PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: ALABAMA, IOWA, MISSISSIPPI, MONTANA, NEW JERSEY, NEW MEXICO, and SOUTH DAKOTA

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1 PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: ALABAMA, IOWA, MISSISSIPPI, MONTANA, NEW JERSEY, NEW MEXICO, and SOUTH DAKOTA P RIME-A RY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. You will notice that the California primaries are not included on this . Because CA has such a large percentage of the population that votes by mail, many of these races have not yet been called. Therefore, to provide you with the most accurate and timely information, the California races will follow in a separate . However, at this point, it appears that Democrats have avoided being shut out of their top pick-up opportunities. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! ALABAMA A deep red state that was the site of one of the most unlikely Democratic Senate victories last year when Sen. Doug Jones (D) defeated Roy Moore (R). This year, there are not likely to be any such surprises, and there are not expected to be any competitive House races, although there will be a runoff in one House race. Any runoffs for Alabama races will occur on July 17. GUBERNATORIAL After replacing disgraced former Governor Robert Bentley last year, Governor Kay Ivey is running for a full term in November. She emerged victorious in a five-person Republican primary yesterday, gaining a 56% majority. With Alabama being a deep-red, it was the Republican primary that Ivey was expected to receive her toughest challenge. As the favorite going into November, she'll face Democrat Walt Maddox.

2 Walt Maddox (D) Tuscaloosa mayor Walt Maddox emerged with 54% of the vote from Alabama Democrats, placing him on the ballot against incumbent Kay Ivey in November. Maddox gained national attention for his handling of the aftermath of the 2011 tornado in Tuscaloosa, where 64 people lost their lives. While Democratic turnout has plummeted over the years in Alabama, Maddox hopes to join Senator Doug Jones as the second elected statewide Democrat. AL-02 This Safe Republican seat hosted one of the more dynamic primaries yesterday. The seat is currently represented by Rep. Martha Roby (R), a four-term congresswoman. The district includes most of the Montgomery metropolitan area, and has a Cook PVI score of R+16. Republican Runoff Incumbent Martha Roby received only 39% of the vote yesterday, sending the race to a runoff with Bobby Bright. Bright formerly represented the seat for the term as a Democrat, but was defeated by Roby in the 2010 general election. Soon after, Bright switched to the Republican Party and will now be challenging his former opponent once again-this time in a Republican runoff next month. President Trump's popularity in the district, coupled with Roby's occasional criticism of the president, is largely where the uprising against Roby gained traction. The district includes most of the Montgomery metropolitan area, and has a Cook PVI score of R+16. IOWA Iowa will have a competitive gubernatorial race in November, along with competitive House races. Iowa is always interesting during midterm season because it's one of few states that draws its congressional seats based on nonpartisan, independent metrics. Gerrymandering is virtually nonexistent. As a result, three of Iowa's four congressional districts are considered competitive, and some even "toss ups."

3 GUBERNATORIAL Incumbent Kim Reynolds, who was appointed by then Gov. Terry Branstad to the position when he left to become the current Ambassador to China, ran uncontested. In 2014, Brandstad won 59% of the vote, but Reynolds has had popularity issues and has only a 42% approval rating. However, the race is rated as "Likely Republican." Fred Hubbell (D) Yesterday, Iowa Democrats rallied around Fred Hubbell for governor, as he emerged with 55% of the vote and avoided a nominating convention in a six-person Democratic primary. Hubbell has a business background, which includes leading two Iowa companies. He served as chairman of a retailer, Younkers, before entering the life insurance business. He has also served as chairman of the Iowa Power Fund, where he was responsible for managing the state's investment in alternative energy sources. IA-01 Iowa's first district has a Cook P VI score of D+1, forcing Republican incumbent Rod Blum to play an aggressive game of defense in November. The district is fairly urban, encompassing the population centers of Cedar Rapids, Dubuque and Waterloo. Abby Finkenauer (D) Dubuque native and member of the Iowa House of Representatives, Abby Finkenauer won 67% of the vote in IA-01's Democratic primary. Finkenauer has received high-profile endorsements from EMILY's List and the DCCC, which listed her as one of its "Red to Blue" candidates. She was also the top fundraising candidate in the primary, raising over $1 million. IA-03 Iowa's third district has a Cook P VI score of R+1, and includes the state's largest city and capital, Des Moines. Axne will challenge Republican incumbent David Young in November for a race that is considered highly competitive. Democratic Runoff Small-business owner Cindy Axne emerged with 57% of the vote in a three-person Democratic primary for IA-03. Despite having relatively comparable fundraising receipts with her two opponent, Cindy Axne received a much broader coalition of

