FTI CONSULTING STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS: US ELECTION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS: A LOOK AT THE 115 th CONGRESS

Transcription

1 FTI CONSULTING STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS: US ELECTION RESULTS AND ANALYSIS: A LOOK AT THE 115 th CONGRESS 2016

2 REPUBLICAN CONTROL PRESIDENCY, SENATE, HOUSE TRUMP TRIUMPHS SENATE Democrats 48 Run-off Election 1 Republicans 51 Clinton CURRENT ELECTORAL DATA Trump HOUSE 59,649,308 Votes 270 to Win 59,441,779 Votes Donald Trump secured the presidency. He won the majority of swing states, giving him a clear path to victory. Democrats 192 Too close to call 4 Republicans 239 Credit: Associated Press

3 THE SENATE

4 BALANCE OF POWER THE SENATE 113th Congress 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 2 Independents 114th Congress 44 Democrats, 54 Republicans, 2 Independents 115th Congress 46 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 2 Independents, 1 Pending Result * Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) caucus with the Democrats. Credit: Associated Press

5 NEW MEMBERS THE SENATE CALIFORNIA ILLINOIS INDIANA NEVADA Kamala Harris (D) Tammy Duckworth (D) Todd Young (R) Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Defeated Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D), replacing retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) First black senator representing California and first Indian-American in the U.S. Senate First woman elected as California Attorney General Daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica Graduate of Howard University and University of California, Hastings College of Law Defeated Sen. Mark Kirk (R) Former Rep. for Illinois s 8 th Congressional District Served as Assistant Secretary for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs in the United States Department of Veterans Affairs Iraq War veteran, U.S. Army helicopter pilot, double amputee Thai-Chinese heritage, first member of Congress born in Thailand Defeated Evan Bayh (D) to replace Dan Coats (R) Graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy University of Chicago MBA recipient Indiana University JD recipient Former Heritage Foundation employee Former Richard Luger staffer Defeated Joe Heck (R) to replace Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D) Two-term Nevada Attorney General Former U.S. Attorney Chief of Staff to Governor Bob Miller Conducted an investigation against Bank of America for allegedly raising interest rates on troubled borrowers NEW HAMPSHIRE Maggie Hassan (D) Defeated incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) Governor of New Hampshire Former member of the New Hampshire State Senate * LOUISIANA No candidate won 50% of the vote in the election to replace retiring Senator David Vitter (R). As a result, a runoff race will take place on December 10, John Kennedy (R) won 25% of the vote and Foster Campbell (D) won 17% of the vote. Charles Boustany (R) won approximately 15% of the vote.

6 LIKELY LEADERSHIP THE SENATE Senate Republicans retained the majority in the upper chamber, accounting for the Louisiana senatorial run-off election on December 10. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is retiring at the end of this year and will be replaced by Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As a result, the chair of the Senate Democratic Policy and Communications Center will be available and must be filled. REPUBLICAN SENATE LEADERSHIP DEMOCRATIC SENATE LEADERSHIP POSITION MEMBER POSITION MEMBER MAJORITY LEADER Mitch McConnell (R-KY) MINORITY LEADER Harry Reid (D-NV) [retiring to be replaced by Chuck Schumer (D-NY)] WHIP John Cornyn (R-TX) MINORITY WHIP Dick Durbin (D-IL), but Patty Murray (D-WA) is considering a challenge CONFERENCE CHAIR John Thune (R-SD) CHAIR OF THE SENATE DEMOCRATIC POLICY AND COMMUNICATIONS CENTER Open CONFERENCE VICE-CHAIR Roy Blunt (R-MO) SECRETARY OF THE CONFERENCE Patty Murray (D-WA, POLICY COMMITTEE CHAIR John Barrasso (R-WY) DEMOCRATIC STEERING AND OUTREACH COMMITTEE CHAIR Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE CHAIR Cory Gardner (R-CO) DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE Open PRESIDENT PRO TEMPORE Orrin Hatch (R-UT) * Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) caucus with the Democrats.

