South-Eastern Europe (SEE) and the Stability Pact: New Means for Regional Analysis CROATIA

Transcription

1 PULS MARKET, MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH Trg žrtava fašizma 5, Zagreb, CROATIA, Tel/fax (+385.1) , Šime Ljubića 37, Split, CROATIA, Tel/fax ( ) ; , Suth-Eastern Eurpe (SEE) and the Stability Pact: New Means fr Reginal Analysis CROATIA IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS March 2001 The Assciate Member f page

2 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 3 CONTEXT 4 METHODOLOGY 5 PROCEDURE 5 IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS 6 MAIN FINDINGS 7 THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IN CROATIA 9 SPECIFIC ECONOMIC ISSUES 11 ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION 12 ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN CROATIAN ECONOMY 12 POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS 13 HOW THE ELITE ESTIMATES ITS ROLE IN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES 13 Trust in lcal & natinal authrities and perceived greatest influence 13 CIVIL SOCIETY 15 MEDIA 15 NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS 15 PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS 16 RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS 17 Evaluatin f plitical literacy f citizens and pliticians 17 PUBLIC SERVICES 18 PRIVATISATION OF PUBLIC SERVICES 18 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN CROATIA 19 EU 19 NATO 20 UN 20 STABILITY PACT 21 Key f reginal security 21 INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FEELINGS 23 COUNTRIES IN THE SEE REGION 23 ETHNIC MINORITIES IN CROATIA 28 HOPES AND FEARS 31 page 2

3 INTRODUCTION PULS A research prject fr Suth Eastern Eurpe is rganised by Internatinal IDEA (Institute fr Demcracy and Electral Assistance) in c-peratin with lcal research institutes. In Cratia, Puls d... was respnsible fr the research part. The main aim f this research was t define principal issues and prblems in the cuntry which wuld then be used fr the quantitative research, that is, fr develping a questinnaire inquiry t be implemented in all Sutheast Eurpean cuntries. The gal f the qualitative research is t mnitr the public agenda in the Balkan area. Participants Internatinal IDEA (Institute fr Demcracy and Electral Assistance) Tanja Petvar (prject crdinatr) Puls d... Mura Palašek (prject manager) Sandra Ggić (grup mderatr) Antnija Rašić-Čuval (research assistant) Blanka Matkvić (research assistant) page 3

4 CONTEXT PULS This research was dne exactly ne year after the change f pwer in Cratia (January 2000), when the calitin f six parties tk ver the pwer, ver HDZ, which was in pwer fr ten years ( ). Lcal authrities, hwever, remained the same. Lcal electins are expected in May, this year. Further mre, the situatin in Zagreb is very much different frm the situatin elsewhere in Cratia, especially in war affected areas. In thse areas even sme basic surces are still a prblem, such as water, electricity, transprt, and mst f all husing and the issue f prperty. During the war these areas were destryed and many peple fled away. At this time, althugh sme came back, nt much has changed. The results presented here shuld be viewed in that cntext. page 4

5 METHODOLOGY PULS PROCEDURE Twenty-five in-depth interviews (IDI) were cnducted with peple frm the elite (plitical, ecnmic, public, etc.) All IDI were cnducted in Zagreb during February and March Participants fr IDI were selected primarily by the their sectr f wrk. The final list f participants in in-depth interviews was the fllwing: LIST OF PARTICIPANTS IN IN DEPTH INTERVIEWS POSITION Prf. Of Military Scilgy, Frmer Head Of The Cratian Infrmatin Service Minister f Defence President s Advisr Fr Military Issues Head Of Plice Headquarters In Zagreb, Deputy Minister Fr Internal Affaires Lawyer Lawyer Deputy Prime Minister (Ecnmy) Minister f Envirnmental Prtectin and Zning Minister f Turism representative in the Parliament (SDP) representative in the Parliament (IDS) representative in the Parliament (HDZ) Member f tp-management in Zagreb Bank Strategic manager in McCann-Ericksn Cratia Vice-gvernr f The Central Natinal Bank Head f the City ffice fr Cultural Affaires President s advisr fr Internal Affaires President s advisr fr Public Relatins Chief f Eurpean Cmissin in Zagreb President f the Cratian Helsinki Cmmittee President f the Open Sciety in Cratia Principal editr f the News, Cratian (Natinal) Televisin Principal editr, Jutarnji list President f Scialist Wrker s Party and prfessr at Faculty f Philsphy and Scial Sciences President f Cratia D O M A I N S ARMY GOVERNMENT/ ARMY PRESIDENT OFFICE/ ARMY POLICE JUDICIARY JUDICIARY GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT PARLIAMENT PARLIAMENT PARLIAMENT PRIVATE SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR PRESIDENT OFFICE PRESIDENT OFFICE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS NGO NGO MASS-MEDIA MASS-MEDIA Mst f the in-depth interviews were tape-recrded (N=22), while thers are nly in a written frm. page 5

6 Fr reasns f easier understanding f the research results and the data interpretatin, the methdlgy f the research shall be shrtly explained. IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS In-depth interviews is a qualitative research methd that includes a deep discussin n the prpsed issue. It usually serves as basis fr studying certain respndents' attitudes r evaluatin f certain prblem r issue, which can be usefull when preparing a quantitative research. Thrugh a deeper discussin n certain issues, the real prblems can be understd and defined mre easily, which helps t create a quantitative questinnaire. Results f this kind f research can als be very useful even when interpreting the quantitative results. Hwever, it has t be emphasized that in the qualitative research all quantities, either numbers r percentages, have t be taken with reserve, as they cannt be generalised t the whle ppulatin. page 6

