DEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities

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1 DEMIFER: Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities Phil Rees, Geography, University of Leeds on behalf of the DEMIFER team ESPON Seminar: The ESPON UK Knowledge Base as Potential ESPON Seminar: The ESPON UK Knowledge Base as Potential for Territorial Analysis and Policy Analysis at Regional Level, 1-3 December 2009 St Gertrud Konferens, Östergatan 7b, Malmö, Sweden

2 The DEMIFER project team NIDI (co-ordinator) (The Hague, Netherlands) Joop de Beer, Nicole van der Gaag, Rob van der Erf, Peter Ekamper UNVIE (Vienna, Austria) Heinz Fassmann, Ramon Bauer IOM/CEFMR (Warsaw, Poland) Marek Kupiszewski, Dorota Kupiszewska Nordregio (Stockholm, Sweden) Daniel Rauhut, Joanna Roto, Susan Brocket, Jonathan Metzger, Lisa van Well University of Leeds (Leeds, United Kingdom) Phil Rees, Peter Boden, Adam Dennett, John Stillwell NEAA (The Hague, Netherlands) Andries de Jong, Mark ter Veer CNR (Rome, Italy) Frank Heins, Corrado Bonafazi, Giuseppe Gesano

3 Aims of the project (1) 1 to determine how distinctive are current trends in migration, fertility, and mortality and how they affect differences across regions in population growth, the size of the working age population and the ageing of the population. 2 to forecast how future developments in migration, fertility and mortality will affect population growth and changes in the age structure in different types of regions. 3 to analyse the extent to which the labour force in different types of regions will change due to increases in natural growth, internal migration, international migration and participation rates.

4 Aims of the project (2) 4 to evaluate which policy options could achieve increases in natural growth, migration and labour force participation. 5 to review the extent to which the effects of internal migration, migration between European countries and migration to Europe compensate or reinforce each other. 6 to assess the future effects of climate change on migration flows within, between and into countries and regions.

5 Tasks Assembly of a Projection of database populations using a Analysis of multiregional demographic regimes projection model A summary typology Reference scenarios Three migration Policy scenarios streams (internal, Assessment of impact inter-state, extra- of policy scenarios on Europe) regional Analysis of labour competitiveness and force participation regional cohesion rates Case studies of Analysis of the older processes in selected population regions

6 Demographic and migration data availability, NUTS2 level Population Inter regional Migration Inter country Migration Extra Europe Migration Vital Statistics #Country Code NUTS2 regions PAS MIROD MIROAS MIRDAS MICOD MICOAS MICDAS MEEOAS MEEIDAS DAS BAS 1 Austria AT 9 2Belgium BE 11 3Bulgaria BG 6 4Switzerland CH 6 5Cyprus CY 1 6Czech Republic CY 8 7Germany DE 39 8Denmark DK 5 9Estonia EE 1 10 Spain ES Finland FI 5 12 France FR Greece GR Hungary HU 7 15 Ireland IE 2 16 Iceland IS 1 17 Italy IT Liechtenstein LI 1 19 Lithuania LT 1 20 Luxembourg LU 1 21 Latvia LV 1 22 Malta MT 1 23 Netherlands NL Norway NO 7 25 Poland PL Portugal PT 7 27 Romania RO 8 28 Sweden SE 8 29 Slovenia SI 2 30 Slovakia SK 4 31 United Kingdom UK 37 ESPON 293 PAS Population by Age, Sex MICDAS Migration, Inter Country, Destination inflows by Age, Sex MIROD Migration, Inter Region, Origin to Destination flows MEEOAS Migration, Extra Europe, Origin outflows by Age, Sex MIROAS Migration, Inter Region, Origin outflows by Age, Sex MEEIDAS Migration, Extra Europe, Destination inflows by Age, Sex MIRDAS Migration, Inter Region, Destination inflows by Age, Sex DAS Deaths by Age, Sex MICOD Migration, Inter Country, Origin to Destination flows BAS Births by Age, Sex MICOAS Migration, Inter Country, Origin outflows by Age, Sex Good age sex detail available for for most countries Good data for NUTS0, Total deaths for NUTS2 EU Inter regional Migration data available for some years from 2000 Good age sex fertility data for NUTS2 EEA Inter regional Migration data not applicable Data currently being sought Switzerland Data supplied by MIMOSA project Data currently being modelled

