Elections 101 Part IV

Transcription

1 Electins 101 Part IV T be rbbed and betrayed by a fiendish undergrund cnspiracy r by the earthly agents f Satan is at least a rmantic srt f plight. It suggests at least a grand Hllywd-ready cnfrntatin between gd and evil. But t be cldly ripped ff ver and ver again by a bunch f bldless, secnd-rate schmes, schmes yu chse, yu elected, is nt smething anyne will take much pleasure in bragging abut. Matt Taibbi

2 The Electral Evlutin f the Cngress Cngress has changed significantly since the Funder s cnceptin f it. Three-furths f all party identifiers vte fr the candidate f their party. Lyalty vting drpped smewhat in the 1960s and 1970s. As it drpped, party affiliatins weakened and vters became mre available and thus susceptible t ther srts f appeals. Tday things are different: prfessinal / career legislature mst f the mney fr Cngressinal candidates cmes frm PACs

3 The Electral Evlutin f the Cngress Cngress became a career in the 20 th century.

4 The Electral Evlutin f the Cngress Tday s legislatrs are very electrally aware. Anticipate shifts in cnstituents idelgical preferences and adjust their views t avid electral punishment at the plls. Often use gvernmental prgrams t prvide vters with additinal, mre persnal reasns t supprt them. Often run fr Cngress by running against it. Members f the Huse and Senate can say r write anything they like withut fear f being sued r prsecuted s lng as what they say is related t the legislative prcess.

5 The Electral Evlutin f the Cngress Each member f Cngress has: a Washingtn ffice with parking and ne r mre district ffices, including furnishing allwance a large staff... A typical Huse member emplys 18 persnal staff assistants (mre than 40% in district). This has risen significantly ver time. use f the frank (free use f the US mail) travel subsidies, free air fare, free airprt parking [abve is in additin t persnal things such as great salary, allwance, relaxed insider trading rules, subsidized health care, retirement and scial security, death benefits, a lt f vacatin days, saln and barbershp, dining rm and gym (with pl, sauna, steam rm, and paddleball and basketball curts)]

6 The Cngressinal Nminatin Prcess Cngressinal nminatin prcess is much simpler than Presidential prcess. Mst states chse their candidates in ne primary prir t the general electin. Filing dates may vary. Hardest fught primaries ccur when there is an pen seat. OPEN SEAT pen seat: a Huse r Senate race with n incumbent (the existing hlder f a plitical ffice) usually because f death r retirement

7 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Differ frm presidential electins. Cngressinal candidates tend t labr in bscurity. Vast majrity f candidates are little-knwn state legislatrs. Generally, lesser knwn candidates receive little media attentin. Name recgnitin is ften the mst imprtant battle f the campaign. Members f Cngress are nly cllectively respnsible fr the state f the natin, while the President is cnsidered individually respnsible.

8 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Because a Senate seat is s cveted, cmpetitin is fierce and a race csts millins f dllars. Senate incumbents usually win but they d lse mre frequently than Huse incumbents. Senate electins differ frm Huse electins in party cmpetitin: Parties cmpete mre evenly in state-wide Senate races than in smaller Huse districts.

9 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Senate electins differ frm Huse electins in uncntrlled infrmatin: Receive far mre psitive and negative media cverage than Huse members. better challengers: Higher status than Huse and fewer seats s have mre higher-quality challengers (mre plitically experienced, better knwn and liked, have mre mney). the ambitins f Senatrs: Desire t be president requires them t take psitins n larger issues t build their credibility as cntenders. Such issues are cntrversial, may ffend cnstituents and they may be accused f neglecting their state.

10 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Every tw years, Americans elect all members f the US Huse f Representatives t tw-year terms and abut ne-third f their US senatrs, wh serve six-year staggered terms. Thse electins in which the president is nt als elected are called midterm electins. S named because they are midway thrugh the president s furyear term. Vters als select fficials t state and lcal gvernment ffices in thse electins.

11 Midterm Cngressinal Electins President s party usually lses seats in midterm electins. Tendency fr vters t punish the president s party mre severely in the sixth year f an eight-year presidency. retrspective vting Senate electins less vulnerable t the six-year itch. There are exceptins. GW Bush picked up seats in the Huse and Senate in 2002, his first midterm electin.

12 Midterm Cngressinal Electins seats lst by the President s party in midterm electins

13 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Thrughut mst f US histry, cngressinal electins were partycentered. Because mst vters had lng-term lyalties tward ne plitical party r the ther, they tended t cast their vtes alng party lines. regular party vting: Members f Cngress were ften reelected, smetimes fr decades, because a majrity f their cnstituents supprted their party. Their effrts as individual incumbents ften nly marginally added t r subtracted frm their supprt. candidate-centered vting: In mre recent years, candidates' persnalities and issues have emerged as frces that add t the impact f party lyalties. The ability f members f Cngress t distance themselves frm party and presidential psitins makes them less subject t natinal frces. Cattails (psitive electral effect f a ppular presidential candidate n Cngressinal candidates f the party) have declined.

