JHU/APL Rethinking Seminar Series Rethinking Future Environments and Strategic Challenges.

Transcription

1 JHU/APL Rethinking Seminar Series Rethinking Future Envirnments and Strategic Challenges 19 December 2017 Mr. Dean Cheng The Heritage Fundatin Evlving Chinese Views f Infrmatin and Security Ntes: 1. Belw are infrmal ntes f the speaker s remarks as taken by a JHU/APL staff member. 2. Links t the vide, audi, and presentatin files frm the Seminar can be fund n the Vide Archives page f Files frm all ther previus events are als available n the site, and recent years vides may be fund n the JHU/APL YuTube Playlist. Intrductin Mr. Cheng began by explaining that he wuld be cvering tw large tpics: Hw the Chinese view the wrld and sme f the shaping factrs Hw the Chinese view infrmatin, especially as it wuld be used in a future cnflict China and the Millenia f Histry The first thing t understand is that the Chinese fr ver a thusand years saw themselves as mre advanced than any ther culture, and it was true They were mre sphisticated and mre ppulus than thse scieties with whm they came int cntact Even when cnquered by utsiders such as the Mngls r Manchus, the invaders wuld be assimilated t the extent that they gverned using Chinese language and custms At the end f the day, the Chinese always have expected their system wuld dminate Secndly, Asia is nt Eurpe Eurpe is always invlved in a balance f pwer struggle invlving many pwerful cuntries that wuld shuffle and reshuffle t face dwn a rising hegemn, e.g., Naplen, Stalin, etc. In Asia the perative wrd might be bandwagning where tributary natins tended t defer always t China In fact, the wrd China can translate t either Central r Middle Kingdm Cuntries n the periphery cnceded t it rather than banding tgether against it The Century f Humiliatin ( ) This was ne f the key shaping elements fr the Chinese tday at least fr the leadership As ppsed t the millennia befre, China lst cntrl ver its destiny in the mst thrugh way pssible as it lst cntrl ver its wn territry Great Britain tk ver sleepy little Hng Kng at the end f the first pium war, which was abut the British right t sell drugs t the Chinese That wuld have been the equivalent f the US lsing a war t a drug cartel Taiwan became imprtant in 1895 when it was ceded t Japan after China lst a war Then China lst cntrl f its ecnmy 1

2 Mst favred natin cncept was develped when the British tld China Here s the tariff we will allw yu t set n British gds ging t China Other natins wuld nt accept a higher tariff either China als culd nt raise tariffs withut British permissin and n cuntry wuld want t have their taxes raised China als lst cntrl f its diplmacy At Yalta in 1945, after Germany had been beaten but Japan had nt, President Rsevelt prmised Stalin cntrl f key Chinese prts and its Manchurian railrad But China was nt present at Yalta Yalta is cnsidered the Great Betrayal in China because f the issue f extra-territriality when Chinese citizens n Chinese sil in China s freign cncessin areas were made subject t freign law Dmestic prblems exacerbated thse brught in by utside entities, particularly the multiple civil wars which included: The very bldy Taiping Rebellin which caused 20 millin deaths the deadliest war f the 19 th century and fught mainly with swrds and spears A failed Chinese fficial believed he was Jesus Christ s yunger brther and started a religius based war t tpple the Manchurians The war had religius, ethnic, freign aspects In the 1911 Rebellin there were nly 2 millin dead The Ching Dynasty was brught dwn and replaced by the Republic f China Instead f becming a demcracy, China was run by war lrds, military dictatrs, reginal leaders The cnflicts were reslved when Chiang Kai-shek tk cntrl Chiang Kai-shek s Chinese Natinalists then began a lng civil war against the Cmmunists under Ma Tse-tung Hwever, WWII gt in the way s there were tw perids f this internal war Bttm line: China was being fught ver fr ver a century Ma Ends the Century f Humiliatin and China Stands Up Ma Tse-tung established the Peple s Republic f China (PRC) in 1949 Chiang Kai-shek and the Chinese Natinalists were defeated and driven ff t Taiwan, creating the current crss-straits prblem This war was nt abut independence but abut a China that frmally ended the Century f Humiliatin The Chinese Cmmunist Party (CCP) prmised t: End the enrmus ecnmic inequality in China Right the wrngs dne t China in the century f humiliatin Bring abut natinal unity, which wuld then bring ecnmic grwth The Key: Cmprehensive Natinal Pwer Basically, a judgement n hw China stands in relatin t ther cuntries Nt just military pwer r ecnmic pwer China well understd the histry f ther cuntries especially tk nte f the fate f the Sviet Unin, which spent s much n its military that it caused ecnmic cllapse China saw that ecnmic capability alne is als nt enugh Japan lked as thugh it wuld be the next super pwer in the 1980s but then faded away 2

