PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: CONNECTICUT, MINNESOTA, VERMONT, WISCONSIN CONNECTICUT GUBERNATORIAL

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1 PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: CONNECTICUT, MINNESOTA, VERMONT, WISCONSIN P RIME-A RY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthy results from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likely to be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in 2019 because of retirements. We continue to watch the vote in Ohio's 12th District from last week, and as soon as there is a final determination, we will send out a Perspective on it. However, as an update to our edition last week, Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer conceded last night, so Kris Kobach will be the Republican nominee in November. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions! CONNECTICUT Connecticut has become a reliably blue state at all levels in recent years. However, a deeply unpopular Governor could give Republicans a pick-up opportunity, though today's endorsement of their candidate by President Trump is likely to make things harder, not easier as the President's popularity is significantly underwater (by some 16 points) in the state. There is one open House race, as well as a Senate race, that Democrats are significantly favored to win. GUBERNATORIAL Two-term Democratic Gov. Daniel Malloy chose not to pursue reelection. Connecticut is in bad financial shape with the current budget deficit being large enough to trigger a law requiring the Governor to take cost cutting measures. Malloy has dismal approval ratings and the Republicans view this as an opportunity to win a Democratic-held governorship. Connecticut is typically a Democratic state with a Cook P VI score of D+6, but the Cook Political Report views this seat as a toss-up. Ned Lamont (D) Ned Lamont easily defeated Bridgeport mayor and ex-convict Joe

2 Ganim winning the Democratic nomination with 81% of the vote. In 2006 Lamont defeated then-veteran U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary, but later lost in the general election when Lieberman ran as an independent. Lamont promises to stand up to Donald Trump, more funding for education, and advocates for a $15 an hour minimum wage. Bob Stefanowski (R) Stefanowski defeated a crowded a field of candidates winning the Republican nomination with 29% of the vote. Stfanowski is a former investment banker and ex-democrat. The political newcomer defeated the party's endorsed candidate Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, consultant and Navy veteran Steve Obsitnik, local GOP official Tim Herbst and hedge fund manager David Stemerman to win the nomination. Stefanowski has pledged to fix the state's fiscal woes and eliminate the personal income tax. SENATE Incumbent Sen. Chris Murphy ran unopposed will be seeking his second term in office. Murphy won this seat in 2012 with 55 percent of the vote, despite being outspent by a nearly 5-1 margin by former WWE CEO Linda McMahon. His bid for a second term should be even easier as he lacks serious opposition. Cook Political Report rates this seat as a Solid Democrat seat. Matthew Corey (R) Matthew Corey defeated Dominic Rapini winning 76.5% of the vote. Corey was the party's endorsed candidate and is a Navy veteran who has lost twice against Rep. John Larson in congressional races. Corey supports President Trump's policies and believes that Sen. Chris Murphy is taking the state in the wrong direction. Corey faces an uphill battle to defeat Murphy. CT-05 Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced in April that she would not be seeking a fourth term in office after receiving criticism for allegedly mishandling sexual harassment accusations against one of her staffers. Cook Political Report rates this district as a Solid Democratic seat and the district has a PVI score of D+2. Jahana Hayes (D) Jahana Hayes defeated Mary Glassman winning with 62.2% of the vote. Hayes was a 2016 national teacher of the year and would be the state's first black Democrat to serve in Congress. Hayes ran on a progressive platform and will be a strong favorite to win in November.

3 Manny Santos (R) Manny Santos defeated former college professor Ruby Corby O'Neill and business executive Rich DuPont winning with 51.7% of the vote. Santos is the former mayor of Meriden and won the party's endorsement. Santos faces a tough race in November. MINNESOTA President Trump came strikingly close to winning the state in 2016, which was perhaps more of a surprise than his success in other states in the Midwest. Strikingly, there almost every federal and statewide race is expected to be competitive this year (with perhaps the exception of Sen. Amy Klobuchar's). There will also be two Senate seats on the Minnesota ballot in November after the resignation of Sen. Al Franken for sexual harrassment allegations triggered a special election. Also, as a note, candidates in this state labeled as "DF L" should be looked at as Democrats, as the state's Democratic-Farm-Labor Party is affiliated with the national Democratic Party but maintains its own designation. GUBERNATORIAL Governor Mark Dayton (D) decided not to run for a third term in the governor's mansion; a state where there is no limit to the number of terms for which a governor can serve. This opened up the door to competitive primaries on both Republican and Democratic sides. Tim Walz (D) With 41% percent of the vote, Democrat Tim Walz triumphed over the close progressive rivals Erin Murphy and Lori Swanson for the Democratic nomination for governor. Walz, a former high school teacher, has been a popular, slightly left-of-center representative since His district was a Trump stronghold in the 2016 election, yet reelected Walz for a sixth term. Walz' bid to keep the governor's mansion under Democratic control will be competitive in a race that Cook considers a Toss-Up. Jeff Johnson (R) Many national Republicans expected to see former Governor Tim Pawlenty reignite his political career in yesterday's Republican primary for governor. Yet despite the name recognition and the campaign cash advantage, Minnesota Republicans went with Jeff Johnson by just 9% over the former governor and presidential candidate. Johnson, a Detroit Lakes, MN native and Georgetown Law graduate, is a former Hennepin County commissioner, small business owner, and former member of the Minnesota House of Representatives from

