Introduction of the euro in the New Member States. Analytical Report

Transcription

1 Flash Eurobarometer European Commission Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Analytical Report Fieldwork: March 31 April Publication: June 2006 Flash Eurobarometer 183 Gallup Europe This survey was requested by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs and coordinated by Directorate General Communication This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.

2 Flash EB Series #183 Introduction of the euro in the new Member States Wave 3 Conducted by The Gallup Organisation Hungary/Europe upon the request of the European Commission, Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs Survey organised and managed by the Eurobarometer Team of Directorate-General Communication This document does not reflect the views of the European Commission. Any interpretations or opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors alone. THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION

3 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Introduction Despite a widespread belief to the contrary among their citizens, the New Member States of the European Union have the obligation to adopt the common currency, the euro, once they have fulfilled the economic stability criteria defined in the Maastricht Treaty. There is no common strategy or fixed timetable with regard to the introduction of the euro in each of the newly acceded member states. At present, seven New Member States have joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta), while the three largest countries - Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary - still remain outside of the common exchange rate mechanism. (A country must have been a member of the ERM II for a minimum of two years before adopting the euro). The New Member States are committed to adopt the euro as part of their accession to the EU. At present they are working to meet the economic entry criteria on government deficit and debt, inflation, interest rates and exchange rate stability. They are all expected to join the euro area in due time. There has been a lot of discussion in Member States and in European bodies about whether or not adherence to the nominal convergence criteria laid out in the Maastricht Treaty thus, a too early adoption of the euro is useful for the New Member States. Some national governments see a conflict between the Maastricht criteria and what they call real convergence needs (e.g., catching up with the per capita national income, wages, public services). Internal debates in some countries have even led to speculation about possible referenda occurring with regard to joining the euro-zone, which would effectively be a second referendum on membership itself. Concerning the introduction of the euro in the new EU countries, the European Commission is monitoring the opinion, -- the levels of knowledge and information and the familiarity with the single currency -- of citizens of the New Member States. The main themes in the report are the following: levels of knowledge and experience of the euro among citizens of the New Member States feelings as regards being informed - and the most favoured channels of information perceptions of the single currency expectations and fears concerning the adoptation of the euro This study is the third one, following on from earlier Eurobarometer surveys undertaken in 2004 and The content of the questionnaires is consistent with the previous waves, though the new interviewing mode (the current survey was predominantly done over the telephone) required certain modifications in actual questions wordings. The order of the questions changed as well, which may have had some effects on the responses we received (earlier studies started with the attitude questions, while the current one had experience and knowledge up front.) Of course, where possible, we will make a comparison of current results with those measured for 2005 and This report sums up the most important attitudes regarding the euro in New Member States, and highlights the most recent dynamics of opinions in each of the countries that are to adopt the euro in the future. The survey s fieldwork was carried out between 31 st of March and the 5 th of April Over 10,000 randomly selected citizens aged 15 years and above were interviewed in the ten new EU Member States. Interviews were predominantly done via landline telephone. Due to the relatively low fixed telephone coverage in the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, we sampled and interviewed 300 persons face to face as well. To correct for sampling disparities, a post-stratification weighting of the results was implemented, based on important socio-demographic variables. Analytical Report, page 3

4 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Table of Contents 1. Knowledge and experience of the euro Citizens knowledge regarding introduction of the euro and the euro-zone Obligation to adopt the euro Knowledge of current Euro zone countries Expected date of adoption of the euro Knowledge of euro banknotes Knowledge of euro coins Familiarity with the euro currency Euro banknotes Euro coins Where do people use the euro? Euro-related knowledge and experience in different socio-demographic segments Informing citizens on the euro Level, channels and content of information Self-perceived level of information Time framework for becoming informed about the euro Preferred distributors of information Preferred channels of information The most favoured topics of information campaigns Main activities and events essential for an information campaign Perceptions of and support for the single currency Consequences of introduction of the euro Consequences on national level Consequences on personal level Support for the single currency Opinions from the respondents environment Support of replacing the national currency with the euro The most desired time frame for adoption of the euro Status of the euro as an international currency Analysis by demographics Consequences of adopting the euro Political and economical consequences of introduction of the euro The euro as a threat to price stability? Favourable political and economic consequences of euro introduction The euro as an ingredient in European identity Practical consequences of the euro changeover Fears regarding the introduction of the euro Abuses and cheating on prices during the changeover Loss of national identity due to adoption of the euro Inconveniences suffered due to introduction of the euro Loss of control over national economic policy Analysis by demographics Annex tables Survey details page 4

