Using the World Values Survey To Analyze Social Change: Can the Russian People find Happiness? Ronald Inglehart

Transcription

1 Using the World Values Survey To Analyze Social Change: Can the Russian People find Happiness? Ronald Inglehart St. Petersburg, HSE December 16, 2010

2 economic development is bringing systematic value changes These motivational changes have important implications Around the world, we observe pervasive trends toward: gender equality greater tolerance of gays, foreigners, outgroups diminishing xenophobia democracy

3 These findings are based on empirical evidence from the first global survey of mass values and worldviews the World Values Survey

4 Countries surveyed at least once in the World Values Surveys 99 countries, containing almost 90 % of the world s population (2007)

5 Development and cultural change move in two major phases Industrialization brings a shift from Traditional values to Secular-rational values. Postindustrial society brings a shift from Survival values to Self-expression values

6 Human values turn out to be surprisingly coherent. Scores of important values are tapped by just two key underlying dimensions of cross-cultural variation. Consequently, the world s societies can be plotted on a two-dimensional cross-cultural map. These two dimensions reflect the fact that economic development and cultural values are intimately linked

7 TRADITIONAL vs. SECULAR-RATIONAL AUTHORITY $2,000 to $5,000 GNP/capita Under $2,000 GNP/capita India Bangladesh Pakistan Nigeria $5,000 to $15,000 GNP/capita Ghana Japan Over Netherlands $15,000 GNP/capita France Spain West Sweden Germany Britain U.S.A SURVIVAL / SELF-EXPRESSION

8 Despite these changes, a society s cultural heritage continues to shape its value system Cultural change is path-dependent

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10 These two dimensions of crosscultural variation are very robust They emerge when measured in many different ways, using different indicators, different sets of countries and they emerge in the 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2006 waves of the World Values Survey

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12 Cultural change From 1981 to 2007, all high-income societies moved (in varying degrees) from the lower-left toward the upper-right on the cross-cultural map placing increasing emphasis on Secularrational values and Self-expression values In much of the former Soviet Union, the economic, political and ideological implosion that followed the collapse of communism, led to a resurgence of traditional values and survival values.

13 Changes over time, Japan Traditional vs. Secular-Rational Values Russia China Ex-communist Europe India Catholic Europe Latin America Protestant Europe English-speaking countries -1.3 Africa Survival vs. Self Expression Values

14 These individual-level value changes have major societal-level consequences The linkages between individual-level values and societal-level phenomenon such as gender equality in economic and political life are remarkably strong

15 Tolerance of foreigners is strongly related to a society s level of existential security The rise of the knowledge society brings rising tolerance of diversity conversely, xenophobia has become increasingly widespread in insecure societies such as the former USSR and Iraq

16 Conversely, high levels of existential security lead to Rising support for gender equality Increasing tolerance of gays and lesbians

17 Percentage saying Homosexuality is NEVER acceptable W.Grmany France U.S. Japan Source: World Values Survey

18 % saying When jobs are scarce, men have more right to a job than women W.Europe (Britain, France, W.Germany, Italy) U.S.

19 rising mass emphasis on Selfexpression values is strongly linked with societal-level gender equality (as indicated by the UN Gender Empowerment Measure)

20 Self-expression values and gender equality.85 + Gender Empowerment 1997 _.80 Sw eden Norw ay New Zealand.75 Denmark Canada Finland Iceland.70 Holland Germany (W.) Australia Austria.65 U.S.A. Sw itzerld..60 Spain Belgium G.B..55 Portugal Ireland S.-Africa Slovakia Czech R..50 Poland Italy China France Japan Hungary Bulgaria Mexico Slovenia.45 Philippines Estonia Latvia Uruguay Romania Peru Dominican R..40 Venezuela Chile.35 Georgia Brazil Bangladesh S.-Korea Turkey Iran Ghana India.20 Nigeria R = Pakistan Survival Mass Values (early-mid 1990s) Self-expression

21 Cultural change good governance Rising emphasis on self-expression values leads to publics to exert growing pressure on elites to govern more responsively, more effectively and with less corruption

22 a society s relative emphasis on survival or self-expression values is strongly linked with good governance, as measured by the World Bank s overall Good Governance index (see Kaufman, Kraay and Mastruzzi).

