CHANGING ROMANIA BY MIGRATION EXPERIENCES: THE ITALIAN ROAD IN A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

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1 CHANGING ROMANIA BY MIGRATION EXPERIENCES: THE ITALIAN ROAD IN A COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE Dumitru Sandu, Centre for Migration Studies, Faculty of Sociology and Social Work, University of Bucharest (UB) Slides for the presentation to the Italian Cultural Week, UB, February 20 th Community level analysis was developed after the presentation. Results of data processing and their interpretation could be used by proper citation. The data analysis for this presentation benefitted from the support of two European projects the author is involved in (FP7 - TEMPER and HORISON YMOBILITY)

2 CONTENTS 3. Why and how on the Italian road of Romanian migration abroad 4. The Approach 5. Distribution of the Romanian diaspora, 2016 (%) 6. Migration regions of Romania 7. Romanian migration fields by origin counties and main country destinations 8. Main destination fields of Romanian migration abroad 9. Destinations having similar county origins in Romania, Temporary emigration to Italy is specific for people from poor communities 11. Community migration fields by main destinations of their temporary emigration 12. The Italian field of migration is divided into three subfields function of origin community type 13. Temporary migrants by destination country and the profile of origin communities 14. Recent temporary emigration of working age population from Romania by destination employment category (ISCO88.com), 2011 (%) 15. Intraeuropean fileds of social attachment 16. The votes for Klaus Johannis at the presidential elections in 2014 in Romania were influenced by the main migration destination at the local community level in Romania 17. Does migration experience brings housing modernity at community level? 18. Did migration abroad contribute to increasing or decreasing the local human development index (LHDI)? 19. Conclusions on analysing the migration field from Romania to italy (1) 20. Conclusions on analysing the migration field from Romania to italy (2) 21. Annex 1:Recent Migration fields of Romania by analytical regions of emigration and main destination 22. Annex 2: Older Migration fields by county origins and country destinations 2

3 Introduction WHY AND HOW ON THE ITALIAN ROAD OF ROMANIAN MIGRATION ABROAD Are there specific effects of migration experiences at the level of origin local communities function of the key destination country as different from the total migration experience of a local community? Are there Italian, Spanish, German, French, UK etc. alternative modernizations for local communities in Romania function of the key country of destination from the reference community? The Italian road or pattern of influence will be considered in comparison with other destinations. The culture we are discussing here is in the large anthropological sense of Edward Taylor (1871)*. *The culture is * that complex whole which includes knowledge, beliefs, arts, morals, law, customs, and any other capabilities and habits acquired by [a human] as a member of society ( Primitive culture: researches into the development of mythology, philosophy, religion, art, and custom,vol. 2, J. Murray). The slides for this presentation are also a first stage in preparing a series of analyses on Romanian migration abroad by destination fields of migration as opposed to the standard pattern that was largely practiced of analysing the phenomenon at the level of the whole country or by specific communities. 3

4 Introduction THE APPROACH 1. Romania migration regions: What are the counties of maximum relevance for different migration fields (destinations) What are the fields of similar regional (county) origins? 2. What are the specific community profiles for different migration fields? 3. Individual level: what are the specific occupations for the migrants going to different destinations? 4. Local level consequences of migration to different fields: Voting behaviours Modernity of the community housing stock Impact of migration on local development as measured by local human development index (LHDI in 2002 and 2011) 5. Social transnationalism (S.Mau, 2010*): what are the main foreign countries of attachment in Europe? * Mau, S. (2010). Social transnationalism : life worlds beyond the nation-state. London: Routledge. 4

5 National level DISTRIBUTION OF THE ROMANIAN DIASPORA, 2016 (%) Migration profiles of origin communities are expected to be combinations of these diaspora destinations. The hypothesis is tested in the section on community level analysis. Local communities of origin are expected to be mainly oriented towards Italy, Spain, Italy+Spain, Spain+Italy, Germany+Austria, France, UK+Ireland, USA+Canada, Hungary, multiple destinations Italy Spane Germany UK Hungary USA Israel Canada France Austria Other Source: UN Migrants Stock by Origin and Destination, UN Population Division,

