AGENTS OF CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME?
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1 The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2016 Biennial Post Election Conference AGENTS OF CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME? Paul Brathwaite & John Feehery November 17, 2016
2 House and Senate Republican Leadership: Victory Heals All Wounds No Challenge to Ryan or McConnell Diminished Power of the Freedom Caucus No Movement of any Leaders Cory Gardner and Steve Stivers take the reigns
3 Senate Democratic Leadership Position Current Leader Next Leader Leader Reid (D NV) Schumer (D NY) Whip Durbin (D IL) Durbin (D IL) Assistant Leader Durbin (D IL) Murray (D WA) Policy and Communications Chair Conference Vice Chairs Schumer (D NY) Schumer (D NY) Stabenow (D MI) Warner (D VA) and Warren (D MA) Steering Committee Chair Klobuchar (DFL MN) Klobuchar, (DFL MN) Outreach Chair Klobuchar (DFL MN) Sanders (I VT) Policy and Communications Vice Chair Stabenow (D MI) Manchin (D WV) Conference Secretary Murray (D WA) Baldwin (D WI) DSCC Chair Tester (D MT) TBD THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 3
4 House Democratic Leadership Position Current Leader Next Leader (Projected) Leader Pelosi (D CA) Pelosi (D CA) Whip Hoyer (D MD) Hoyer (D MD) Assistant Leader Clyburn (D SC) Clyburn (D SC) Caucus Chairman Becerra (D CA) Crowley (D NY) DCCC Chair Lujan (D NM) TBD THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 4
5 How To Tell A Rising Star What s their district look like? Who s their Mentor? Have they served in Congress or in the State House? Are they running for Class President or for the Steering Committee? What kind of staff are they hiring? How much money did they raise for their own campaign? How do they look on television? Do they want to join the Freedom Caucus?
6 Incoming Senate Democrats Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada) Tammy Duckworth (Illinois) Kamala Harris (California) Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire) Chris Van Hollen (Maryland) John Kennedy (R) vs Foster Campbell (D December 10 th Runoff (Louisiana) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 6
7 Incoming House Democrats The House freshman class will have 54 members, including from two runoffs in Louisiana. Nanette Barragán (CA 44) Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE AL) Anthony Brown (MD 04) Salud Carbajal (CA 24) Lou Correa (CA 46) Charlie Crist (FL 13) Val Demings (FL 10) Adriano Espaillat (NY 13) Dwight Evans (PA 02) Vincente Gonzalez (TX 15) Josh Gottheimer (NJ 05) Colleen Hanabusa (HI 01) Pramila Jayapal (WA 07) Ro Khanna (CA 17) Ruben Kihuen (NV 04) Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL 08) Al Lawson (FL 05) Donald McEachin (VA 04) Stephanie Murphy (FL 07) Thomas O Halleran (AZ 01) Jimmy Panetta (CA 20) Jamie Raskin (MD 08) Jacky Rosen (NV 03) Brad Schneider (IL 10) Carol Shea Porter (NH 01) Darren Soto (FL 09) Tom Suozzi (NY 03) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 7
8 Most Racial Diversity in History Congressional Black Caucus (49) Congressional Hispanic Caucus (31) Asian Pacific American Caucus (15) Anthony Brown (D MD) Lisa Blunt Rochester (D DE) Val Demings (D FL) Dwight Evans (D PA) Kamala Harris (D CA) Al Lawson (D FL) Donald McEachin (D VA) Nanette Barragán (D CA) Salud Carbajal (D CA) Lou Correa (D CA) Catherine Cortez Masto (D NV) Adriano Espaillat (D NY) Vicente Gonzalez (D TX) Ruben Kihuen (D NV) Darren Soto (D FL) Tammy Duckworth (D IL) Colleen Hanabusa (D HI) Kamala Harris (D CA) Pramila Jayapal (D WA) Ro Khanna(D CA) Raja Krishnamoorthi (D IL) Stephanie Murphy (D FL) NOTE: The Tri Caucus now comprises a total of 97 members, the highest in history. THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 8
9 Women in Congress In the Senate (21): 1. Catherine Cortez Masto (D NV) 2. Tammy Duckworth (D IL) 3. Kamala Harris (D CA) 4. Maggie Hassan (D NH) Fun Fact: Incoming female senators outnumber their male counterparts for the first time in history. In the House (83): 1. Nanette Barragán (D CA) 2. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D DE) 3. Val Demings (D FL) 4. Colleen Hanabusa (D HI) 5. Pramila Jayapal (D WA) 6. Stephanie Murphy (D FL) 7. Jacky Rosen (D NV) 8. Carol Shea Porter (D NH) THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 9
10 The Trump Transition Do they know what they don t know? Who Is in Charge of Hiring Will Bannon and Priebus Play Nice in the Sand Box? Do Never Trumpers Have a Chance or a Desire to serve? Will He Go Bipartisan? Will He Go Business or Government Experience?
11 How will Trump Govern? Will He Govern from the Center or from the Right? Will He Seeks Democrat input at the beginning, at the end or not even bother? Will Twitter Become A Tool or An Anvil Around His Neck? How will he use his Cabinet? What role will his family play? Will He Adapt to Washington or Will He Continue As An Outsider?
12 Potential GOP Stars in the Next Congress Liz Cheney: Big name, big network Lloyd Smucker; If it s Smucker s, it has to be good Francis Rooney: Of the Rooney clan Mike Gallagher: Favorite of Paul Ryan Roger Marshall : Beat Tim Huelscamp John Faso: Real pro from New York
13 Thank You John Feehery QGA Public Affairs 1133 Connecticut Avenue, NW Fifth Floor Washington, DC (202) Paul Brathwaite Podesta Group 1001 G Street, NW, #1000W Washington, DC (202) pbrathwaite@podestagroup.com THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES 13
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October 18, 2016 National Press Club Washington, D.C. Arturo Vargas Executive Director, NALEO Educational Fund
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