Rethinking the Future Nature of Competitions and Conflict Seminar Series 22 June 2006 Professor Haim Harari

Transcription

1 Rethinking the Future Nature of Competitions and Conflict Seminar Series 22 June 2006 Professor Haim Harari Professor Harari began his talk by describing himself, his experiences, and his family background. His profession: physicist His occupation: physics management and science policy His passion: education He noted that his talk would strongly emphasize education. The sequence of events that brought him to this talk tonight He is a member of the board of a major international corporation Usually asked to talk about science On one occasion, as the only Israeli/Middle Eastern member, he was asked to discuss the on-going problems in the Middle East Chose not to speak about Israel but the broader Middle East problems His talk to 30 people was soon published on the web and was rapidly and dramatically redistributed He wrote a book that expanded on the concepts in the talk Viewpoint origins Family background: fifth-generation in what is now Israel Ancestors arrived during what was the Ottoman Empire from the 1820s Traveled extensively as a physicist Tonight s observations A view of the world in the age of science and technology (S&T) Conflicts in the greater Middle East region Today we live in the age of science, knowledge, information It is not obvious why S&T now dominate our lives Concerns about energy, the internet, the rising power of China are also important Of special interest is the relatively new coming together of the computer mouse and the biomedical mouse These two mouse types are dominating S&T development The interface of physics and life sciences is becoming especially interesting and important 1

2 Look at 1973 as an example of the way many different areas come together to form the world we live in today First use of the oil weapon by the Saudis The Arab-Israeli War Also 2 babies were born one in Detroit and one in the Soviet Union More recently they jointly developed Google using math and the internet Some facts Iran and Germany have about the same number of people but What Iran produces in one year, Germany did in 2.5 weeks Now with increased fuel prices it might be as much as 3.5 weeks Raw materials becoming more expensive relates in some ways to the fact that the Middle East, China and India are waking up Israel s GDP is about twice that of Saudi Arabia One has oil and one had lots of intellectual property No one likes the rise in the price of oil but perhaps we should be thankful Will force us to do something about the problems So the oil weapon is only a paper tiger The value of oil is less than that of intellectual property Old Israeli joke: Moses wondered for years all over the Middle East until he found the one area that did not have oil However, Moses did get the 10 Commandments even more valuable intellectual property Became the basis of the western economic system but took millennia to develop It is a benefit to the West that the cost of oil is rising because our use of oil has been destroying the planet So we should thank the Saudis Now we have to do something about it Iran is not very technologically advanced, but the world is worried about their potential nuclear weapons We would not worry if it were any other field in whic a country was trying to do what was originally done by others in 1948 You wouldn t buy a car from such an enterprise What Iran wants to do could be done probably by 100 countries Today s S&T World Six billion people in the world but in different levels of participation Only 1 billion are active participants in the world that uses S&T Primarily North America, most of Europe, and bits and pieces elsewhere Another 1 billion live in areas moving forward toward participation in S&T Mostly Eastern Europe, Korea, Chinese cities, a few other small bits 2

3 Other 4 billion do not know anything about participation in the S&T world Many other issues are also bad for them: water / health / democracy Most live in countries that are to some degree dysfunctional Example: the Arab League contains 22 members 300 million people in about 5 million square miles Produce less science than little Israel Produce fewer books than little Greece The big issue: over 50% of the women are illiterate All other issues start with education Education starts at age zero with the mother Where the world is going Those 4 billion people have no real education Includes all of Africa and the Muslim World Also includes 1 billion of the 1.25 billion Chinese (mostly rural people) Includes most of India and South America with a few islands of better educated people The average investment in education in the S&T world is about $20/child/day And most people here and in Israel complain about it In the world of the 4 billion it is about 50 cents/child/day (about 40 times less) No surprise: all these countries are either ruled by ruthless dictators or have collapsed governments Poverty is so great that no one can complain and there is no one to complain to in these countries Total amount of spending by the countries of the 4 billion on education is less than the yearly sales by GM and Toyota UN s Human Development Index Based on GDP, life expectancy, education, other issues No countries in Eastern Europe, Middle East or Latin America are in the top 25 countries Shows the immediate connection between economics and education Intellectual property is an important but difficult to explain concept It can be misused or stolen Many countries have a good deal of property but only a few have large amounts of intellectual property Immigrants who bring with them insight and leadership are more important than those who bring in material resources About democracy President Bush talks about the need to expand democracy everywhere But what is the definition of democracy? 3