7 MAIN FINDINGS PULS Prir t disclsing sme general cnclusins, it has t be indicated that answers received frm participants were very diverse n mst f tpics. This diversity is spread ut thrugh the reprt, while mre general tendencies, given here, shuld be taken less firmly. Als, it shuld be nted that nt everyne answered all the questins. Amng peple frm the elite, it can be bserved that there are usually tw sides; ne side trusts the Gvernment mre and is mre ptimistic, and the ther side is mre sceptic abut the pace f slutins and has less cnfidence in any authrity, especially n the natinal level. THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IN CROATIA Prblems that Cratian elite mst frequently mentined were ecnmic prblems, which they ften cnnected with the basic scial issue - the unemplyment. One f the mst imprtant ecnmic issues mentined thrughut the interviews was attracting freign investrs t instigate prductin and cnsequently prvide emplyment. Accrding t the pinins f the elite, in the secnd place are issues related t the image f Cratia and its internatinal relatins. Peple frm the elite have a critical view f the Cratian sciety: they said it is a rather cnservative sciety, insufficiently inventive and withut a clear visin and develpment strategy. Legal issues, such as the questin f state f law, and prblems with ineffective natinal administratin and judiciary were als frequently mentined by the elite. Amng ther mentined prblems there were media, divisin f Cratian sciety, cntinuus creatin f civic sciety, c-peratin with the Hague Tribunal, attitude t Crats in Bsnia & Herzegvina, etc. When asked abut whm they cnsider t be respnsible t slve thse prblems, peple frm the 'elite' thught it was first f all the Gvernment, fllwed by the Parliament. There was hardly a cnsensus abut the pace f slving prblems in Cratia. Mst f the participants frm the elite said that gd functining f natinal administratin is ne f the crucial issues that has t be slved quickly. They als mentined decreased budget deficit and freign capital investments. On the ther hand, peple frm the elite culd nt agree abut the pace f slving tw very imprtant prblems: unemplyment and cnstituting the legal state. Obviusly, mre time is needed t slve thse prblems, but, due t their imprtance, they shuld be cnsidered right away. It is bvius and understandable that the elite, especially pliticians, view the prblems frm the distance. They take a wider perspective n prblems, but they are prbably nt cmpletely aware what certain prblem means n individual level, as they are usually nt in directly affected by thse prblems. page 7

8 The elite trusts mstly the Gvernment, then the Prime minister and the President. The least trust is placed with plitical parties. The rle f internatinal institutins in Cratia is, in principle, psitively evaluated. Other cuntries in the Regin are ftenly seen as the ptential market, that is, cperatin n ecnmic basis. A pssible explanatin fr diversity f answers wuld be that, after the changes in Cratia (January 2000), peple in pwer are mre riented t their mre specific duties, especially thse related t legal crdinatin with the Eurpean Unin, rather than creating a mre general verview and speaking in public, which wuld ensure mre cngruent pinins page 8

9 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IN CROATIA PULS PROBLEMS f (IDI) N f participants EXPLAINED SOLUTION (by elite mstly) ECONOMIC ISSUES attracting freign investrs 7 Prductin shall be initiated by attracting freign investrs. Stable tax system, macrecnmic stability and effective judiciary are needed fr that. t create new strategy f develpment 5 Taking ver successful mdels f Asian cuntries, Czech republic and Hungary tax system and macrecnmic cnditins must be stable lack f entrepreneurship/ nnencuragement f initiatives fr develpment f small and medium entrepreneurship Initiating prductin 1 lagged technlgy 2 budget deficit 2 4 Exchange rate shuld instigate exprt, and stable macrecnmic cnditins will create precnditins fr incming f freign capital and investments 4 Reduce bureaucracy and paperwrk t make it easier fr enterpreneurs. refrms f health and pensin sectrs 1 Refrms f pensin and health systems will decrease the budget deficit SOCIAL-ECONOMIC ISSUES decreasing unemplyment 7 Prductin shuld be instigated by attracting freign capital. And befre all, t create lngterm strategy f develpment. lw salaries 1 aid t threatened nes (befre all pensiners and part f yung generatins) 1 IMAGE OF CROATIA & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Attitude tward Eurpe, reginal cperatin, anti-eurpean, xenphbic md Cnservative Cratian sciety - lack f inventiveness Lack f clear and psitive visin - frming a strategy and perspective f develpment/ Lack f identity f the state Lack f public discussin n prblems 1 lack f faith and ptimism 1 divided Cratian sciety 1 5 We cannt ignre huge assciatins that are ur neighburs and which pen ur path t the wrld 2 1 page 9

10 LEGAL ISSUES AND STATE ADMINISTRATION functining f state f law and rule f law Effective state administratin and judiciary, need t decrease state apparatus / the state is extremely expensive Refrm f lcal administratin, decentralisatin C-peratin with the Hague tribunal 1 CIVIL SOCIETY 4 Slve the prblem f crime 3 (1g.) Restructuring f state administratin aimed at minimising and ratinalising 1 increase lcal authrity Media 2 They are unbjective, and nt very infrmative Demcratic prcedure 2 Building civil sciety, lack f civil cnsciusness Extremes rule the plitics 1 Attitude tward Crats in B&H 1 1 Mst frequently disclsed reasns f the prblems were: A. Bad ecnmic plicy in the last ten years, while HDZ was in pwer, bad mnetary and banking plicy, and laws that allwed fr malversatins; B. Laggard prductin technlgy Different issues were named as bstacles in slving thse prblems. They culd be viewed in three mre general aspects: A. Ecnmic-plitical and histric wrng cncept f privatisatin that destryed dmestic ecnmy; frequent plitical changes and unstable macrecnmic envirnment; centralisatin; shrtage f prfessinal management (which is als a prblem f educatin); slw refrm f the state administratin system. B. Scial mentality f peple in Cratia, which was described as insufficiently pen fr new ideas t Eurpe and the West, and lacking spirit f entrepreneurship; C. Educatinal schl system is nt adjusted t the needs f ecnmy The fllwing factrs were usually referred t as pssibly helping t speed up a slutin t ecnmic prblems: A. Cnsultancy and prfessinal help by internatinal ecnmic institutins B. Develping a scenari f the present dynamics f prcesses in Eurpe and a lngterm develpment strategy accrdingly C. Change f mentality D. Reduced bureaucracy E. Giving lans t small entrepreneurs page 10