5 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States 1. Knowledge and experience of the euro The first chapter looks at respondents actual knowledge of the euro and people s familiarity with the euro currency Citizens knowledge regarding introduction of the euro and the eurozone Can Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro? Can Member States choose whether or not to adopt the euro? Yes No [DK/NA] 04/ / / Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q5bis. Can (OUR ) choose whether or not to introduce the euro? % NMS10 A minority of citizens in the new Member States are aware of the fact that the euro will inevitably be the currency of their country within a few years. The level of knowledge is worse in 2006 than in previous years, however. Only 26% of the respondents gave the correct answer (-4 points compared to 2005, and -7 points compared to 2004), whereas 69% believed that their country can choose whether to adopt the euro or not. Respondents giving the correct answer did not outnumber those providing the wrong answer in any country; although citizens of the Czech Republic and Estonia were closest. The Czech Republic (41%) continues to be the country giving the largest amount of correct answers, along with Estonia (40%). The highest rates of incorrect answers were obtained in Poland (77%), Hungary (70%) and Cyprus (67%), with Poland remaining the country with the lowest degree knowledge concerning this issue. These numbers might reflect the national debates around the euro in some of the member states: people tend to believe that their country s full sovereignty exist in this issue in those countries where important national political players suggest that opting out might me an option for their country. Analytical Report, page 5

6 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Obligation to adopt the euro: % of correct ( NO ) answers 60 09/ / / NMS10 CZ EE SK LV MT SI CY LT HU PL Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q5bis. Can (OUR ) choose whether or not to introduce the euro? % of correct answers (NO), by country When taking a closer look at country by country results concerning the share of correct answers, some differences in time and also between countries can be seen. In all but two countries the level of knowledge concerning the obligatory nature of adoption of the euro went down between 2005 and This was the case especially in Hungary (-13 points) and Cyprus (-12 points). In Slovenia and Slovakia the level of knowledge has remained stable Knowledge of current Euro zone countries People s knowledge of the number of countries who already have the euro as their currency is more accurate than their knowledge concerning the inevitable introduction of the euro into their own countries. 38% of citizens know that there are already 12 countries that have adopted the euro, this being in accordance with figures for 2004 and Knowledge of the number of current euro zone countries [DK/NA] 04/ / / Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q5. According to you, how many EU countries have already introduced the euro? % NMS10 page 6

7 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States In spite of this, there were still a notable amount of respondents who stated otherwise - with 23% believing that 6 countries have adopted the euro and 19% holding the belief that all 15 of the old Member States have adopted it. Three percent of persons said that all 25 EU Member States now have the euro. With regard to this question, it needs to be also noted that the share of respondents stating that they did not know was relatively high (at 17%), albeit being lower than in previous years, when this figure was over a quarter of the total population. This is the case especially for countries where the share of correct answers are low as well i.e. being 29% in Lithuania and 27% in Malta, as well as 22% in Cyprus. In every country, the majority provided the correct answer. Slovenians (43%), Estonians (41%) and Cypriots (41%) are most likely to answer correctly; whereas the lowest amount of right answers can be found in Lithuania (31%), Malta (32%) and Latvia (35%). This was the case in previous years as well. Knowledge of the correct number of current euro zone countries ( 12 ) 60 09/ / / NMS10 SI EE CY HU SK CZ PL LV MT LT Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q5. According to you, how many EU countries have already introduced the euro? % of correct answers, by country Even though there are only minor changes that can be detected at a NMS10 level, some developments can be seen via a country by country analysis. The share of interviewees giving the correct answer has increased in all but two countries; and it is Estonia who depicts the greatest amount of growth, with 10 points. In contrast, however, the level of knowledge has decreased in Hungary (-4 points) and Poland (-1 points). In Poland the difference is well within sampling error, while the 4 percentage points decline in Hungary suggests a real negative tendency. Analytical Report, page 7

