Sample: Charlie Cook s Midterm Toolbox

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1 Sample: Charlie Cook s Midterm Toolbox A look at the political environment for the 018 House and Senate elections by the Cook Political Report Updated May 17, 018 Producer National Journal Presentation Center To receive a custom election dashboard, njmembership@nationaljournal.com. 1

2 018 COOK SENATE RANKINGS Control of the Senate will depend on the eight toss up seats Breakdown of 018 Senate races THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican Feinstein (CA) Murphy (CT) Carper (DE) Hirono (HI) Warren (MA) Cardin (MD) King (ME)(I) Klobuchar (MN) Heinrich (NM) Gillibrand (NY) Whitehouse (RI) Kaine (VA) Sanders (VT)(I) Cantwell (WA) Stabenow (MI) Tester (MT) Menendez (NJ) Casey (PA) Baldwin (WI) Smith (MN) Brown (OH) Nelson (FL) Donnelly (IN) McCaskill (MO) Heitkamp (ND) Manchin (WV) Flake (AZ)* Heller (NV) Corker (TN)* 0 Hyde-Smith (MS) Fischer (NE) Cruz (TX) Wicker (MS) Hatch (UT)* Barrasso (WY) * Announced retirement Source: The Cook Political Report, April 5, 018. May 17, 018 Madelaine Pisani

3 018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS 6 seats up for election in 018 are held by Democrats and Independents out of a total of 34 States with U.S. Senate seats up for election Republican held seat Democrat held seat Independent held seat WA OR MT ND MN ME ID WY SD WI MI NY AK CA NV AZ UT CO NM NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA IL MS PA OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC AL GA FL VT MA RI CT NJ DE MD HI DC Sources: Charlie Cook, Will History Hold in 018 Midterms? The Cook Political Report, January 9, 017, National Journal Research, 017. May 17, 018 Madelaine Pisani 3

4 018 COOK SENATE RANKINGS Democrats, Republicans will take turns playing defense in upcoming elections Senate seats in play, by election year Republican seats Democrat seats Source: The Cook Political Report, 017. April 9, 018 Madelaine Pisani 4

5 CONGRESSIONAL RETIREMENT TRACKER: SENATE Retirements from the Senate open seats to costly primaries and potentially contentious general elections Senators retiring and not seeking reelection in 018 Bob Corker (R-TN) Senator Corker has been an outspoken critic of President Trump Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) announced her candidacy Former Democratic TN governor Phil Bredesen ( ) also announced his candidacy Thad Cochran (R-MS) Cochran, 80, chairs the Appropriations Committee and has been absent from the Senate for long stretches over the past year His resignation means both of Mississippi's Senate seats will be on the ballot come November Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Senator Hatch announced his retirement after initially deciding to run Former MA governor and presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced he was running for the open seat in mid- February 8 5 Jeff Flake (R-AZ) Senator Flake decided not to run in light of low polling numbers and a strong challenge by State Rep. Kelli Ward Competitive Republican primary between Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ0), Kelli Ward and former sheriff Joe Arpaio Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ09) is considered the Democratic frontrunner Retired in 014 Retired in 016 Sources: National Journal Research 017. April 5, 018 Daniel Stublen, Madelaine Pisani 5

6 018 COOK SENATE RANKINGS 018 Senate races by 016 presidential performance Senate seats in play, by election year Clinton + 15 or greater Clinton +5 to Clinton +4.9 to Trump +4.9 Trump +5 to Trump +15 or greater DEMOCRATS (6) Feinstein (CA) +16. Hirono (HI) +3. Cardin (MD) +5. Warren (MA) +7.3 Gillibrand (NY) +1.3 Whitehouse (RI) Sanders (VT)(I) +8.5 Cantwell (WA) +16. Murphy (CT) Carper (DE) Menendez (NJ) +13. Heinrich (NM) +8.3 King (ME)(I) D +.7 Klobuchar (MN) D +1.5 Smith (MN) D +1.5 Kaine (VA) D +4.9 Stabenow (MI) R +0.3 Nelson (FL) R +1.3 Baldwin (WI) R +1 Casey (PA) R +1. Brown (OH) +8.6 Donnelly (IN) McCaskill (MO) Tester (MT) +0.5 Heitkamp (ND) Manchin (WV) +4. REPUBLICANS (9) Heller (NV) +.4 Flake (AZ) +4.1 Cruz (TX) +9. Fischer (NE) +6.3 Corker (TN) +6. Hatch (UT) Wicker (MS) Hyde-Smith (MS) Barrasso (WY) Source: 016 Senate election results, Politico, December 13, 016. April 9, 018 Madelaine Pisani 6

7 018 COOK SENATE RANKINGS 00 Senate races by 016 presidential performance Senate seats in play, by election year Clinton + 15 or greater Clinton +5 to Clinton +4.9 to Trump +4.9 Trump +5 to Trump +15 or greater DEMOCRATS (11) Coons (DE) Durbin (IL) +16 Markey (MA) +7.3 Booker (NJ) +13. Reed (RI) Franken (MN) +8.3 Shaheen (NH) +6 T. Udall (NM) +0.4 Merkley (OR) Warner (VA) D+4.9 Peters (MI) R+0.3 REPUBLICANS (1) Gardner (CO) D+.8 Collins (ME) D+.7 Tillis (NC) R+3.8 Perdue (GA) +5.7 Ernst (IA) +9.6 Graham (SC) Cornyn (TX) +9. Sullivan (AK) +7.4 Cotton (AR) +6.6 Risch (ID) Roberts (KS) +1 McConnell (KY) +5.3 Hyde-Smith (MS) Daines (MT) +0.5 Cassidy (LA) Sasse (NE) +6.1 Inhofe (OK) Rounds (SD) +9.8 Alexander (TN) +6. Capito (WV) +4. Enzi (WY) Source: 016 Senate election results, Politico, December 13, 016. April 9, 018 Madelaine Pisani 7