11 When asked abut the trend f develpment f Cratian ecnmy in the next year, peple frm the elite have quite different pinins. Abut half f them think psitive, and they mstly see the fllwing trend: incentives will start the enterpreneurship, and new laws will help establish legal security. Als, freign investrs will start prductin, and thereby reduce unemplyment. On the ther hand, there is an pinin that big cmpanies shuld still g bankrupt because the current gvernment has n cncept fr their restructuring, and that shall trigger even higher unemplyment. They als brught up a decrease in purchasing pwer, which means that dmestic prducts will nt sell well. A third side is prbably the mst realistic side, and it is abut many difficulties lasting until summer, when a gd turist seasn might be an impulse fr inverting trends, but withut spectacular changes (slwly but steadily). These peple expect the EU's standards t be met in 5-10 years. Almst all participants supprt the idea f market ecnmy, but feel that Cratian ecnmy is still far frm liberal market ecnmy. They believe that we must first stabilise institutins that regulate the 'market race' and then let the game be played n freely. Sme f the participants, hwever, thught the market ecnmy is nt necessarily smething psitive, but still smething that cannt be avided. SPECIFIC ECONOMIC ISSUES A cycle that was usually mentined as the ne leading tward a remedy fr unemplyment is the fllwing: attracting freign investrs will bring t initiating prductin and prviding emplyment fr peple in Cratia. But precnditins fr that are a stable tax system, macrecnmic stability and effective legal functining. In explaining that cycle, ne f respndents - an ecnmic expert - explained that the tw mst imprtant ecnmic issues in it were the fllwing: deficit in natinal budget attracting freign investrs The first ne deals with structural changes causing budget deficit, and these wuld basically tackle the health and pensin systems. Thse tw systems will, cnsequently, need t be refrmed. Bth f these refrms have t be carried ut by the end f next year. Freign investments cannt be separated frm the general ecnmic and plitical situatin, and thus need t be different and mre incentive. Basic cnditins wuld include a stable tax system and effective legal system that prtects the tax cllectin. Thse wuld prvide legal and tax security necessary fr freign investments. Macrecnmic stability wuld result frm all thse changes and refrms, but at same time it wuld be the biggest incentive fr lngterm freign investments. ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION page 11

12 Cratian ecnmic interest is mstly directed at SEE markets, especially ex-yugslavia, because 'we are nt yet ready fr the Western market cmpetitin, and ur ecnmy is cmplementary with the ex-yugslav cuntries'. In that sense, it was mentined that it is t be expected fr c-peratin with B&H, Slvenia, Hungary, Mntenegr and FRY t increase. On the ther hand, althugh in minrity, sme peple thught that Cratia shuld fcus n the EU, beside intensifying ecnmic relatins with the frmer Yugslav cuntries. POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS HOW PEOPLE FROM THE ELITE ESTIMATE THEIR ROLE IN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES Participants frm the elite seemed realistic in estimating imprtance f their wn rle / rle f their institutin in decisin-making prcesses in the cuntry. In that sense, they expressed the fllwing pinins: Their rle is neglectable / wrthless: 3 (Cratian Helsinki Cmmittee, Ministry f Turism, HDZ's MP, lawyer) They have a key rle / imprtant rle : 3 ( president's advisrs, Zagrebačka bank, SDP's MP) Their rle in terms f plitical decisins is imprtant, but it is nt direct / influence n public pinin: 2 (jurnalist, president's advisr) Their rle is determined by law / it is nt plitical: 2 (Ministry f Interir, Cratian Central bank) Trust in lcal & natinal authrities and perceived greatest influence The elite trusts mstly the Gvernment, then the Prime minister and the President (Table 1). The least trust is placed with plitical parties and judiciary, fllwed by administratin, bth n lcal and natinal level. Amng authrities f greatest influence, the elite chse the Gvernment n tp and then the Prime minister, while the President desn't seem t have much influence, in the pinin f the elite. These results are mstly cngruent with the results f the general satisfactin with actins and functining f particular authrities. (Table 2) Table 1. Whm d yu trust mst and whm least in the cuntry? Mayr Wh has greatest influence in the cuntry? mst least Lcal administratin 3 Greatest influence President 3 2 Prime minister 3 5 Gvernment Ministers Ivanisevic and Kvacevic Parliament page 12

13 Plitical parties 6 1 PULS pliticians in general 1 HSLS, Budisa 1 State administratin 2 1 Internatinal cmmunity Directr f Natinal Central Bank 1 Judiciary 1 4 Tables 2. Hw d yu evaluate functining and activities f the fllwing institutins, n the scale 1-10? N Mean Prime minister President Gvernment Internatinal cmmunity Parliament Mayr State administratin Lcal administratin Plitical parties Tables 3. Usual cmments frm bth sides n individual subjects f gvernment: ELITE Gvernment and the Prime Minister They are the mst effective, they deal with practical things, d hard wrk and deal with prblems very well, they stick t principles and slved a great deal f tugh issues. Despite being the mst cncrete, they had sme failures. Level f the prime minister's cmmunicatin with the public is shameful. President He is c-perative, makes friends abrad, initiates discussin n imprtant issues Parliament State administratin That is a pluralistic bdy where different attitudes are expressed, their internal rules make sure that each representative in the best pssible way cntributes t making gd decisins Paste f law-making is relatively quick, but nt all slutins are gd Des nt respect decisins f the Cnstitutinal curt, incmpetent and inert page 13

