Evaluating the Political Rationality of Terrorist Groups

Transcription

1 Evaluating the Political Rationality of Terrorist Groups

2 Eric van Um Evaluating the Political Rationality of Terrorist Groups

3 Eric van Um Hamburg, Germany ISBN DOI / ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: Springer VS Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2016 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, speci cally the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on micro lms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a speci c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer VS is a brand of Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden is part of Springer Science+Business Media (

4 Acknowledgments I would like to thank my supervisors: Prof. Dr. Michael Brzoska for feedback, valuable advice, and guidance at every stage of my research; and Prof. Dr. Ulrich Schneckener, to whom I am indebted for stepping in as a supervisor on short notice; and also for his feedback and advice; my parents: for their constant assistance and encouragement; Denise Völker for her support; and many others for exchange of ideas and for providing valuable feedback and comments: Brian Phillips, Hendrik Hegemann, Marc Vothknecht, Martin Kahl, Max Abrahms, Neil Ferguson, Olaf de Groot, Sebastian Schiek, and Ulrich Kühn. A special thank-you goes to Ulrike Beyer, for her presence and confidence at every stage of this process. Finally, financial support from the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) and the University of Hamburg is very grate-fully acknowledged.

5 Contents LIST OF TABLES... XI LIST OF FIGURES... XIII ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS... XV 1 INTRODUCTION Terrorists Psychological and Economic Rationality Purpose of the Book What We Know So Far Research Framework Puzzles under Consideration Research Strategy Sample Selection Organization of the Book CONCEPTUAL CONSIDERATIONS Why They Fight: Examining Terrorists Motives Assuming Political Motives as Prime Drivers Assuming Alternative Motives as Prime Drivers Overview of the Motives How They Fight: Terrorism and Rational Choice The Evolution of Rational Choice Theory The Premises of Rational Choice Theory Rational Choice Theory under Attack Alternative Concepts of Rationality and Modifications of Rational Choice Theory Conclusion... 32

6 viii CONTENTS 3 THE PUZZLE OF INTER-TERRORIST GROUP VIOLENCE Questioning the Political Rationality of Terrorist Groups State of Research Conceptual Foundations and Research Methodology The Puzzle Revisited: Inter-Terrorist Group Violence from Different Conceptual Perspectives Research Design: Methodology and Operationalization A First Impression: Reviewing Groups from a Macro- Perspective The Case of Northern Ireland Inter-Group Violence between Republicans and Loyalists Inter-Republican and Inter-Loyalist Violence Concluding Remarks The Case of the Palestinian Territories Reviewing Inter-Group Violence Reviewing the Motives of Inter-Group Violence Concluding Remarks Further Cases Considered Reviewing Inter-Group Violence Reviewing the Motives of Inter-Group Violence Concluding Remarks Conclusion Reviewing the Occurrence of Inter-Group Violence Reviewing the Motives of Inter-Group Violence THE PUZZLE OF THE POLITICAL INEFFECTIVENESS OF TERRORIST GROUPS Questioning the Political Rationality of Terrorist Groups

7 CONTENTS ix 4.2 State of Research Evidence of Tactical Effectiveness Evidence of Strategic Effectiveness Evidence of Strategic Failure Overview of Political Success and Failure Conceptual Foundations and Research Methodology The Puzzle Revisited: The Ineffectiveness of Terrorist Groups from Different Conceptual Perspectives Research Design: Methodology and Operationalization The Political Effectiveness of Terrorist Groups Revisited Overview of the Objectives of Terrorist Groups Overview of the Achievements of Terrorist Groups Concluding Remarks Testing the Explanatory Power of Alternative Approaches Terrorists in Their Own Words The Behavior of Terrorist Groups and Revealed Preferences Concluding Remarks Why Politically Motivated Groups Start Using Terrorism Exploring Alternatives Studying Belief Formation Concluding Remarks Why Politically Motivated Groups Keep Using Terrorism Exploring Alternatives Studying Belief Formation Concluding Remarks Conclusion Reviewing the Political Effectiveness of Terrorist Groups

8 x CONTENTS Reviewing Explanatory Approaches CONCLUSION The Notion of Political Rationality Two Puzzles for Politically Rational Behavior The Puzzle of Inter-Terrorist Group Violence The Puzzle of the Political Ineffectiveness of Terrorist Groups Evaluating the Explanatory Power of the Political Rationality Model The Way Ahead: Enhancing the Model s Explanatory Power Modifications within the Model of Political Rationality Modifications beyond the Model of Political Rationality Contributions to Terrorism Studies and Beyond APPENDIX REFERENCES

