2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX

Transcription

1 2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX Institute for Economics and Peace Wednesday, 26 th November 2014 #TerrorismIndex

2 INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE The Institute for Economics and Peace is an independent, not-for-profit, think tank dedicated to building a greater understanding of the key drivers and measures of peace and to identifying the economic benefits that increased peacefulness can deliver. Sydney, New York, Mexico City, Oxford

3 AGENDA Highlights Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted by Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

4 METHODOLOGY Indicator Weight Incidents 1 Injuries 0.5 Deaths 3 Property Damage 1 to 3 From START Global Terrorism Database Logarithmic Banding Scores (1-10) Over 5 years, with score weight decreasing by half p.a. e.g. current year 52%, then 26%, 13%, 6% and 3%.

5 SEVEN-YEAR TRENDS IN PEACE Global Peace decreased 5% over past 7 years The decline is largely driven by: 1. Homicide Has increased slowly and steadily 2. Terrorist activity has increased dramatically last 2 years Many more killed by homicides than terrorism 40x more likely to die from homicides

6 Average International Homicide Rate per 100,000 GLOBAL HOMICIDE RATES The average country homicide rate has been increasing since Homicide killed 437,000 people across the world in UNODC Source: UNODC

7 Total Number of Deaths HOMICIDES VS TERRORISM GLOBALLY Around 40 times more people are killed by homicide than terrorism Homicide Terrorism Source: UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2013, START GTD

8 Number of Deaths DEATHS FROM TERRORISM, Five times more people died from terrorism in 2013 than September 11 U.S. invade Afghanistan US invade IRAQ US troop surge Syrian Civil War begins Global Total Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria Rest of the World Source: START GTD

9 HIGHLIGHTS 2013 was the deadliest year in the 14 years covered in the research 61% yearly increase in deaths approximately 11,000 to 18,000 5x increase since 2000 In 2013: 5 countries account for 82% of deaths 4 organisations account for 66% of deaths 24 countries had over 50 deaths the most ever 8 OECD countries experienced deadly attacks Suicide bombings accounted for 5% of attacks Sunni religious extremists main cause of deaths

10 2014 GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX RESULTS

11 10 COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY TERRORISM Rank Name Deaths Injuries Incidents 1 Iraq 6,362 14,947 2,492 2 Afghanistan 3,111 3,721 1,148 3 Pakistan 2,345 5,035 1,933 4 Nigeria 1, Syria 1,078 1, India Somalia Yemen Philippines Thailand

12 Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Thailand Rest of the world Fatalities COUNTRIES WITH MOST TERRORISM IN 2013 Five countries account for more than 80% of global terrorist activity % 13% 10% 6% 2,3% 2,2% 1,6% 1,6% 1,1% 10% % % Source: START GTD

13 CORRELATES OF TERRORISM Terrorism is linked to political grievances rather than poverty measures Factors most closely associated with terrorism: State sponsored violence torture, killings Intergroup cohesion Legitimacy of the State High levels of other forms of violence Factors not statistically associated with terrorism: Poverty measures Mean years of schooling Life expectancy Economic Indicators

14 THE FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS IN 2013 Four groups were responsible for 66% of all deaths by known groups in 2013 Other 34% Al-Qa`ida 6% Boko Haram 16% ISIL 14% Source: START GTD Taliban 30%

15 HOW TERRORIST GROUPS END Political engagement and policing were the most successful strategies in combating terrorist groups from Military Force; 7% Achieved Goals; 10% Politicisation; 43% Policing; 40% Source: RAND

16 Sudan Algeria India Russia Israel Colombia Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Uganda Rest of the World Iraq Afghanistan Pakistan Nigeria Syria Somalia India Philippines Yemen Kenya Rest of the World Terrorism 2002 Compared to (Total Deaths = 3803) 2013 (Total Deaths = 17,958)

17 AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

18 Number of Countries NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH 50+ DEATHS 2013 recorded the largest number of countries with more than 50 deaths over the last 14 years Source: START GTD

19 Fatalities BIGGEST INCREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013 These 5 countries not only had the biggest increases but are also the 5 countries suffering the most from terrorism Country Iraq Pakistan Syria Nigeria Afghanistan YOY increase 164% 28% 71% 30% 13% Source: START GTD

20 Fatalities BIGGEST DECREASE FROM 2012 TO 2013 Countries with the biggest reduction in deaths from terrorism have all had relatively high historical rates of terrorism YOY decrease -15% -48% -43% -23% -85% Country Yemen Colombia Turkey Thailand Cote d'ivoire Source: START GTD