14 Lcal administratin Plitical parties Judiciary They all expect the state authrities t slve their lcal prblems They are dealing with things that have nthing t d with them (fr example: relatins with the Hague) Their rle is t big in ther scial segments and als in terms f Parliament's decisins They are nt demcratically structured Inefficacius page 14

15 CIVIL SOCIETY MEDIA Negative judgement n the media is verwhelming. T get reliable and true infrmatin frm the media, mst f the participants find very hard. Therefre, many f them use many different surces f infrmatin. Primarily, almst everyne frm the elite reads different daily newspapers, watch natinal TV and listen t radi (bth natinal and lcal). They evaluated rather psitively lcal radi statins, especially Radi 101, and Nvi list amng daily newspapers. Hwever, they pinted ut infrmal surces (clleagues, friends, secret surces), prfessinal and gvernmental publicatins and Internet as being mre reliable surces. This relates t the fact that Cratian media were nt highly independent during the last ten years. Despite the change f Cratian authrities, there are still n significant changes in the impartiality and prfessinality f the media, which is bvius frm the fllwing statements f the participants: Newspapers are in fact a mean f emtinally mbilising peple. Media must be intermediary, but nw they became independent and manipulative. They prduce news instead f transferring them. That made peple reading newspapers t see the stries as being fictin. Infrmatin, in fact, are cllected frm gssip, whispering, etc. Yu cannt rely n them. Sensatinalism is the rule They are nt prfessinal and impartial, and reprters d nt have enugh knwledge in cmparisn with jurnalists frm the wrld's papers. Wrst evaluated press was the ne filtering and frming infrmatin in respect t the plitical backgrund. Media are plitically biased As ther reliable surce f infrmatin are freign media, that view situatin frm wider perspective and reprt mre realistically because f nt being invlved in events here, but are nt always entirely relevant surces f infrmatin. Mst ftenly mentined were CNN, BBC and SKY News. NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANISATIONS In general, participants supprt the basic idea f NGOs, seeing them as rganisatins that: Take part in building the civil sciety Offer alternative develpment cncepts Indicate specific prblems and help reslve them Make it pssible fr citizens t realise their interests Hwever, when asked abut NGOs in Cratia pinins amng the elite vary a lt: Psitive trend They had an imprtant rle in demcratic changes in Cratia, especially since They had curage t vercme fear and say the truth. page 15

16 Negative trend ne radical pinin frm a military prfessinal. PULS It was prven that they are nt nn-gvernmental rganisatins, but rganisatins cnnected with sme plitical parties, and they were the parties' main supprt in getting t pwer. They shuld be critical abut the Gvernment and plitical parties and frce them, in such a way, t wrk better A cmment f ne f the NGO prfessinals gives maybe the best picture f the current state f NGOs in Cratia: They shuld nt be underestimated r verestimated. They were significant when HDZ came dwn frm pwer. Afterwards, sme peple frm thse rganisatins entered the gvernment, and part f them became passive. Nw they are marginalised because they are nt needed by thse wh needed them recently. Mst f the NGOs were funded in the beginning f the '90s, and largely that was mtivated by quantity f mney that came frm abrad. Nn-gvernmental scene sftened the prblem f unemplyed intellectuals. A part f thse rganisatins lst ut f sight their missin and d nly fr what they can get the mney. Rle they played during the parliamentary electin campaign is extremely imprtant. They are imprtant fr building civil and demcratic sciety, but at the mment very unprfessinal. PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS When asked abut prfessinal assciatins, participants usually think f trade unins and entrepreneurs' rganisatins. Althugh participants mstly agree n the rle f prfessinal rganisatins, which they see as prtecting their members and pursuing ethics, prfessinalism and capabilities, their satisfactin with the wrk f prfessinal rganisatins in Cratia tends t be mre negative than psitive. This evaluatin, hwever, usually refers t the perid befre the last electins. This can be seen frm the fllwing statements: f Psitive trend 2 It is gd that they are active, but they started lately dealing mre with representing interest f the peple they stand fr. Negative trend 7 Trade unins, during the first part f Cratian state, t much hung t patritism and passively bserved sacking f peple frm wrk. The biggest trade unin is clse with new Gvernment. Als ther unins are unprfessinal, they are dealing with plitics t much, and t little with what is written in their minutes. They are disrganised and unprfessinal Shared pinin 3 They all defend their interests, and it depends n peple hw they wuld d it. When it is abut reasnable peple, things functin well and everything can be discussed and agreed upn. They d nt have t have necessarily a psitive rle, they represent interests f their members which can be cntrary t cmmn interests. They are still in prcess f prfiling and frming. page 16

