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1 DROUGHT RESPONSE SITUATION REPORT HERAT + BADGHIS 15. FEBRUARY The provision of emergency shelter, non-food items, winterization kits, food and WASH facilities help improve the living conditions of IDP families Shaidayee settlement, Herat IOM 2019 Through Flow Monitoring Points (FMPs) installed on major routes connecting to Herat City, IOM s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) has been monitoring inflows of drought-affected IDPs, since 9 September DTM identifies and registers only newly arriving IDPs, provides IDP Cards to registered families, and shares the information with World Programme and humanitarian partners to facilitate onward registration of newlyarriving IDPs into humanitarian assistance programmes. DTM also tracks the outflow of IDPs from Herat City returning to their places of origin or into secondary displacement. WEEKLY TRENDS Inflows of newly-arrived IDPs peaked at over 1,100 families per week in the week of 28 September and 5 October. There was a sharp, 74% decrease from 5 to 19 October. There was a modest spike of 456 families recorded in the last 5 days of October. Due to funding limitations, DTM discontinued activities from 1 to 15 November, after which inflows remained relatively low at an average 300 families per week. However, after 4 January, inflows have steadily decreased to the present inflow of only 47 newly arrived IDP families in the last week. Families 1,400 1,200 1, /14/ /21/2018 Newly Arrived IDP Families Weekly Trends 1,160 9/28/2018 1,112 10/5/ /12/ /19/ /26/ /31/ /16/ /23/ /30/ /7/2018 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb /14/ /21/ /28/ /4/ /11/ /18/ /25/ /1/ /8/ /15/2019 HIGHLIGHTS HERAT The results presented in this report are cumulative from 9 September 2018, when DTM commenced flow monitoring in Herat. 3 Flow Monitoring Points (FMPs) at Armalek, Rabat Sangi, and Chaharsoy Guzara 264 (47 families) newly-arrived IDPs registered from 9 15 February 36,541 (7,673 families) IDPs registered to date (inflow + outflow) 4.8 average family size 32,356 (6,971 families) arriving IDPs displaced by drought (88.5% of all IDPs) 4,010 (673 families) arriving IDPs displaced by conflict (11.0% of all IDPs) 28,613 (6,299 families) arriving IDPs intended destination is Injil district (78%) 19,668 (4,583 families) arriving IDPs are from Badghis province (54%) 23,666 (5,393 families) arriving IDPs intend to live in tents or in the open air (65%) 47 (7 families) secondarily displaced or returned home (0.13%) Newly Arrived IDP Families Weekly Trends by Province of Origin Herat vs. Badghis Families 1, /14/2018 9/21/2018 9/28/ /5/ /12/ /19/ /26/ /31/ /16/ /23/ /30/ /7/ /14/ /21/ /28/2018 1/4/2019 1/11/2019 1/18/2019 1/25/2019 2/1/2019 2/8/2019 2/15/2019 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Badghis Herat For more information, please contact: DTMAfghanistan@iom.int

2 2 ORIGIN & DESTINATION Newly-Arrived IDPs Province of Origin Badghis Herat Faryab Farah Ghor Daykundi Kandahar Kunduz Nimroz Baghlan Ghazni , ,000 2,000 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 14,349 Kilometers HERAT 19, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Gulran Turkmenistan Kushk Kushk-e-Kohna * currently active FMP; other FMPs were closed due to security concerns Abkamari Muqur Balamurghab Ghormach BADGHIS Qaysar Jawand Pashtunkot Garziwan FARYAB Kohestan Charsadra FMP Location Status &3 Active FMP IDP In-Flow Countries Province District Roads Trunk Primary Secondary District of Destination ,000 1,001-10,000 10,001-28,613 District of Origin ,000 1,001-3,000 3,001-6,935 Kohsan Ghoryan Anardara Rabat Sangi &3 Injil Zindajan Herat &3 Guzara Khak-e-Safed Adraskan Shindand &3 Karukh Chaharsoy Guzara Armalek Pashtunzarghun Qala-e-Naw Obe Farsi Qadis Chaghcharan FARAH Chisht-e-Sharif DoLayna Shahrak Tolak GHOR Saghar Taywarah Purchaman Pasaband Baghran HILMAND Balabuluk Gulestan Districts of Destination in Herat of newly-arrived, drought-affected IDPs Nawzad Kajaki The vast majority of registered IDPs were drought-induced, hailed from Badghis province and were, accordingly, registered at the Armalek FMP. The vast majority of IDPs (74%) had no intention of returning home, preferring a permanent move to greener pastures and putting pressure on receiving districts, particularly Injil district, which is the intended destination for 88% of registered IDPs. Districts of Origin of newly-arrived, drought-affected IDPs in Herat City