3 Cncept f cmprehensive natinal pwer includes Physical unity the Taiwan issue Plitical unity the CCP as a vanguard party in the Leninist sense and the sle surce f plitical authrity Diplmatic recgnitin whether ther cuntries care what China thinks During the century f humiliatin, the Ching curt was almst irrelevant Nw China is a member f the UN Security Cuncil and the G-20 ensuring that thers d care what China thinks Scientific and technlgical prwess allws China t map its wn destiny, nt just make tee-shirts and washing machines fr thers Calls fr an advanced S&T fr areas such as space, ceangraphic research, genmics, etc. Cultural security always a challenge fr China It is pssible t eat American fd r watch American mvies anywhere with infrmatin playing increasingly imprtant rles in all aspects f life China has chsen t prduce simple cars and trucks that nw can be fund everywhere but with less ntice than American prducts All f these elements are nw being tied tgether with infrmatin Rle f Infrmatin The CCP remains a Marxist-Leninist Party Leninist because it claims t be a vanguard party Marxist, but nt frm the cncept f frm each accrding t his abilities t each accrding t his need Hard t d in a cuntry where there are nw hundreds f billinaires and thusands f millinaires (but mst are members f the CCP) Marxist because there is a fundamental link between the nature f sci-ecnmic pwer and mdern warfare and cmprehensive natinal pwer Nature f ecnmies effects the nature f scieties which then effects the nature f future warfare In the transitin frm the Industrial Age (rughly the beginning f the 20 th century) t the Infrmatin Age (rughly the end f the 20 th century) it is pssible t see a shift in what matters Ecnmically, it was imprtant t have mass and quantity, e.g., as with irn s a cuntry culd smelt and prduce gds Nw what is imprtant is hw much infrmatin yu can gather and hw fast yu can gather it That in turn influences military pwer and hw it is assessed Bttm line: There is a fundamental linkage between the nature f sci-ecnmic pwer and mdern warfare China s Military Tday The Peples Liberatin Army (PLA) is a Party-army nt a natinal military All fficers abve the rank f 2 nd lieutenant must be Party members The PLA members pledge t supprt the rule f the CCP Firmly under civilian cntrl, it is a matter f civil and military cperatin, nt civil vs. military authrities meaning that the PLA desn t act independently as has been suggested It is nt surprising that the Freign Ministry did nt knw abut the 2010 anti-satellite (ASAT) test since the interests f the Freign Ministry were nt relevant t the test Similarly, the US military wuld nt tell the US Secretary f the Interir abut a US Aegis missile test 3