8 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Expected date of adoption of the euro Expected date of the adoption of the euro or later never DK/NA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% % 0% 22 Source: FLASH EB March-5 April Q5ter. When, in which year do you think the euro will be introduced in [OUR ]? % by country NMS10 SI MT CY LT EE LV SK PL CZ HU 7 This question was added in 2005 to be able to analyse respondents knowledge on the actual process and speed of adoption in their country. In general, people anticipate adoption of the euro as occurring in the near future, perhaps within four years time. Most respondents (40%) expected introduction of the euro to happen in their country in , which is the same proportion as that recorded for % of interviewees believed that euro adoption will take place in (a slightly lower rate than the 25% occurring in 2005), while 22% believe that such an event will happen at some time later than 2011 (the same rate as in 2005). When looking at country-based results here, a great amount of variation can be seen. Slovenians (97%), the Maltese (85%) and Cypriots (83%) are ahead in believing that adoption will take place in whereas only 7% of Hungarian respondents agreed with the idea of such a time framework. 2% of Slovenians, 1% of Cypriots and 1% of Latvians mentioned 2006 as the expected year of the adoption of the euro for them. The majority of respondents in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland expect the euro to be adopted in , as was the case in Here, a form of connection between ERM II members and ideas of a more rapid expected time of euro introduction can be seen. The popular expectations reflect the actual outlooks in each country with a surprising level of accuracy. Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia and Slovakia have joined the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary union and therefore indeed are potential candidates for near-term euro zone membership. Looking at survey data, in all but one countries that are included in ERM II (the exception is Slovakia), the majority of respondents expected adoption to happen in , whereas in those page 8

9 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States countries still outside the common exchange mechanism - Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic - the time of euro introduction was expected to be later. Slovenia will most probably be given green light to join the common currency system in 2007 (just recently, after the survey fieldwork, the Commission paved the way for the entry with its positive assessment of the Slovenian compliance with the Maastricht criteria). At the same time the other potential early candidate, Lithuania was not able to fulfil the inflation criterion therefore its inclusion has been delayed. Now it hopes, along with its fellow Baltic States to join at least one year later. Slovakia set its target date to 2009, and correspondingly, the majority of Slovakians mentioned as well the date 2009 to have their own euro. When/in which year do you think the euro will be introduced into [OUR ]? (%) before or later Never NMS SI MT CY LT EE LV SK PL CZ HU It is also interesting to compare the results of this question with the question concerning when persons would like to have the euro as their own currency (Q16). As we will see later, most citizens would like to have the euro adopted either after a certain time - or as late as possible (this being the case chiefly with Latvians, Czechs and Slovakians), but their wishes are not necessary in line with their expectations in this respect. Hungarians, Poles and Czechs expect the date of euro adoption to be in 2011 or beyond. Slovenes, Maltese and Cypriots expect its introduction to occur in 2007 (a date overwhelmingly expected especially in Slovenia) or Analytical Report, page 9

10 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Knowledge of euro banknotes The question wording from 2006 was slightly modified in this and the subsequent question about the euro coins. In previous years, respondents had to decide if the coins and the notes look the same in the euro area while in 2006 we précised the questions and we ask respondents to choose the correct one from the following statements: (1) Euro banknotes/coins look exactly the same in all countries that use the euro or (2) Euro banknotes/coins have partly different designs from country to country. Correct knowledge of euro banknotes: the euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries that use the euro 09/ / / / / / : Q3. And what do you think, which of the following statements is correct? The euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries / have partly different designs from country to country/ that use the euro Source: % NMS10 FLASH EB March-5 April : Q15. According to you, do the euro banknotes look the same in all countries of the euro area? Yes /No /DK/NA % NMS10 In all but four countries, correct answers outnumber incorrect ones. The Czechs (61%), Estonians (57%) and Poles (45%) have the highest proportion of persons giving the right answer. In contrast, the highest proportion of wrong answers ( Euro banknotes have partly different designs ) can be found in Malta (49%), Slovenia (48%) and Slovakia (48%). These three countries, as well as Cyprus, are those where those answering incorrectly outnumber those providing a correct answer, (with 22 points, 10 points, 8 points and 6 points). page 10

11 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Correct knowledge of euro banknotes: euro banknotes look the same in all countries of the euro area 80 09/ / / NMS10 CZ EE PL HU LV SK LT SI CY MT Source: FLASH EB March-5 April : Q3. What do you think, which of the following statements is correct? The euro banknotes look exactly the same in all countries / have partly different designs from country to country/ that use the euro % NMS : Q15. According to you, do the euro banknotes look the same in all countries of the euro area? Yes /No /DK/NA % NMS10 It should be noted, that the rate of non-respondents is high in countries with a low level of knowledge regarding this question - i.e. Cyprus (34%) and Malta (24%), but also in Poland (25%). Analytical Report, page 11