3 3 SEX & AGE COMPOSITION Children and adolescents under the age of 18 represent 60% (21,884) of the newly arrived IDPs, among which 7,712 (21%) are under 5 years old. The male to female ratio is close to even, with only 580 (1.6%) more females than males. SPECIFIC NEEDS Shelter continues to be a prevailing need of IDPs upon arrival to IDP settings. An alarming 23,666 IDPs (65%) intend to live in tents or in the open air. Among the newly-arrived IDPs, there were 1,801 (5%) cases with specific needs registered to date. The most numerous cases include 803 chronically ill, 278 pregnant or lactating women, 257 with critical medical conditions, and 196 physically disabled. The vast majority (31,598 or 86%) of registered IDPs claimed to have no official identification documents, such as a tazkira. Only 4,898 (13%) IDPs had a tazkira available at the time of registration with DTM, although many families present tazkiras when they register with WFP s food assistance and SCOPE card. Newly-Arrived IDPs Intended Shelter 32% 41% Newly-Arrived IDPs Age & Sex 4% 1.8% 2% 1.8% 20% 19% Female Male 22% 24% 14% Infant (< 1) Child (1 4) Child (5 9) Adolescent (10 17) Adult (18 59) Elderly (60 +) 15,644 43% 853 2% % 8,022 22% 555 2% 10,490 29% 910 2% Own House Rented House Relative s House Non-Relative s Tent Open Air Don t Know 18% All IDPs (In-Flow + Out-Flow) Specific Needs Age Group Female Male Total % of Total Infant (< 1) % Child (1 4) 3,522 3,540 7,062 19% Child (5 9) 4,039 4,266 8,305 23% Adolescent (10 17) 2,633 3,234 5,867 16% Adult (18 59) 7,560 5,822 13,382 3 Elderly (60 +) ,228 3% Grand Total 18,537 17,957 36,494 Chronically Ill Pregnant Critical Medical Condition Physically Disabled Single Head of Household Mentally Disabled Unacompannied Minors Single Females Deceased 2.20%, %, %, %, %, , %, %, ,000 Exposure to harsh winter weather, poor nutrition and poor, cramped living conditions contribute to increased cases of respiratory infections among IDPs, such as those living in the Kharistan Settlement in Qala-e-Naw, Badghis. IOM 2019

4 4 RETURN INTENTIONS AT TIME OF ARRIVAL IN HERAT Upon arrival in Herat City, overall, 62% (22,421) of newly -arriving IDPs express no intention to return to their places of origin. With the exception of IDPs who arrived in November and December, where 56% indicated they would return to their places of origin, 69% of IDPs who arrived in other months are not likely to return. At the time of arrival, an overwhelming 81% (29,639) of IDPs indicated that they were undecided about when they will return to their places of origin, with 16% (5,756) intending to return within 4 to 6 months. RETURN INTENTIONS Newly-Arrived IDPs Return Intention Yes 13,893 38% No 22,601 62% Newly-Arrived IDPs Return Intention by Month of Registration Newly-Arrived IDPs Intended Length of Stay Month of Registration Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep 432 1,280 1,397 1, ,385 3,793 3,159 2,546 4,450 7,001 7, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Intend to return home Individuals No intention to return < 1 Month 1 3 Months Months 5, Months 1 2 Years > 3 Years , ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Individuals RETURN INTENTION SURVEY PRELIMINARY RESULTS On 10 January 2019, DTM began conducting Return Intention surveys among IDPs living in informal settlements in Herat City and in Qala-e-Naw, Badghis. Developed with inter-cluster and partner inputs, DTM s return intention survey aims to identify the intentions, motivations and needs of IDPs to enable partners to develop assisted voluntary return packages and deliver sustainable solutions. IDPs residing in HERAT Survey Progress Herat (target = 4,400) IDPs residing in BADGHIS Survey Progress Badghis (target = 4,400) 2,419 55% 1,981 45% Surveys Completed Surveys Remaining 2,784 63% 1,616 3 Surveys Completed Surveys Remaining What are the MAIN reasons the first members of your household left your previous location / place of origin? Reasons for Displacement from Place of Origin Herat Reasons for Displacement from Place of Origin Badghis Drought Conflict / insecurity Lack of jobs / economic opportunities Limited or no humanitarian assistance Lack of basic services Loss or lack of shelter, property or assets Limited or no access to land Illegal taxation / extortion Join family members Other natural disaster Escaping Debts Significance (average, n=1981): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Drought Conflict / insecurity Lack of jobs / economic opportunities Limited or no humanitarian assistance Lack of basic services Loss or lack of shelter, property or assets Other natural disaster Limited or no access to land Illegal taxation / extortion Join family members Escaping Debts Significance (average, n=1616): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2=