14 Incumbency Advantage Candidate-centered vting is a majr advantage t incumbent members f Cngress. Cngressinal electins are nt just candidate-centered but incumbent-centered as well. receive far mre expsure n televisin and in newspapers than thse challenging them able t raise far greater sums f mney with which t campaign ability t make themselves ppular with the vters in their district and s insulate themselves frm ebb and flw f ppularity f regular party vting and frm challengers

15 Incumbency Advantage sphmre surge: increase in vter supprt that a member f the Huse receives in his r her first bid fr reelectin incumbency advantage: electral advantage a candidate enjys by virtue f being an incumbent, ver and abve his r her persnal and plitical characteristics name recgnitin cmmittee assignments campaign cntributins resurces f ffice Electins fr Cngress have becme increasingly expensive. The average ttal spent by Huse candidates was almst $518,000 in The average Senatrial candidate spent ver $2 millin.

16 Incumbency Advantage The percentage f incumbents wh win reelectin after seeking it in the US Huse f Representatives has been ver 80% fr mre than 50 years, and is ften ver 90%. Shifts in Cngressinal districts due t reapprtinment r ther lnger term factrs usually make it mre likely fr an incumbent t win re-electin ver time. safe seat: a cngressinal district certain t vte fr the candidate f ne party

17 Incumbency Advantage Challengers face challenges. They are nt incumbents. lw visibility The gap between incumbent and challenger spending has widened but even if spending disparities were wiped ut vernight, incumbents wuld still d very well. When incumbents lse it is generally due t: redistricting / gerrymandering scandals cattails the scare-ff factr

18 Incumbency Advantage US Huse incumbents re-elected,

19 Incumbency Advantage The advantage f incumbency surged in the mid-1960s and peaked in the mid-1980s.

20 Incumbency Advantage Representatives are re-elected mre ften than Senatrs.

21 Incumbent Respnsiveness One reasn fr incumbents re-electin success is that they are extremely sensitive t the wishes f their cnstituents. have access t mre infrmatin abut their cnstituents than previusly spend time in hme districts have access t survey data wrk hard t help cnstituents fewer cnstraints n acting t serve cnstituents generally nt punished fr vtes by party if party and cnstituency cnflict

22 Incumbent Respnsiveness Representatives engage in cnstituency service. district service: effrt by members f Cngress t secure federal funding fr their districts casewrk: help cnstituents when they have difficulties with federal agencies

23 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins, the 1990s Cngressinal stagnatin: thery that Cngress has became stagnant thrugh the cntinuus re-electin f the majrity f incumbents, preserving the status qu 1994 electins challenged the insulatin thery: Three dzen incumbents fell and Republicans gained 52 seats in the Huse, taking cntrl fr the first time in 40 years. Electin results suggested a natinal tide swept aside incumbency t sme degree. But still 84% f incumbent Demcrats were re-elected. 1998: Demcrats gained 5 seats. First time since 1934 the president s party gained in the mid-term electin. All-time recrd incumbent re-electin rate f 98.5%.

24 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins, the 2000s The Republicans retained their Cngressinal majrities in the 2000 electins, but barely. Republican Huse majrity by 5 seats, Senate an exact tie and 2004: Vters had natinal issues in mind. Republicans gained seats in the Huse and Senate despite hlding the White Huse midterms: Demcrats regained Huse, cntrlled Senate by a slim margin. Overall, natinal frces seem t have mre impact n Cngressinal electins than they did in the 1970s and 1980s.

25 Cntemprary Cngressinal Electins Evidence suggests that Cngressinal electins are mre natinalized tday pssibly due t mre unified, and mre distinct, plitical parties. Increase in issue advcacy in natinal electins due t independent spending, especially by 527s. Psitive effect Campaigns in which parties and natinal interest grups actively participate will be mre issueriented. May help balance dds between incumbents and challengers.

26 D Cngressinal electins prduce a representative bdy? Members are highly qualified: Mst are hard-wrking, well educated, bright and interested in public plicy. less crrupt than in the past Cngress is ften thught f as a representative bdy that des nt mirrr the diversity fund in the cuntry. verwhelmingly made up f white, male prfessinals Can these individuals be respnsive t the needs and aspiratins f wmen and minrities?