7 Estimated migration flows for selected EU countries, 2006 (1,000s)

8 Total Fertility Rate, 2005 NUTS2 Regions

9 Life expectancy Life expectancy for NUTS2 regions, 2004

10 Annual net migration rate, NUTS2 regions,

11 Share of the population that is aged d65 or over

12 Annual growth rate for people aged 75+, NUTS2 regions,

13 Demographic typology Type Name Regions Demographic profile 1 Euro Standard 79 Slightly older than average age structure, small natural decrease, positive net migration 2 Challenge of 61 Varied components, slight population Transition decline 3 Family Potentials 55 Slightly younger than average age structure, high h natural increase & growth 4 Challenge of ageing 33 Older populations, natural decrease but with greater net migration 5 Challenge of Decline 38 Negative natural increase and net migration, depopulation, ageing 6 Young Potentials 15 Young age structure, positive natural increase, positive net migration 7 Overseas 5 High share in young working ages; low share in 65+

14 Demographic Typology of NUTS2 Regions Type Name 1 Euro Standard 2 Challenge of Transition 3 Family Potentials 4 Challenge of ageing 5 Challenge of Decline 6 Young Potentials 7 Overseas

15 Projection model: migration structures Migration structure incorporated into the MULTIPOLES population projection model Destinations EU EEA ROW Origins Austria Belgium Sweden UK Iceland Switzerland Extra Europe EU Austria Belgium Sweden UK EEA Iceland Switzerland ROW Extra Europe Types of migration flow Inter regional migration within country EU 27 countries Inter country migration within Europe EEA 4 countries Countries with no NUTS 2 regions ROW ~200 countries Immigration from Rest of the World Emigration to the Rest of World

16 MULTIPOLES projection model features Scenarios input indicators for fertility, mortality, internal migration, intercountry migration, extra-european immigration, extra-european emigration Population projection engine for 31 countries and ~292 NUTS2 regions Age groups extended d to 100+ Projected population by age and sex multiplied by labour force participation rates

17 Reference scenarios Population base ~ 2005 with demographic rates/flows for period around 2005, e.g Three reference scenarios: 1. Status quo projection 2. No migration projection (natural increase only) 3. Free movement within Europe but no extra-europe migration

18 DEMIFER Policy Scenarios Growth enabled by technical and social innovation Growth limited by environme ntal constraints GROWING SOCIAL EUROPE High Growth/Collectivism ti i GSE LIMITED SOCIAL EUROPE Low Growth/Collectivism LSE Collectivism EXPANDING MARKET EUROPE High Growth/Individualism id EME CHALLENGED MARKET EUROPE Low Growth/Individualism CME Individualism DISTRIBUTION-FAIRNESS

19 Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies Policy scenarios linked to component trends and policies Linkage of scenarios to demographic components via trends and policies

20 Methods for scenarios: mortality Growing Social Europe Expanding Market Europe Standardized Mortality Ratio Life expectancy Limited Social Europe Challenged Market Europe Top Regions Europe Bottom Regions

21 Life expectancy at birth, males, , NUTS2 regions Life Expectancy at Birth, Males NUTS United Kingdom Slovakia Slovenia Sweden Romania Portugal Poland Norway Netherlands Malta Luxembourg Liechtenstein Italy Iceland Ireland Greece France Finland Spain Denmark Germany Czech Republic Cyprus Switzerland Bulgaria Belgium Austria 80 t birth 75 Hungary Life Expectancy at Lithuania 70 Latvia Estonia 65 60

22 Standardised Mortality Ratios, NUTS2 regions with a Europe standard SMR Range 2004 NUTS2 Romania 170 Hungary 160 Latvia Czech Republic Bulgaria United Kingdom Slovakia Portugal Poland Lithuania Estonia France Denmark 130 Slovenia Sweden Norway Netherlands Ireland Finland Spain Germany Greece Belgium Austria Malta Luxembourg Liechtenstein Italy Iceland Cyprus Switzerland

23 Plans Details of the topics covered in this presentation and future plans are given in the DEMIFER Interim Report, and in Deliverables 1, 2 and 3 Work is proceeding on the following deliverables (technical reports) The Policy Scenarios including a Climate Change scenario They will be fed into the MULTIPOLES projection program Reference scenarios will be produced Labour force participation assumptions will be added Results will be analysed to answer the research questions posed at the beginning of the presentation A set of case studies, looking at selected NUTS2 regions for each of the demographic types and probing deeper spatially to NUTS3 and LAU1 levels will be carried out The Executive Summary will summarise our findings in an easy to read report

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