4 support from state and local political leaders. MISSISSIPPI The run-off election will take place on June 26. Mississippi will have an interesting election in November, at least partly because the state's two U.S. Senate seats will both be on the ballot, thanks to the retirement of longtime Sen. Thad Cochran (R- MS). Republicans will look to head-off a result similar to that of Alabama's special Senate election last year, when Democratic Sen. Doug Jones was able to seize the opportunity in a deep red state because of a deeply flawed opponent. There is no primary election for Cochran's Senate seat, and the candidates will battle for election in November. SENATE Roger Wicker easily cruised to victory Tuesday night, crushing challenger Richard Boyanton by over 65 points in a shockingly lopsided race. Wicker, who many expected to face a tough primary challenge this election cycle, was helped by Thad Cochran's retirement earlier this year which led to a simultaneous special election in November to determine who will serve out the remainder of Cochran's term. With the field of potential primary challengers spread out across two Senate elections this cycle, Wicker easily beat his challenger, and, unlike those in the Democratic primary, avoided having to compete in a runoff election later this month. Democratic Runoff Howard Sherman and David Baria, the top two performing Democratic candidates, will compete in a runoff election later this month after failing to attain at least 50% of the primary vote. Both candidates had nearly identical vote totals with Sherman at 32% and Baria at 31.1%, respectfully, and will compete head to head on June 26 to determine who will ultimately face incumbent Roger Wicker in November. Wicker will be heavily favored against either candidate, after winning his 2012 election with nearly 60% of the vote.

5 MS-03 This Safe Republican seat is open in November because of the retirement of five-term congressman Gregg Harper (R). Harper currently represents Jackson, Mississippi, and won his last election with 66% of the vote. Although Michael Evans, a poultry farmer, won the Democratic primary by 38 points, he is unlikely to win in November. Republican Runoff Republicans Michael Guest and White Hughes will enter a runoff after coming first and second in the Republican primary with 44.9% and 22.2% of the vote, respectfully. Guest will be the heavy favorite for the primary, as he was just short of getting 50% in a field of 6 candidates. MONTANA Montana will have two important statewide races in Novemberone for a U.S. Senate seat and the other for its At-Large House seat. President Trump won this state in 2016 with 56.2% of the vote, but Democratic Governor Steve Bullock was also victorious. SENATE Sen. Jon Tester (D) is running for his third term in the Senate this year. In 2012, he defeated then-rep. Denny Rehberg (R) with 48.6% of the vote. Tester is well-liked in the state, with a 56% approval rating, and managed to avoid Republicans top choices to replace him when they both declined to run. Tester, who is famously missing fingers due to an accident with a meat grinder, will be a formidable opponent. Matt Rosendale (R) The Montana state auditor will face Tester in November. Winning 33.8% of the primary vote, Rosendale was the clear favorite in the race and had received significant support from outside groups. Rosendale ran in the primary as an ardent supporter of President Trump and included building the wall across the Mexican border as one of his priorities. MT-AT LARGE

6 Montana's House seat hosted an interesting special election last summer, though only partially due to the competitive nature of the race. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) garnered headlines for body-slamming a reporter the day before the election. He is running again in this R+11 district. Kathleen Williams (D) Winning 33.5% of the vote, Williams will face the incumbent Gianforte in November. A former state legislator, she also has a background in natural resources issues and has worked at the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife & Parks and the U.S. Forest Service. Williams highlighted jobs, healthcare, and the state's natural resources in her campaign. NEW JERSEY In a state that Clinton won with 55% of the vote, New Jersey is one of the prime states for Democratic pickups in the House. The state elected a Democratic governor last year in a landslide, which should be at least partially attributed to the low approval ratings for departing Governor Chris Christie (R). It is conceivable that Republicans could lose all their House seats in northern New Jersey for the first time in decades (or hundreds) of years. SENATE Embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D) won his primary with 67% of the vote. However, it is notable that his challenger, a little-known candidate with virtually no fundraising chest, was able to win almost 38% of the vote- a sign that Democrats cast votes to protest Menendez's corruption allegations. However, because of the make-up of the state, Menendez is likely to win reelection in November. Bob Hugin (R) Bob Hugin will be the Republican nominee to face Menendez in November, as he overwhelmingly came out of his primary last night. Hugin, a former Marine, also served as the CEO of Celgene Corp. Although he supported Trump in 2016, Hugin said that he would stand up to the President and promised to support abortion rights, gay marriage and equal pay. NJ-02