12 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Knowledge of euro coins As described in the previous point, the question wording was slightly modified in Correct knowledge of euro coins: the euro coins have partly different designs from country to country 04/ / / Source: FLASH EB March-5 April : Q4. And what do you think, which of the following statements is correct? The euro coins look exactly the same in all countries- / have partly different designs from country to country/ that use the euro % NMS : Q16. According to you, do the euro coins look the same in all countries of the euro area? Yes /No /DK/NA % NMS10 In contrast to the knowledge of euro banknotes, only a minority of respondents knew that euro coins look different in each country - and this was the case not only in 2004 and 2005, but in 2006, too. The share of correct answers is 37% in % of respondents mistakenly believed that euro coins look the same everywhere. Once again, a notable amount of respondents stated that they did not know the correct response (22%), which can be interpreted as a lack of knowledge about this subject. At a country level, Slovenia (67%), Estonia (57%), Malta (56%) and Slovakia (53%) are the Member States where a clear majority of respondents answered this question correctly. In all but two countries did the share of those giving the correct answer outnumber those answering incorrectly, namely in Slovenia (+44 points), Malta (+37 points) and Estonia (+34 points). The two countries where more people answered incorrectly then correctly are the Czech Republic (-21 points) and Poland (-11 points). Thus, Poland and the Czech Republic (32-32%) are the countries with the lowest level of correct knowledge. Again, it needs to be noted that the number of don t knows is relatively high, reaching more than one fifth of the total population. And non-response rates were particularly high in Cyprus (35%), Poland (26%) and Malta (25%). page 12

13 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States 1.2. Familiarity with the euro currency With questions concerning whether respondents had seen or have used euro banknotes or coins, the aim was to evaluate people s familiarity with the euro as a currency. Both the amount of those having seen and of those having used euro banknotes and coins has gone up continuously during the years. A solid majority of persons have seen euro banknotes and coins (80% and 75% respectively) - and more than half of those who have seen the currency have also used it (56% and 55% respectively). The proportion of those seeing and using euro coins has increased only slightly since last year. Have you already seen used (among those seen it) euro euro banknotes (%) banknotes (%) 04/ / / / / / / 2006 Have you already seen used (among those seen it) euro euro coins (%) coins (%) 09/ / / / 2005 NMS SI CY CZ PL EE LV SK LT HU MT / Euro banknotes In 2006, 80% of respondents indicated that they had seen euro banknotes. This is 1 point more than one year before, and 7 points more than in Similarly to the results of 2004 and 2005, we can say that the countries with the highest rate of those who have seen euro banknotes are Slovenia (95%) and Cyprus (83%), as well the Czech Republic (83%). The largest growth in the number of people having seen euro banknotes can be found in the Czech Republic (+8 points) and Slovakia (+5 points); and there has been some growth in this respect in both Poland and Latvia (+2-2% points). Out of those having already seen euro banknotes, 56% have also used them. This rate increases by 3 percentage points in one year - and by 7 percentage points in two years. In accordance with the results of 2004 and 2005, the countries where most respondents had used such banknotes are Slovenia (84%) and Cyprus (84%). In contrast, in Lithuania (48%) and Poland (48%) fewer than one half of those who have seen such banknotes have also used them (although there was a slight increase for these countries over 2005). Analytical Report, page 13

14 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization The highest increase in the number of persons having actually used euro banknotes is to be found in the Czech Republic (+10 points) and Estonia (+9 points); and there has been some increase in Hungary (+4 points), Poland (+2 points), Latvia and Lithuania (both +1 point) Euro coins With euro coins, the number of citizens of the NMS10 who have seen euro coins remains lower than that of those having seen banknotes (the rate being 75%). Still, the annual increase for this score is 4 percentage points. As in 2004 and 2005, Slovenia (90%) and Cyprus (79%) continue to be the countries where most respondents had seen euro coins, as is also the case with euro banknotes. Lithuania (61%) and Latvia (63%) remain the countries with the fewest persons having seen euro coins. The greatest increase for those having seen euro coins can be found in the Czech Republic (+8 points) and Poland (+7 points), while there has been some increase in Slovakia (+3 points), Lithuania (+2 points) and Estonia (+1 point), too. The share of persons having both seen and also used euro coins is 55%, which is a similar result to that of 2005 and is 5 percentage points more than in Once again, Cyprus (84%) and Slovenia (83%) are the countries in which the great majority of persons say that they have made use of euro coins. This was also the case in 2004 and Lithuanians (47%) and Poles (48%) are the persons least likely to have used euro coins, and are less likely to have seen them before. The most marked increase in the number of persons having used euro coins is found in the Czech Republic (+5 points) and Estonia (+2 points), while there has also been some increase in Poland and Lithuania (+1 point each). page 14