21 Numbers of Incidents TRENDS IN TERRORIST IDEOLOGIES Religion as a driving ideology for terrorism has dramatically increased since Religious Political 200 National Separatist

22 Proportions of Incidents TRENDS IN REGIONAL TERRORIST IDEOLOGY Religious ideologies as a motivation for terrorism is not a global phenomenon 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: START GTD Political Organisations Religious Nationalist Separatist

23 TARGETS OF TERRORISM The primary target of terrorism has consistently been private property and citizens 40% Private Citizens 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Police 10% 5% 0% Private Citizens & Property Government (General) Transportation Police Business Religious Figures/Institutions Source: START GTD

24 Proportions of Fatalities in An Incident 60% FATALITIES PER ATTACK Since 2007, there have been proportionally less incidents recorded that have killed more than 5 people 50% No Fatalities 40% 1-5 Fatalities 30% 20% 10% 0% >5 Fatalities Source: START GTD

25 SUICIDE ATTACKS BY REGION Since 2000, only 5% of all incidents have been suicide attacks of which 90% occurred in South Asia and MENA Suicide attacks 37% 4% 3% 2% 1% 53% All other attacks Source: START GTD

26 TERRORISM FATALITIES SINCE 2000 IN OECD 5% per cent of all 107,000 terrorist fatalities since 2000 have occurred in OECD countries OECD Fatalities 5% Rest of the World 95% Source: START GTD

27 AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

28 Fatalities MOST DEADLY TERRORIST GROUPS The four most deadly terrorist groups are the Taliban, ISI(L), al-qa'ida and Boko Haram Taliban Boko Haram Al-Qa'ida ISIL Note: In 2013 ISI changed their name to ISIL Source: START GTD

29 Fatalities FOUR DEADLIEST GROUP OVER TIME The four most deadly terrorist groups have killed nearly 24,000 people since Al-Qa`ida (all major affiliates) Taliban ISIL Boko Haram Incidents Fatalities Injuries Source: START GTD

30 BELIEFS OF FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS All of the deadliest groups share a common basic set of beliefs All 4 groups follow some form of Wahhabi theologies They all reject the concept of Western education Like rain. We believe it is a creation of God rather than an evaporation caused by the sun that condenses and becomes rain... Like saying the world is a sphere. If it runs contrary to the teachings of Allah, we reject it. We also reject the theory of Darwinism Mohammed Yusuf, Founder, Boko Haram Groups have differing goals and aims Moderate forms of Sunnis theologies need to be cultivated difficult for West to influence

31 NUMBER OF FIGHTERS There are large variations on the number of fighters in the major terrorist groups Boko Haram Al-Qa'ida (all major affiliates) ISIL Taliban Low estimate High estimate Sources: Various see 2014 GTI

32 FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA Most foreign fighters are from neighbouring countries in MENA Tunisia Saudi Arabia Jordan Morocco Lebanon Libya Turkey Egypt Iraq Algeria Palestine Sudan Kuwait Qatar U.A.E. Bahrain Mauritania Oman ICSR Low estimate (Dec 2013) ICSR High estimate (Dec 2013) Govt. Agency Estimates (Feb-April 2014) Number of fighters

33 WESTERN FIGHTERS IN SYRIA Western Europe is not the main source of foreign fighters in Syria Russia France United Kingdom Belgium Germany Australia Netherlands Kosovo Denmark Spain Sweden United States Austria Indonesia Italy Norway Finland Canada Ireland Switzerland Kyrgyzstan Luxembourg Singapore ICSR Low estimate (Dec 2013) ICSR High estimate (Dec 2013) Govt. Agency Estimates (Feb-April 2014) Number of fighters

34 AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

35 IRAQ There were 6,352 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 1 GTI Score 10/10 Incidents 2,492 Fatalities 6,362 Injuries 14,947 Property Damage 812 Targets Al-Qa`ida in Iraq Fatalities Groups Responsible Other Other Private Citizens & Property Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Unknown Government (General) Police Source: START GTD

36 AFGHANISTAN There were 3,057 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 2 GTI Score 9.39/10 Incidents 1,148 Fatalities 3,111 Injuries 3,721 Property Damage 453 Targets Fatalities Groups Responsible Hizb-I-Islami Other Other Government (General) Private Citizens & Property Police Unknown Taliban Source: START GTD