4 SENATE Incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar, who was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, overwhelmingly won over her Democratic primary opponents with 95% of the vote. She is regularly polled as one of the most popular politicians in the country. This race is rated as "Solid Democratic." Jim Newberger (R) Republican Jim Newberger won his primary by nearly 70% to challenge the popular incumbent, Amy Klobuchar. Newberger has served in the Minnesota House of Representatives since Because both Minnesota senators were on the ballot this primary cycle, Republican candidates wishing to flip a Minnesota senate seat had to declare which Democratic opponent they'd be challenging. Given the popularity and incumbency of Amy Klobuchar, Newberger's bid to flip this seat will be a much tougher endeavor in November. SENATE When Senator Al Franken (D) resigned over accusations of sexual misconduct in January, Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton appointed his lieutenant governor, Tina Smith to replace Franken. This U.S. Senate special election is taking place to determine who will serve for the remainder of Franken's term in office, which expires on January 3, With five other Democrats running against Smith in the special election primary, including former Republican and Bush administration official Richard Painter, Smith easily won the primary with a 76% percent majority. Smith is the endorsed candidate of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and has deep war chest of nearly $2 million. Polling suggests that she is the favorite to face Republican Karin Housley in the November general election. Karin Housley (R) Taking 62% of the vote yesterday evening, Republican Karin Housley won Minnesota's Republican primary for the U.S. Senate special election race. Housley runs a real estate business and has also served in the Minnesota State Senate since She previously ran unsuccessfully in the Republican primary for lieutenant governor in It will be a tough race for Housley in November, as Cook rates this seat as Likely Democratic. MN-01 In most congressional districts rated by Cook as Toss-ups in 2018, the majority of those are favorable for Democrats to flip. Minnesota, however, has several blue seats that serve as outliers. The state's geographically large and rural congressional seats are largely held by Democrats, despite

5 their conservative leanings. MN-01 voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 15%, yet reelected Democrat Tim Walz by a narrow 0.8%. With Walz' decision to run for governor and not seek reelection, MN-01 becomes one of the best pick-up opportunities for Republicans in November. Dan Feehan (DFL) Taking a commanding 83% of the vote, Democrat Dan Feehan won Tuesday night's two-way Democratic primary for MN-01. Feehan was viewed as the establishment choice, running as a moderate and gaining support from the state and national party. He's an Iraq War veteran who also served in the Pentagon under the Obama Administration as an acting Assistant Secretary of Defense. Despite the district's conservative lean, Democratic turnout was overall higher by around 5,000 votes. Feehan will need to preserve this enthusiasm in order to keep this seat under Democratic control. The district is largely rural and agriculture-focused, but includes the rapidly-growing urban area of Rochester. It extends across the southern region of the state from the border of South Dakota to the border of Wisconsin. Jim Hagedorn (R) Republican Jim Hagedorn won Tuesday's four-way primary with 60% of the vote. Hagedorn is the son of former Congressman Thomas Hagedorn, and has an extensive career working under the Bush 41 and Bush 43 administrations. This will be Hagedorn's second attempt at flipping MN-01, previously losing by just under a single percent to Tim Walz in With MN-01 being an open seat and having a Cook P VI Score of R+5, Republicans have a ripe opportunity to regain representation of MN-01 for the first time since MN-02 Incumbent Jason Lewis went unopposed in yesterday evening's primary. He will rematch Democrat Angie Craig in a race that will likely be even more competitive than their first matchup in 2016, where he edged her by just over 2%. Since his last race in 2016, comments resurfaced from his tenure as a conservative radio commentator, in which Lewis made controversial remarks about women. The district encompasses the southern portion of the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan areas, including all of Scott, Dakota, Goodhue, and Wabasha counties. Angie Craig (DFL) Democrat Angie Craig also went unopposed in yesterday's Democratic primary for MN-02. Craig has been involved in health policy, public affairs, and corporate communications in her role at St. Jude Medical in St. Paul. Since 2011, she has also led a Global Human Resources group, aiming to bring more women into management opportunities. Craig will attempt to flip this seat for a second time, in a district considered well within range for Democrats, and rated by Cook as a Toss Up. Donald Trump won this district by the same tight margin as did Lewis in 2016, by just 2%.