6 Regional level MIGRATION REGIONS OF ROMANIA Migration regions of Romania are more fragmented than the historical regions of the country (see the next two slides). Italy oriented destinations are mainly located in the historical region of Moldova, excepting Suceava county that is formed by localities (communes and cities) that are multiple destinations oriented. Neamt is the typical country from Moldova by its very high association with emigration towards Italy. Secondary destinations for Moldova counties are towards Ireland (for localities from Neamt), United Kingdom ( for Bacau), Greece and Cyprus (for Iasi). Muntenia historical region is mainly Spain oriented, with Teleorman as a nucleus for this Spain orientation. Tulcea county from Dobrogea is closer to the Muntenia pattern with dominant orientation towards Spain and, secondary, towards Greece. The secondary destination for the North of Muntenia is towards Cyprus and UK+Belgium (for localities from Dambovita). Oltenia historical region is segmented between Italy orientation (for Gorj and Dolj), Spain (for Olt) and multiple destinations mainly Greece, UK, Belgium and France ( for Valcea and Mehedinti). German destination is specific for counties of Timis, Arad and Sibiu. Austian stream is of maximum intensity for migrants from Caras-Severin. The Transilvanian cluster of counties of Spain orientation is formed by Bistrita-Nasaud, Cluj and Alba. Hungarian field is formed by two subfields, onen of higher concetration ethnic migration from Covasna, Harghita and Mures, and the second one including Salaj and Bihor that closer to Hungary and with lower etnic emigrants. Hargita, Covasna and Mures are the counties having the highest association with emigration towards a certain destination abroad (Hungary). France orientation is specific for people from Maramures and Satu Mare.. Secondary and multiple destinations are present also in almost all the counties from Transilvania. Bucharest and Ilfov form a region of multiple destinations. 6

7 Regional level ROMANIAN MIGRATION FIELDS BY ORIGIN COUNTIES AND MAIN COUNTRY DESTINATIONS Main country destinations are in capital letters and secondary destinations by acronyms. Example: Italy is the main destination for migrants from Neamt county and Ireland the secondary detinations for migrants from the same county. Data source: National Institute for Statistics, 2011 census, 1.1 million migrants abroad by origin and destination. The association among origin and destinations is given by adjusted standardised residuals. Appendixes 1 and 2 presents maps that are specified for recent (less than one year at the census moment) and older (more than one year abroad at the census moment) categories of migrants. Computations and graphics DS. 7

8 CANADA IREALAND BELGIUM PORTUGAL Regional level MAIN DESTINATION FIELDS OF ROMANIAN MIGRATION ABROAD Intensity of association origindestination HUNGARY 300 HG 250 CV ITALY 180 SPAIN GERMANY MS 170 NT FRANCE 160 TR SB 150 VR, BC BN ` SM AUSTRIA USA 110 TM SM 100 AB CS B 90 IS DB 80 GL, BT MM BH 70 CJ CL, PH TM UK GREECE 60 OT MS,AD SM SV B SJ 50 SV AG CS AD SV BV, CJ SV, B BN SV 40 IL BH SM, DB VL SM 30 VS BZ, GR BV AD MM MH,AD VL BH,NT IS, TC, MH CJ 20 DJ, GJ HD TC,BL HD BH BN, MM B,MH, SJ GJ BH,B BV BC, SM CJ GJ Regional origins for migration to Italy do not overlap with those for Spain, the second largest destination for Romanian (temporary) migration abroad. This means that the two fields are rather specific by their occupational structure (see slide 12). The regional origins for the Italian field partially overlap only with those for Ireland, UK and Greece. The association among origin and destinations is given by adjusted standardised residuals. Values on the left side of graph are adjusted standised residuals. Computations and graphics DS. 8

9 Regional level DESTINATIONS HAVING SIMILAR COUNTY ORIGINS IN ROMANIA, 2011 CA, CH and USA are the most similar destinations by regional origins in Romania Temporary emigrations to Italy are rather specific and have similarities at a low level with those to Greece. Specific Spain origins are highly specialised and do not overlap with those for other country destinations. The degree of origin similarity among destination profiles are measured by Person correlation coefficients. Data source: NIS, 2011 census, 1.1 million temporary emigrants. Synilarity degree 0.18 CA CH USA HU DK 0.14 AT DE PT SE FR IER UK NL Acronymes AT Austria CA Canada CH Stwitherland CY Cyprus DE Germany DK Danmark ES Spain FR France GR Greece HU Hungary IER Ireland IT Italy NL Netherlands PT Portugal SE Sweden UK UK USA USA D.SANDU - CHANGING ROMANIA BY MIGRATION EXPERIENCES: THE ITALIAN ROAD 0.05 CY IT GR ES 9