17 RELIGIOUS INSTITUTIONS PULS As fr religius institutins, participants actually thught f Cathlic church, which has a majr rle in Cratia, and they tended t evaluate it rather negatively. The main reasn fr this can easily be seen frm the fllwing statements: It did nt react t mass crimes and fraud. It placed itself in functin f daily plitics and its shrt-term interest. Nw it hlds an arrgantly privileged psitin (Vatican agreements), s that priests' salaries are paid frm taxes the citizens pay regardless f being religius r nt. After the gvernment changed, it is smewhat mre critical t negative things in sciety, but it des nt accept public critique. Large part f priests is clearly siding with the HDZ. It nly criticises, and it shuld mre actively participate in slving prblems In principle, it attempts t be a psitive scial factr, but it shuld nt apprach nn-religius subjects in a plitical manner But there was als ne very psitive cmment It had extremely psitive rle in prtecting Cratian integrity, Cratian culture, and in creating Cratian state and mbilising Cratian peple. Participants thught that the Cathlic church and ther religius institutins shuld have fllwing rle: Authrities f the Church and the state shuld be clearly separated and defined. The church shuld nt interfere with plitics, and it shuld deal with individual unfrtunate cases and scial aid. Church shuld be clearly divided frm civil institutins and it shuld nt deal with everyday plitical and scial issues. It shuld deal with believers and religius issues Church shuld even mre cntribute t mral and spiritual renewal f Cratian man Church culd cntribute t understanding f the ther man, t lve and tlerance Evaluatin f plitical literacy f citizens and pliticians The elite evaluated plitical literacy f citizens as better than plitical literacy f pliticians! Pliticians d nt have rhetrical, technical capabilities, as neither the attitude t cmprehensibly represent certain psitins, and they are frequently amral. They are nt aware that they culd be replaced and d nt have respnsibility t vters. Citizens, hwever, are capable f accepting a rw f damaging injustices withut bjectins, they are incapable f articulating well their interests, they lack awareness that smething culd be dne and that they are entitled t actins. page 17

18 PUBLIC SERVICES It can be bserved there are tw rather distinct grups in evaluatin f public services. First grup wuld cnsist f basic public services such as water, heating, city transprtatin and electricity which were evaluated rather well. Other grup wuld cntain all ther public services. It can be nted that the elite evaluates the plice rather psitively. Anther big prblem abut which they all mstly agree is the army that definitely needs t be transfrmed. Tables 4. Hw wuld yu rate the fllwing public services n the scale 1-10? N Mean Water Heating City transprt Electricity Plice Health system Cmmunal services Educatin system Army Scial care PRIVATISATION OF PUBLIC SERVICES Mst participants are rather suspicius f privatisatin f public services. Althugh many f them actually agreed with it, they had sme bjectins: s the criteria f privatisatin shuld be transparent, there shuld be a public tender, any kind f mnply shuld be prevented and the law adjusted. It culd be als nted that many participants supprted partial privatisatin, where the military, plice, and water wuld be cmpletely excluded. page 18

19 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS IN CROATIA In principle, rle f internatinal institutins in Cratia is psitively evaluated, but there are still different pinins. Psitive trend it helps Cratia adapt t Eurpean standards in prfessinal, technical and financial refrms: thse are needed and Cratia is unable t d it itself. Negative trend Internatinal institutins pressure Cratia while 'lking after their wn interest' and they are nt abslutely psitive. We talk here abut inflexible, bureaucratic and rigid rganisatins, that frequently d nt cnsider specific characteristics f a certain cuntry. Shared pinins We have t define ur aims, decide what we want and what we wuld nt accept, since we are nw halfway between the planned and market ecnmy, and internatinal institutins d nt care abut that. Internatinal institutins seem t be better while perfrming their influence n Cratia than they really are. Generally speaking, main strategic bjective f Cratia is t becme the EU and the NATO member, and it is therefre necessary fr Cratia t pen up t the internatinal cmmunity and its influence. EU Psitive attitude tward EU is prevailing. The EU has determined develpment f whle eastern and suth-eastern Eurpe. It plays a psitive rle in trying t cnnect different natins, regins, cultures and cuntries f different levels f ecnmic develpment. It helps us establish demcratic standards, as we d nt have demcratic traditin. It is ur nly chance t get ut f crisis. The EU cannt slve ur prblems fr us, it can nly help us, but we have t slve them urselves. The psitive attitude is smewhat undermined by mre sceptic pinins, such as: The EU membership is wishful fr plitical, but nt fr ecnmic reasns. Cratia is ecnmically nt strng enugh t jin the EU. Getting near t the EU shuld be dne in a way that it is nt f servant nature by imitatin and serving the centres f pwer. The EU des nt always have a clear plitics. Reginal apprach is a huge mistake. If it will be in the EU's interest t aid Cratia in slving prblems, it will d it. The prblem is that sme cuntries can still nt recncile with the breakdwn f Yugslavia. What can the EU d fr us? The EU finances develpment prgrams. It culd help us in liberalisatin f trade and with limitless pening f Eurpean market fr Cratian prducts. Thrugh investments, it eminently influences ecnmic and plitical develpment. page 19

20 It can teach us standards f demcracy, decency, prductin. By urging us t fulfil cnditins fr the EU membership, it stimulates us t d smething we culd nt d urselves. NATO Attitudes tward the NATO are very diverse, but there are still a few mre participants frm the elite being supprtive f Cratian membership t the NATO. Psitive trend The NATO's rle in stabilising Suth-eastern Eurpe is significant, and fr us its supprt is useful as well as jining the Partnership fr peace Jining the NATO is psitive fr us fr security reasns but als fr diminishing military csts. Hwever, jining the NATO will cst us a lt fr purchase f mdern weapns and equipment. When we becme a member, ur military will be depliticised, and military frce decreased because membership will bring us prtectin, and als investments will be mre easily dne Our gal is full membership in the NATO and that wuld guarantee security, and als the security and defence csts will be lwer. Negative trend It prtects nly the interests f the USA Their services are nt free f charge Against the NATO, because it is useless, anachrnic institutin, but with a pwerful lbby; hwever, their actins in Cratia are psitive The NATO is mystifying itself in rder t survive. Cratia cannt live up t the NATO's armament standards. Jining it wuld bring us mre prblems than slutins. We shuld c-perate nly n diplmatic level. Mst frequently mentined cnditins t enter NATO were: C-rdinating with the NATO standards the military rganisatin, technical cnditins, legal backgrund and cntrl ver the military Cratian participatin in the NATO's military interventins UN A rather negative attitude prevails n the UN, because it did nt seem t be very effective in Cratia, and it is viewed as representing the interests f 'the big'. page 20

