The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016

Transcription

1 The Battleground: Democratic Perspective September 7 th, 2016 Democratic Strategic Analysis: By Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Corey Teter As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 cycle, the political environment is highly competitive, but with Democrats holding a critical if narrow set of advantages. Democrats lead at the top of the ticket as well as on the Congressional trial heat, and enter the fall campaign with their President enjoying positive job performance ratings among the voting public. Voters see Hillary Clinton as better able than Donald Trump to handle a range of key issues that are defining the election including the economy, foreign affairs, and fighting for the middle class and afford her advantages on matters of caring about people, sharing their values, and having the temperament needed to serve as President. Clinton s advantages on these issues run 9 to 14 points ahead of her vote. The best campaign the Democrats can run in the last 60 days is to illustrate for the voters just how a President Hillary Clinton would govern and what she would put at the top of her agenda. At the same time, voters remain pessimistic in their outlook on the future, both Parties nominees are viewed negatively by voters, and while concerns over temperament are hampering Trump, concerns over trustworthiness pose a challenge for both candidates. Enthusiasm to turn out on Election Day is now a major concern an important warning sign for both campaigns. The data suggests that there is still plenty of potential for movement over the coming weeks; the outcome will likely be determined by which candidate and Party can more effectively galvanize its base and more convincingly espouse a vision of positive change for the country s future. Ballot Outlook The data reveals a number of encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot. The modest three-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot obscures more fundamental strengths underneath. Moderates swing toward Democratic candidates in a big way, supporting them over Republicans by more than a two-to-one margin (51% Democrats, 20% Republicans, and 29% undecided). Seniors, a group that tends to favor conservatives, now prefer Democrats slightly over Republicans (47% to 44%). The gender gap is extremely pronounced, with women supporting the Democrats by a 13-point margin and men the Republicans by a small but still impressive 9-point margin. The marital gap is less pronounced than in past years, though still significant: married men are voting Republican by a 17-point margin, while married women are split (Republicans 44%; Democrats 41%). Single women are voting Democratic by an incredible 68-point margin, and single men by seven points. Furthermore, the harsh rhetorical strategies deployed by the Trump campaign over the past year have reinforced the same problems with the Republican brand that hampered GOP efforts to take

2 the White House in While it is hardly surprising that the key members of the Rising American Electorate including African Americans (Democrats 87%; Republicans 5%), Latinos (Democrats 65%; Republicans 24%), single voters (Democrats 62%; Republicans 28%), younger women (Democrats 52%; Republicans 35%), and Millennials (Democrats 55%; Republicans 38%) all favor Democratic candidates by wide margins, this dynamic underscores just how ineffective the Republican Party s efforts to recast itself and reach out to these growing voting blocs have been, especially with Trump as the GOP s nominee. Of course, Democrats are also struggling to mobilize the Rising American Electorate. Fully 72% of white voters and 73% of married voters say they are extremely likely to vote compared to 52% of African Americans, 58% of Latinos, and 57% of single voters. Levels of voter engagement are low compared to previous cycles. Just 69% of voters report being extremely likely to cast a ballot in the 2016 race versus 80% at this point in 2012 and 79% in Moreover, while the level of anticipation was high across the board 4 years ago, enthusiasm has fallen particularly dramatically among Democrats and independents this election. Interest among Republicans, 73% of whom are extremely likely to vote, is still down from where it was when Mitt Romney was the GOP nominee (78% in September of 2012), but not to the same degree as among Democrats (from 81% to 68%) and independents (from 81% to 61%). Generating greater enthusiasm among Democrats and independent women will be an especially important priority for the Clinton campaign in these final weeks. At the top of the ticket, Clinton holds a narrow lead over Trump (Clinton 42%; Trump 40%), though negative views of both candidates limit their support, with neither approaching fifty percent at this stage. Libertarian Gary Johnson draws 10%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein attracts 3%, and just 5% of voters undecided. While Trump wins conservatives handily (Clinton 15%; Trump 66%), Clinton bests Trump by wide margins among not just liberals (Clinton 76%; Trump 8%), but moderates too (Clinton 57%; Trump 21%). It should also be noted that at this point in 2012, Obama led Romney by a similar 3-point margin before asserting a dominant lead in the fall campaign and going on to a resounding victory on Election Day. More voters say they are voting as an affirmative statement for Clinton (60%) than for Trump (54%). Clinton s and Trump s margins of support are clearly split along gender and racial lines. While Trump edges Clinton among white voters, 48% to 33%, Clinton dominates Trump among non-white voters, 67% to 17%. Her lead is especially pronounced among African Americans (Clinton 82%; Trump 5%), but decisive among Latino voters as well (Clinton 57%; Trump 24%). With such a short time left before Election Day, it remains highly questionable whether Trump can actually make any inroads with voters of color. Female college graduates and single women are also emerging as base voters for Clinton. As has remained the case from the beginning of the primaries, Trump s base of support remains white men, a group which he dominates Clinton 51% to 25%. Trump s lead among white women, however, is much more modest, with the Republican leading Clinton by only six points (Trump 46%; Clinton 40%). However, an encouraging sign for the Trump campaign, and an equally worrying one for Clinton s team, is Trump s lead among independent voters Trump leads Clinton 36% to 24%