10 Community level TEMPORARY EMIGRATION TO ITALY IS SPECIFIC FOR PEOPLE FROM POOR COMMUNITIES Temporary emigration to Italy has predominantly poor localities as origin and better developed localities for emigration to Germany, Austria, France and the United States. Higher emigration of Roma is specific for the streams toward Spain, France and Germany. Temporary emigration toward Austria is positively and significantly associated with higher shares of non-orthodox christian denominations. Further explorations are needed on the topic. Predictors Italy Spane Germany France UK USA Austria urban (1 yes, 0 no) index of urban accessi * ** LHDI ** ** ** *** ** locality population(ln) * * ** ** ** Roma (ln) *** *** * *** Hungarians (ln) ** * ** non-orthodox relig(ln) * constante * *** ** ** *** * R Data source: NIS, 2011 census. Shares of temporary emigrants to specific country destinations. Each column represent a regression model with share of temporary emigrants towards the specified country. Commune and cities of origin are units of analysis. Significance levels for regression coefficients:* 0.05, ** 0.01, *** LHDI local human development index for the year For details on the index see annex 9 in Ionescu-Heroiu, M., Burduja, S., Sandu, 10 D. et.al. (2014). Competitive cities. Reshaping economic geography of Romania.

11 Community level COMMUNITY MIGRATION FIELDS BY MAIN DESTINATIONS OF THEIR TEMPORARY EMIGRATION The largest community migration fields from Romania are oriented toward Italy first + Spain secondly, and Italy as a single destination. The third stream as weight in the total temporary emigration is from communities oriented mainly to Spain and secondly to Italy. Types of origin communities by key Distribution of migrants abroad from origin communities origin communities destinations Italy oriented Spain Italy-Spain Spain-Italy Germany-Austria France Hungary Multiple destinations Total % N Example:26.1% out of the total temporary emigrants from Romania come from Italy oriented communities. The share of the Italian oriented cities and communes for the 26.1% emigrants is of 19.9 out of the total cities and communes of Romania. Data source: NIS, census The typology of localities by key destinations is generated by a k means cluster analysis of 3181 localities, each of them being defined by the share of temporary emigrants to eight destination countries (Italy, Spain, Germany+Austria, France, UK+Ireland, USA+Canada+Switherland, Hungary other). The cluster centres are predetermined by expectations of having eight clusters with shares of emigrants that are equal to the sheres of the existing diaspora in the reference country. 11

12 Community level THE ITALIAN FIELD OF MIGRATION IS DIVIDED INTO THREE SUBFIELDS FUNCTION OF ORIGIN COMMUNITY TYPE The lowest degree of urbanization is for the streams toward Spain and Italy and the highest ones for the streams that are directed to Germany+Austria and to multiple destinations. Religious minorities (non-christian orthodox) have a higher concentration in the streams toward Hungary, Germany and France. Socio-demographic profile of origin communities Type of origin community by key destination of migrants Italy+ Spain Spain+ Italy Germany + Austria France Hungary Multiple destinations Italy Spain Total degree of urbanization of 47 migrants (%) LHDI LHDI % Hungarians % Roma % Catholics % Adventists % Penticostals % Non-Christian Orthodox Share of migrants

13 Community level TEMPORARY MIGRANTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY AND THE PROFILE OF ORIGIN COMMUNITIES Destination country Types of origin communities for temporary migrants abroad Total Example:44% out of the total temporary emigrants from Romania to Italian Italian- Spanish- Spanish German French Hung Spanish Italian and arian Multiple destinati ons Austrian Italy Greece UK Cyprus Denmark Norway Netherlands Portugal Belgium France Spain Ireland USA Canada Sweden Switherland Germany Austria Hungary other Total Italy as recorded at 2011 census (NIS) have the origin in local communities in Romania that are sending migrants mainly to Italy and 34% out of them originated in communities sending migrants to Italy, primarily and to Spain, secondarily. Figures that are marked by shadow indicate significant associations between destination field and the type of origin community, according to results of an analysis by adjusted standardised residuals that is not showen here. Italian-Spanish communities function as a kind of communities of practice* for learning the opportunities for migration to other countries like Greece, Portugal, UK, Cyprus etc. The road toward Scandinavian countries is learnt, mainly, into the local communities that are specialised in sending migrants to Germany&Austria and Spain- Italy. *Wenger, E. (1999). Communities of practice: Learning, meaning, and identity: Cambridge University Press. 13