4 Bttm line: There is n rgue PLA as sme have suggested Hwever, PLA thinking has changed It n lnger believes in quantity ver quality with the expectatin that the adversary will run ut f bullets befre China runs ut f bdies China has been a clse bserver f freign wars, especially recent US wars After careful analysis they are emplying lessns they have learned The evlutin f PLA thinking has been ging n since the first Gulf War Jiang Zemin (General Secretary starting in 1992) called fr Tw Mdernizatins Mved frm preparing fr lcal wars under mdern cnditins (lts f tanks, etc., frm the Industrial Age) t lcal wars under mdern, high-tech cnditins Lessn frm first Gulf War: prepare fr future wars t be nn-cmpact / nnlinear / nn-systemic Nn-cmpact: Engaging the enemy in many ways Nn-linear: Having n distinctly defensive r ffensive peratins all melded tgether alng with melded frntlines, attacks n frward and rear areas, etc. Nn-symmetric: Makes preparing fr future wars by lking at recent past wars cnfusing First Gulf War: 40 days f aerial bmbardment; a 100-hur grund war The Balkans: N grund war, nly an aerial bmbardment but the allies did get Milsevic t The Hague Afghanistan: Primarily airpwer plus precisin guided munitins, Special Operatins Frces t tpple the Taliban Iraq: Only a divisin and a half rlling up a single rad amazingly rapidly ver all bstacles Prblem: Hw shuld China prepare fr the next war recgnizing that the fur wars in the last 15 years were s dramatically different? Quantity vs Quality and Infrmatin Issues China des recgnize that a quantity based army wn t be flexible enugh in the future 2004: New Histric Missins were annunced after the PLA had enjyed 10 years f duble-digit budget increases and anticipated mre, but they were expected t be able t: Keep the CCP in pwer Be prepared t sustain the cnditins f China s ecnmic develpment Nt allw Taiwan t becme independent Remember that the military is nt China s first pririty even thugh it is nw getting much mre supprt than it had Even thugh they have new platfrms and systems in many dmains including space Ecnmic grwth is central Maintain the PLA s ability t dminate key dmains maritime, space and cyber which receive priritized spending China s assessment was the reasn fr evlutin frm lcal wars under high tech cnditins t lcal wars under infrmatinized cnditins Recgnized that nt all high tech is the same, and the mst imprtant is the technlgy that deals with infrmatin Bth the ecnmy and warfare have becme infrmatinized These cncepts applied t all aspects f ecnmy and war including recruiting, training, lgistics, cmmand and cntrl, weapns, etc. At the strategic level, must think f using infrmatin as a strategic tl T deny legitimacy and reframe hw things are perceived altering cntext 4

5 As a key tl fr plitical warfare Three Warfares f plitical warfare Public pinin warfare China and the US are already engaged in a struggle t influence glbal perceptins f wh is the gd guy in varius situatins If China can win that war, ther cuntries in their regin wn t be asking the US t send in a carrier grup Wuld be just as effective against a carrier as sinking it Wuld be better than killing 5,000 American sailrs causing a Pearl Harbr style rally arund the flag situatin Psychlgical warfare China has even weapnized turism by stpping millins f Chinese turists bking turs t S. Krea ver its displeasure with the THAAD deplyment They have smetimes pulled ut f travel arrangements at the last minute, precluding turist accmmdatins frm finding alternative clients China s even says in bradcasts and publicatins: Yu live in a demcracy, s yu can tell yur gvernment nt t deply THAAD Tk similar actins with the Philippines and Taiwan ver ther issues China ften reminds thers that China is the #2 ecnmy in the wrld and they aren t Others in the regin can be asked: Hw dependent are yu n China? Yu dn t want t make China angry Legal warfare Actins in the Suth China Sea (SCS) invlve dmestic rules and regulatins as well as internatinal treaties, etc. China uses its cast guard t assert its claims in the SCS, making its presence there seem less escalatry as well as implying: This is Chinese territry; n need t send in ur navy Deplying a freign navy there wuld be an intrusin At the strategic level: Infrmatinalized warfare A frm f anti-access area denial (A2/AD) Hardest frm f sft pwer If China is successful, they will delay r disrupt an interventin as well as gaining influence with three key audiences: Dmestic ppulatin must always knw what they think Adversaries bth the ppulatin and the leadership Third parties s that they dn t supprt the US At the peratinal level: Infrmatin warfare Gal: Infrmatin dminance the ability t gather / transmit / explit infrmatin faster and mre accurately than the adversary and deny them the same Netwrk warfare mre than just cyber, t include the ability t have an impact n all srts f netwrks (cmms, transprtatin, etc.) Electrnic warfare the Chinese were the first t cmbine it with netwrk warfare China generally thinks abut netwrk warfare as relating t sftware while electrnic warfare relates t hardware They als cnduct psychlgical warfare at the peratinal level Hw many s wuld need t be crrupted r lgistic shipments sent t the wrng lcatin befre an adversary wuld lack faith in his wn infrmatin systems? 5