27 D Cngressinal electins prduce a representative bdy? Single-member, simple plurality (SMSP) and winner-take-all electral systems are nt designed t prduce a descriptively representative legislative bdy. SMSP and winner-take-all electral systems put all minrities, racial r therwise, at a disadvantage. Even if yu win 49% f the vte yu win nthing. Incumbents and existing parties make rules t perpetuate their pwer Fewer females and minrities run and fewer parties flurish Lack f vter supprt discurages female and minrity candidates and frmatin f minr parties Vters chse t nt supprt parties r candidates that they dn t view as viable

28 Wmen US ranks near the bttm amng wrld demcracies in the prprtin f wmen in the lwer chamber f the natinal legislature. Reasns? The legacy f gender discriminatin is nt a majr reasn. Scietal prejudice against wmen serving in public ffice is lw and has been diminishing, but there is still gender discriminatin. The electral system cntributes t the slw rate f prgress. Wmen d better in prprtinal electral systems.

29 Minrities blc vting: vting in which nearly all members f an ethnic r racial grup vte fr the same candidate r party The plitical pipeline fr minrities is slim. Histrical tendency in US is tward racially plarized vting. Redistricting is ne methd used t increase the representatin f minrities in Cngress. creatin f majrity-minrity districts (affirmative actin redistricting): districts in which a minrity grup is the numerical majrity very cntrversial Shaw v. Ren (1993) majrity-minrity districting has limits pushed by Republicans in the 1990s

30 Female and Minrity Members f Cngress

31 Reapprtinment and Redistricting Hw are the cnstituencies that are represented in Cngress determined? Senate: representatin simple and never changes Cnstitutin gives every state tw senatrs. Huse: mre cmplex Census is taken every 10 years. Afterwards, the 435 seats in the Huse are apprtined amng the states accrding t their ppulatins. This is called reapprtinment.

32 Reapprtinment and Redistricting redistricting: drawing new bundaries f Cngressinal districts, usually after the decennial census When the number f seats a state has changes r when a state s ppulatin redistributes, it must redraw the bundaries fr thse seats districts. ne persn, ne vte principle: Districts were nce varied in ppulatin size, but Wesberry v. Sanders (1964) required they must be f nearly equal ppulatin. gerrymandering: drawing the lines f Cngressinal districts in rder t cnfer an advantage n sme partisan r plitical interest

33 Reapprtinment and Redistricting Tw drawings ne a cartn, the ther real shw the bizarre gegraphic cntrtins resulting frm gerrymandering.

34 Gerrymandering Let s lk at the prcess f gerrymandering when redistricting at the city cuncil level. It s exactly the same at the Cngressinal district level (r anywhere in between) but it s a little easier t understand at a smaller level. We have an imaginary city, with a black neighbrhd at its center. Assume a high degree f residential segregatin. Black Neighbrhd Surrunding White Neighbrhd

35 Gerrymandering Black Neighbrhd Surrunding White Neighbrhd Scenari 1: Old-Fashined gerrymandering was meant t insure that minrity grups were underrepresented amng elected fficials. Dtted lines represent cuncil district bundaries. The city is 30% black. All 10 electral districts have a majrity f whites. Seven f the districts have a substantial black electrate, 3 districts are all white. The purpse f ld-fashined gerrymandering was t divide the minrity neighbrhd int several districts s that the minrity grup (in this case blacks) wuld be a minrity in every district. Assuming whites are unwilling t vte fr a black candidate, the result f the electin is: City Cuncil (0% black): 10 whites 0 blacks Old-fashined gerrymandering, the kind that predated the Vting Rights Act f 1965, was generally designed t make sure that racial minrities were underrepresented amng elected fficials.

36 Gerrymandering Black Neighbrhd 10 Surrunding White Neighbrhd Scenari 2: Old-Fashined gerrymandering, mdified. Dtted lines represent cuncil district bundaries. The city is 30% black. The first electral district is all black, electral districts 2-5 have a substantial minrity f black vters, districts 6-10 are all white. Assuming whites are unwilling t vte fr a black candidate, the result f the electin is: City Cuncil (10% black): 9 whites 1 black This picture mre clsely represents the pre-vting Rights Act reality in the Nrth. Cities like Chicag had black elected fficials, and a black electral plitical machine that was subrdinate t the larger white plitical machine. See : Hirsch, Arnld R Making the Secnd Ghett. Cambridge University Press Wilsn, James Q Negr Plitics. Free Press.

37 Gerrymandering 1 Black Neighbrhd Surrunding White Neighbrhd 6 Scenari 3: Pst Vting Rights Act Reverse Gerrymandering. Dtted lines represent cuncil district bundaries. The city is 30% black. Electral districts 1-3 are 100% black. Districts 4-10 are 100% white. The result f the electin is: City Cuncil (30% black): 7 whites 3 blacks Pst Vting Rights Act reverse gerrymandering has sharply increased the number f black elected fficials, but at a cst. Remaining white elected fficials have n black cnstituency t answer t. Withut the mderating influence f minrity vters in white districts, the plitics f the cuncil becmes even mre racially plarized. And since black elected fficials are still in the minrity, blacks may find their plitical aspiratins even mre frustrated than befre. Ultimately, residential segregatin separates the plitical frtunes f the segregated grups in ways that are usually disadvantageus fr the minrity.