21 STABILITY PACT PULS Very diverse pinins were expressed in case f the Stability Pact amng the elite. Generally speaking, the attitude tward the idea f the Stability Pact is nt negative, but disappintment arises while evaluating its effectiveness. Sme participants believed it culd actually help cuntries in the Regin. Psitive trend That is a well cmpsed mdel f bringing cuntries in the regin tgether arund prjects that matter t them It can help us getting the means, but we have t be mre active Negative trend: It cannt result in mre significant ecnmic r plitical effects. It is abut fire brigade measures Until nw it was nt prven t be an verly useful institutin and it let dwn ur expectatins. Its gal is actually questinable. Stability pact was launched as t-be-channel thrugh which the mney will cme. It seems that the Stability pact is nly a matter f marketing. Shared pinin n the Pact It is abut reginal c-peratin f limited character, but necessary after the experience f war. Well cnceived prject, but insufficient number f cncrete actins The Pact is an evil we have t take, and it enables us t cnnect t the wrld Key f reginal security Althugh there were many different pinins n what is the key f security in SEE regin, mst f the pinins culd be bserved n tw levels; Internal level internal prblems f all r particular cuntries that need t be slved by demcratic changes - primarily by cnstitutin f legal state and the rule f law. External level freign relatins with cuntries in the Regin, especially n plitical and ecnmic issues, and mre individual prblems f ther cuntries in the Regin. Slving internal prblems f each cuntry and demcratisatin: establishing state f law, rule f law, establishing civil cntrl ver the military and plice. By Schengen agreement, the members accepted t slve a part f security issues as a jint prblem. Cherishing gd neighburhd relatins, by plitical bilateral meetings f all with all, ecnmic c-peratin, jint prjects. Plitical integratin f all cuntries in the EU, but f each separately, accrding t its rhythm. Paste f demcratic changes in FR Yugslavia and B&H. Reasn and the end f «war in heads f peple». Slving the Ksv issue. Ecnmic develpment f cuntries in the regin. Balance f pwer. page 21

22 One participant gave a mre thrugh explanatin n what he understd as being security in the Regin: Security means that all cuntries in the regin wuld accept t slve mutual cnfrntatin issues by demcratic ways, thrugh talks. That will be reached when all these cuntries will be integrated in the EU and when they realise that penness tward a neighbur and wider internatinal cmmunity is a cnditin fr its better living. Basic prblem is the internatinal cmmunity nt understanding that there have been internatinal disputes in this area fr centuries, and that they shuld be slved in a different manner frm the way they are slving them nw. Hw will the life f peple frm Suth-eastern Eurpean regin develp in the next several years? Mutual relatins will slwly nrmalise when all understand that neighburs shuld nt be lved, but that als des nt mean that they shuld make wars. Cultural and Ecnmic cperatin shall intensify, and that will cntribute t tlerance and mutual understanding. Turbulent; despite prgress there will be steps backward. It culd be gd with significant help frm Eurpe and the USA. They will struggle with their ecnmic prblems and fr jining the EU as sn as pssible. page 22

23 INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS AND FEELINGS COUNTRIES IN THE SEE REGION Participants were asked t express their feelings tward different cuntries in the Regin using just a wrd r shrt sentence that cmes first t mind when particular cuntry is mentined. The answers were, as in mst previus questins, very diverse. It is interesting t nte that assciatins - especially negative - were given mstly frm an impartial perspective. It can be assumed that participants with less recent infrmatin n the cuntry expressed mre persnal/ biased judgements. The assciatins lay the grund fr cnclusin that the attitude tward ex-yugslav cuntries is clearer than fr ther cuntries in the Regin, especially Rmania and Bulgaria, but als Macednia. This might be the cnsequence f rather weak infrmatin n thse cuntries in Cratian media. One f the mst frequent assciatins n mst f the cuntries in the Regin is 'the ptential market', which allw fr a rather pragmatic view f Cratia, but als its wish fr prgress and develpment. page 23

24 SLOVENIA Nrthwest - gegraphically and in terms f prgress / prsperity and demcracy / we envy them fr having gne far frward cmpared t us and we were n the same level + neighburs / trading partners + Bay f Piran - Wnderful and neat cuntry, like a candy bx / rganised, little cute cuntry + small, clsed cuntry 0 Ljubljanska banka - sft fascism - by their capabilities they are nt better than we are - they have a cmplex because f Cratia - they are making mney thanks t us - we cannt c-perate mre intensely in plitics because they want t depart away frm cuntries f ex-yugslavia as much as pssible - skiing + BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA plitical and ecnmic partner/ jint interests / future partner/ necessary neighbur fr gd c-peratin + thrn by war / finished with Daytn/ Balkan multiplied - internatinal cmmunity/ experiment f internatinal cmmunity / it shuld stay lnger under internatinal prtectin mandate chas/ ttal disrder / is nt a state - dear and pr cuntry + Sft brder - tiger's fur many prblems / will need lng time t get back int nrmal - it must recgnise that Crats are cnstitutive peple - we paid a lt fr interfering with B&H affairs - ne-day guests n Adriatic cast - smewhat sentimental fr Sarajev + ćevapi (kebab) + page 24