6 The US must train t respnd t such cmplicatins and utages The US Navy has resumed navigatin training using sextns after eliminating it when GPS tk ver Prblem: Culd the US Navy perate carrier battle grups including air peratins withut GPS? China believes that the US wuld be much mre leery abut engaging in hstilities because f these issues Nt all tech is created equal and nt all netwrks are created equal The mst imprtant netwrks wuld be thse related t intelligence and cmmand & cntrl Objective: Achieve infrmatin dminance, which includes nt permitting adversaries t make use f the infrmatin that they cllect At the tactical level: Infrmatin peratins including thse effected by psychlgical effrts Integrated netwrks can be taken ut f actin by jamming r spfing r by physical actin nt invlving firepwer such as cutting cables Wuld frce greater use f space assets which wuld mean lwer bandwidths and vulnerability t ther attacks Cyber peratins are a relatively small part N stand-alne cyber functin Chinese dn t talk abut cyber dminance r deterrence but rather talk abut infrmatin dminance r deterrence Cyber is included with all the varius infrmatin peratins alng with deceptin and denial Primary bjective: Use all means pssible t alter an adversary s acceptance f his infrmatin Must start in peacetime can t map netwrks r the decisin-making prcess in real time during crises In the meantime, hacking OPM identifies wh wrks fr the gvernment Cmparing with data frm Ashley Madisn (dating site fr the already married) can identify ptentially cmprmisable HUMINT surces Cmprmising peple int HUMINT activities culd als be dne with credit ratings, idelgy, r health issues using hacked data bases Chinese Defensive Cyber Operatins The Chinese defend themselves in varius ways including: Hardware security Are the servers and the ruters secure? In bunkers? Sftware security Culd be a real prblem fr China Many Chinese cmputers run n Micrsft X-P sftware and many f thse are cunterfeit meaning nt all Zer-day vulnerabilities have been fixed Data security Separate frm sftware security Example: Space systems need prtectin, i.e., the sftware tracking satellites and the data that is being transmitted needs prtectin Management security The human element Includes such things as nt allwing peple t put randmly fund USB drives int a cmputer, but this happens all the time, everywhere In a test at West Pint, 15 cadets and 5 prfessrs were caught plugging in fund USB drives even after training instructed them nt t d s With s little cntrl ver thse mst mtivated t be security-cnscius, we shuld expect even mre prblems frm cntractrs, OPM, r Target 6

7 PLA Refrms 31 December 2015, PLA published massive dcument with its mst far-reaching refrms ever by refrming the Central Military Cmmissin that manages the PLA The Ministry f Defense des nt run the PLA but nly carries ut duties such as the prtcl f meeting freign defense fficials at the airprt Tp leaders hld nly brief meetings Everything is run by the Party Established a Jint Staff department t fster mutual situatinal awareness, which will be needed in future cnflicts Created three new services including the PLA Strategic Supprt Frce Brings tgether the electrnic warfare frces, netwrk warfare frces, space warfare frces, and sme f the plitical warfare frces Shuld be called the PLA Infrmatin Warfare Frce Established 5 war znes instead f the previus 7 military regins War znes are nw permanent where the military regins were peacetime nly Headquarters f the war znes are jint which was nt the case with the military regins Example: The Suthern War Zne has a Navy Cmmander, which never wuld have happened with the military regins The East, West, Nrth, and Suth War Znes are understandable The functin f the Center War Zne is smething f a mystery and may be respnsible fr the strategic reserve which allcates resurces t handle internal security threats May have a functinal rather than gegraphic respnsibility which wuld have cntrl ver infrmatin warfare frm the cyber, space, and nuclear dmains QUESTIONS & ANSWERS SESSION Re: Chinese Reactin t Ruling Against Their SCS Claims The Chinese cnsidered the internatinal tribunal in The Hague unqualified t pass judgement n its claims f svereignty ver small islands and utcrppings in the Suth China Sea But the Permanent Curt f Arbitratin cntained sme f the best jurists in the wrld Sme Freign Ministry fficials, speaking here fr bth the Party and the State, cnsidered these rulings as irrelevant as msquits Prblem: The wrld expected China t fllw the established rules f cnduct fr natin states as it develped because it benefits frm glbalizatin and rules-based regimes But China hasn t and nthing bad has happened t them as a cnsequence N cntracts brken, n ambassadrs recalled, etc. China is always happy t break rules when there are n cnsequences The Spratly develpments happened during a time when the US stpped ding freedm f navigatin (FON) peratins fr ver 3 years in the area It was a big mistake n the part f the US Future utlk The US under President Trump has already held fur FON Ops arund the Spratlys This is ne way t challenge China s claim t the SCS and the Spratlys N reasn fr the US t cncede them t China, but China has already made majr imprvements t thse islands including building: Airstrips and facilities fr SAMs Hardened aircraft shelters and ther undergrund structures Bttm line: It wuld be hard t reverse these actins nw but it is wrth the challenge Wuld be bldier t d s nw rather than in 2012 telling China t stp these activities r we will: 7