7 Normally this district would be considered an unlikely Democratic pickup. However, with the retirement of 12-term Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R), Democrats see the open seat as a prime opportunity. This district is considered by most as a "Tossup" and has a partisan leaning of R+1. Jeff Van Drew (D) The preferred candidate of the DCCC, Van Drew won the primary with 55.4% of the vote. Considered a conservative Democrat, Van Drew served in the New Jersey legislature for 16 years. A dentist by trade, Van Drew has drawn the ire of some progressive Democrats for his past votes against same-sex marriage, gun control, and increasing the minimum wage. Seth Grossman (R) Grossman's primary victory is one of the surprises from last night. Winning 39% of the vote, he defeated two better funded opponents. He is an attorney and conservative activist who last won an election in 1988 for Atlantic County freeholder, and his victory left some Republicans worried that he may be too conservative for the district in this year's election climate. NJ-03 Rep. Tom MacArthur (R), a two-term Congressman, cruised to victory in this district in However, this R+2 district is a top Democratic target, partially due to MacArthur's actions during last year's Obamacare repeal debate when he supported attempts to restrict coverage for pre-existing conditions. His reelection could well depend if the district's Republican tilt is enough to overcome Democratic enthusiasm. Andy Kim (D) Kim was unopposed in his primary and will take on MacArthur in November. A veteran of the Obama Administration who served as the Director for Iraq on the National Security Council. Kim is running on being accessible, transparent, and accountable, with promises to hold town halls every month and not accept corporate PAC money. NJ-05 The 5th District is one of Republican's few legitimate pick-up opportunities in the northeast. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) is a first-term Congressman who defeated a sitting Member in However, this district has a Republican voter advantage (R+3) and Gottheimer could be vulnerable this

8 year. Cook Political Report rates this race as "Likely Democratic." John McCann (R) Winning 53% of the vote in his two person primary, McCann secured the opportunity to face Gottheimer in November. The former legal counsel to the Bergen County Sheriff, McCann defeated perennial candidate Steve Lonegan. McCann embraced President Trump in the primary and ran as a "constitutional conservative." NJ-07 Incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance (R), a five-term Congressman, is facing a wave of anti-trump sentiment. Although he voted against the Republican tax reform package in its district because of the impact it would have on his constituents (cuts to the state and local deduction), Lance voted to repeal Obamacare, something he will have to justify in the run-up to the election. Although he faced two challengers, he easily secured victory in this R+3 district that is rated as a "Tossup." Tom Malinowski (D) Malinowski won his primary handily, receiving 66.8% of the vote. Born in Poland, he was a Rhodes Scholar who served on the staff of the National Security Council under President Clinton. Malinowski served as an Assistant Secretary of State for President Obama and proudly states that Sen. John McCain (R- A Z) introduced him at his confirmation hearing because of their friendship forged during their work in human rights. He ran on healthcare, jobs, and "breaking the NRA." NJ-11 When 12-term Congressman and Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee Rodney Frelinghuysen announced that he would not run for reelection, this northern New Jersey district became a prime Democratic opportunity. An R+3 district, it combines the Democratic-leaning parts of Essex County and the Republican-heavy Morris County. It is rated as a "Tossup." Jay Webber (R) A member of the New Jersey State Assembly, Webber defeated a crowded field to secure his primary victory. A lawyer by trade, Webber served as Chairman of the New Jersey Republican Party from 2009 until He ran as a staunch conservative, as well as gun rights and pro-life issues.