25 SERBIA black hle / apcalypse / destabilising factr / huge questin mark / tugh future - still existing frustratins, but ecnmic interest will prevail, hence nrmalised relatins are t be expected / ptential partner if they get rid f Milsevic's plitics an its prtagnists / prspectively lng-term c-peratin + aggressin / they must excuse themselves fr what they have dne - Milšević - still a huge prblem - nly started transitin which will last lng - if they remain quiet it will be kay + prblem until yesterday nly 0 emphasis n rural aspect - it depends n us if it becmes favurable Cratian market + they are nt ur enemies + they regressed last ten years - Kštunica is transitinal slutin 0 frequent guests in future + KOSOVO permanent prblem/ slutin nt in view - barrel full f gun pwder / ttal disrder / cancer f Eurpe fr the next 50 years - ptential prblem/ main Serbian prblem - tensins and dissatisfactin / hatred will nt easily disappear as it is inherited by generatins - prblem f human rights - suth f Serbia - Albanian Gandhi psitin is still supprted + Cratia shuld nt have special relatins with Ksv - insufficiently defined - Strike f cal-miners in 1989 VOJVODINA well being / prsperity/ mre develped and civilised part f FRY + crssrads f different cultures / intercultural and crrect decent atmsphere / nly multinatinal unit that survived n the territry f ex Yugslavia + autnmy + different circumstances than in Ksv/ significant test fr judging Yugslav demcratisatin 0 internal affair f fry/ part f Serbia - C-perating neighbur / psitive attitude + prblem/ next bmb t explde - Čanak nthing special will happen 0 Balašević + page 25

26 MONTENEGRO independent / prsperus / huge ptentials + Divided by issue f independence / tw cnfrnted ptins / discuraged but still tendency tward independence 0 mst dynamic part f fry/ independent within fry + disagreement between wishes and pssibilities / they have n influence and need internatinal allies - reginal questin mark - Third bmb in Serbia - they excused themselves t us and became awaken + ptential turist partner + have this crazy idea t be Mnte Carl n the Adriatic 0 the cleanest water I ever drank + independent / prsperus / great ptentials + MACEDONIA gallping natinal prblems due t grwth f Albanian ppulatin / unslvable and permanent prblems between Albanians and Macednians - plitically unslved prblem/ wrse prblem than B&H/ numerus prblems - the nly pst Yugslav republic that reached its independence withut a bldshed / ptentially it was the mst unstable, but it succeeded in aviding all dangers + mre a prblem fr Greece and Serbia / litmus paper because f interest f Serbia and Greece - ecnmic prblems/ it has half as many inhabitants, and the same number f unemplyed peple as Cratia - nice and patient peple / friends / small, nice and friendly cuntry + small chance fr deterirating situatin 0 numerus prblems, but prmising future 0 hard situatin t survive - we have n plitical prblems + pssible Cratian partner/ ecnmic partner + nt t interesting as turists 0 ROMANIA des nt have a clear plitical element / functins withut state identity - pr / bad ecnmy / undevelped/ pr cuntry with little t ffer - perspective/ prmising, but t slw + we have n special relatins and c-peratin / we have n traditinal cnnectins 0 pssibly a partner mre likely than Bulgaria + trade partner + huge prblems - it is t far away 0 page 26

27 BULGARIA perspective/ prmising, but t slw / it is expected t prgress mre fast than Rmania + unclear relatins with neighburs / Macednia - pr / bad ecnmy - plitical cnfrntatins / prblems - clear idea abut identity / clear cncept n wn geplitical rle in Eurpe + far away / we are nt t cnnected /we dn't have traditinal cnnectins 0 interesting develpment 0 Balkan assciatins - pssible partner, but withut significance 0 trade partner + ALBANIA undevelped / srrw / ttal chas / breakdwn f sciety / ecnmic chas / pr - cnfrntatins / tribal clashes / anarchy - weight f Ksv and pverty is pulling them dwn - lng perid fr nrmalisatin is needed - pssible partner/ space fr Cratian ecnmy / interesting fr turism ut f curisity / partner in further future + unused market / ecnmically small - lng-term prblems/ cmplex - psitive attitude + perhaps has a chance fr develpment fr being a ne-natin state + fr us it is plitically insignificant 0 dealing mre with thers than with themselves - GREECE the clearest natinal plitics n the Balkans / ptential surce f insecurity because f relatins with its neighburs / seems mre like its Balkan neighburs than the EU/ tgether with Eurpe, but uncivilised arguments with neighburs / Turkey/ Macednia/Cyprus - imprtant fr its EU membership / imprtant in Balkan regin / member f NATO + ecnmically well-being + nice cuntry + it is useful t c-perate with them + pssibly slwing dwn Cratian jining f the EU - hping that Adriatic -Inic rad will put us tgether + in terms f turism Greece is ur cmpetitin - page 27

28 ETHNIC MINORITIES IN CROATIA PULS Instead f an explanatin here is an answer f ne f the participants wh gives a rather clear and bjective view n the relatin between Crats and ther ethnic grups in Cratia. Thereafter fllw lists f answers n relatins with particular ethnic minrities. It all depends n the kind f Crats we are dealing with, «big nes» r «small nes». Fr «big» Crats, yu are either a Crat r an enemy. They were prduced by idelgy that ruled past ten years. Hwever, xenphbia, intlerance, aggressive attitude tward ther natinal minrities is significantly lesser than earlier. Whle climate changed s that yu can - n plitical level and frm the largest part f the media - hear mainly civil rhetric which des nt differentiate peple based n natinality, as it was during the past ten years. Althugh, in smaller settlements where war left its traces, where many peple were killed r are still sught after, there are still quiet huge tensins between natinalities, but I think the time will cure that slwly. page 28