8 Cut ff trade and nt let yu list n the New Yrk Stck Exchange Nt allw ur cmpanies t build research centers in China This battle is nt lst yet but it is mre f a challenge nw The US shuld nt let them build the next set f structures n Scarbrugh Shals Re: China s Narrative Their narrative is centralized in their dctrinal writings Operatin Frtitude (the D-Day landing) centralized thughts abut WWII All elements (bmbing, deceptin, etc.) were tied tgether and rchestrated Similar situatin here fr at least sme f the Chinese messages and effrts China s prblems with the Uighurs and the SCS dn t seem cnnected but bth shw that China intends t defend all f its regins, n matter where Other narratives may als be at play such as the suicide f a senir general had mre t d with the Party trying t ensure the military knws that it is still under the cntrl f the Party Prblem: We have a limited number f peple lking at such tpics, s have little infrmatin Example: We dn t knw much abut the training fr thse wrking in the military plitical area We d knw the Plitical Wrk Department, in charge f plitical warfare, has its wn clleges as ne way t bring peple int the wrk Re: China s View f Nrth Krea Fr decades China wuld call their relatinship with N. Krea as clse as lips and teeth but nt s anymre N. Krea nw being seen as ging beynd being a mere prblem child Deng Xiaping tried t shw Kim Il-Sung hw much mre develped his cuntry culd be but Kim nly asked what happened t China s Cmmunists Prgressin thrughut the N. Krean dynastic turnvers has been cnsistent Kim Il Sung exterminated all ppsitin t him and t his dynastic successin Had t eliminate bth the pr-chinese and pr-sviet supprters Successfully played ne ff against the ther fr abut 30 years s never really in either camp a very impressive maneuver Kim Jung Il sustained that balance even during the fall f the Sviet Unin and the cllapse f Cmmunism wrldwide It was remarkable, even if dne by reprehensible peple Kim Jung Un (KJU) did nt have the same perid f preparatin his father had Kim Jung Il s successr was suppsed t be Kim Jung Un s lder brther (recently assassinated) until he was caught trying t g t Disneyland Tky n a fake freign passprt Un s lder brther had spent years in training Jung Il s middle sn was never cnsidered up t the task As a cnsequence, KJU nly had 3 years f training s is smewhat uneasy in his psitin Prbably the reasn he has executed s many senir advisers including his uncle, the latter using an anti-aircraft weapn Prblems fr China N. Krea is independent and nt an utgrwth f China, and China des nt have as much influence with it as we wuld like them t have because: N. Krea s ecnmy has imprved marginally China culd cmpletely cut ff il and fd deliveries, but then what? 8

