Learning from Data. Aaron
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1 Learning from Data Aaron Assistant Professor of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute 2013 Aaron Clauset
2 distribution p(x) the fraction of times we observe an event of size x
3 normal distribution the bell curve height average height of an American is feet proportion height (feet)
4 normal distribution the bell curve height average height of an American is feet proportion height (feet)
5 normal distribution the bell curve height average height of an American is feet proportion height (feet)
6 normal distribution the bell curve average is representative lengths (human height, etc.) weights (human or otherwise) speeds (highway, running, etc.)
7 power law distributions heavy-tailed patterns average is not representative
8 power law distributions heavy-tailed patterns power law with average most values very small! proportion avg. max size
9 power law distributions heavy-tailed patterns power law with average most values very small proportion max avg size
10 power law distributions heavy-tailed patterns power law with average most values very small but a few values VERY big proportion max avg size
11 power law distributions heavy-tailed patterns power law distributions average is not representative earthquake energy solar flare energy flood water volume forest fire size landslide size lunar crater size terrorism events international wars book sales electrical blackouts financial wealth city population financial returns surname frequency
12 power laws vs. normals counter-intuitive
13 power laws vs. normals counter-intuitive 500 largest US cities P(X x) Denver Indianapolis Los Angeles New York city population, x
14 power laws vs. normals counter-intuitive financial wealth as human heights th % th % 35th % 65th % 85th % The Height of Inequality (2006) in The Atlantic
15 terrorism
16 terrorism RAND-MIPT data 40 years ( ) domestic + international cities, 187 countries 36,018 events (37% deadly)
17 terrorism where does terrorism occur? what is risk of dying from terrorism? data analysis: 1. take all events count deaths in each country 3. divide total by country s population 4. yields per capita risk of death 5. visualize on a world map
18 Deaths per million people, <
19 deaths per million people, USA 2007 terrorism 0 lightning 0.15 bee sting 0.18 airplane crash 0.23 homicide car crash * * -- 1 x1.2 x1.5 x408.3 x829.5 sources:, US Census, MIPT, NWS, CDC, NTSB and NHTSA * most recent available data, from 2006
20 terrorism how many people die in a terrorist event? data analysis: 1. take all events 2. count # times 1 death, 2 deaths, etc. 3. visualize as distribution
21 deadly terrorist events, number of incidents deaths per attack
22 deadly terrorist events, number of incidents { normal, 92% 957 large, 8% { very large, 0.3% { deaths per attack
23 deadly terrorist events, percent with greater severity 100% 10% 1% 0.1% 0.01% large events 8% { deaths per attack
24 deadly terrorist events, percent with greater severity 100% 10% 1% 0.1% 0.01% large events 8% { deaths per attack it follows a power-law distribution up by 10x in severity = down by 250x in frequency
25 terrorism do big events happen everywhere equally? data analysis: 1. divide events by (i) developed nation or (ii) developing nation 2. for each type, count # times 1 death, 2 deaths, etc. 3. visualize the two distributions
26 percent with greater severity 100% 10% 1% 0.1% 0.01% developed nations 5% developing nations 95% deaths per attack
27 terrorism how long do terrorist groups last? data analysis: 1. for each unique terrorist group 2. count # years between oldest and newest event 3. then count # groups with 1 year, 2 years, etc. of activity 4. visualize the distribution
28 major terrorist organizations Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) 2. Hamas 3. Taliban 4. Basque Fatherland and Freedom (ETA) 5. Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) 6. National Liberation Army (Colombia) 7. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) 8. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) 9. al-fatah 10. Communist Party of India-Maoist 11. al-qaeda Organization in the Land of the Two Rivers 12. Anti-Castro Cubans 13. Hezbollah 14. Fronte di Liberazione Naziunale di a Corsica (FLNC) 15. Shining Path 16. Islamic State of Iraq 17. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) 18. United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) 19. al-aqsa Martyrs Brigades 20. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) 21. Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement 22. Ansar al-sunnah Army 23. Black September 24. New People's Army (NPA) 25. Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) 26. Mujahideen Shura Council 27. Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia 28. Irish Republican Army (IRA) 29. Revolutionary People s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C) 30. People's War Group (PWG) 31. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) 32. Jewish Defense League (JDL) 33. Amal 34. Armed Islamic Group 35. Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) 36. Earth Liberation Front (ELF) 37. Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) 38. Popular Resistance Committees 39. Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front 40. Revolutionary Organization 17 November (RO-N17) 41. al-qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb 42. Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) 43. Revolutionary People's Struggle 44. Red Army Faction 45. Islamic Army in Iraq 45. Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) 46. UNITA 47. Revolutionary Nuclei 48. al-gama'a al-islamiyya (GAI) 49. Free Aceh Movement (GAM) 50. Kurdistan Freedom Hawks 51. April 19 Movement 52. Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) 53. Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) 54. Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA) 55. al-qaeda 56. Tawhid and Jihad 57. Popular Liberation Army 58. Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) 59. Montoneros 60. Turkish Communist Party Marxist-Leninist (TKP/ML- TIKKO) 61. Mozambique National Resistance Movement 62. Ulster Defence Association/Ulster Freedom Fighters 63. Purbo Banglar Communist Party (PBCP) 64. National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) 45. First of October Antifascist Resistance Group (GRAPO) 46. Red Hand Defenders (RHD) 47. Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) 48. Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) 49. Mujahideen Youth Movement 50. Bersatu 51. People's Revolutionary Army (Argentina) 52. Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front 53. Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) 54. Islamic Jihad Jerusalem 55. Peronist Armed Forces 56. Khmer Rouge 57. Justice Commandos for the Armenian Genocide 58. Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA) 59. PKK/KONGRA-GEL 60. National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) 61. Lautaro Youth Movement 62. Action Directe 63. Polisario Front 64. Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MeK) 65. Maoist Communist Center (MCC) 66. Popular Forces of April Third of October Group 68. Baader-Meinhof Group 69. Breton Revolutionary Army (ARB) 1. Orly Organization 2. People's Liberation Forces (El Salvador) 3. Front for the Liberation of the Cabinda Enclave 4. Abu al-rish Brigades 5. African National Congress (South Africa) 6. Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) 7. Islamic Great Eastern Raiders Front 8. Palestinian Revolution Forces General Command 9. Chukakuha 10. Communist Combatant Cells 11. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine -- General Command (PFLP-GC) 12. Red Brigades 13. Japanese Red Army (JRA) 14. Animal Liberation Front (ALF) 15. Committee of Solidarity with Arab and Middle East Political Prisoners (CSPPA) 16. Front for the Liberation of Lebanon from Foreigners (FLLF) 17. Jamatul Mujahedin Bangladesh 18. Informal Anarchist Federation 19. Sudan People's Liberation Army 20. Ninth of June Organization 21. Guerrilla Army of the Poor 22. Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) 23. Anti-Imperialist International Brigade 24. All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) 25. People's Revolutionary Army (Colombia) 26. Social Resistance 27. Arab Communist Organization (ACO) 28. Anti-Terrorist Liberation Group 29. Riyad us-saliheyn Martyrs' Brigade 30. Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) 31. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) 32. Revolutionary United Front (RUF) 33. Jamiat ul-mujahedin (JuM) 34. Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) 35. Pattani United Liberation Organization (PULO) 36. Group Bakunin Gdansk Paris Guatemala Salvador 37. Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) 38. Revolutionary Struggle 39. Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction 40. Ananda Marga 41. Tupamaros
29 number of groups { one-hit wonders 65% long-lived 35% { years of activity
30 terrorism
31 terrorism terrorism occurs mostly in global hot spots deaths follow a power law big events often in developed countries most terrorist groups short-lived Severity, S (deaths) Proportion S Attack number (Jan ) (frequency) / (deaths)
32 what else follows power laws?
33 1906 San Francisco, M Sichuan, M Japan, M8.9
34 earthquakes earthquake physics
35 earthquakes earthquake physics Magnitude, M Gutenberg-Richter law Proportion M Earthquake number (frequency) / (seismic moment)
36 earthquakes Gutenberg-Richter law F / M physics largely known processes fixed forecasting possible (years of successes) prediction very hard (years of failures) terrorism Richardson s law F / S processes largely unknown processes dynamic, adaptive how do we forecast? what can we predict? what can we not predict?
37 data, data, data
38 data, data, data some of my projects published in 2013 scoring dynamics in professional team sports scoring dynamics in the video game Halo identifying patterns in malaria gene networks detecting friendships in online social networks body size evolution of horses over the past 55 million years social networks in c1400 American Southwest forecasting large events in terrorism how large should whales be?...
39 data, data, data Scoring dynamics across professional team sports: tempo, balance and predictability Sears Merritt 1, 1, 2, 3, and Aaron Clauset 1 Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd., Santa Fe, NM sport abbrv. seasons teams competitions scoring events Football (college) CFB 10, , ,827 Football (pro) NFL 10, ,654 19,476 Hockey (pro) NHL 10, ,813 44,989 Basketball (pro) NBA 9, ,744 1,080,285
40 data, data, data Scoring dynamics across professional team sports: tempo, balance and predictability Sears Merritt 1, 1, 2, 3, and Aaron Clauset 1 Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO BioFrontiers Institute, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Rd., Santa Fe, NM 87501
41 fin more follow me on read my blog read my papers : :
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