3 among self-identified independents (he leads by 10 points among independent men while the two candidates are tied among independent women). Independent voters are also the most likely to say they will vote for Gary Johnson, with 20% of these voters planning to cast their ballots for the Libertarian candidate. Johnson s appeal is especially notable among independent men (24%). Of course, these voters have shown tremendous volatility and are among the most disaffected by the current politics. One of the more interesting dynamics of the race between Clinton and Trump is the striking similarities between the limits of their potential support moving forward. Currently, the number of voters who say they would never vote for either candidate is almost equivalent to the number of voters who say they would consider voting for them. Fully 47% of voters say they would consider voting for Clinton compared to 52% who say they would not consider voting for her, including 48% who hold this opinion strongly. Similarly, 46% of voters say they would consider voting for Trump, compared to 53% who say they would not consider voting for him, including 49% who hold this opinion strongly. Voters also appear increasingly conflicted between their allegiance to their political party and the specific candidates on the ballot a dynamic that is almost certainly driven by the top of the ticket. Currently, a significant plurality (45%) of voters say they are either very or somewhat likely to vote for one candidate from one party for President and for candidates from other parties for other offices an impressive number, even if those intentions are overstated at this time. This inclination toward ticket-splitting is most evident among independents, with close to seven-in-ten of these voters saying they are likely to vote for candidates from both parties this November. This is also the case with voters under the age of 45 a slight majority of whom (51%) say they are likely to be ticket-splitters on Election Day and women, 57% of whom would consider splitting their tickets compared to just 46% of men. Political Environment & Defining Issues The President s job approval numbers are at the highest level since after his re-election in 2012 (50% approve, 47% disapprove) and have held steady since the last Battleground Poll. This is a key metric of success for the incumbent Party s chances at retaining the office, and the President s strong numbers only reinforce the major role he can play in assembling and motivating the Democratic coalition to head to the polls this November. Not surprisingly, the President s appeal is most intense among younger voters and voters of color with his highest approval ratings coming from voters under the age of 45 (52% approve, 45% disapprove) and African American voters (89% approve, 8% disapprove). Gender continues to be a dividing line in how voters assess the President s performance 47% of men approve and 51% disapprove, while 53% of women approve and 43% disapprove. However, in spite of the President s high approval ratings, deep seated concerns about the trajectory of the country persist. Fully 66% of voters believe that the country is heading down the wrong track, with only 27% believing that it is heading in the right direction. The groups of voters most likely to feel the country is heading off on the wrong track include a mix of Republicans (90%) and white voters (71%), but also voters under the age of 45 (73%) and independents (75%).