15 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States 1.3. Where do people use the euro? Not surprisingly, the environment where usage of the euro currency is most likely to take place is abroad. 67% of the respondents in the NMS10 states had used euro banknotes abroad, whereas 71% indicated that they have used euro coins in a different country than their own. These scores are higher than one year earlier (with an increase of +6 points and +4 points respectively). You said you already used euro banknotes. Was it... (%) IN [] ABROAD IN [] AND ABROAD NMS CY MT CZ SK EE HU SI LT PL LV You said you already used euro coins. Was it... (%) IN [] ABROAD IN [] AND ABROAD NMS CY MT CZ SK EE HU SI LT PL LV The share of those using euro banknotes or coins in their own country went down between 2005 and 2006, the score being 13% for banknotes and 9% for coins. Also, the rates of those using the euro in cash transactions both in their country and abroad accord with the results of one year ago, the share being 20% for banknotes and 19% for coins. When looking at country-level results more closely, the largest share of respondents who had used the euro - both banknotes and coins - abroad can be found in Cyprus, where 95-95% of persons have used euro banknotes and coins whilst being abroad. In addition, citizens of Malta (94% and 93%) and the Czech Republic (83% and 82%) have used the euro currency almost exclusively abroad. These results are like those obtained in previous surveys. Usage of the euro abroad has been high for 2006 in Slovakia (81% and 87%), too. Analytical Report, page 15

16 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization The highest share of those having used the euro in their own country can again be detected for Lithuania, the score being 27% for banknotes and 17% for coins (in 2005: 37% and 26%). Also in Latvia, Poland and Hungary, the rates of persons using the euro inside the country is high, the respective figures being 25%-18%-12% for banknotes and 13%-13%-9% for coins Euro-related knowledge and experience in different sociodemographic segments There are certain general trends which can be seen throughout this survey (and even across surveys). We consistently find that men rather than women, the youngest generation, rather than older people, more highly educated people, self-employed persons, and also people from big cities as compared to rural areas have better knowledge and more extensive experience of the euro. We can also conclude, in general, that the highest ratio of citizens who don t want or couldn t correctly answer the questions were most likely to be found among females, among older citizens, among the less well educated, the unemployed and also among persons dwelling in rural areas. In the Annex Tables attached to this report the reader can find the demographic breakdowns for each question posed for the survey. page 16

17 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States 2. Informing citizens on the euro The second chapter analyses citizens feelings of being informed about the euro, the most preferred information channels and means, the content of the information needed and when the distribution of such information should take place Level, channels and content of information Self-perceived level of information Respondents who felt that they are well-informed about the common European currency are a minority. In 2006, only 37% see themselves as being well-informed, whereas a majority of 60% state that they are not well-informed, out of which 18% do not feel well-informed at all. The overall feeling of information Very well informed Rather well informed Not very well informed Not at all well informed [DK/NA] 04/ / / Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q6. To what extent do you feel informed about the euro? Do you feel : % NMS10 There is a significant decline, however, for those not feeling well-informed (-7 points) and an increase for those who do feel informed (+5 points). Thus, we can tentatively talk about a trend of increasing level of self-perceived information. As in all previous years, Slovenians feel the most informed about the euro, by far, with the score here being 80%. This rate is 43 points above the NMS10 average; and the Czech Republic and Slovakia follow with more modest shares of 48% and 45% of those feeling informed about the euro. (This ranking of countries is different from that detected in 2005, when Cyprus and Hungary followed on from Slovenia.) The countries with the smallest numbers of persons feeling informed are Latvia (31%), Poland (32%) and Malta (33%). Logically, these countries are also the ones possessing the most people stating that they are not well-informed - at, respectively, 68%, 65% and 65%. In Hungary as well twothirds of respondents claim to be not well-informed. The countries with the smallest number of interviewees feeling informed were Latvia (28% well-informed) and Malta (29%). Analytical Report, page 17

