Key Takeaways TRUMP SENATE

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2 TRUMP Trump s approval remains relatively unchanged Trump s approval rating has dropped one point to 43% - potentially driven by a shift with independent voters. Despite slight improvements to his favorability in Nevada, North Dakota, and Ohio, more voters continue to disapprove of his performance. Key Takeaways SENATE Most incumbents appear well-positioned for re-election Senators largely continue to receive positive approval rating among their constituents, though Nelson joins McCaskill and Heller in receiving negative marks. The margin of approval has tightened for Donnelly and Manchin. Resentment towards incumbents remain high as voters across key Senate races, and even safe districts say that it s time to give someone else a chance. HOUSE Democrats maintain a lead on the generic ballot Democrats have a +5 lead on the generic ballot (4% Democrat vs. 36% ) The generic ballot in toss-up districts remains unchanged with, the generic candidate leading 4% to 3. In these toss-up districts, a majority of voters disapprove of the President s performance with 42% strongly disapproving. 2

3 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

4 Trump Approval by Party All Voters Change since 43% 52% Approve Disapprove previous month - 0 Trump Approval Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Democrats 8% 2% 7 % Approve 86% Disapprove Independents 23% 9% 6% 38% 37% Approve 5 Disapprove 4 s 49% 3 8% 6% 8 Approve Disapprove

5 Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. - (0) (+3) Trump Approval 0 (-2) (-) (+) (-2) (+2) (-) (0) (+2) (+2) (-) Clinton won state in 206 presidential election Trump won state in 206 presidential election Change since previous month

6 Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Trump Approval 53% 4 42% 37% 30% % Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove 2% 3% 3% 3% 20% 2% 23% 6% 7% 20% 23% 26% 29% Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Approve Strongly Approve 6 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

7 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

8 Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans Generic Congressional Ballot All Voters Change since 4% Candidate 36% Candidate previous month 0 0 Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion Candidate Democrats 90% 8% Independents 27% 52% 2% 8 s 0% 87%

9 Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate 37% (+2) 40% (0) 37% (-) 37% (-) Generic Congressional Ballot 38% (+) 40% (+) 36% (+) 4% (0) 39% (0) 36% (0) 42% (+) 36% (0) 36% (0) 4% (+) 33% (0) 4 (+) 39% (0) 37% (+2) 30% (-) 43% (+) 39% (0) 39% (+) 4 (0) 33% (0) 9 Democrat holds Senate seat opening in 208 holds Senate seat opening in 208 Change since previous month

10 Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Generic Congressional Ballot 23% 2% 56% 30% 2 46% 3 40% 2 23% 4% 37% 46% 23% 3% Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion Candidate 0 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

11 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

12 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Bill Nelson (D-FL) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Jon Tester (D-MT) 39% (-) 4% (+2) 26% (0) 5 (+) 39% (-) 38% (+2) 30% (0) 4 (+) 37% (-) 48% (+2) 30% (-) 5 (+) 52% (+) 37% (+2) 46% (+2) 4% (+) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) 47% (-) 43% (+) 40% (+) 4 (-) 2 Change since previous month

13 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Dean Heller (R-NV) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Bob Casey (D-PA) Ted Cruz (R-TX) 37% (-) 4 (+2) 29% (+2) 5% (-) 4 (0) 29% (0) 33% (+) 40% (-) 43% (0) 3% (0) 32% (-) 42% (-) 49% (+) 3 (0) 39% (+) 42% (-) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) 47% (0) 36% (0) 4% (0) 42% (0) 3 Joe Manchin (D-WV) 4 (-) 43% (+2) 3 (-) 49% (+) Change since previous month

14 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Representative] is doing? 43% 42% 30% 3% 39% 38% % 3% Approve Disapprove Do you think [Representative] deserves reelection? 40% 4% 32% 3% % 27% 30% 42% Deserves re-election Time for a new person 4 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

15 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

16 Top Policy Among All Voters All Americans Democrats Independents s 26% 23% 28% 3 Top Policy 's 2% 6% 's 2% 20% 7% 6% 's 28% 6% % 's 2% 7% 8% 8% 's 8% 7% 3% 's 's 2% 's 2% 6

17 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States Arizona Florida Indiana % 23% 22% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6% 6% Top Policy 3% Missouri Montana Nevada 28% 29% 2 9% 8% 2% 9% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 9% 6% 6% 7

18 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania 2 26% 28% 22% 20% 20% 20% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% Top Policy 3% West Virginia Wisconsin % 9% 20% 8% 6% 8% 7% 8 3%

19 Top Policy by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Top Policy 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 8% 9% 20% 2% 23% s 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% s 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 3% 6% 6% 9 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

20 Business Development For More Information Press Inquiries Methodology 20 The results are compiled from surveys with more than 36,630 registered voters across the U.S. from July, 208 to September 25, 208. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.

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