7 LIKELY COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP THE SENATE 115 th Congress COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN RANKING AGRICULTURE, NUTRITION AND FORESTRY Pat Roberts (R-KS) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) APPROPRIATIONS Thad Cochran (R-MS) Open Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Retiring ARMED SERVICES John McCain (R-AZ) Jack Reed (D-RI) BANKING, HOUSING AND URBAN AFFAIRS Open Richard Shelby (Term Limited), likely Mike Crapo (R-ID) Sherrod Brown (D-OH) BUDGET Mike Enzi (R-WY) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) COMMERCE, SCIENCE AND TRANSPORTATION John Thune (R-SD) Bill Nelson (D-FL) ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) Maria Cantwell (D-WA) ENVIRONMENT AND PUBLIC WORKS Open - Likely John Barasso (R-WY) Open Barbara Boxer (D-CA) retiring, likely Tom Carper (D-DE), Ben Cardin (D-MD) or Bernie Sanders (I-VT) FINANCE Orrin Hatch (R-UT) Ron Wyden (D-OR) FOREIGN RELATIONS Bob Corker (R-TN) Ben Cardin (D-MD) HELP Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Patty Murray (D-WA) Homeland Security Ron Johnson (R-WI) Tom Carper (D-DE)

8 LIKELY COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP THE SENATE 115 th Congress COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN RANKING JUDICIARY Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Patrick Leahy (D-VT) RULES AND ADMINISTRATION Roy Blunt (R-MO) Open Chuck Schumer (D-NY) becomes Minority Leader SBC Open Jim Risch (R-ID) is next most senior Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) VA Johnny Isakson (R-GA) Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) INTEL Richard Burr (R-NC) Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

9 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

10 BALANCE OF POWER HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 113th Congress 201 Democrats, 234 Republicans 114th Congress 186 Democrats, 246 Republicans, 3 Vacancies 115th Congress 192 Democrats, 239 Republicans, 4 Pending Results * There are 2 pending races in Louisiana and 2 pending races in California. The Louisiana races require run-off elections on December 10. Credit: Associated Press

11 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ARIZONA-01 Tom O Halleran(D) Tom O Halleran (D) defeated Paul Babeu (R) replacing Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) O Halleran formerly served as a Republican in the Arizona State Legislature Former Chicago, Illinois police officer ARIZONA-05 Andy Biggs (R) Andy Biggs (R) defeated Talia Fuentes (D) replacing retiring Rep. Matt Salmon (R) Biggs served in the Arizona State Legislature BA in Asian studies from Brigham Young University, a MA in political science from Arizona State University, and a JD from University of Arizona CALIFORNIA-17 Ro Khanna (D) Ro Khanna (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Mike Honda (D) Khanna served as Deputy Assistant Secretary in the US Department of Commerce under President Obama Khanna, born in Philadelphia, PA is of Indian descent CALIFORNIA-20 Jimmy Panetta (D) Jimmy Panetta (D) defeated Casey Lucius (R) replacing retiring Rep. Sam Farr (D) Panetta is the son of former Congressman/Defense Secretary/CIA Director Leon Panetta Panetta is a retired Naval intelligence officer and former deputy district attorney in Monterey County CALIFORNIA-24 Salud Carbajal (D) Salud Carbajal (D) defeated Justin Fareed (R) to replace retiring Rep. Lois Capps (D) The CA-24 race was known as one of the more expensive races in the House Carbajal is of Mexican descent

12 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES CALIFORNIA-44 Nanette Barragan(D) Nanette Barragan (D) defeated Isadore Hall III (D) to replace Rep. Janice Hahn (D) Barragan is an attorney and served in the Clinton White House in the Office of Public Liaison Barragan is of Mexican decent CALIFORNIA-46 Lou Correa (D) Lou Correa (D) defeated Bob Peterson (R) to replace Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) Correa served in the California State Senate Former investment banker, real estate broker, and college instructor DELAWARE-AL Lisa Rochester (D) Lisa Rochester (D) defeated Hans Riegle (R) replacing Rep. John Carney (D) Former Delaware Labor Secretary First woman and African-American to represent Delaware in Congress FLORIDA-01 Matt Gaetz (R) Matt Gaetz (R) defeated Steven Specht (D) replacing retiring Rep. Jeff Miller (R) Served in the Florida State Legislature Son of politician Don Gaetz FLORIDA-02 Neal Dunn (R) Neal Dunn (R) defeated Walter Dartland (D) replacing retiring Rep. Gwen Graham (D) Served in the US Army Surgeon and owner of his own Urology practice