18 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization To what extent do you feel informed about the euro? Do you feel? (%) Quite well + Very well-informed Not very well + not at all informed NMS SI CZ SK LT CY EE HU MT PL LV The changes in individual countries are not notable in some cases, yet there is a trend that can be detected among countries having a majority of persons feeling well-informed and countries possessing more citizens who do not feel so informed. In the first group, the share of those feeling well-informed is increasing significantly in Slovenia (+20 points), the Czech Republic (+17 points), Slovakia (+13 points) and Lithuania (+11 points) - and has gone up slightly in Malta (+4 points), Latvia (+3 points), Estonia (+2 points) and Poland (+1 point). There are only Cyprus (-7 points) and Hungary (-2 points) where the proportion of well-informed respondents went down between 2005 and In Hungary and Cyprus the number of well-informed citizens decreased between 2005 and 2006, while these ratios had increased between 2004 and In contrast, while in Poland, Malta and the Czech Republic we saw an increase in these measurements between 2005 and 2006, such figures decreased between 2004 and The highest number feeling well-informed are males, the younger generation, those with a higher level of education, the self-employed and those from medium-sized cities. page 18

19 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Time framework for becoming informed about the euro Desired timeframe for being informed on the euro As soon as possible A few years before A few months before A few weeks before [At least a few days before /2005] [DK/NA] 04/ / / Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q7. When would you like to be informed about the introduction of euro in (OUR )? as soon as possible / a few years before / a few months before / a few weeks before % NMS10 Q18. When would you like to be informed about the euro? as soon as possible / at least a few years before / at least a few months before / at least a few weeks before/ at least a few days before % NMS10 As in all previous years, a majority of citizens in the new Member States would like to be informed about the euro well in advance. It is sometimes hard to compare what the different time perspectives mean in comparison with the different national target dates (e.g. a few years before does not have a relevance in Slovenia anymore, etc.), but generally, the selection of the as soon as possible and the a few years before categories mean a rather immediate need for information in this matter. Around a third of those who are not informed want to be informed as soon as possible (28%) and at least a few years before the event (30%) - or at least a few months before it (33%). The share of those who want the required information only a few weeks beforehand is notably lower (5%). There have been only slight changes at the NMS10 level taking place during the year: more citizens want to be informed sooner rather than later in 2006, as compared to the case in 2004 or 2005 also reflecting the shorter perspective. At a country level, the countries where persons are most likely to want their information as soon as possible are Cyprus (61%), Malta (51%) and Lithuania (51%). The smallest percentages wanting this are Hungarians, Latvians and Polish (25% each). Hungarians and the Latvians want to know the details a few years beforehand, while the Poles would like such information only a few months earlier. The countries where respondents have adopted a slower pace with regard to their acquiring information about the euro are Slovenia, the Czech Republic and Poland - where the largest share of persons wants to be informed about the euro a few months before introduction of the currency (40%, 37% and 35% respectively). Analytical Report, page 19

20 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization All in all, these results show that there exists a wide need for information about the euro, and since the accession of new Member States to the euro-zone is becoming closer and closer, requests and desires for information are present today. Desired timeframe for being informed on the euro As soon as possible A few years before A few months before A few weeks before DK/NA NMS10 CY MT LT SI SK EE CZ PL LV HU Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q7. When would you like to be informed about the introduction of euro in (OUR )? % by country Base: who are not informed Looking at the results in different socio-demographic segments, women, manual workers and those from medium-sized cities would like to get information soonest - whilst men, those with a higher level of education, and employees feel less of an urge to learn of consequences. page 20