8 018 MIDTERM SENATE ELECTION Of the 6 Democratic senators up for re-election, Trump won 10 of their states and five by double digits Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party s 016 presidential candidate PERCENTS INSIDE THE STATE REPRESENT BY HOW MUCH THE OTHER PARTY S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WON IN 016 Clinton victory Trump victory Democratic senator up for re-election Republican senator up for re-election Dean Heller (R) won in 01 by 1.% Jon Tester (D) won in 01 by 4% CA AK OR WA NV.4% ID AZ UT HI Heidi Heitkamp (D) won in 01 by 0.9% MT 0% WY CO NM ND 36% SD NE TX KS OK Tammy Baldwin (D) won in 01 by 5.6% MN IA MO 19% AR LA WI 0.7% IL MS MI 0.3% IN 19% TN AL KY OH 8.1% GA Debbie Stabenow (D) won in 01 by 1% WV 4% SC PA 0.7% VA NC FL 1.% NY Joe Donnelly (D) won ME in 01 by 5.7% Claire McCaskill (D) won in 01 by 16% Sherrod Brown (D) won in 01 by 6.0% Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won in 01 by 9.1% Joe Manchin (D) won in 01 by 14% Bill Nelson (D) won in 01 by 13% Sources: National Journal Research, 017. October 1, 017 Daniel Stublen 8

9 HOUSE 018 RACES House Republicans are defending many more vulnerable seats Cook Political Report ratings COMPETITIVE 018 HOUSE RACES Democrat held seats Republican held seats Likely Democrat Lean Democrat AZ-9 Sinema* AZ-1 O Halleran CA-7 Bera NH-1 Shea-Porter* CT-5 Esty* NV-3 Rosen* FL-7 Murphy AZ- McSally* MN-7 Peterson CA-39 Royce* NH- Kuster CA-49 Issa* NJ-5 Gottheimer FL-7 Ros-Lehtinen* NV-4 Kihuen* NJ- LoBiondo* PA-8 Cartwright PA-7 Dent* WI-3 Kind PA-5 Meehan* PA-6 Costello* *Incumbent not seeking reelection Source: Cook Political Report. May Daniel Stublen Toss Up MN-1 Walz* MN-8 Nolan* CA-10 Denham CA-5 Knight CA-48 Rohrabacher CO-6 Coffman FL-6 Curbelo IA-1 Blum IL-6 Roskam IL-1 Bost MI-11 Trott* MN- Lewis MN-3 Paulsen NE- Bacon NJ-7 Lance NJ-11 Frelinghuysen* NY-19 Faso NY- Tenney OH-1 VACANT (Tiberi) PA-1 Fitzpatrick PA-17 Rothfus/Lamb TX-7 Culberson VA-10 Comstock WA-8 Reichert* Lean Republican AR- CA-1 CA-45 FL-18 GA-6 IA-3 IL-14 KS- KS-3 KY-6 ME- MI-8 NC-13 NJ-3 NM- NY-11 OH-1 OH-1 TX-3 TX-3 UT-4 VA- VA-5 VA-7 WA-5 WI-1 Likely Republican Hill PA-14 OPEN (Lamb) NC-9 Pittenger Valadao AZ-6 Schweikert NY-1 Zeldin Walters CA-4 McClintock NY-4 Katko Mast CA-50 Hunter OH-10 Turner Handel FL-15 Ross* OH-14 Joyce Young FL-16 Buchanan OH-15 Stivers Hultgren Jenkins* GA-7 Woodall PA-10 Perry Yoder IL-13 Davis PA-16 Kelly Barr IN- Walorski SC-1 Sanford Poliquin MI-1 Bergman SC-5 Norman Bishop MI-6 Upton TX-1 Smith* Budd MI-7 Walberg WA-3 Beutler MacArthur MO- Wagner WI-6 Grothman Pearce* MT-AL Gianforte WI-7 Duffy Donovan NC- Holding WV-3 Jenkins* Chabot VACANT NC-8 Hudson Hurd Sessions Love Taylor Garrett Brat McMorris Rodgers Ryan* 9

10 HOUSE 018 RACES How big of a swing? Control of the House will depend on whether Democrats can win most toss-up races Cook Political Report ratings ALL 018 HOUSE RACES Republican held seats (40) Democrat held seats (195) Solid Republican 154 Likely Republican 30 1 Lean Republican 6 Toss-Up Lean Democrat 6 3 Likely Democrat 10 Solid Democrat 179 Source: Cook Political Report. May 17, 018 Daniel Stublen 10

11 Custom Midterm Election Materials Our Presentation Center analysts can create custom slides on the races you re tracking and provide analysis of how the election might impact your policy agenda. the National Journal team for more information on custom midterm presentation support.

Senate 2018 races. Cook Political Report ratings. Updated October 4, Producer Presentation Center

Senate 2018 races. Cook Political Report ratings. Updated October 4, Producer Presentation Center Senate 2018 races Cook Political Report ratings Updated October 4, 2018 Producer Presentation Center 1 Control of the Senate will depend on the nine Toss Up seats Cook Political Report ratings ALL 2018