 Conclusion 114 Appendix Economic Reform in China: The Ensuing Phase 116 The underpinnings of China s present growth patterns: sustainability issues and imperatives 118 Poverty reduction in China 122 Conclusion Human Capital Formation: Trends, Implications and Future Prospects in China 131 Health care reform in China: was it an instrument of inequity? 132 The link between human capital formation and technological advancement 134 Conclusion 138 Appendix China s Foreign Direct Investment Story: An Evaluation 141 China s accession to the WTO 141 Broad trends in foreign investment 144 Broad trends in China s trade 146 Evaluating China s FDI export model 147 Protectionism: its impact on technological upgrading 151 The trickle-down effect of technology transfer 154 Conclusion China s Economic Experience: Insights, Lessons and a Perspective 159 Reinventing neo-liberalism 160

7 Contents vii Economic transformation and turnaround: beyond structural adjustment 165 Conclusion 168 Appendix: fundamental lessons, in a nutshell When Elephants Walk and Dragons Dance: A Comparison between the Indian and Chinese Economies 170 An overview of recent history: India and China 172 Liberalization: the initial stage 173 Liberalization: India and China s variant 178 Present reform imperatives in India and China: a comparison 182 Conclusion 185 PART II Globalization: A Process of Incomplete Economic Integration Introduction to Part II Globalization: Vision and Reality 191 Economic history: lessons in restrospect 192 Globalization and economic integration: the dichotomy 197 Financial and trade liberalization: an overview of its impact 197 Trade liberalization: is it about free or fettered trade? 201 Conclusion 204 Appendix Revisiting the East Asian Miracle 209 Analysis 211 Comparisons: East Asia and Africa 220 Conclusion The Stilettoization of Economic Progress 231 The political economy of underdevelopment: a macroview 232 Economic integration: altering its partial approach 241 Conclusion 244 PART III Bridging the Gap between Growth and Development: Evolving a Paradigm Introduction to Part III The Production Function of Development 249 The nature of economic growth 249

8 viii Contents 20 The Development Paradigm: Its Evolution and Importance 256 Evolution of the development paradigm 256 The curative: a transition from resource mobilization to resource management 269 Singapore: exemplifying EEM 271 Reform: it cannot cease 272 Appendix 276 Bibliography 277 Index 289

9 List of Tables, Figures and Boxes Tables 1.1 Growth in GDP (%) Population living below the poverty line 6 I.1 Rising significance of China and India in the global economy Basic trends in growth rates (%) Sectoral real GDP growth rates (%) at factor cost (at prices) Economic growth rates in Indian states, Trends in public expenditure and infant mortality in South Asian countries Privatizations with strategic partners in India, Savings and Investment in the Indian economy (%) Gross domestic saving and investment Trend growth rate in employment (%) Total factor productivity growth in Indian manufacturing Annual growth rate in agriculture and GDP China s economic growth rates ( ) (%) China s GDP growth (2002 6) (%) Estimated real unemployment figures in China s urban areas (million) Employment in terms of ownership pattern (%) Non-performing loan ratios of the Big Four National R&D statistics R&D as a percentage of GDP by country National Science and technology personnel, (in millions) Share of foreign direct investment in total fixed investment (%) China: increasing trade/gdp ratio Top five US imports from China (in billions and % change) Top five US exports to China (in billions and % change) China s top five trading partners during 2004 (in billions) Enrolment ratio (%) in China and India (2002 3) 177 ix

10 x List of Tables and Figures 15.2 Contribution of consumption, investment and trade to GDP growth in China and India (%) Exports to the world from East Asia (US$ billions) Economic growth rates in East and South-East Asia (per cent) Ratio of foreign direct inflows to gross fixed capital (%) Average annual GDP growth in Africa The story of income divergence annual average compound growth rates of per capita GDP % Decomposition of international inequality by region (2000) 236 Figures 6.1 A diagrammatic depiction of the skill development paradigm External financing includes in its ambit overseas development assistance, various forms of aid and foreign investment The development paradigm 265 Boxes 1.1 Scorecard on development: some facts Emerging economic powers Broad trends in the manufacturing sector China s market: its potential some indicators Cities and regions with SEZ status Easing the controls on the private sector Increasing income and non-income inequality in China A.1 Excerpts from the WTO Ministerial Declaration (2004) Industrial Policy: choice of sectors Trends in inequality 237

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