4 Really involves free speech / free press / a fair judiciary / women s rights / / accepted set of laws / moral laws / no exploitation of children / and more Also involves the opportunity for upward mobility and freedom and tolerance of religion Does not mean you have to have an election every 2 or 4 years Most of the 4 billion do not live in any form of democracy Not even in India the world s largest democracy Some Indians do have democracy but most do not S&T has led to globalization which is leading to a loss of borders Look at what is happening in the EU, much like in the U.S. There are many globalized companies Of the 50 richest entities, 25 are countries and 25 are companies International commerce and trade agreements are important It is possible to extrapolate into a future with a single world political entity Could be called Globanaia Most people will still not know about S&T/education/democracy However, in elections they will be voting and will win because they will be the majority Each time the majority will get bigger with the educated minority losing more and more This will be the rise of an anti-democratic majority The problem can only be solved 2 ways: 1. Build walls like those in Israel or along the U.S.-Mexico border Can also be a wall of visas which already exists for most people trying to visit the U.S. It is very difficult to visit now 2. Education but that takes decades Does not have to reach the level that the top 1 billion enjoy today Acceptable would be only as good as we had it in the 1910s or 1920s Most of the Muslim world is in the mid-19 th Century Example: 150 million Pakistanis produce 66% of what 4 million people in Singapore do So not surprising that the U.S. can t find bin Laden in such a place Problem: The strong get stronger and fewer but the weak become weaker and more numerous. Democracy and peace can t survive in such a situation Democracy can t survive without changes Professor Harari claimed to be an eternal optimist and that he must be to live where he does Suggests looking back at the 19 th Century for examples of big changes 4

5 No one then could have believed the changes that have occurred: In women s rights Democracy in as many countries as have achieved it That France and Germany could be friends No one could have predicted that a baby born in the USSR in 1973 would become a billionaire in the U.S. involving computers that were used in homes The Background of World War III WWIII is going on everywhere now There is no doubt who will win eventually The forces are so unequal Terrorists cannot win but they can prolong the war and suffering The enemy does not have a name or address but they do have sponsors Sponsors do not admit it not like in old wars when enemies declared themselves This is where international law fails It is hard to declare war if the other side does not admit to attacking When you catch combatants they become soldiers so that the Geneva Convention applies Before you catch them they don t follow any rules so carry out beheadings and other atrocities There can be enemy cells everywhere when the sides are not clear Time-shifts add to the confusion In World War I and World War II the sides lived in the same time period but in different places World War III the sides live in different time periods but are everywhere 19 th Century wars permitted all kinds of horrors as acts of war At that time it also was normal for people to be illiterate We can only win by bringing the other side over to our way of thinking This will not include the active terrorists It will be those who support them All the rules of the game are broken It is terrible to say but even the Nazis honored certain rules of war The enemy now does not honor any rule and does so in the name of God We need to change international conventions and laws about justice We need to do everything to get at the enemy, but we cannot sacrifice our principles of law to overcome the other side We can t preserve all of our rules all the time either We are getting to a point where we are tying our hands to avoid collateral damage S&T can t make it perfect Now it s a political debate Every previous war caused changes in the war rules In WWI the use of chemical weapons was normal 5

