TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: RORY COOPER, MANAGING DIRECTOR, PURPLE STRATEGIES RE: LOOKING AHEAD AT THE CONGRESS OF UNCERTAINTY

Transcription

1 TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: RORY COOPER, MANAGING DIRECTOR, PURPLE STRATEGIES RE: LOOKING AHEAD AT THE CONGRESS OF UNCERTAINTY DECEMBER 13, 2018

2 What We See: As we embark on the 116 th Congress, Democrats and Republicans alike will be familiarizing themselves with their new roles. Over 130 Democrats have never been in the House majority before. And over 140 Republicans have never served in the House minority before. For the returning conservatives who rode the 2010 wave into Congress, this will be a culture shock. At least for those of them left. Over 100 House members are not returning. The most since Bill Clinton s first term. Leadership will add some stability. Newly-elected Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy was Chief Deputy Whip in and is familiar with the terrain. Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Jim Clyburn (D-SC) were all at the helm then and will return to the positions they held, despite a more dramatic race than expected for Pelosi. But they will not return to the same dynamic they once enjoyed. Barack Obama isn t president and Harry Reid isn t the Majority Leader. House Democrats are the opposition now. Historically, members of Congress serve much longer than their counterparts of the past. But the past decade has seen a correction in that growth. As evidenced by this incoming class, Congress is making way for fresh faces. Term limits are being imposed by the voters. With these new faces comes demographic changes. While the Senate will look largely the same as it did last Congress, the House is quite different. Congress is younger and more diverse, thanks largely to the incoming Democratic wave in the House. At least 25 new members are under the age of 40, mostly Democrats, including two women under 30. For Republicans, the opposite holds true as they lost several women and shrinking a number that was already low a significant challenge for the party moving forward. Notably, there are many new military veterans in this incoming class, on both sides of the aisle. Of course, for Democrats that youthful insurgence is not reflected in leadership. The relatively young Republican leadership and committee chairmen are being replaced by septuagenarian Democratic leaders with an average age over 70, and committee chairs close to the same. 2

3 The Senate s changes are less staggering than the House. Even new faces like Mitt Romney (R-UT) don t feel quite new. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), age 42 and 38 respectively, reflect some of the more notable change, where they not only captured their seats from the opposing party but reflect younger, forward-looking faces. Nevertheless, the Senate will have less than 10 new members. Meanwhile, at least 10 Democratic Senators are exploring a 2020 run for president (Booker, Brown, Casey, Gillibrand, Harris, Klobuchar, Merkley, Murphy, Sanders, Warren). These Senators will be largely in absentia as they camp out in Des Moines and Manchester. Notoriously fickle American voters have mixed feelings and expectations about divided government. Those expectations are low. According to Gallup trends, over the past 16 years a strong plurality of voters don t think it makes a difference whether government is divided or not. Of those remaining, voters narrowly prefer single-party rule. Of course, those trends change with who is in the White House. Republicans are more apt to want single-party government when Donald Trump is president, while the reverse was true under Barack Obama. No president since Carter has enjoyed a full term in office with control of both chambers of Congress, so none of this is new. Actually, it s quite conventional. 3

4 To learn more about the sources and implications of division among Americans and potential solutions, ideas and aspirations that have the greatest potential to united us, Purple Strategies fielded a survey of 1,002 U.S. adult registered voters 18+ from October We learned: 94% of Americans believe that division is one of the most significant challenges we face as a country; Vast majorities in both parties are concerned we are losing shared beliefs that brought us together as Americans; Voters see political divisions but can t generally affix them to our most significant national issues, nor are voters so entrenched that they wouldn t favor compromise on certain issues; The solutions in America today require cultural resolution, because our cultural divisions are merely being expressed in a political context. To read more on our findings you can view our summary here. What It Means: 1. More shake-ups to come: This Congress is going to take a while to sort itself out, and much of that sorting will be heavily influenced by external events like Robert Mueller s investigation, progressive vs. center-left base politics, 2020 candidate positioning and the fate of the U.S. economy. The Mueller report could either vindicate President Trump, even if a circle of his advisers are implicated, or ratchet up additional oversight and cast a shadow on any substantive policy maneuvering by House Democrats. 2. More economic shake-ups to come: President Trump saw significant midterm losses despite a booming economy and very low unemployment. There is a strong likelihood that the current economic recovery slows or even potentially reverses before the 2020 election. The latest announcement by General Motors to close a number of plants, partially as a result of higher costs brought on by tariffs, is one piece of economic news likely to confuse political alliances, especially in Midwest battleground states. 3. Eager freshman with big expectations: Younger, more progressive Democrats will have outsized expectations of what they can accomplish in the House majority and how much the party should bend toward their brand of liberalism. They will have learned from the currently-irrelevant Freedom Caucus that a small block of majority voters can largely control the floor if they band closely together. 4. Welcome to obscurity, House GOP: Meanwhile, Republicans in the House will be facing the prospect of obscurity. There are very few tools at the minority s disposal to stay in the fight and be well known. After all, Beto O-Rourke (D-TX) was an unknown House member for several years before becoming a breakout Democratic leader. Minority House members often resort to punditry unless they can nab a choice ranking member position like Oversight or Judiciary. Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) and Trey Gowdy s (R-SC) retirements put those positions in play. 5. Culture and politics intertwined: Culture continues to be upstream of politics, and perhaps more interconnected than ever. Cultural battles are consuming political oxygen and the current tribal aspect of American politics is making traditional divisions feel extraordinary and irreversible. 4

5 What You Should Do: Companies and issue advocates should not feel rushed or be overly transactional in the new landscape, and instead take a measured approach to Washington for the next two years. The noise within the beltway will increase as people attempt to speak directly to lawmakers in both parties, and both sides of every conflict feel empowered by allies in power. Take time to build or re-build relationships. House Democrats will be looking for advocates of their plans to demonstrate how their brand helps middle class voters wooed by the president s rhetoric. Lonely House Republicans will be looking for friends as they navigate the wilderness. Senate Democrats will want to get in on their House counterpart s action while Senate Republicans will remain disciplined and singularly focused on approving presidential nominees to the judiciary and the executive. While relationship-building is necessary, it is no longer sufficient. The trends in age, terms and diversity in Congress require a more sustainable approach to mapping stakeholders and audiences and developing long-term strategies for issue and corporate reputation in a fluid political environment. With all of the new faces in Congress, there are hundreds more new faces staffing the offices and committees. K Street will shake up but will be starting from scratch with half of Congress, and 2020 electioneering will be drawing new outside forces inside the Capitol building. A younger Congress means more members getting their information from the same sources as their voters. And those members are creating more direct lines of communication back to their constituents, leaving less room for intermediating forces to dilute their messages and positions. This is a communication tactic that Trump has mastered and new members, particularly on the left, are deploying with increasing effectiveness, too. From Donald Trump to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, voters are rewarding authenticity and expect it from corporations and issue advocates as well. These authentic leaders also crave holding opponents accountable, especially when they re able to use the moment to show a clear distinction between their position and the opposing view. The House has a large number of impatient activists who want to make a mark. So expect House and Senate hearings that could entangle corporate leadership. Be prepared to introduce yourself early and often and with a clear a story about who you are that isn t driven by political conflict outside your control. Brands and politics, like culture and politics, are becoming increasingly difficult to separate. Chart the ideal path for yourselves through 2020 and identify strategies and action plans to stay on that track. We continue to stand ready to assist you in these efforts. 5