9 Mikie Sherrill (D) Sherrill was the chosen candidate for much of the Democratic establishment, who view her as the best candidate to win the district in November. She also garnered former Vice President Joe Boden's endorsement. A former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, Sherrill has raised a significant amount of money that will continue to make her a formidable candidate. NEW MEXICO In a state that has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 6 of the last 7 cycles, New Mexico presents challenges for Republicans running statewide. However, current Gov. Susanna Martinez (R) was elected twice in the state, proving that it is not an impossibility. The Gubernatorial race seems the best opportunity, as the Senate race is not likely to be competitive. GUBERNATORIAL As current Gov. Susanna Martinez (R) is term-limited, there is a competitive race to replace her in November. Two current members of the House of Representatives will face off for this governorship that Cook Political Report rates as "Lean Democratic." Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) Lujan Grisham, who has served in the U.S. House of Representatives for three terms won 66.4% of the vote in her primary to defeat her two opponents. She ran on bringing more jobs to New Mexico, expanding early childhood education, and making it easier for undocumented immigrants to get drivers licenses. Steve Pearce (R) Pearce, a 7-term Congressman from the state's 2nd District, ran unopposed in his gubernatorial primary. Pearce has said that he will focus on winning centrist voters, though he will have to overcome his support of President Trump, who is unpopular in the state. Additionally, he voted to repeal Obamacare, an action not supported by the state's current governor.

10 SENATE Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) continued the Democratic success in this Senate seat, which has been held by the party for six terms, when he won in He is likely to win again in November, though he will face Mick Rich, a civil engineer and construction contractor, who ran unopposed in the Republican primary. NM-01 This Safe Democratic seat is open because its current representative, Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is running in the state's gubernatorial election. The winner of the Democratic primary is likely to go to Congress next year in this D+7 District. Debra Haaland (D) With her win last night, Haaland is likely to be the first Native American woman to serve in Congress. A member of the Pueblo of Laguna tribe, she served as the Chairwoman of the New Mexico Democratic Party. A lawyer by trade, Haaland ran on Medicare for all, abortion rights, and transitioning to 100% renewable energy sources. She has also called for the elimination of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. NM-02 This R+6 District would not normally be competitive. However, with current Rep. Steve Pearce's decision to run for his party's gubernatorial bid, it is vulnerable for a party flip. It is currently rated "Lean Republican." Yvette Herrell (R) State Representative Yvette Herrell was the victor in the fourway race for the Republican nomination. Herrell has served four terms in the New Mexico House of Representatives, where she is ranked by outside groups as the most conservative members. She sits on the Board of Directors for the American Legislative Exchange Council, and won the endorsement of the Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, Mark Meadows (NC), and the former Chairman of the Republican Study Committee, Jim Jordan (OH).

11 Xochitl Torres Small (D) Torres Small, with the endorsement of the New Mexico Democratic Party and Emily's List, was able to win the primary with 72.6% of the vote. A water rights attorney, she also served as a staffer for U.S. Sen. Tom Udall (D). SOUTH DAKOTA As one of the states with only one member of the House of Representatives, South Dakota will have several important statewide races this November. In a state that Donald Trump won by almost thirty points, Republicans are likely to keep all statewide offices. GUBERNATORIAL With current Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) term-limited, the Republican primary for governor was essentially the race to become the state's next executive. Kristi Noem (R) Similar to Alabama, South Dakota's deep red electorate means that the Republican primary for governor is likely the most competitive statewide race. Incumbent Congresswoman Kristi Noem of the state's lone House district defeated the state's attorney general, Marty Jackley by a margin. SD-AT LARGE Being the only House district in the state, South Dakota's At-Large congressional district will have the same statewide electorate. The state is R+14 and is considered "Safe Republican." Dusty Johnson (R) In a three-person race, it was Dusty Johnson who emerged with 46% of the vote from South Dakota Republicans. Johnson is a businessman and former public utilities commissioner who also previously served as Chief-of-Staff for Governor Dennis Daugaard. During the primary campaign, Johnson highlighted his opposition to firearm regulations and indicated he would urge Congress to respond to the state's drought.

12 Timothy Bjorkman (D) Timothy Bjorkman ran uncontested to represent the Democratic ticket for South Dakota's At-Large seat. Bjorkman was former judge for the First Judicial Circuit in South Dakota but retired in Bjorkman will face Republican Dusty Johnson in an extreme uphill battle in November. Prepared by Owen Taylor, Sam Lane and Casie Daugherty Prime Policy Group