6 Follow the money The U.S. administration understands the need to follow the money Some terrorists have an MTA: Masters of Terror Administration The Saudis aren t necessarily funding terrorist directly More like providing the fertilizer to develop incitement There are three concentric circles of terrorist activity First circle: are the preachers and those on satellite TV who are continually inciting hatred toward the U.S. and Israel They harangue against everybody and everything except their own corrupt regimes Second circle: the leadership of the terror groups Third circle: the individual terrorists who are considered so cheap that they can be used in suicide attacks Question: Who paid for the huge poster campaign that was going on in Vienna before President Bush arrived at a recent summit there? All of the subway stops were plastered with posters denouncing Bush Need to find out who paid for them and announce it to the world Not illegal but should be clear who is behind it Only a short list of possible state sponsors Someone was paying for the coordination of all the huge mass rallies in Europe before the Iraq war Called peace rallies but had children dressed as suicide bombers Could call them more legitimately anti-american rallies Question: Why are the Palestinians shooting from Gaza into Israel? Because they are being paid to do so Hezbollah is paying in this instance Iran is paying Hezbollah and Iran are Shiites, too In Iraq they are killing Sunnis Elsewhere they are funding each other About Suicide Bombers and Societies A society that produces such a large numbers of suicide bombers is committing its own suicide In Gaza the Palestinian community is committing national suicide They once had lot of financial support But they did not use that funding to build their community Now there is nothing to eat and no hope The same hopeless situation is developing Iraq where people on the same side are killing each other Why does Iran need to develop missiles that go beyond Israel and could reach Berlin? The real WMD of this war are words and pictures Incitement kills Words and pictures can be digitized sent all the world instantly 6

7 We keep hearing peace activists talking about their support of suicide bombers People hear derogatory, hateful phrases so often that they use the same words automatically The U.S. can market anything to anyone but they are not using that capability to improve their image now. Perhaps we need Yellow Berets to carry out yellow journalism Use investigative journalism/marketing like a weapon Europe is developing a strong anti-americanism because of fears of U.S. imperialistic leanings but these can be swayed Outrageous conspiracy theories are wide spread in all the Muslim countries about such things as who actually carried out the 9/11 attacks Need to fight back with own means to overcome these attitudes The end of the story is not in sight Short term: must go after the terrorists viciously Long-term: must educate that 4 billion people They deserve to live better hurry Professor Harari believes that it will happen but not necessarily in our lifetime Question and Answer Session How do we educate the world and afford to do it? It would not be a problem to afford it, the problem is not affording it Look at all we have spent without getting the job done The problem is how to do it without recreating colonialism Globalization will be a big help The Internet is hard to lock out in Iran Not like stopping the information flow into the old Soviet Union Focus on women and their education first The UN would have to be the lead; the U.S. cannot do it by itself How are China and India making their vast improvements? China is actually a good example of how to educate the world But their advances thus must be taken to the grain of salt We hear about fantastic growth of their GDP (sometimes 8-9% per year) but Increases in GDP could be done by individuals increasing their own productivity by 10% but that really doesn t happen China has one billion peasants who economically contribute zero to the GDP They only feed themselves In the cities China has reached the level of Korea in productivity and education That would mean that only 250 million (of China s 1+ billion) were being as productive as Korea s 50 people That would mean that China equaled five Koreas plus 1 billion peasants 7

8 Every year 25 million of the 1 billion move to the cities and become productive thereby improving the GDP picture By moving to the city they go from living in 1850 to nearly the current day At least in the cities children must finish elementary school You can think of China as an equal to 200 Israels In three years it will be the equivalent of six Koreas and a little more Growth will start slowing down due to pollution and crime levels increases in the cities In the Arab world people are moving to cities also, but There is no push to get education for them Most move into tent cities, get satellite TVs, and listen to preachers inciting them toward hatred In India progress differs from region to region To some extent there are places with growth like China It helps that many Indians can speak English China and Japan have a problem with that Terrorists are not intellectually poor, however they are drawing on an intellectually poor society As the head of a science institute, Harari has learned that he could sell a lot of facts to scientist So you should be able to sell all kinds of concepts to less well educated people Individual suicide bombers can be from all education levels Those studied in Palestine all had some sort of serious social problem Many were disaffected with their community The concept of no war can be lost draws on Israeli experience Can have wars that challenge your existence If it becomes a matter of the nation s existence, there comes a point where you no longer follow the rules We can t now tell how long it will take Can see the U.S. withdrawing from Iraq because the battle there will not threaten the existence of the U.S. If the U.S. leaves Iraq, the situation would be a great opportunity for Iran Iran could easily expand its influence and empire for the entire area Iran would definitely take over Iraq which would have collapsed in chaos since no one else is available to take over Iran would also build missiles that could reach Europe Europe is really worried about its Muslim immigrants There are many who are hardworking people trying to fit in There are others who hard line fanatics intent on taking over Europe They are hard to deal with 8