6 MN-03 Incumbent Erik Paulsen went unopposed in yesterday's Republican primary for MN-03. Paulsen is a five-term Republican Congress who serves on the powerful Ways and Means Committee. On paper, given President Trump's unpopularity in the district, Paulsen would appear to be the most vulnerable congressional Republican in Minnesota, as Hillary Clinton took the district by 10 points. Yet, in the very same election in 2016, Paulsen secured a 13-point majority. This district encompasses the largely wealthy Minneapolis suburbs, stretching down from Oak Park to Bloomington. Dean Phillips (DFL) In what's considered the best pick-up opportunity for Democrats in Minnesota, Democrat Dean Phillips won 81% of the Democratic primary vote in his two-way race. Phillips is an entrepreneur who started "Penny's Coffee" in 2015; a vehicle through which he's been able to serve the community. He's branded himself as fiscally responsible and socially inclusive, providing the district with an "independent" voice. Cook rate's this district as one of their Toss-Up seats, and will be almost certainly a competitive election in November. MN-05 With Rep. Keith Ellison decision to run for attorney general this seat was left open. This seat is considered a Solid Democrat seat and has a Cook PVI score of D +26. Ilhan Omar (DFL) Ilhan Omar won the Democratic nomination winning with 48.2% over five other candidates including former state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and former state Sen. Patrica Torres. Omar ran a progressive campaign centered around Medicare-for-all, a $15 minimum, and tuition-free college. This seat is the most Democratic district in the state meaning Omar will be the favorite to win this seat. Should Omar win she will become the first Somali American and will join Rashida Tlaib (MI-13) as the first Muslim women to serve in Congress. MN-07 Minnesota's 7th Congressional District covers almost the entire western side of the state, and includes 36 mostly rural counties and the cities of Willmar, Alexandria, Gergus Falls, and Moorhead. This is not a very diverse district, demographically speaking, as the population is 92% white, 1% black, 1% Asian, and 2.9% Native American. Incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson ran unopposed, and will be defending his seat and vying for his 15th term in Congress. Peterson, a conservative Democrat, won his last

7 reelection campaign with 52.5% of the vote, and the race is rated "Lean Democrat" by the Cooke Political Report. Dave Hughes (R) Dave Hughes won 72.6% of the vote, beating Matt Prosch to win the Republican primary. Hughes, a 21-year Air Force veteran, currently works for General Atomics as an Drone Instructor Pilot, flying missions guarding the northern and southern U.S. borders and training US Customs and Border Patrol aircrews. He is running on a platform that emphasizes strong border security, is pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, and focuses heavily on increased benefits for U.S. veterans. MN-08 Minnesota's 8th Congressional District covers most of the northeastern portion of the state, and has an economy that is heavily focused on agricultural and mining. Current Rep. Rick Nolan will not be running for reelection, making this district competitive after Donald Trump won it handily in This district is 92% White, 1% Black, 1% Asian, 1.69% Hispanic, and 2.85% Native American. Joe Radinovich (DFL) Democrat Joe Radinovich beat out four opponents to win 44.2% of the vote in the Democratic primary. Radinovich, who is just 32 years old, is running on a platform that focuses on publicly funded job training, universal healthcare, electoral reform, and heavy infrastructure spending. Pete Stauber (R) Pete Stauber won nearly 90% of vote Tuesday night, beating Harry Welty who received just over 10% of the vote, respectfully. Stauber, who was endorsed by President Trump and formerly played for the Detroit Red Wings, has worked as a Police Officer in his post-hockey career - surviving several life-threatening events during his service. He is running on a traditional Republican platform, and has been vocally supportive of President Trump as a candidate. VERMONT Vermont is a state home to a host on contradictions. Home to one of the most liberal populations in the country, it is likely to reelect a Republican governor and have one of its Senators shirk the label of the party whose primary he just won in favor of running as an independent. None of these races are likely to be competitive in November.