37 PAKISTAN There were 2,243 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 3 GTI Score 9.37/10 Incidents 1,933 Fatalities 2,345 Injuries 5,035 Property Damage 701 Targets Fatalities Groups Responsible Other Private Citizens & Property Other Lashkar-e- Jhangvi Unknown Police Tehrik-i- Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Government (General) Source: START GTD

38 NIGERIA There were 1,812 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 4 GTI Score 8.58/10 Incidents 303 Fatalities 1,826 Injuries 457 Property Damage Fatalities Other Targets Private Citizens & Property Fulani Militants Unknown Groups Responsible Other Police Boko Haram Government (General) Source: START GTD

39 SYRIA There were 1,078 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 5 GTI Score 8.12/10 Incidents 217 Fatalities 1,078 Injuries 1,776 Property Damage 93 Targets Fatalities Groups Responsible Liwa al-haqq Other Other Private Citizens & Property Unknown Al-Nusrah Front Government (General) Journalists & Media Source: START GTD

40 INDIA There were 87 less fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 6 GTI Score 7.86/10 Incidents 624 Fatalities 404 Injuries 719 Property Damage 158 Targets Fatalities Groups Responsible Other Police Other Maoists Private Citizens & Property Communist Party of India - Maoist (CPI- Unknown Maoist) Government (General) Source: START GTD

41 SOMALIA There were 399 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 7 GTI Score 7.41/10 Incidents 197 Fatalities 405 Injuries 492 Property Damage 60 Targets Groups Responsible Unknown Fatalities Other Government (General) Private Citizens & Property Al-Shabaab Military Source: START GTD

42 YEMEN There were 287 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 8 GTI Score 7.31/10 Incidents 295 Fatalities 291 Injuries 583 Property Damage 65 Targets Fatalities Groups Responsible Other Other Government (General) Utilities Unknown Houthis Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Police Source: START GTD

43 PHILIPPINES There were 210 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 9 GTI Score 7.29/10 Incidents 499 Fatalities 292 Injuries 444 Property Damage Fatalities Other Targets Government (General) Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) Groups Responsible New People's Army (NPA) Other Unknown Source: START GTD Private Citizens & Property Business

44 THAILAND There were 115 more fatalities in 2013 than 2002 GTI Rank 10 GTI Score 7.19/10 Incidents 332 Fatalities 131 Injuries 398 Property Damage Fatalities Targets Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) Groups Responsible Other Other Business Separatists Police Unknown Government (General) Source: START GTD

45 AGENDA Results Trends The Largest Terrorist Groups Countries Most Impacted By Terrorism Risk of Terrorism

46 CALCULATING RISK OF TERRORISM Isolates countries without substantial terrorism where conditions are similar Identifies 6 countries in conflict with similar attributes to countries suffering from conflict and terrorism Identifies 7 countries with attributes in bottom 25% for: State sponsored violence Extrajudicial killings Intergroup cohesion Legitimacy of the state High levels of other forms of violence Does not attempt to identify Black Swan events

47 COUNTRIES AT RISK OF INCREASES IN TERRORISM At Risk Countries Angola Bangladesh Burundi Central African Republic Cote d Ivoire Ethiopia Iran Israel Mali Mexico Myanmar Sri Lanka Uganda

48 IEP RESEARCH OUTPUTS Five Key Questions Answered on the Link between Peace and Religion A global statistical analysis on the empirical link between peace and religion. Measuring Goal 16 Identifying priority indicators to measure goal 16 based on key statistical and normative criteria Global Peace Index Report The 2014 GPI Report analyses the state of peace around the world and identifies countries most at risk of becoming less peaceful. Informe Baja California An in depth analysis of the state of peace in Baja California Mexico Peace Index The Mexico Peace Index explores the fabric of peace in all 32 states over the last decade. Pillars of Peace Pillars of Peace is a new conceptual framework for understanding and describing the factors that create a peaceful society. UK Peace Index Report The UK Peace Index explores the fabric of peace across the UK Global Terrorism Index Report 2012 The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is the first index to systematically rank and compare 158 countries according to the impact of terrorism. Informe Sinaloa An in depth analysis of the state of peace in Sinaloa. The Economic Cost of Violence Containment A new methodology that calculates the cost of preventing and containing violence in over 150 countries. Violence Containment Spending in the United States Violence Containment Spending provides a new methodology to categorise and account for the public and private expenditure on containing violence. United States Peace Index Report 2012 The 2012 United States Peace Index (USPI) has found that the U.S. is more peaceful now than at any other time over the last twenty years.

49 #TerrorismIndex