9 But if the situation reaches a dangerous point where the European way of life is endangered, the stronger society will take more severe action The majority society is the more powerful society but less determined If the situation reaches the danger point, they will become more determined The citizens of the loser country are always the ones who pay the biggest price In a situation where Iran attacks Europe, it will be the Iranian people We need to worry about what kind of democracy we want to support Can t be just about elections on a regular basis It s up to the 1-2 billion people to make the difference Good news: that there are more newly productive people coming from Eastern Europe/China/India/Latin America to help solve the problem The Africans will not be able to solve their problems for themselves Other problems relate to education / health / S&T / increased longevity These problems require thinking and planning on the order of decades However, political leaders can only think about what will be happening before the election No world leader can think far enough ahead to handle such global issues We live longer but we think shorter. Fighting terror must be done even if the education problem did not exist and vice versa Can also think of these problems as short term versus long-term issues Also as tactical versus strategic issues We need to rethink democracy Problem 1: the undereducated majority keeps growing over the better positioned minority Problem 2: only short range thinking going on but the problems require long range solutions Maybe need a new variation of democracy China is probably making better progress than if it had real democracy or a totalitarian state If Iran attacked Israel, what would Israel do? Iran is good at sponsoring terror worldwide and then denying it Iran really wants nuclear weapons for defense They understand that if they ever use them they would be struck back with even more force causing more destruction to their own country It is more important that they make the world think that they have and could use nuclear weapons Harari has some respect for how they are playing the game in Iraq Iran looks down on the Muslim world Believes it was in charge at one time and wants to be again There is a lot of wealth even in poor countries in the region Iran could be in charge again in the region if it did have nuclear weapons 9

10 Keeping Israel in the news is used as a unifying concept for incitement in the region Israel had nothing to do with the Iran/Iraq War or other issues on-going in the region To make progress towards leadership in the Muslim world, one needs only to attack either the Great Satin (the U.S.) or the Little Satin (Israel) Would making changes in economic systems be faster than making changing in education system to improve the world s situation? Look at how the U.S. overcame the Soviet Union using economics The people wanted Levis, not missiles In the old Soviet Union at least the cities of Russia had intellectual property In Israel the old residents look down on the new Russian immigrants for their lack of understanding of an open society The Russian immigrants look down on the Israelis as less culturally developed Economy is like democracy where there needs to be a certain level of background capability before further development can occur When poverty reaches a certain point our system doesn t work You may have the money to create jobs but you can t create them if most of the people cannot read and write Example of the problem: In China 20 million children enter first grade each year The education minister must worry more about getting pencils for each rather than about middle school science education Very basic health education about personal hygiene is also essential In some places it is as simple as teaching people to wash out their ears so that they aren t functionally deaf Iran has had an accumulated a history of sponsored terrorism over the last ten to twenty years Iraq is providing great opportunity to do more If the current situation is a war what is the endstate? Since it is not a well defined war, there is no well-defined end state One criterion would be the elimination of state-sponsorship of terrorism U.S. has been working against Syria to stop this for some time Another criterion would be stopping the funding for terror Who is funding terrorist groups is often not obvious In Iraq the Shiites are funded by Iran but it is unclear who is funding the Sunnis In the Sunni/Shia on-going fighting, it is hard to see who is paying for it If it is being supported by state sponsors, then ending that fighting would be another criterion for a successful endstate A diminishing number of terrorist incidents would also be important 10

11 Could never expect to drop that number to zero There will never be a V-Day where the terrorists assemble and sign a surrender 11