9 China mstly fears vast numbers f refugees cming acrss their brder Bttm line: China chses t stay with the knwn pain in the neck The satellite night sht f N. Krea shwing almst n lights there desn t have t be that way China culd easily cnnect N. Krea t its electrical grid but has chsen nt t A weak N. Krea prbably wn t invade S. Krea Russia is sending il and fd t N. Krea and has installed a secnd ptical data link int a cuntry with very few cmputers which is a gd way t spread cmputer viruses If China sides with the US in sanctining N. Krea, there will still be Russia wh can trade with N Krea N. Krea is still playing Russia and China ff against ne anther Bttm line: N ne has a gd way f stpping N. Krea Kim Jung Un s nly gal is fr unificatin under N. Krean terms even if it is a fantasy But n ne can seem t determine what wuld deter Kim Re: Chinese Expansinism Strategic gals resemble a Russian nesting dll First China s immediate regin has always been its traditinal sphere f influence Krea, Philippines, Sutheast Asia, etc. They need t knw their place, which is firmly in China s rbit Secnd Out t the secnd island chain in the east and reaching as far as India and Central Asia in the west The effrt there is t tie these cuntries t China ecnmically and prvide a new market and even lcatins fr their mst plluting industries These cuntries are als expected t understand it is nt in their interests t try t balance China with a fickle US Further ut Africa, Central America, etc. where they have useful trading partners China happy t sign lng term trading pacts and even help build the infrastructure needed t supprt their imprt/exprt markets there Will create interest grups that see the value f selling gds t China prviding sme stability Very different frm the Russian mdel since Russia is in a hurry and has fewer resurces China is taking a lng view China is willing t spend a lt f mney t very slwly alter the terms Cnfucian Institutes are unlikely t change minds quickly but drpping $200,000 fr R&D at yur universities fr 10 years might have an impact University might be made mre reluctant t sign letters abut Chinese human rights abuses, effect curse selectin, etc. Students f thse classes will becme military fficers, gvernment staffers, etc. One Belt One Rad (OBOR) Initiative fr thse utside China s immediate sphere f influence An interesting effrt invlving ecnmic, diplmatic, and technlgical pwer Example: The 2016 Space White Paper insists n the use f BeiDu, the Chinese GPS system, fr the 5,000 miles f pipelines it is building in the OBOR initiative Pipelines need precise timing prvided by satellite navigatin systems like GPS If running BeiDu, then the client states wuld find it very expensive t use GPS Result: China has created captive custmers fr its prduct 9

10 Re: China Twenty-Five Years Out Hard t predict what the situatin will be in China by then China has the advantage f cnsistency and cnstancy Having a 5-year budget cycle is very helpful Already planning t have the first phase f mdernizatin ready by 2020 What we can expect t see: The new service, the PLA SFS, will be less f a mystery New dctrine fr these new services will be develped in the range The new military rganizatinal structures will be mdified and tweaked as China determines hw best t use them In the lnger term, fr verall infrmatin effrts, we shuld see multiple pathways being explred simultaneusly (as lng as the ecnmy cntinues t expand, which it is) China apparently has gleaned a lt frm DARPA unclassified recrds finding useful ideas n prjects that were never funded r were nt successful in their day Example: The 1970s DASH prgram, basically an unmanned ASW helicpter that lacked the sftware / cmmunicatins / etc. that it needed t be successful Nw there are advances in thse areas as well as in navigatin and new cmpsite materials What was t hard r expensive then, is detailed in public recrds, saving the Chinese R&D time and mney Bttm line: Expect the Chinese t explit research that the US has already cnducted in the next 10 years Twenty-five years is much harder t predict It is impssible t say where quantum cmmunicatins might lead Advances in genetic engineering are scary Plan 863 China s basic hi-tech research prgram prvides a lt f mney and institutinal resurces fr R&D prgrams Prgrams initially invlved aerspace, genetic engineering, advance materials, etc. Added an ceangraphy prgram in the 1990s The US assumes it leads in the underwater wrld But a lt might change in 25 years given imprvements in cmputing, China s manufacturing capabilities, and its ability t mnitr the SCS Already describing in public dcuments the installatin f a massive snar (SOSUS-like) netwrk in the SCS Result: The US can t be sure it will be able t send subs there undetected in the future Re: Future f Chinese Leadership Hard t say what will happen Xi Jinping s right-hand man, Wang Qishan, didn t remain n as expected nce he reached age 70 Was assumed that Xi wuld want him t since he was s imprtant in the anti-crruptin effrts That Wang didn t stay n indicates that the age restrictins (fr everyne but the tp 2 leaders) is a significant restrictin The 7 members f the Plitbur Standing Cmmittee are the ultimate pwer in the Party Leaving ut the tp tw psitins, 3 f the 5 remaining members will nt have t step dwn in 2022 at the next Party Cngress 10