13 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FLORIDA-04 John Rutherford (R) John Rutherford (R) defeated David Bruderly (D) replacing retiring Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) Former Sheriff of Jacksonville, Florida Attended the FBI National Academy FLORIDA-05 Al Lawson (D) Al Lawson (D) defeated Glo Smith (R) replacing Rep. Corrine Brown (D) Served in Florida State Legislature Master of Public Administration from Florida State University FLORIDA-07 Stephanie Murphy (D) Stephanie Murphy (D) defeated incumbent Rep. John Mica (R) One of the most expensive House races of the year 38 year old first-time candidate FLORIDA-09 Darren Soto (D) Darren Soto (D) defeated Wayne Liebnitzky (R) replacing Rep. Alan Grayson (D) First Puerto Rican Congressman from Florida Former Attorney FLORIDA-10 Val Demings (D) Val Demings (D) defeated Thuy Lowe (R) replacing Rep. Dan Webster (R) First woman to serve as Chief of the Orlando Police Department Democratic Nominee for Florida s 10 th Congressional District in 2012

14 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FLORIDA-13 Charlie Crist (D) Charlie Crist (D) defeated incumbent Rep. David Jolly (R) Served as the Governor of Florida Served in Florida State Legislature FLORIDA-18 Brian Mast (R) Brian Mast (R) defeated Randy Perkins (D) replacing Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) Served in Afghanistan and is an amputee Attended the 2011 State of the Union Address and was seated with the Vice President and First Lady FLORIDA-19 Francis Rooney (R) Francis Rooney (R) defeated Robert Neeld (D) replacing retiring Rep. Curt Clawson (R) Former United States Ambassador to the Holy See Served as CEO of Rooney Holdings GEORGIA-03 Drew Ferguson (R) Drew Ferguson (R) defeated Angela Pendley (D) replacing retiring Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R) Served as Mayor of West Point, Georgia Former dentist

15 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES HAWAII-01 Colleen Hanabusa (D) Colleen Hanabusa(D) was appointed to replace Rep. Mark Takai (D) who passed away before the end of his term Defeated Shirlene Ostrov (R) in the general election to win the open seat Served in the House of Representatives until defeated in the Democratic primary in the HI Senate race in 2014 Served in the Hawaii State Legislature ILLINOIS-08 Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) defeated Peter DiCianni (R) replacing Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D) Indian-American businessman, public servant Staffer on Barack Obama s 2000 election campaign for the House of Representatives ILLINOIS-10 Brad Schneider (D) Brad Schneider (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Robert Dold (R) Schneider held the seat before Dold defeated him in 2014 Former management consultant and industrial engineer INDIANA-03 Jim Banks (R) Jim Banks (R) defeated Tommy Schrader (D) replacing Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) Served in the Indiana State Legislature Deployed to Afghanistan during his term in the Indiana State Legislature, and was temporarily replaced by his wife INDIANA-09 Trey Hollingsworth (R) Trey Hollingsworth (R) defeated Shelli Yoder (D) replacing Rep. Todd Young (R) Owns a company that rehabilitates abandoned warehouses and manufacturing sites Spent million of his own money to fund his campaign

16 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES KANSAS-01 Roger Marshall (R) Roger Marshall (R) defeated Kerry Burt (I) and Alan LaPolice (I) replacing Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R) OBGYN and Chairman of the Board of Great Bend Regional Hospital Served in the Army Reserves KENTUCKY-01 James Comer (R) James Comer (R) defeated Sam Gaskins (D) replacing Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) who resigned in September 2016 Former state Agriculture Commissioner Lost gubernatorial primary in 2015 MARYLAND-04 Anthony Brown (D) Anthony Brown (D) defeated George McDermott (R) replacing Rep. Donna Edwards (D) Former Lt. Governor of Maryland, lost the 2014 governor s race Colonel in the United States Army Reserve MARYLAND-08 Jamie Raskin (D) Jamie Raskin (D) defeated Dan Cox (R) replacing Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) Majority Whip for Maryland State Senate Teaches constitutional law and legislation at American University MICHIGAN-01 Jack Bergman (R) Jack Bergman (R) defeated Lon Johnson (D) replacing retiring Rep. Dan Benishek (R) Retired US Marine Corps lieutenant general Won the GOP primary upsetting state Sen. Tom Caperson

17 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MICHIGAN-10 Paul Mitchell (R) Paul Mitchell (R) defeated Frank Accavitti (D) replacing retiring Rep. Candice Miller (R) Medical education businessman Ran for election in 4 th District of Michigan in 2014 and lost MINNESOTA-02 Jason Lewis (R) Defeated Angie Craig (D) to replace John Kline (R) who is retiring Syndicated talk-radio host Authored Power Divided is Power Checked: The Argument for States Rights NEBRASKA-02 Don Bacon (R) Defeated Rep. Brad Ashford (D) Retired U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Originally from Illinois Served as an aide to Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) NEVADA-03 Jacky Rosen (D) Defeated Danny Tarkanian (R) to replace Joe Heck (R) who ran against Catherine Cortez Masto (D) for Harry Reid s open Senate seat Worked as a computer programmer and consultant Led a public-private partnership to construct a large solar project in the City of Henderson, NV NEVADA-04 Ruben Kihuen (D) Defeated Rep. Crescent Hardy (R) Former Nevada state senator and Nevada state assemblyman Kihuen was born in Guadalajara, Mexico