9 List of Tables Table 1: Assumptions about terrorist groups motivations Table 2: Standards of rational choice theory Table 3: Explanations for inter-group violence Table 4: Inter-group violence between Northern Irish groups Table 5: Inter-group violence between Palestinian groups Table 6: Inter-group violence between Colombian groups Table 7: Inter-group violence between Indian groups Table 8: Inter-group violence between Spanish groups Table 9: Inter-group violence between Turkish groups Table 10: Patterns of inter-group violence identified Table 11: Studies on terrorist effectiveness Table 12: Criminally most effective groups in the sample Table 13: Main sources of inspiration for groups in the sample Table 14: Rationality and motives of terrorist groups Table 15: Groups listed in the EU s Common Position Table 16: Share of inter-group violence Table 17: Incidents of inter-group violence listed in datasets Table 18: Objectives and levels of effectiveness of terrorist groups

10 List of Figures Figure 1: Formation of Northern Irish terrorist groups Figure 2: Motives of violence between Republicans and Loyalists Figure 3: Motives of inter-republican and inter-loyalist Violence Figure 4: Formation of Palestinian terrorist groups Figure 5: Motives of violence between Palestinian groups Figure 6: Motives of violence between further groups in the sample Figure 7: Political effectiveness of groups in the sample Figure 8: Lifespan of terrorist groups

11 Abbreviations and Acronyms (English abbreviations and acronyms listed if available) 17N AAA AAMB ACCU AISSF ANC ANO ATE AUC AuM AUM BK(I) BR/PCC BVE CAA CAIN CHP CIRA CPP Dev Sol DFLP DHKP/C DTV EA EAM ELA ELAS EOKA ELN EP EPL ETA ETA/m ETA/pm EU FARC Five Cs FLN IG GAL Revolutionary Organization 17 November Argentine Anticommunist Alliance al-aqsa Martyrs Brigade Self-Defense Groups of Cordoba and Uraba All India Sikh Students Federation African National Congress Abu Nidal Organization Anti-Terrorism ETA United Self-Defense Forces/Units of Colombia Al-Umar Mujahideen Aum Shinrikyo Babbar Khalsa (International) Red Brigades for the Construction of the Fighting Communist Party Spanish Basque Battalion Autonomous Anti-Capitalist Commandos Conflict Archive on the Internet Republican People s Party Continuity Irish Republican Army Communist Party of the Philippines Revolutionary Left Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine Revolutionary People s Liberation Army Domestic Terrorism Victims Revolutionary Struggle National Liberation Front Revolutionary Popular Struggle Greek People s Liberation Army National Organization of Cypriot Struggle National Liberation Army (of Colombia) Revolutionary Nuclei Popular Liberation Army Basque Fatherland and Freedom ETA military ETA political-military European Union Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia Cell Against Capital, Prison, Prison Warders and Prison Cells National Liberation Front Gama a al Islamiyya Antiterrorist Liberation Groups

12 xvi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS GRAPO First of October Antifascist Resistance Group GTD Global Terrorism Database Hamas Islamic Resistance Movement HB Herri Batasuna HM Hizbul Mujahideen HuA Harkat-ul-Ansar HuJI Harkat-ul-Jihad al-islami IBDA/C Islamic Great Eastern Raiders Front IMC Independent Monitoring Commission INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty INLA Irish National Liberation Army IPLO Irish People s Liberation Organisation IRA Irish Republican Army IRB Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ITERATE International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events JeM Jaish-e-Mohammad JKLF Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front ISIS Islamic State in Iraq and Syria ISYF International Sikh Youth Federation KCF Khalistan Commando Force KDP Kurdish Political Party KDPI Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran KZ(F) Khalistan Zindabad (Force) LEHI Fighters for the Freedom of Israel LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba LVF Loyalist Volunteer Force LTTE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam M-19 April 19 Movement MAS Death to Kidnappers MCC Maoist Communist Centre MFO Multinational Force and Observers MLP Motherland Party MRI Independent Revolutionary Movement MSI Socialist Movement Party NAC Armed Units for Communism NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-Governmental Organization NPA New People s Army OIRA Official Irish Republican Army OV Orange Volunteers PA Palestinian Authority PFLP Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine PFLP-GC Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command PIJ Palestinian Islamic Jihad PIRA Provisional Irish Republican Army PKK Kurdistan Workers Party PLA People s Liberation Army PLF Palestine Liberation Front PLO Palestine Liberation Organization PUK Patriotic Union of Kurdistan

13 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS xvii PW RCT RDWTI RREEMM RHD RIRA SATP SF SL TAK TH THKO THKP/C TOPs TWEED UCDP UDA UK UNHCR UP US UVF WITS The People s War Rational Choice Theory RAND Database of Worldwide Terrorism Incidents Resourceful-Restricted-Evaluating-Expecting-Maximizing-Man Red Hand Defenders Real Irish Republican Army South Asia Terrorism Portal Sinn Fein Shining Path Kurdistan Freedom Hawks Turkish Hizbullah People s Liberation Army of Turkey Turkish People s Liberation Party/Front Terrorist Organization Profiles Terrorism in Western Europe: Events Data Uppsala Conflict Data Program Ulster Defence Association United Kingdom United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Patriotic Union United States Ulster Volunteer Force Worldwide Incidents Tracking System