5 5 What were your family s main sources of income at your place of origin? Main Sources of Income at Place of Origin Herat Main Sources of Income at Place of Origin Badghis Agriculture Livestock Unskilled casual/wage labor Skilled casual/wage labor Small business / trade Borrowing / loans Charity / begging Remittances Salaried work Savings Government benefits Humanitarian assistance % of family income (average) Agriculture Livestock Unskilled casual/wage labor Skilled casual/wage labor Salaried work Borrowing / loans Small business / trade Charity / begging Remittances Humanitarian assistance Government benefits Savings % of family income (average) What are your current needs? Current Needs Herat Current Needs Badghis Significance (average, n=1671): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Significance (average, n=1492): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Would you be willing to temporarily relocate to a designated IDP site, when available? Willingness to relocate to IDP site Herat Willingness to relocate to IDP site Badghis 14 1% 13 1% % % 1,176 59% 1,012 63% Yes No Yes No Would you consider renting an apartment or rooms (in your current location of displacement)? Willingness to rent an apartment or rooms Herat Willingness to rent an apartment or rooms Badghis % 6% % % 62 4% 6 0% 1,461 74% 1,003 62% Yes Yes, if assisted No Yes Yes, if assisted No

6 6 How does your household obtain information about your place of origin or place of resettlement? Information Sources on Place of Origin Herat Information Sources on Place of Origin Badghis Significance (average, n=1623): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Significance (average, n=1501): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Mobile Family & Friends Newly Arrived IDPs Community Leaders Religious Leaders Radio UN, NGOs & Charities TV Printed Materials Internet Authorities Mobile Family & Friends Newly Arrived IDPs Community Leaders UN, NGOs & Charities Religious Leaders Radio Internet Printed Materials TV Authorities Would you consider an assisted voluntary return to your place of origin? Assisted Voluntary Return Willingness Herat Assisted Voluntary Return Willingness Badghis % 1% % % % 1,294 65% % Yes Depends on assistance offered No Yes Depends on assistance offered No What is your household thinking about return, resettlement, or remaining at your current location? Return Intention Herat Return Intention Badghis Families (n=1981) Families (n=1616) Return to place of origin 1%, 16 Return to place of origin 12%, 188 Remain in current location 1%, 28 Resettle elsewhere in Afghanistan 2%, 39 Resettle elsewhere in Afghanistan Remain in current location 1, 276 Move to another country 0.1%, 2 Move to another country 1%, 16 98%, 1,935 68%, 1,097 When do you think you will return to your place of origin, resettle to another location, or move to another country? Return/Resettle/Remain Length of stay in current location Herat Return/Resettle/Remain Length of stay in current location Badghis Families (n=46) Families (n=519) Less than 1 month Less than 1 month 0%, 1 1 to 3 months 1 to 3 months 3%, 15 4 to 6 months 4 to 6 months 3%, 18 7 to 12 months 7 to 12 months 3%, 13 More than 12 months 11%, 5 More than 12 months 20%, %, 41 71%, 366