18 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NEW HAMPSHIRE-01Carol Shea-Porter (D) Defeated Frank Guinta to retake her old House seat Former social worker and community college instructor Achieved notoriety for protesting the Iraq War NEW JERSEY-05 Joshua Gottheimer(D) Defeated Rep. Scott Garrett (R) Former speechwriter for Bill Clinton Worked for the FCC, Ford Motor Company, Burson-Marsteller and Microsoft NEW YORK-03 Thomas Suozzi (D) Defeated Jack Martins (R) to replace Steve Israel (D) Served as the mayor of Glen Cove, NY and County Executive of Nassau County, NY Obtained a law degree from Fordham University School of Law NEW YORK-13 Adriano Espaillat (D) Defeated Tony Evans (R) to replace Charles Rangel (D) who is retiring First Dominican-American and formally undocumented immigrant to serve in Congress Served in the New York State Assembly from 1996 to 2010 NEW YORK-19 John Faso (R) Defeated Zephyr Teachout (D) to replace Chris Gibson (R) who is retiring Served as minority leader of the New York State Assembly Earned his law degree from Georgetown University Law Center

19 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NEW YORK-22 Claudia Tenney (R) Defeated Kim Myers (D) to replace Richard Hanna (R) Member of the New York State Assembly Daughter of former New York State Supreme Court Justice John R. Tenney NORTH CAROLINA-02 George Holding (R) While not new to Congress, George Holding defeated Renee Ellmers (R) in an election for the newly redrawn 2 nd District Earned a JD from Wake Forest School of Law NORTH CAROLINA-13 Ted Budd (R) Defeated Bruce Davis (D) to fill George Holding s (R) open seat due to redistricting Shooting-sports retail store owner Lifetime NRA member Defeated James Jones (R) to replace Chaka Fattah (D) PENNSYLVANIA-02 Dwight Evans (D) Served as a member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives Worked as a school teacher in Philadelphia and for the Urban League PENNSYLVANIA- 08 Brian Fitzpatrick (R) Defeated Steve Santarsiero (D) to replace Mike Fitzpatrick (R) who is retiring Former FBI agent and federal prosecutor Brother of Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

20 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PENNSYLVANIA-16 Lloyd Smucker (R) Defeated Christina Hartman (D) to replace Joe Pitts (R) who is retiring Served as Pennsylvania state senator since 2009 Voted to legalize medical cannabis in PA TENNESSE-08 David Kustoff (R) Defeated Rickey Hobson (D) to replace Stephen Fincher (R) who is retiring Appointed as U.S. Attorney for Western TN by President George W. Bush Chaired the campaign for Lamar Alexander in 2002 TEXAS-15 TEXAS-19 VIRGINIA-02 Vicente Gonzalez (D) Jodey Arrington (R) Scott Taylor (R) Defeated Tim Westley (R) to replace Ruben Hinojosa who is retiring Earned a BS from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Earned a JD from, Texas A&M Law School Defeated Troy Bonar (L) and Mark Lawson (G) to replace Randy Neugebauer (R) who is retiring Served in the George W. Bush gubernatorial and presidential administrations Served as FDIC chief of staff under Donald E. Powell President of Scott Laboratories Defeated Shaun Brown (D) to win reconfigures 2 nd district Former U.S. Navy Seal and real estate broker Author of Trust Betrayed: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the Selling out of America s National Security Fluent in Spanish Served as Virginia state delegate from 2013 to present