29 Serbs Mslems Italians Rma Hungarians Jews We still have cllective attitude that they are the nes t blame fr the war, there is n awareness that Cratia failed with a part f its citizens f Serb natinality, and that is a surce f pssible prblems. Mistrust and a dse f alertness, prblem culd be slved in apprximately ten years. Sme Serbs are cmpletely integrated and feel like Cratian citizens, and thers nt, while thers see the Serbs still as actually members f anther entity. The wunds f war have nt healed, but the situatin is becming nrmal, there are n tensins. Many prblems, I hpe fr less emtins. N relatins at all, dissatisfactry. ff There are prblems in sme settlements. They have been thrugh three stages: real Cratian brethren, Turks r balia (r enemies), and current stage is an attempt t neglect them. FFF There are prblems in sme settlements with many refugees frm B&H. Prgress and less mistrust, gd relatins. fff Relatins between Crats and Muslims are imprtant in B&H, they bear mre respnsibility. That issue will be slved relatively quickly. A cnstructive element in Cratia. Many prejudices tward them. They are smething that Cratia des nt cmprehend t be its indirect cnnectin with the EU, they were an bsessin f HDZ, underwent a lt f pressure. N prblems, the prblem is mre f media nature. N tensins, n. N prblems, gd relatins. Ff Very significant partner, Istrian minrity is a bridge f c-peratins, I think that histrical burden shuld be lifted. They are nt acknwledge as an ethnic grup, they are assciated with dirt, ignrance, stupidity and larceny, racist perceptin is mst clearly shwn in this case, catastrphic relatins. Fff There is a guilt f the state, because their peple are utsiders t legal system, 90% d nt have a permanent address, their children mainly d nt g t schl, they lack minimum scial and ther rights envisaged by the Cnstitutin. Hwever, they are t be blamed because they d nt functin as cmmunity and d nt express their interests t the Gvernment. Cratia will have t start treating the Rma as minrity in real sense f that wrd, but they will als have t transfrm their wn scial psitin. Ff It will be hard t adjust them t a cultural level, but there will be n prblem. They are lst in space. They had psitive image, it is frgtten nwadays that Cratian natinalism evlved exactly frm cnfrntatin with the Hungarians N prblem. f ffff Maybe the best relatins. Twfld attitude, there is metaphysical anti-semitism in Cratia, but als appearing is the negative perceptin f flattery t the Jews, there is very few f them but they d have their parliamentary representative. Peple wuld be happy if they culd hate Jews equally publicly as the Serbs.ff They were nt treated crrectly until recently, nw sme mves have partially satisfied them fr it. Swift prgress. Gd relatins. Integral and cnstructive part f sciety. Small grup, but sensitive relatins, relatins f Cratian cultural institutins with Jewish cmmunity shuld be develped, and the Jews shuld get integrated int Cratian sciety. They are dealing with histry t much, but relatins are generally very gd. page 29

30 D yu feel that yu belng t yur natinal cmmunity? PULS Feelings f belnging t the natinal cmmunity are quite imprtant t peple frm the Cratian elite. Hwever, althugh a majrity f them feel they belng t their natinal cmmunity, thse feelings are mstly related t the culture f ur sciety, histry, peple living here and the place where they grew up and d nt seem t be radical r natinalistic in their nature. On the ther hand, sme participants hardly have any feelings f natinal belnging. The fllwing answers culd illustrate thse feelings and quantitative relatin between the tw grups. YES: 7 I'm a Crat, but nt a natinalist. Thse wh d nt want gd fr their peple dn't want gd fr thers. We fulfil ur needs befre all within ur natin, which des nt mean that we shuld be clse t thers. Using differences, we can c-perate well and live in ur jint hme I like it in Cratia, I feel gd here. I feel I belng here because f culture and histry. NO: 4 If I feel I belng here, in my hmetwn. I have mre things tgether with urban guys frm Belgrade r Ljubljana, wh grew up listening t same type f music r reading same bks, than with sme Crats. My parents didn't teach me that. I am f civil rientatin. I cannt say that I feel sme natinal belnging. I dn't think that is relevant fr my plitical awareness. Have yu ever thught f mving frm this regin? YES: 5 Because f natinalism and ecnmic prblems. NO: 7 Just fr a shrt while, but nt fr gd. I was ffered t wrk abrad, but I reviewed the ffer and decided t live in Cratia. Here are my rts and friends. I am nt that much tied t Cratia that I culd nt leave. tw respndents wuld never mve ut, they think it wuld benefit their children if they mved ut f regin page 30

31 HOPES AND FEARS Hpes That we will ecnmically prgress and recver faster than until nw and that we will becme a develped cuntry where it is nice t live 6 That the citizens will becme mre cnstructive and active in building their future 1 That demcratic ptentials have already been created t, hpefully, create ne demcratic civil sciety That we shall culturally and mentally becme part f Eurpe Fears Retrgrade prcesses (cllective parania, chas, witch hunt) which culd happen due t ecnmic prblems and dissatisfactin f majrity f citizens. We are prgressing much slwer than we culd, because f insufficiently curageus and fast mves. 3 N natinal energy and awareness f what shuld be dne. Private interest and cnflicts are ruling, and thse cnflicts culd deterirate because it seems like that wuld be in smebdy's interest. 2 Frm Crats chsing the wrst parts f their histry and turning them int a visin fr the future (NDH, ustashe) That my generatin will be remembered by failure, because there will be n changes fr the better and that I will be sad because all my children did nt mve abrad. That yung educated peple will cntinue t emigrate. That we will remain the Balkanians page 31