21 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States Trusted distributors of information on euro When it comes to the most favoured distributors of information, we gathered information asking people whether or not they trusted each of the groups/institutions listed. Preferred distributors for information and campaigns: trust % National Central Bank 77 European Institutions 70 Commercial banks Government, national or regional authorities Public administration Consumer associations 49 Journalists 43 Trade unions, professional organisations, etc Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q8. For each of the following institutions or groups, please tell me if you would trust information they provide on the changeover to the euro, or not? trust / doesn t trust / [DK/NA] % NMS10 Trust is a key factor in information provision: people differentiate between possible sources primarily based on their assessments of how trustworthy a particular source is. It is therefore essential to provide the necessary information through channels that are widely trusted in countries that plan to adopt the euro. Traditionally, as previous measurements have already established, national central banks are the most trustworthy sources of information regarding the euro and issues related to a changeover. Thus, as said, when considering information about the euro, National Central Banks are found by far to be the most reliable sources of information (77%). European Institutions follow second here, with a 70% share - and Commercial banks come third, with a 52% rating. The government or national authorities are only in fourth place (51%) in In every country, the National Central Bank is considered to be the most trustworthy source of information (as it was in 2004 and 2005 when we used a slightly different approach to ask this question), ranging from 70% in Lithuania to 89% in Slovenia. It is interesting to take a quick look at the role played by European institutions. These were mentioned in second or third place in all countries, being the second most trusted institutions, ahead of other national sources in the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Commercial banks are not among the first three mentions in six out of our ten countries (in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and Cyprus). In these countries the government and related authorities are trusted more (Estonia, Latvia, Hungary and Cyprus), or consumer associations can play such a role (in Poland and Slovenia); while in one instance even journalists are more trusted (in Lithuania). Analytical Report, page 21

22 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Most trusted information sources in each country (% trust) CZ EE LV LT CY Central Bank 86 Central Bank 80 Central Bank 78 Central Bank 70 Central Bank 85 European Institutions 74 Commercial banks 74 Government, authorities 71 European Institutions 65 European Institutions 62 European Institutions 63 Government, authorities 58 Journalists 45 Government, authorities 76 European Institutions 72 HU MT PL SK SI Central Bank 86 Central Bank 85 Central Bank 71 Central Bank 88 Central Bank 89 European Institutions 80 Government, authorities 66 Commercial banks 83 European Institutions 70 European Institutions 66 Consumer associations 55 European Institutions 78 Commercial banks 70 Consumer associations 79 European Institutions 78 As a general trend, though, we can conclude that certain demographic groupings trust all kinds of bodies as information sources about euro: namely, women, the younger generation, those still in education, employees and persons dwelling in metropolitan areas Preferred channels of information The question about the most favoured channels via which to acquire information also had a different wording in 2006 than it did in previous years. While in we asked our respondents the question: Where do you think useful information on the euro and the changeover should be available? in 2006 it was slightly changed to gain a more personal perspective: Where would you like to receive useful information on the euro and the changeover? This is the reason why any direct comparison can only made with some caution. Preferred channels for information and campaigns On television 92 In banks In newspapers, magazines On the radio On the Internet In schools and other places of education and training 73 In public places In your letter box In the workplace In supermarkets and shops 50 Source: FLASH EB March-5 April Q9. Where would you like to receive useful information on the euro and the changeover? % NMS10 As in that TV is seen as the most useful channel for the information distribution 92% see it this way in Banks (87%), newspapers and magazines (85%) and the radio (81%) follow as places where information about the euro should be available. page 22

23 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States In addition, the familiar daily life environment of supermarkets and shops (50%) and also workplaces (60%) are seen as places to acquire information concerning the changeover to the euro - these are not at all low in absolute terms, for they were mentioned by half of all citizens. The items Internet as well as the in the banks have been hinting that people were not answering this question from their own perspective only: the proportions who actually use bank services or the Internet, are well below those wishing information to be available through these channels, too. As these too examples show very strikingly, such self-reports are rarely accurate, therefore communication campaigns are usually designed on the basis of viewership / and other audience information rather than on the basis of self-reported preferences regarding the channels of communication. Looking at country-specific differences, in all countries but one television is mentioned in first place as the most preferred information channel, ranging from 84% in the Czech Republic and Estonia to 97% in Malta. The only exception here is Slovenia, where citizens mentioned banks at the highest rate (92%), and television comes only in second place. Banks are mentioned in second or third place in eight other countries, being second in the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Cyprus and Slovakia. Only in Malta are banks not in people s first three mentions. Other most preferred channels in individual countries mentioned in second or third place are newspapers, magazines, and schools or other places of education. The radio has a special place only in Hungary, where it is the third most trustworthy channel alongside television and banks. Most preferred channels for information and campaigns (% prefer) CZ EE LV LT CY On television 84 On television 84 On television 91 On television 87 On television 87 In banks 82 In banks 81 In print media 88 In print media 78 In banks 83 In print media 76 In print media 78 In banks 87 In banks 74 In schools 80 HU MT PL SK SI On television 87 On television 97 On television 96 On television 86 In banks 92 In banks 78 In schools 93 In print media 95 In banks 84 On television 90 On the radio 70 In print media 93 In banks 92 In print media 81 In print media 84 In general, all channels giving useful information on the euro and the changeover are liked by the younger generation, by those still in education, by employees and by persons living in metropolitan areas. There are some exceptions, however: manual workers emphasized the importance of one s letter box, the workplace, supermarkets and shops, as did those from rural areas (who referred to public places and supermarkets, too). Analytical Report, page 23