21 NEW MEMBERS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES VIRGINIA-04 Donald McEachin (D) Defeated Mike Wade (R) to win redrawn district Served as a Virginia state delegate from and Partner at McEachin and Gee law firm VIRGINIA-05 WASHINGTON- 07 WISCONSIN-08 Tom Garrett (R) Pramila Jayapal (D) Mike Gallagher (R) Defeated Jane Dittmar (D) to replace Robert Hurt who is retiring Former prosecutor Served as a Virginia state senator for the past five years Defeated Brady Walkinshaw (D) to replace Jim McDermott (D) who is retiring First Indian-American woman elected to Congress Endorsed by Bernie Sanders Civil rights and immigration activist, executive director of OneAmerica Mike Gallagher defeated Tom Nelson (D) to replace Reid Ribble (R) who is retiring Strategist for Breakthrough Fuel Former Senate Foreign Relations staffer and Gov. Scott Walker campaigner WYOMING-AL Liz Cheney (R) Defeated Ryan Greene (D) with 62% of the vote to replace Cynthia Lummis (R) who is retiring Daughter of Vice President Dick Cheney State Department employee under George W. Bush Co-founder of keep America Safe

22 LIKELY LEADERSHIP HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 115 th Congress The House Republican Conference is scheduled to hold its closed-door leadership elections on November 15. The Democratic Caucus will hold its leadership elections during freshman orientation in November either the week after the election or the week after Thanksgiving. REPUBLICAN HOUSE LEADERSHIP DEMOCRATIC HOUSE LEADERSHIP POSITION MEMBER POSITION MEMBER SPEAKER Paul Ryan (R-WI) MINORITY LEADER Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) MAJORITY LEADER Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) MINORITY WHIP Steny Hoyer (D-MD) MAJORITY WHIP Steve Scalise (R-LA) ASSISTANT MINORITY LEADER James E. Clyburn (D-SC) REPUBLICAN DEPUTY WHIP Patrick McHenry (R-NC) CAUCUS CHAIR Joseph Crowley (D-NY)) REPUBLICAN CONFERENCE CHAIRMAN Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA) DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM) NRCC CHAIRMAN Steve Stivers (R-OH) or Roger Williams (R-TX) * This chart accounts for current leadership in the House of Representatives and projected leadership.

23 LIKELY COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 115 th Congress COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN RANKING ADMINISTRATION Open Candice Miller (R-MI) is retiring Robert Brady (D-PA) AGRICULTURE Mike Conaway (R-TX) Collin Peterson (D-MN) APPROPRIATIONS Open Hal Rogers (R-KY) Term Limited Likely: Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) Nita Lowey (D-NY) ARMED SERVICES Mac Thornberry (R-TX) Adam Smith (D-WA) BUDGET Tom Price (R-GA) Open Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) won Senate seat EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE Virginia Foxx (R-NC) Bobby Scott (D-VA) ENERGY & COMMERCE Open Fred Upton (R-MI) is term limited, likely John Shimkus (R-IL), Greg Walden (R-OR) or Joe Barton (R-TX) Frank Pallone (D-NJ) FINANCIAL SERVICES Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) Maxine Waters (D-CA) FOREIGN AFFAIRS Ed Royce (R-CA) Eliot Engel (D-NY) HOMELAND SECURITY Michael McCaul (R-TX) Bennie Thompson (D-MS) JUDICIARY Bob Goodlatte (R-VA) John Conyers (D-MI) NATURAL RESOURCES Rob Bishop (R-UT) Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)

24 LIKELY COMMITTEE LEADERSHIP HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 115 th Congress COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN RANKING OVERSIGHT AND GOVT. REFORM Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) Elijah Cummings (D-MD) RULES Pete Sessions (R-TX) Louise Slaughter (D-NY) SCIENCE, SPACE AND TECHNOLOGY Lamar Smith (R-TX) Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-TX) SMALL BUSINESS Steve Chabot (R-OH) Nydia Velazquez (D-NY) TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE VETERAN S AFFAIRS Bill Shuster (R-PA) Open Jeff Miller (R-FL) Retiring Possible replacements: Doug Lamborn (R-CO) Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) Phil Roe (R-TN) Mike Coffman (R-CO) Peter DeFazio (D-OR) Open Corrine Brown (D-FL) Lost Primary WAYS AND MEANS Kevin Brady (R-TX) Sander Levin (D-MI) PERMANENT SELECT ON INTELLIGENCE Devin Nunes (R-CA) Adam Schiff (D-CA)

25 SENATE RACES: 2018

26 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE In 2018, 24 Democrats including the two Independent senators and 9 Republicans will face reelection. ARIZONA Jeff Flake (R) One-term senator Elected with 49% of the vote in 2012 Will be 55 years old in 2018 CALIFORNIA Diane Feinstein (D) Four-term senator Elected with 63% of the vote in 2012 Ranking Member of the Select Committee on Intelligence Will be 85 years old in 2018 CONNECTICU T Chris Murphy (D) One-term senator Elected with 55% of the vote in 2012 Will be 45 years old in 2018 DELAWARE Tom Carper (D) Three-term senator Elected with 66% of the vote in 2012 Will be 71 years old in 2018 FLORIDA Bill Nelson (D) Three-term senator Won with 55% of the vote in 2012 Ranking Member of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee Will be 76 years old in 2018

