CALIFORNIA 48TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL MARCH 4-6, 2018 COMPILED FROM 757 RESPONSES

Transcription

1 CALIFORNIA 48TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL MARCH 4-6, 2018 COMPILED FROM 757 RESPONSES Copyright 2018, Change Research, a Public Benefit Corporation

2 PART I 2018 CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION OUTLOOK 2

3 Do you expect to vote in the primary for US Congress, US Senate, and California Governor on June 5, 2018? 91% 9% Yes, I plan to vote in the primary No, I do not plan to vote in the primary 3

4 Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, No Descriptions Polling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents) 35% 10% 7% 3% Dana Rohrabacher, Harley Rouda, Scott Baugh, Michael Kotick, Republican. Democrat. Republican Democrat 10% 7% 4% 4% Laura Oatman, Hans Keirstead, Rachel Payne, Brandon Reiser, Democrat Democrat Democrat Libertarian 1% Omar Siddiqui, Democrat. 1% Boyd Roberts, Democrat. 1% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. 3% Stelian Onufrei, Republican. 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. 1% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. 3% John Gabbard, Republican. 2% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. 2% Deanie Schaarsmith, Democrat. 5% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field. 4

5 Primary Outlook - Long Ballot, candidates with a * had descriptions Numbers in parentheses show change from long ballot without descriptions Polling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents) 29% 12% 8% 5% Dana Rohrabacher, Scott Baugh, Omar Siddiqui, Laura Oatman, Republican.* (-6) Republican.* (+5) Democrat.* (+7) Democrat (-5) 13% 10% 6% 3% Hans Keirstead, Harley Rouda, Stelian Onufrei, Michael Kotick, Democrat.* (+6) Democrat.* Republican* (+3) Democrat* 0% Tony Zarkades, Democrat. 1% Paul Martin, Republican. 2% Brandon Reiser, Libertarian. 1% Kevin Kensinger, Independent. 2% Chase Geiser, Republican. 0% Edward Boyd, No Party Preference. 1% John Gabbard, Republican. 2% Rachel Payne*, Democrat. 0% Deanie Schaarsmith, Democrat. 3% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field. 5

6 Primary Outlook - Narrowed ballot, All With Descriptions Scott Baugh was omitted from this scenario. Polling based only on respondents who said they would vote in the primary (688 respondents) 41% 18% 14% 14% Dana Rohrabacher, Hans Keirstead, Harley Rouda, Omar Siddiqui, Republican. Democrat. Democrat. Democrat. 11% said Stelian Onufrei, Republican. 2% of voters who indicated they would vote in the primary would choose not to vote given this field. 6

7 PRIMARY ELECTION SCENARIO TAKEAWAYS Rohrabacher is clearly atop the field, both amongst the extended list of candidates and in a narrowed field. The field of Democrats are splitting the vote. Second place Republican Scott Baugh polls at about the same level as the leading Democrats on the long ballot. This suggests that if all of the possible candidates run in the primary, Baugh and Rohrabacher could potentially be the top two vote-getters, advancing to the general and leaving Democrats out altogether. The inclusion of candidate descriptions saw some of the leading Democrats gain points. Kierstead gained 6 points and Siddiqui gained 7 points. For Republicans, with the inclusion of descriptions, Baugh gained 5 points and Rohrabacher lost 6 points. In a narrowed field without Baugh, Rohrabacher is the clear leader and Kierstead is the runner-up and Democratic leader. Siddiqui and Rouda are close behind, and split the vote with 14% each. 7

8 Methodology TARGETING WEIGHTING Voters in California s 48th Congressional District were solicited, between March 4 and March 6, to take a survey conducted in English. Change Research applied proprietary Bias Correct approach to solicitations in order to yield a mostly representative sample. 1,182 people started the survey and 757 registered voters completed it. Results based on 757 respondents identified from voter files as CA-48 residents who answered most of the questions. Sample demographics are close to the electorate for age, gender, and ethnicity. Post-stratification done on age, gender, ethnicity, 2016 presidential vote. 54

9 THANK YOU Contact: 55