23 1.05 Switzerld Finland Netherld. Iceland + Denmark Sweden.95 Luxemb. Norway Canada Austria Germany New Zeald..90 G.B. Ireland Australia.85 Spain U.S.A. France.80 Portugal Chile Belgium.75 Japan Taiwan Malta Italy.70 Estonia Slovenia Hungary Uruguay Greece.65 Poland Czech R..60 Lithuania Slovakia South Korea.55 Jordan South Africa Latvia Croatia China Brazil.50 Egypt El Salvad. Bulgaria Mexico Philippines.45 Ghana Romania Argentina Peru.40 Iran India Dominican R. Turkey Moldova Belarus Bangladesh Macedonia.35 Armenia Bosnia Ukraine Pakistan Russia.30 Albania Azerbaij. Uganda Georgia Yugoslavia Venezuela.25 Zimbabwe.20 Nigeria Good Governance _.15 r = Survival Mass Values Self-expression

24 Economic development tends to bring higher levels of happiness and life satisfaction But belief systems matter: All Latin American societies are overachievers, showing higher levels of subjective well-being than their economic level would predict

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26 And virtually all of the ex-communist countries are under-achievers, showing lower levels of subjective well-being than their economic level would predict. (the Asian communist countries still officially communist and thriving economically have happiness levels that are slightly above the regression line.

27 Economic factors are not the sole determinant of SWB. Belief systems also matter. Latin American societies are characterized by a strong religious beliefs and relatively strong feelings that one is in control of one s life -- this helps explain their higher than predicted levels of SWB

28 The collapse of communism in the USSR was followed by a sharp decline in subjective well-being

29 8.5 Colombia Mexico Iceland Denmark Switzerland New Zealand Sweden U.S.A. Life Satisfaction level Vietnam China Russia 2006 Russia 1982 Hungary 1981 Hungary 1990 Hungary 1999 Spain East Germany West Germany Japan 5.5 Russia Russia 1999 Russia 1995 Tambov GDP per capita in thousands purchasing power parity estimates except for Russia and Hungary, life satisfaction reflects levels in the 2000 surveys

30 a paradox Within most countries, lower income groups are more religious than higher income groups Religion is stronger in low-income countries than in high-income countries ( r = -.45); and Happiness has a strong correlation with GNP/capita (r =.6 to.7) NEVERTHELESS: within most countries, people with strong religious beliefs are happier than those who place little or no importance on religion

31 Why would religion happiness? 1. Religion dampens aspirations. 2. Religion provides a sense of solidarity 3. Religion provides a sense of certainty in an unpredictable and dangerous world. 4. Religion provides a sense of meaning and purpose in life.

32 30 Luxemburg United States Singapore Switzerland GNP / capita 1995 (PPP) RELIGIOUS PEOPLE ARE LESS HAPPY Portugal Norway Germany Denmark Austria France Canada Japan Belgium Iceland 20 Netherlands Italy Great Sweden Australia Britain Finland New Zealand Israel 10 Spain Czech Greece Puerto Rico Taiwan N. Ireland RELIGIOUS PEOPLE ARE HAPPIER Chile Ireland S. Korea Malaysia Slovenia Argentina Venezuela Hungary Uruguay Mexico Colombia EstoniaRomania Poland Croatia Brazil Thailand Bulgaria Russia Belarus S.Africa Turkey Lith. Slovakia Domin.Rep. Iran MacedoniaEgyptVietnam Morocco Indonesia Montenegro Moldova China Ukraine Armenia Georgia Jordan NigeriaPeru El Salvador Iraq Albania Pakistan Zimbawe India Uganda Rwanda BangladeshTanzania Correlation between religiosity and SWB Index

33 A few countries show negative correlations between religiosity and happiness Most of them are ex-communist countries. The negative correlation seems to reflect a recent influx of unhappy people who have been turning to religion to fill the ideological void left by the collapse of communism

34 The importance of God in people s lives, rose in ex-communist societies and developing countries, but decreased in most rich democracies. The largest increases were in Bulgaria, Russia, China, Belarus, Serbia and Moldova. This is consistent with the interpretation that the collapse of communism produced an influx of unhappy new adherents a negative correlation between religiosity and happiness

35 Bu lga ria R uss ia C hin a Be laru s S erb ia R om an ia A rge ntin a U k rain e M oldov a It aly P ortug al S loven ia U rugu ay S lov ak ia Ta iwa n S. Afric a Tu rk ey M exic o Finla n d H u ngary J ap a n C ze ch R. L ith uan ia B razil A us tria S.K ore a Franc e B rita in C a na d a C olo m b ia U.S.A. W.Ge rm a n Ch ile I cela n d Ind ia P ola n d Au stra lia N ige ria D e nm a rk S w ed e n Irelan d N. Ze ala n d E. G erm a ny S w itze rlan d Be lgiu m Ne th e rla n d N. Irela n d Spa in N o rway Change in me an score on Im porta nce of God sc ale, earliest to latest su rvey

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