14 Individual level RECENT TEMPORARY EMIGRATION OF WORKING AGE POPULATION FROM ROMANIA BY DESTINATION EMPLOYMENT CATEGORY (ISCO88.COM), 2011 (%) Italy is mainly attracting medium skilled construction workers and low skilled domestic workers. Higher skilled migrants are going more to the North countries. Migration to Hungary has a structure that is quite close to thee structure of emigration toward Scandinavian countries. None of the destinations here have identical occupational profiles that are significant. The fact is significant for the high specificity of labour demands at different destinations. Destination High skilled Medium skilled Low skilled agricultu construc re tions domestic agricultu work re construc tions countries/regions services other other Italy France, Belgium, Portugal Spain, Greece, Cyprus Germany, Austria Hungary UK IE USA CA SE, DK N, NL, CH Other Total Total Data source: NIS, 2011 census data, own computations (DS) 14

15 Individual level INTRAEUROPEAN FILEDS OF SOCIAL ATTACHMENT % attached to a specific other country Slovakia Denmark SWEDEN (attraction country indicated by head of the arrow) second country of attraction 5%-10% Poland Estonia Finland highest level of attraction 5%-10% Latvia 11%-20% 21%-40% Czech Rep. Hungary Slovenia Lithuania Ireland Greece GERMANY AUSTRIA USA UK Cyprus Bulgaria Luxembourg Netherlands FRANCE Portugal Sandu, D. (2014). Romanian migration as multiregional building of transnational fields. In Croitoru, A., Sandu, D., & Tudor, E. (Eds). The Europeanisation of Everyday Life: Cross-Border Practices and Transnational Identifications Among EU and Third-Country Citizens. EUCROSS. See Data source: Eurobarometer 73.3, 2010 Malta Belgium Romania ITALY SPAIN 15

16 Consequences of migration experiences at community level Predictors THE VOTES FOR KLAUS JOHANNIS AT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2014 IN ROMANIA WERE INFLUENCED BY THE MAIN MIGRATION DESTINATION AT THE LOCAL COMMUNITY LEVEL IN ROMANIA y- % vots pro- Johannis, second y- % vots pro- Johannis, second round (ln), model 1 round (ln), model 2 B Beta p B Beta p migrants to Spain* migrants to Germany* migrants to Austria* migrants to USA* migrants to France* migrants to Ireland* migrants to Italy* migrants to UK* education stock in locality, average age in localiy* %ethnic Hungarians in locality* total fertility rate* locality in the region of Oltenia( 1 yes, 0 no) %vots for V.Ponta, first tour* Constante R N 3,057 3,057 Communities of high number of emigrants in Italy did not vote significantly for Klaus Johannis in the second round of 2014 elections (Model 2). The vote in Italy oriented communities changed from left options in the first round to nondifferentiated options in the second round. Communities of high migration experience in Spain, Germany and Austria voted significantly in favour of Johanning in both rounds in Data source: voting results from 2014 at locality level and NIS data from 2011 census. 16

17 Consequences of migration experiences at community level DOES MIGRATION EXPERIENCE BRINGS HOUSING MODERNITY AT COMMUNITY LEVEL? Coef. P>t Urban index of international migration experience educatio stock urban connectivity Local human dev. Index Yes, localities of higher migration experience tend to having a more modern housing stock. Localities having more migrants to Germany, USA, Belgium, Denmark and Cyprus have more modern housing stocks, irrespective of their migration experience. Higher remittances from these countries could be one of the explanatory factors. Coef. P>t Cyprus Belgium USA Germany Greece Danmark Portugal Netherlands France Italy UK Ireland Sweden Austria Spain _cons R N 2872 Primary data source: NIS, 2011 census aggregated at commune or city level. Linear regression model with robust standard errors controlling by cluster comand for the county (STATA analysis). 17

