Key Takeaways TRUMP SENATE

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2 TRUMP Trump s Approval Improved Moderately with Independents in Key States Trump s approval rating continues to hold steady 4 approve of the President s performance while 52% disapprove. Trump remains underwater in Nevada, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Though, his approval has improved marginally with independents in Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Key Takeaways SENATE Key Reelection Contests Shift Slightly in Favor of Incumbents Most Senators in key states have a positive approval rating among their constituents, though voters are still more likely to say it s time for a new person. McCaskill, Heller, and Manchin continue to face the toughest reelection battles. Conditions have worsened slightly for Nelson, while Baldwin and Heitkamp have seen a bump in favorability over the last month. HOUSE Democrats Maintain a Lead on the Generic Ballot In toss-up districts, the generic candidate slightly edges out the candidate, 4% to 3. Voters in these districts also disapprove of the President s performance 5 disapprove and 42% approve. 2 Trump s approval has improved in safe districts with 5 of voters approving and 4% disapproving. Trump is slightly underwater in districts that lean 47% of voters in these districts approve and 48% disapprove

3 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

4 Trump Approval by Party All Voters Change since 4 52% Approve Disapprove previous month + 0 Trump Approval Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Democrats 8% 3% 72% 2% Approve 8 Disapprove Independents 2 9% 37% 38% Approve 53% Disapprove 4 s 49% 36% 8% 6% 8 Approve Disapprove

5 Trump Net Approval in Competitive Senate States State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. State All () Dem. Ind. Rep. (-0) (+2) Trump Approval 3 (+) (+) (+2) (-) (+2) (+) (-2) (+) (-) Clinton won state in 206 presidential election Trump won state in 206 presidential election Change since previous month

6 Trump Approval by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Trump Approval 36% 4 4% 5% 2% 3% 3% 2 22% 20% 7% 20% 2 29% % 26% 29% Strongly Disapprove Somewhat Disapprove Don t Know / No Opinion Somewhat Approve Strongly Approve 6 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

7 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

8 Generic Congressional Ballot Among All Americans Generic Congressional Ballot All Voters Change since 4% Candidate 3 Candidate previous month + 0 Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion Candidate Democrats 89% 9% Independents 26% 5 2% 8 s 0% 87%

9 Generic Congressional Ballot in Competitive Senate States State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate State Dem. Candidate Rep. Candidate 3 (+) 39% (-) 3 (+3) 39% (-) Generic Congressional Ballot 37% (0) 38% (0) 36% (+) 4% (+) 39% (0) 3 (0) 4% (+) 36% (-) 3 (0) 39% (+) 3% (0) 4% (0) 37% (+) 37% (-2) 43% (+) 33% (0) 38% (0) 39% (+) 9 Democrat holds Senate seat opening in 208 holds Senate seat opening in 208 Change since previous month

10 Generic Congressional Ballot by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Generic Congressional Ballot 23% 22% 29% % Candidate Don t Know / No Opinion 5 46% 4% 36% 30% Candidate 0 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

11 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

12 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Bill Nelson (D-FL) Joe Donnelly (D-IN) Claire McCaskill (D-MO) Jon Tester (D-MT) 42% (-2) 37% (+3) 27% (-) 52% (+2) 4% (0) 3 (+) 30% (-) 4 (+) 39% (-) 4 (0) 3% (+) 52% (+) 50% (0) 36% (0) 42% (+2) 4 (0) Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) 47% (+3) 42% (-2) 39% (+4) 46% (-4) 2 Change since previous month

13 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, in Competitive Senate States Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Senator] is doing? Do you think [Senator] deserves reelection? Senator Approve Disapprove Deserves Reelection Time for New Person Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Dean Heller (R-NV) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) Bob Casey (D-PA) Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) 36% (-) 42% (+2) 26% (+2) 53% (0) 4 (+) 29% (0) 32% (-) 4% (0) 43% (+) 32% (0) 32% (+) 4 (0) 47% (+3) 37% (-2) 4% (+2) 43% (+) Joe Manchin (D-WV) 46% (+) 42% (-) 37% (+) 48% (-) 3 Change since previous month

14 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent, by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Approval and Reelection by Incumbent Do you approve or disapprove of the job [Representative] is doing? 43% 43% 30% 3% 39% 38% % 3% Approve Disapprove Do you think [Representative] deserves reelection? 40% 4% 32% 3% % 27% 26% 29% Deserves reelection Time for a new person 4 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

15 208 Midterms Trump Approval What voters think about POTUS 2 Generic Congressional Ballot What voters think about control of the House and Senate 3 Approval and Reelection by Incumbent What voters think about key officials 4 Top Policy What voters prioritize at the polls

16 Top Policy Among All Voters All Americans Democrats Independents s 26% 23% 28% 3 Top Policy 's 2% 7% 's 2% 20% 8% 's 28% 2% 's 2% 7% 8% 8% 's 7% 7% 3% 's 's 2% 's 2% 6

17 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States Arizona Florida Indiana % 23% 2 22% 8% 7% 7% 9% 6% 6% Top Policy 3% 3% Missouri Montana Nevada 28% 28% 26% 9% 22% 8% 6% 9% 8% 7

18 Top Policy in Competitive Senate States North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania 2 26% 28% 23% 20% 20% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% Top Policy 3% West Virginia Wisconsin 26% 2 22% 9% 20% 8% 7% 6% 8

19 Top Policy by Congressional District Competitiveness Safe that Lean Toss-Up that Lean Safe Top Policy 27% 26% 26% 26% 26% 8% 9% 2% 22% 23% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 3% s s 9 Tossup = +5 R PVI to +5 D PVI, Lean D = 6-0 D PVI, Lean R = 6-0 R PVI, Safe R = + 0 R PVI, Safe D = + 0 D PVI

20 Business Development For More Information Press Inquiries Methodology 20 The results are compiled from surveys with more than 352,836 registered voters across the U.S. from May, 208 to July 3, 208. The data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Respondents in each state answered questions specific to their Senators.

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