27 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE HAWAII Mazie Hirono(D) One-term senator Elected with 63% of the vote in 2012 Will be 71 years old in 2018 INDIANA Joe Donnelly (D) One-term senator Elected with 50% of the vote in 2012 Will be 63 years old in 2018 MAINE Angus King (I) One-term senator Elected with 53% of the vote in 2012 (three-way race) Will be 74 years old in 2018 MARYLAND Ben Cardin (D) Two-term senator Elected with 56% of the vote in 2012 Will be 75 years old in 2018 MASSACHUSETT S Elizabeth Warren (D) One-term senator Won with 54% of the vote in 2012 Will be 69 years old in 2018

28 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE MICHIGAN Debbie Stabenow (D) Three-term senator Elected with 59% of the vote in 2012 Will be 68 years old in 2018 MINNESOTA Amy Klobuchar (D) Two-term senator Elected with 65% of the vote in 2012 Will be 58 years old in 2018 MISSISSIPPI Roger Wicker (R) One-term senator Elected with 57% of the vote in 2012 Appointed in 2007 and won special election in 2008 to replace Trent Lott Will be 67 years old in 2018 MISSOURI Claire McCaskill (D) Two-term senator Elected with 55% of the vote in 2012 Will be 65 years old in 2018 MONTANA Jon Tester (D) Two-term senator Won with 49% of the vote in 2012 Will be 62 years old in 2018

29 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE NEBRASKA Deb Fischer (R) One-term senator Elected with 56% of the vote in 2012 Will be 67 years old in 2018 NEVADA Dean Heller (R) One-term senator Elected with 46% of the vote in 2012 Will be 58 years old in 2018 NEW JERSEY Bob Menendez (D) Two-term senator Elected with 59% of the vote in 2012 Will be 64 years old in 2018 NEW MEXICO Martin Heinrich (D) One-term senator Elected with 51% of the vote in 2012 Will be 47 years old in 2018 NEW YORK Kirsten Gillibrand (D) One-term senator Won with 72% of the vote in 2012 Appointed to the seat in 2009 and won special election in 2010 to replace Hillary Clinton Will be 51 years old in 2018

30 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE NORTH DAKOTA Heidi Heitkamp(D) One-term senator Elected with 50% of the vote in 2012 Will be 63 years old in 2018 OHIO Sherrod Brown (D) Two-term senator Elected with 51% of the vote in 2012 Will be 65 years old in 2018 PENNSYLVANI A Bob Casey, Jr. (D) Two-term senator Elected with 59% of the vote in 2012 Will be 58 years old in 2018 RHODE ISLAND Sheldon Whitehouse (D) Two-term senator Elected with 64% of the vote in 2012 Will be 63 years old in 2018 TENNESSEE Bob Corker (R) Two-term senator Won with 65% of the vote in 2012 Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations Will be 66 years old in 2018

31 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE TEXAS Ted Cruz (R) One-term senator Elected with 57% of the vote in 2012 Will be 47 years old in 2018 UTAH Orrin Hatch (R) Seven-term senator Elected with 65% of the vote in 2012 Chairman of the Finance Committee and President pro tempore Will be 84 years old in 2018 VERMONT Bernie Sanders (I) Two-term senator Elected with 71% of the vote in 2012 Will be 77 years old in 2018 VIRGINIA Tim Kaine (D) One-term senator Elected with 53% of the vote in 2012 Will be 60 years old in 2018 WASHINGTON Maria Cantwell (D) Three-term senator Won with 61% of the vote in 2012 Ranking Member of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee Will be 60 years old in 2018

32 2018 OUTLOOK THE SENATE WEST VIRGINIA Joe Manchin(D) One-term senator Elected in special election in 2010 to fill Byrd s seat Will be 71 years old in 2018 WISCONSIN Tammy Baldwin (D) One-term senator Elected with 51% of the vote in 2012 Will be 56 years old in 2018 WYOMING John Barrasso (R) One-term senator Elected with 76% of the vote in 2012 Appointed to the seat in 2007 and won a special election in 2008 to fill Craig L. Thomas' seat Chair of Indian Affairs Committee Will be 66 years old in 2018