38 Gerrymandering An Example f pst Vting Rights Act reverse gerrymandering: Illinis 4 th Cngressinal district, which includes the histrically Puert Rican Lgan Square, and the histrically Mexican Suth Side neighbrhds f Pilsen and Little Village (the Lwer West Side n the Chicag neighbrhd map). In rder t cnnect these tw Latin neighbrhds and create a single cngressinal district withut disturbing the cntiguity f mstly black cngressinal districts in between, the nrth and suth neighbrhds had t be cnnected with a miles lng crridr that runs thrugh parks and cemeteries, all the way t the edge f Ck Cunty n the west.

39 Mney and Electins US plitical campaigns cst enrmus amunts f mney. The surce f campaign funds is far mre prblematic fr demcracy than the cst f electins. Des mney talk? rle in nminatin prcess rle in plicy frmatin special interests f dnrs result: plitical inequality

40 Mney and Electins

41 Mney and Electins Plitical mney is regulated by the federal gvernment (FECA 1971). This mney can cme frm: individuals plitical actin cmmittees plitical parties member-t-candidate cntributins candidates persnal funds public funds independent expenditures

42 Mney and Electins

43 Mney and Electins 1990s: rise f sft mney (mney cntributed by interest grups, labr unins and dnrs that was nt subject t federal regulatin because it was given t party cmmittees, nt t the candidates) 2004: sft mney given t natinal party cmmittees banned but culd still be given t lcal r state cmmittees Independent spending by grups separate frm but aligned with parties increased. plitical actin cmmittee (PAC): rganizatin that pls campaign cntributins frm members and dnates thse funds t campaign fr r against candidates, ballt initiatives r legislatin... dnatins t and expenditures by PACs are limited by law

44 Mney and Electins Super PAC: may engage in unlimited plitical spending independently f the campaigns... Unlike traditinal PACs, can raise funds frm individuals, crpratins, unins and ther grups withut any legal limit n dnatin size. 527: tax-exempt rganizatin created primarily t influence the selectin, nminatin, electin, appintment r defeat f candidates t federal, state r lcal public ffice 527 lphle: There are n cntributin r spending limits impsed n 527s. They must register with the IRS, publicly disclse their dnrs and file peridic reprts f cntributins and expenditures. used t raise mney t spend n issue advcacy and vter mbilizatin... may nt expressly advcate fr specific candidates r crdinate with any candidate s campaign and s are nt regulated under state r federal campaign finance laws

45 Mney and Electins

46 Mney and Electins In 2014, three crprate PACs dnated a whpping $7.5 millin directly t cngressinal candidates, drpping checks in virtually every race fr the Huse f Representatives. Businesses with the largest crprate PACs als happen t be sme f the wrst tax ddgers in the United States. Crpratins with high-dllar PACs als have highdllar defense cntracts.

47 Mney and Electins The Crprate PAC Map shws which crprate PAC makes the mst direct cntributins t Cngressinal candidates state-by-state. The Supreme Curt s decisin in Citizens United made it legal fr crpratins t take unlimited funds directly frm their treasury fr plitical spending. Channeled thrugh utside grups, thse cntributins ften g undisclsed and are nt represented here.

48 Mney and Electins

49 Mney and Electins an example f Cngressinal PAC spending paired with Cngressinal activity n issues f interest

50 Mney and Electins Are PACs gd r bad fr the prcess? PACs are the embdiment f special interests that use their cntributins t buy the vtes f legislatrs. But the evidence is mixed. The less affluent and minrity members f ur sciety d nt enjy equal access t these plitical rganizatins. Cnsequently, they d nt enjy equal access t their representatives. A Guide t Plitical Mney

51 Mney and Electins The internet has the ptential t alter the way mney is raised fr campaigns. Prmises headaches fr FEC Business links with campaign link? Are these in-kind cntributins? Yes Can yu match internet funds with public funds during the presidential nminatin campaign? N

52 Mney and Electins McCnnell v FEC (2003): cncluded that the gvernment s interest in preventing plitical party crruptin verrides the free speech rights t which the parties wuld therwise be entitled... Since that time, hwever, SCOTUS has ruled in favr f the free speech rights f PACs, Super PACs and 527s in case after case. Strategies used t refrm campaign finance limitatins n giving, receiving and spending plitical mney disclsure laws gvernmental subsidies

53 Mney and Electins Cntinuing Prblems with Campaign Finance: rising csts f campaigns declining cmpetitin increasing dependence n PACs and wealthy dnrs

54 Refrming the Electral Prcess fcus n the Electral Cllege fcus n campaign finance ther areas nminatins reginal primaries internet vting standardizing recunts ballt refrm

55 The End