18 Consequences of migration experiences at community level DID MIGRATION ABROAD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING OR DECREASING THE LOCAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (LHDI)? Yes, for sure. Localities that had an increase in LHDI in the period had a higher education stock, are located closer to large cities and a higher stock of migration experience. Destination country for temporary emigration from locality also counted in an independent way: higher emigration toward Germany, UK, France and USA brought a positive dynamics of LHDI in origin localities. Having higher rates of emigration toward Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece etc. did not bring a significant increase in LHDI. (The data analysis supporting these findings is based on a multiple regression model that is not presented here.) 18

19 Conclusions CONCLUSIONS ON ANALYSING THE MIGRATION FIELD FROM ROMANIA TO ITALY (1) The field of the temporary migration from Romania to Italy (the Italian field) is regionally concentrated mainly in the historical region of Moldova. A secondary regional location for the same destination is in Oltenia, in Gorj and Dolj counties. The Italian field of migration is more segmented at origin community level (slide 13): 44% out of the total temporary emigrants to Italy left the country from communities that are sending migrants mainly in this country; 34% out of the emigration to Italy comes from communities of Italian-Spanish orientation, 11% from communities of Spanish-Italian profile and 10% originate in communities of other destination profiles. The communities sending migrants to Italy and, secondly to Spain, function as communities of practice to stimulate emigration toward other Southern and Scandinavian countries (slide 13). The communities sending migrants to Italy are among the poorest ones in Romania (slide 9). The fact is in sharp contrast with communities sending migrants mainly to Germany, Austria, France and UK that are rather rich. The communities that are specialised in sending migrants only or to a very large degree in Italy are poorer than the communities of mixed destination toward Italy-Spain or Spain-Italy (slide 11). 19

20 Conclusions CONCLUSIONS ON ANALYSING THE MIGRATION FIELD FROM ROMANIA TO ITALY (2) The Romanians going to Italy are working there mainly in construction as medium skilled workers and in the domestic sector as low skilled workers (slide 13). Generally, each destination country selects different combinations of occupations. Higher skilled occupations are more frequent for emigration toward Nordic and Anglo-Saxon countries. The consequences of migration are to a significant degree function of the destination country. The fact could be understood if one considers the different compositions of migration streams by education, employment, degree of development in origin communities and, also, by the medium level of remittances that are sent at home. Local communities of higher Italian experience of migration voted initially in the first round of presidential elections predominantly by a left orientation. The same communities did not have a specific vote or left or right orientation for the second round of the same elections. This pattern is in sharp contract with the predominantly right orientation of the vote for local communities having migrants especially in Spain, Germany, Austria, France and USA (slide 16). Modernizing effects of having migration experience abroad at the community level are clearly recorded (slide 17). This effect is higher for the communities having larger number of migrants in Germany, Belgium and USA. As a result of having a large number of migrants in Italy, Romanians consider Italy as the foreign country they are mostly attached to (slide 15). The fact could be explained also by the historical relations between the two countries. Germany is the second preferred country by Romanians according to an Eurobarometer survey. 20

21 Mapping and computations, DSandu ANNEX 1:RECENT MIGRATION FIELDS OF ROMANIA BY ANALYTICAL REGIONS OF EMIGRATION AND MAIN DESTINATION Data source: national Institute of Statistics (NIS) 2011 census data on recent temporary emigration (less than one year) of employed and unemployed migrants. Migration regions are a mix of historical regions, urban regions (map 3) and cultural/ethnic culture areas of the country: Italian from Moldova and Italian from Oltenia overlap on two hystorical regions. Smaller migration regions are very close in configuration to cultural areas (Sandu, 2003) as subdivisions of historical regions. Recent migration regions (referring to emigration of less than one year at census moment in 2011) do not diverge too much from the map of older migration (map 2, referring to emigrants for more than one year at 2011 census) and from the first map of Romanian migration abroad as presented on map 4 in annex. Migration maps and voting behaviour maps of 2014 are also similar, having as a common ground the urban regions structured around cities of 21 more than 200 thou. Inhabitants.

22 ANNEX 2: OLDER MIGRATION FIELDS BY COUNTY ORIGINS AND COUNTRY DESTINATIONS Data source: national Institute of Statistics (NIS) 2011 census data on older temporary emigration (more than one year at census moment). Mapping and computations, DSandu 22