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1 DEADLY IMPASSE What ails the Indo-Pakistani relationship? Rivalry between the two states has persisted since the partition of the British Indian Empire in 1947 and despite negotiations, four wars and multiple crises, India and Pakistan remain locked in a long-standing dispute. Evaluating relations from 1999 through to 2009, seeks to understand this troubled relationship and why efforts at peace-making and conflict resolution, which have included unilateral Indian concessions, have not been more fruitful. Charting key sources of tension throughout the decade, including the origins and outcomes of the Kargil War in 1999, developments in the Indian-controlled portion of the state of Kashmir, the attack on the Indian parliament in December 2001 and the onset of the crisis, Deadly Impasse sets out to discover whether the roots of this hostile relationship stem from security dilemmas or reflect the dynamics between a status quo power and a predatory state. sumit ganguly is a professor of political science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University, Bloomington.

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3 Deadly Impasse Kashmir and Indo-Pakistani Relations at the SUMIT GANGULY Indiana University, Bloomington

4 University Printing House, Cambridge CB 2 8 BS, United Kingdom Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge. It furthers the University s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence. Information on this title: / This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2016 Printed in the United Kingdom by Clays, St Ives plc A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN Hardback ISBN Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URL s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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7 CONTENTS List of maps Preface and acknowledgments List of abbreviations page viii ix xi 1 The rivalry revisited 1 2 Kargil and after 31 3 The troubled decade in Kashmir 53 4 The road to Operation Parakram 63 5 The composite dialogue and beyond 81 6 An extension of the rivalry Policy implications 120 In lieu of an epilogue 129 Appendix A The Karachi Agreement 134 Appendix B The Tashkent Declaration 140 Appendix C The Shimla Agreement 143 Appendix D The Lahore Declaration 146 Appendix E The India-Pakistan Non-Attack Agreement 150 Appendix F Charts, data and calculations by Jack Renner 152 Appendix G Maps 158 References 160 Index 171 vii

8 MAPS 1 Siachen Glacier page Contested territories 159 viii

9 PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This manuscript has had a long gestation period. The original idea stemmed from a plan to update my previous book, The Crisis in Kashmir: Portents of War, Hopes of Peace. However, my imaginative and supportive editor at Cambridge University Press, Edward Parsons, upon reading my proposal suggested that I write a wholly new book. His generous suggestion led to the genesis of this book. It does not merely seek to update developments in Kashmir but instead attempts to probe what ails the Indo-Pakistani relationship and prevents a resolution of the long-standing dispute. It argues that the two parties are not on an equal footing; Pakistan is the revisionist state in this relationship and India is the status quo power. This argument is not a normative statement; instead it is merely the description of an empirical reality. I am deeply grateful to a number of individuals who have read and commented on the manuscript. My most able, thoughtful and generous critics are two former doctoral students, Nicolas Blarel and Manjeet Pardesi. Both of them read the manuscript with care, proffered important theoretical and substantive suggestions and forced me to clarify my arguments in various places. Colonel David O. Smith, a friend of many years, who served twice as the United States Defense Attaché in Islamabad, Pakistan, also provided timely, thoughtful and trenchant comments on this manuscript. Professor Robert Jervis, who has long been a staunch intellectual supporter, read the manuscript with much care and provided me with extensive and perspicacious comments. Finally, I wish to thank an ix

10 x Preface and acknowledgments anonymous reviewer for Cambridge University Press who provided critical, but entirely helpful, suggestions for improving the manuscript. The usual caveats apply. I also wish to thank the following individuals for their assistance. My research assistant, Brandon Miliate, proofread this manuscript with care, pitched in as needed to track down errant endnotes, and created the bibliography and appendices. Karen Stoll Farrell, the Librarian for South and Southeast Asia at the Wells Library and Indiana University, Bloomington helped locate relevant documents in a most timely fashion. Her colleague, Theresa Quill, the Social Sciences and GIS Librarian, worked closely and attentively with me to create the accompanying maps. Jack Renner, an intern at the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University Bloomington, carefully constructed the economic data charts. Finally, I would be remiss if I did not thank my previous editor at Cambridge University Press, Marigold Acland, and my current editor, Lucy Rhymer, for their generous encouragement, extraordinary patience and unstinted support.

11 ABBREVIATIONS CBM CCS CFL HuM IAF ISAF ISI-D JeM LeT LoC NAM NIA NLI PAF PLA PPP PRC SAARC Confidence Building Measure Cabinet Committee on Security Ceasefire Line Hizb-ul-Mujahideen Indian Air Force International Security Assistance Force Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate Jaish-e-Mohammed Lashkar-e-Taiba Line of Control Non-Aligned Movement National Investigation Agency Northern Light Infantry Pakistan Air Force People s Liberation Army Pakistan People s Party People s Republic of China South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation xi