8 GUBERNATORIAL Incumbent Phil Scott will defend his seat after beating challenger Keith Stern 67.5% to 32.5%, respectfully. Scott, formerly an entrepreneur and recreational race car driver, won his 2016 election with 52% of the vote, and will be the favorite to win this race. He is running on a platform that includes eliminating burdensome regulations, working across the aisle to find bipartisan solutions, lowering taxes, and providing the state of Vermont with "practical leadership." Christine Hallquist (D) Democrat Christine Hallquist won 48.3% of the vote, beating three other candidates decisively. A successful executive and former CEO, Hallquist is running on a platform that includes increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour, passing paid family, fighting back threats to privatize Vermont's public education system, creating medical leave insurance, and laying the groundwork for a universal healthcare system. Cooke Political Report rates this race as "Solid R", so Hallquist will have a lot of work to do if she wants to win in November. Additionally, Hallquist will be the first transgender candidate for Governor in Vermont's history. SENATE Unsurprisingly, incumbent Bernie Sanders won 94.4% of the Democratic primary vote while running as an Independent candidate. This should shock nobody, as Sanders has the highest approval rating of any U.S. Senator with upwards of 72% of his constituents approving of his work at any given time. While it's technically possible - at least, in theory - that Sanders could lose his reelection bid in November, one should expect him to win his third term by a very comfortable margin. Republican Brooke Paige won 39.6% of the primary vote, beating out three other candidates to win the Republican nominate for Senate. While Paige's appearance is this race is of little interest - barring a major upset, he will serve as a sacrificial lamb to Bernie Sanders - what is interesting, however, is how many other offices Paige is running for in November. On Tuesday night, Paige won the primaries to become the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, State Auditor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and U.S. House of Representatives. While he did lose the nomination for State Treasurer, Paige should be proud of himself - he will be the official nominee in five different races this November! WISCONSIN Wisconsin was one of the midwestern states that President Trump won rather surprisingly in Both its statewide and federal elections this year provide for some of the most competitive in the country. There were primary battles for gubernatorial, Senate, and two competitive House races yesterday - including one seat that is open after the retirement of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. GUBERNATORIAL

9 Gov. Scott Walker (R) is running for his third term as governor, though in his 4th race in the last eight years after some voters attempted to recall him in However, recent polls have showed him in some trouble, even trailing one of his potential Democratic by as many as 13 points. to shakeout. The race is currently rated as "Lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report, though that may change as the result of the primary continues Tony Evers (D) Wisconsin state Superintendent Tony Evers bested all of his primary opponents, winning 41.7%, and securing the Democratic Party's nomination for November's election. Evers, who has been elected statewide multiple times, likely benefited from name recognition in the primary. He was considered the Party's best chance to win in November. Evers has clashed with Gov. Walker on a host of education issues, from funding to teachers' unions. SENATE Wisconsin is one of the eleven seats Democrats are defending in states that president Trump won in Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking to win a second term after being elected in 2012 with 51.4% of the vote - defeating former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin is polling significantly better than some of the other Red State Democrats, and this race is rated as "Likely Democratic." Leah Vukmir (R) Vukmir won the nomination with 49% of the vote, besting wellfunded candidate Kevin Nicholson, and several other Republicans. Vukmir was considered to be the "establishment" candidate in the race and received the endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. She tied herself closely to Gov. Walker but ran into trouble in the race when a tape of her saying that President Trump was "offensive to everyone" came to light. WI-01 The election in the 1st District was thrown into chaos in April when Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced that he would be retiring at the end of his term. Ryan, who has served in Congress for twenty years was the prohibitive favorite to win in November. Now, however, the race in this R+5 district is much more competitive. The 1st district encompasses the counties of southeastern Wisconsin. Trump won this district by 10 points two years ago. However, it is currently rated as "Lean Republican." Interestingly, more votes were cast in the Democratic primary than in the Republican one. Bryan Steil (R)

10 Steil, who currently sits on the University of Wisconsin Board of Regents, was chosen out of a crowded field of Republicans to represent them in November. Steil has emphasized education and workforce issues, as well as his "outsider" credentials. He was endorsed by former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson and Speaker Ryan. Randy Bryce (D) Bryce, an Ironworker who has been dubbed "Iron Stache" for obvious reasons, beat Janesville School Board member Cathy Myers to win the Democratic primary. He stampeded into national notoriety with a viral campaign video and had a considerable fundraising advantage. Bryce, an Army veteran, has run a left-populist campaign, running on issues like Medicare for All, green jobs, and economic opportunities for working families. He was named to the DCCC's "Red to Blue Program." WI-06 The 6th district is competitive this year, at least partially because it is made up on the suburbs of Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay, as suburbs have trended toward Democrats in the recent special elections. Trump won handily here in 2016 (by 17 points), though the district has a PVI of R+8. Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) is running for his third term. Dan Kohl (D) Kohl ran unopposed in Tuesday's primary. Kohl previously served as the Player Personnel Director for the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks and most recently served as the Vice President of Political Affairs for J Street. He was also a Senior Advisor for the government practice group at BakerHostetler. Kohl has emphasized putting country ahead of party and growing the economy to make it work for all people in Wisconsin. He was named to the DCCC's "Red to Blue Program." Prepared by Casie Daugherty, Owen Taylor, Sam Lane, and Kevin Klikenberg Prime Policy Group