11 President Xi, fr many gd reasns, has nt identified a successr but has indicated that he expects t have influence ver thse 3 wh we their psitins t him Mst likely, ne f thse 3 will be Xi s successr, but n matter wh takes ver, he will need t curry favr with thse 3 If Xi said he wanted a third term, he wuld likely get a lt f ppsitin Hwever, if Xi said he wuld step dwn and rule frm behind the scenes, any ppsitin wuld need t get supprt frm the 3 wh we everything t Xi Re: Impact f the One-Child Plicy China is suffering frm an aging ppulatin The wrking age ppulatin is already stagnant r starting t drp The recently annunced tw-child plicy is real but just because yu can nw have tw children, desn t mean yu will One mitigating factr against having tw children is the imprtance given t educatin where the csts fr educatin beynd public schls (cram schls, prep schls, etc.) is very high Hw China intends t handle the decline in ppulatin Already have the largest market fr rbts Even the PLA has discussed the prblem Shifting t quality is partially a recgnitin that they can t affrd massive casualties Psychlgical prfiling f recruits wh are single children indicates that they are largely seen t be self-centered, spiled, and ut f shape The US is wrrying abut the same srt f prblems but at different levels Chinese dctrs have challenges with recruits In the cities, they are paid by parents t mark their draftees as unqualified fr duty s that they can g wrk fr hi-tech cmpanies In the cuntry, they are paid by parents t ensure that the draftees are cnsidered qualified s that they can get ut f the cuntry and have better prspects Cultural differences between the US and China In the US, few peple serve in the military but they hnr the service f thse wh d In China, the ppsite is true where the attitude is: Dn t take gd steel t make nails and dn t take gd men t make sldiers Military lineage families are nt encuraged Nw China is trying t change the attitude by having special military htel / theater / transprtatin lines and ther perks and privileges fr military members China has als had a lng-standing prblem with develping a career NCO crps On the ther hand, it will need t realize that althugh it is a Party army it is als a prfessinal military Sldiers will fight and die fr their cuntry as well as fr the Party, e.g., very patritic Sldiers are nt illiterate, and nt the bttm f the barrel Officers are mtivated and educated as well as increasingly technlgically sphisticated with sme expsure t the utside wrld Re: Senkaku Islands Dispute China learned that a rather ham-handed apprach didn t wrk well In 2010 a drunken Chinese fisherman rammed tw Japanese Cast Guard vessels It started an incident with Japan wanting t put the fisherman n trial China was furius at the prspects f a trial Japan gave in and sent the fisherman back 11

12 Once China had him back, they impsed a massive rare earths embarg n Japan The rare earths embarg shcked the Japanese and set them ff n a mdernizatin effrt Thus, it did nt cme ut the way China had assumed China then als learned that the laws f supply and demand actually wrk The US, India, and Canada repened their rare earth mines when prices went up making it wrthwhile t mine again But nw thse mines are having truble because China eliminated the embarg after a significant number f WTO suits were filed against them Must hpe that smene wuld stp any effrt by a Chinese cmpany frm buying failing rare earth mines in ther cuntries, especially the US DD says that rare earth minerals are nt a prblem At least nt fr a 90-day war In a 3-year war DD shuldn t be s cnfident The US shuld g back t thinking abut mbilizatin and what is required t d s China nw has a huge staff thinking abut mbilizatin ptins and has been planning fr mbilizatin fr at least 15 years The US must think mre abut its industrial base including hw lng we culd sustain a cnflict against the PRC and hw we wuld d it using adaptability and resilience 12