7 7 What are your household s MAIN reasons for deciding to return? Main reasons to RETURN to place of origin Herat Main reasons to RETURN to place of origin Badghis Significance (average, n=16): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Significance (average, n=188): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Better security Better environmental conditions Better availability of livelihoods Better availability of safe drinking water Facilitated return assistance Availability of humanitarian assistance Family reunification Planting season Better access to health services Agricultural inputs availability or support Better access to land & property Better shelter Forced eviction Better availability of pastures Better access to education Better access to markets Illegal taxation/extortion stopped Better social network Convinced by elders, family or friends Better security Better environmental conditions Better availability of livelihoods Planting season Better shelter Better access to health services Availability of humanitarian assistance Better availability of safe drinking water Better access to markets Better access to education Better availability of pastures Agricultural inputs availability or support Facilitated return assistance Better access to land & property Convinced by elders, family or friends Illegal taxation/extortion stopped Forced eviction Better social network Family reunification What will your household need in the location where you intend to return? Assistance needed to RETURN to place of origin Herat Assistance needed to RETURN to place of origin Badghis Significance (average, n=14): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Significance (average, n=96): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Peace/Cease Fire Land & property rights Peace/Cease Fire Land & property rights Districts of origin of families who intend to return with the above needs (see chart above). RETURN families in need Districts of Origin Herat RETURN families in need Districts of Origin Badghis % Badghis Balamurghab Badghis Ghormach Badghis Jawand Badghis Muqur 24 25% 15 16% 6 6% 1 1% Badghis Abkamari Badghis Balamurghab Badghis Ghormach Badghis Muqur 6 43% Badghis Qadis Herat Kushk-e-Kohna % Badghis Qadis Badghis Qala-e-Naw

8 8 If, what would help you make a decision to return, resettle or remain? Main decision-making factors for UNDECIDED Herat Main decision-making factors for UNDECIDED Badghis Better security Better environmental conditions Availability of humanitarian assistance Better availability of livelihoods Better access to health services Better availability of safe drinking water Better access to education Better access to markets Better shelter Better availability of pastures Planting season Facilitated return assistance Agricultural inputs availability or support Better access to land & property Convinced by elders, family or friends Forced eviction Family reunification Illegal taxation/extortion stopped Better social network Significance (average, n=1935): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= Better security Better availability of livelihoods Better environmental conditions Availability of humanitarian assistance Better availability of safe drinking water Better access to health services Better shelter Better access to education Better access to markets Planting season Better access to land & property Agricultural inputs availability or support Better availability of pastures Convinced by elders, family or friends Family reunification Facilitated return assistance Illegal taxation/extortion stopped Better social network Forced eviction Significance (average, n=1097): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= RESPONSE IMPLICATIONS Multi-dimensional drivers of displacement, such as conflict, drought, livelihoods, other natural disasters, and access to humanitarian assistance and basic services, show that a tailored response is required involving both humanitarian and development activities in order for people to return. Conflict / insecurity remains a predominant driver of displacement and underlying issue preventing IDPs from returning home. Peace/Cease Fire is a more significant need required for IDPs in Badghis who intend to return, than for IDPs in Herat. Humanitarian Assistance is a more significant pull factor for both displacement and return for the Herat IDP caseload, than for IDPs in Badghis. Most IDPs are likely to stay where they are for the foreseeable future, especially more so in Herat. There appears to be greater appetite for return in the Badghis IDP case-load, than in Herat. However, many IDP families are still undecided and will need to be convinced that returning home is a viable and sustainable option. To promote return, a communication strategy and outreach to IDPs through family, friends, newly arriving IDPs and mobile devices is essential. Preliminary results support the need for the Inter-Cluster Coordination Team (ICCT) to proceed with the integrated response pilot in Badghis, which is focused on places of origin, and includes return packages with significant food, WASH, shelter/nfi, and livelihoods/agriculture components. Muqur, Qala-e-Naw and Qadis districts are currently the most viable, priority target areas for the integrated response pilot. IDPs interested in Voluntary Return Districts of Origin Badghis (n=987) % % 34 3% % 0.1% % Badghis Abkamari Badghis Balamurghab Badghis Ghormach Badghis Jawand Badghis Muqur Badghis Qadis Badghis Qala-e-Naw Integrated Response Assistance needed in pilot districts Peace/Cease Fire Land & property rights Significance (average, n=74): 0 = not applicable; 1 = very unimportant, 2= DTM in Afghanistan is generously supported by: Co-funded by the European Union in coordination with For more information, please contact: DTMAfghanistan@iom.int