24 Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States The Gallup Organization Most favoured topics of information campaigns Research respondents were also asked to define what kind of topics the information campaigns about the euro should, first of all, cover. As was the case with most preferred distributors and channels question, we gathered information here using a modified question. While in 2004 and 2005 respondents had to say what the most important issue was for them firstly and secondly, in 2006 we asked, with regard to each issue, whether they were essential or not. A direct comparison with previous years is, again, therefore not possible here. As to the content of the information required, citizens are convinced that each of the topics we suggested for inclusion in any euro information campaign are more or less essential requirements. Preferred topics for information and campaigns The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] 93 How to avoid being cheated in euro currency conversions 92 The way how the euro will be introduced in [ ] The practical implications of the euro regarding your salary. your bank account The social. economic or political implications of the euro What notes and coins in euros look like Source: FLASH EB March-5 April 2006 Q10. In your view, which of the following issues about the euro are essential to be covered in priority by the information campaign? essential/ not essential/ [DK/NA] % NMS10 Citizens of the new Member States think that the value of one euro in one s local currency (93%) as well as how to avoid being cheated in euro currency conversions (92%) and the way in which the euro will be introduced in one s country concern them directly (90%) and it is essential that these are covered by any information campaign. Fewer citizens (though in absolute terms rather than in a high number) mentioned the practical implications of the euro regarding one s salary and bank account (88%) and also the social, economic or political implications of the euro (86%) as the most important issues that an information campaign will have to cover. Interest in knowing what euro banknotes and coins look like was mentioned in the last place (82%) and this figure might positively contribute to the low performance of respondents with regard to their knowing what euro coins look like. Looking at country-specific data here, some differences can be seen as regards priorities concerning topics that people consider important for information campaign coverage. The most popular topic at the NMS10 level (the value of one euro in local currency) was mentioned first in half of the new member countries only, namely in Cyprus, Poland, Latvia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. While how to avoid being cheated in any euro currency conversion was mentioned as the most important page 24

25 The Gallup Organization Flash EB N o 183 Introduction of the euro in the New Member States topic in Slovenia, Malta and Lithuania. Slovakians saw the changeover scenario as the most important topic, while Estonians viewed the practical implications of the euro regarding their salary and bank account as causing the most concern. All of the topics mentioned in first place in some countries, appear as second or third places in other ones. In the Czech Republic only one new item comes into view as being one of the first three most important topics: the social, economic or political implications of the euro. It is interesting to check if there is any association between the preference list of topics for information and campaign and the date of introduction of the euro. As we know, the Baltic States, as well Slovenia and Slovakia are already the members of ERM II. But the top three preferred topics of these countries do not differ significantly of those rankings we see in Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, not yet in the ERM II.. One common evaluation we can clearly emphasize: in all three countries from this second group the most essential topic is the value of one euro in currency. In ERM II. member countries is most essential to find out about avoiding to be cheated in euro currency conversions. Preferred topics for information and campaigns (% essential) CZ EE LV LT CY The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] Changeover scenario Socio-economic implications The practical implications of the euro How to avoid being cheated Changeover scenario The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] How to avoid being cheated The practical implications of the euro How to avoid being cheated The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] Changeover scenario HU MT PL SK SI The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] How to avoid being cheated Changeover scenario How to avoid being cheated The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] Changeover scenario The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] How to avoid being cheated Changeover scenario Changeover scenario How to avoid being cheated The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] How to avoid being cheated The practical implications of the euro How to avoid being cheated The value of one euro in [CURRENCY] Changeover scenario Women, the year-old persons, employees and metropolitan citizens are those mentioning at the highest rate any topic upon which persons require information regarding the euro changeover. More highly-educated persons are concerned above average with having information on the practical implications of the euro regarding one s salary and bank account as well as on the social, economic or political implications of euro adoption. Analytical Report, page 25