4 Fueled by economic anxiety and disillusionment with the political process, voters hope that the next President will focus most on improving the economy (21% most important issue), jobs (11%), and fixing the dysfunction in government (18% most important issue.) Despite the increasingly divisive nature of this campaign season, opinions on the most important issues facing the country are remarkably similar across major demographic, regional, and partisan lines, with Republicans (28%), Democrats (35%), and independents (30%) all most focused on the economy and jobs. While economic anxiety undoubtedly remains the major prism through which voters are viewing this election, the persistent frustration with government especially among younger voters indicates that voters perceive a clear link between government dysfunction and the perceived lack of progress in addressing Americans economic challenges. While concern over an immediate economic recession has lessened slightly in recent years, the vast majority of voters (73%) still expresses concerns about the possibility of an impending downturn hurting their families. This sense of unease is shared across partisan lines, affirming that the candidate with the strongest, most-trusted economic platform will be best-positioned to grab swing votes on Election Day. Just under 1 in 10 voters cites foreign threats as a top concern (9%), though 43% are at least somewhat concerned about another terrorist attack affecting their families, including nearly half (48%) of women voters, suggesting that this will remain a key issue, even when such events do not dominate the headlines. Given this issue agenda, Democrats are strongly positioned on multiple fronts. In fact, Clinton bests Trump on every single issue tested. Voters not only trust Hillary Clinton to be a more effective economic steward than Trump (Clinton 51%; Trump 46%), they also give her leads, or see the candidates as tied, on issues that have been considered Republican strongholds for quite some time: voters trust Clinton more on taxes (Clinton 49%; Trump 47%), Health Care (Clinton 54%; Trump 42%), Jobs (Clinton 49%; Trump 47%); fighting for the middle class (Clinton 54%; Trump 40%), and foreign affairs (Clinton 55%; Trump 40%). Clinton s advantage on foreign affairs is likely to become increasingly prominent as the election draws closer, particularly with the heightened state of conflict in the Middle East, and the increasingly thorny relations with Russia, and to a lesser extent China, taking a much more prominent role in the media. Though this issue has generally been regarded as a Republican point of strength the data from this poll shows voters narrowly trust Republicans on foreign affairs over Democrats, 49% to 44% Clinton s strong lead on this subject, particularly among women (Clinton 60%; Trump 35%), suggests that she will continue to reference it as a defining point of contrast in an uncertain international arena. Voters also overwhelmingly believe Clinton has the better temperament to be President (Clinton 57%; Trump 31%). This is true among nearly every demographic subgroup, with the exception of Republicans. In fact, even Trump s base of support, white men, afford Clinton an edge on the dimension of temperament, 47% to 41%. Clinton s key challenge lies in how voters view her trustworthiness (with only 35% saying she is honest and trustworthy), which is strongly correlated with her favorability. As has been the case throughout this election, this sentiment is especially

5 pronounced among younger voters, white men, and independents. Indeed, considering the advantages voters afford Clinton on so many fronts, this particular concern, more than any other, appears to be constraining her ability to expand her support. Assessments of the Candidates Americans are historically unsatisfied with both major party nominees. Rattled by constant controversy and a seemingly endless list of gaffes on the part of the campaign and the candidate, Donald Trump is currently viewed favorably by less than four-in-ten Americans (38% favorable) with 58% viewing the Republican candidate unfavorably, including a staggering 50% who feel this way strongly. Trump s negative profile is driven in no small part by his abysmal standing among African Americans (91% unfavorable, 4% favorable), Latinos (75% unfavorable; 19% favorable), and women (61% unfavorable; 36% unfavorable), though his numbers with the latter have improved slightly since the previous Battleground Poll in April (71% unfavorable; 26% favorable). Among independents, 62% now have an unfavorable impression of Trump (just 33% favorable). Perhaps most worrisome for Trump is his image among white voters, a group Trump must win resoundingly to be competitive. While a slight majority (50%) of white men still holds a favorable opinion of Trump, his image is under water with white women: 55% of white women have an unfavorable opinion of Trump compared to 43% who view him favorably. Trump is also remarkably unpopular among college educated whites (60% unfavorable; 38% favorable), a group Republican presidential candidates have counted on and won in each Presidential election dating back to While Hillary Clinton s favorable numbers are slightly better than Trump s, her image is also highly polarized. As we saw in the previous Battleground poll, Clinton still enjoys strong appeal among the Democratic base (81% favorable), including African Americans (75% favorable; 24% unfavorable) and Latinos (60% favorable; 38% unfavorable). Clinton s challenge moving forward will be to improve her image among voters without a college degree (64% unfavorable; 34% favorable) and independents (66% unfavorable, 29% favorable) with the latter now holding a slightly more negative opinion of Clinton than Trump. Clinton also faces some difficulty in consolidating younger voters, as voters under the age of 45 view her in a negative light (60% unfavorable; 39% favorable). The data also shows as similar gender gap in Clinton s profile as in the previous Battleground Poll. While women are virtually spilt in their opinions of her (50% unfavorable; 49% favorable), an overwhelming majority of men has an unfavorable opinion of her (62% unfavorable; 36% favorable). Bill Clinton appears to be an asset in this campaign. His favorability (51% unfavorable; 43% favorable) is higher than both nominees and he boasts real appeal among the Democratic base (95% favorable among African Americans; 66% among Latinos; 58% among Millennials; and 68% among singles). And independents are split on his favorability with independent women solidly positive on the former President. Bill Clinton and the Obamas can be huge assets for Democratic turnout with little to no backlash.