National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1996 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report January 18-22, 2019 P1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track % Q172 P3 POL1_1 POL1_2 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 376 9% Somewhat Disapprove 239 2% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 63 3% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues like taxes, wages, jobs, % unemployment, and spending Security Issues like terrorism, foreign policy, and % border security Health Care Issues like the 2010 health care law, 304 5% Medicaid, other challenges Seniors Issues like Medicare and Social Security 256 3% Women s Issues like birth control, abortion, and equal 95 5% pay Education Issues like school standards, class sizes, 35 7% school choice, and student loans Energy Issues like carbon emissions, cost of 87 4% electricity/gasoline, or renewables Other: 97 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 376 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 362 8% Page 1

2 POL1_3 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 69 35% Don t Know / No Opinion 379 9% POL1_4 POL1_5 POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 380 9% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 249 2% Should not be done 03 5% Don t know / No opinion 84 9% POL2_2 POL2_3 POL2_4 POL2_5 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to address climate change A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 382 9% Should not be done 26 3% Don t know / No opinion 26 3% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reduce economic inequality A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 358 8% Should not be done 246 2% Don t know / No opinion 287 4% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 325 6% Should not be done 98 5% Don t know / No opinion 3 2 6% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Beginning impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office A top priority % An important, but lower priority 27 4% Not too important a priority 79 9% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 345 7% Page 3

4 POL2_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 282 4% Should not be done 6 6% Don t know / No opinion 223 % POL2_7 POL2_8 POL2_9 POL2_10 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 332 7% Not too important a priority 229 % Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 282 4% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority 55 28% Not too important a priority 328 6% Should not be done 346 7% Don t know / No opinion 246 2% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 263 3% Should not be done 6 3% Don t know / No opinion 92 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 270 4% Should not be done 46 23% Don t know / No opinion 256 3% Page 4

5 POL2_11 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Regulation of tech companies A top priority 283 4% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority % Should not be done 2 9 % Don t know / No opinion 3 9 6% POL3 POL4 From the list of potential candidates below, who would you vote for if the Democratic primary for the 2020 presidential election were held today? John Kerry 38 2% Joe Biden 34 7% Bernie Sanders 243 2% Elizabeth Warren 62 3% Beto O Rourke 74 4% Cory Booker 40 2% Kamala Harris 86 4% Sherrod Brown 6 % Amy Klobuchar 28 % Kirsten Gillibrand 27 % Eric Holder 5 0% John Delaney 4 0% Julian Castro 8 % Jay Inslee 7 0% Eric Garcetti 6 0% Steve Bullock 9 0% Howard Schultz 2 % Michael Bloomberg 46 2% John Hickenlooper % Terry McAuliffe 7 0% Tulsi Gabbard 9 0% Other 3 6% Don t Know / No Opinion % If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you de nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or de nitely vote for someone else? De nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump % Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump 228 % Probably vote for someone else 53 8% De nitely vote for someone else % Would not vote 58 3% Don t know / No opinion 4 6% Page 5

6 POL5 If the election for U.S. Congress in your district was held today, which one of the following candidates are you most likely to vote for? Democratic candidate % Republican Candidate % Would not vote 55 3% Don t know / No opinion 334 7% POL6_1 POL6_2 POL6_3 POL6_4 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The federal government partially shutting down starting on December 22, 2018 A lot % Some % Not much 49 7% Nothing at all 57 3% Don t know / No opinion 52 8% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Published reports that allege President Donald Trump has repeatedly tried to conceal some of his conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin from his advisers. A lot 55 28% Some % Not much 358 8% Nothing at all 2 % Don t know / No opinion 2 7 % How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Published reports showing FBI agents opened an investigation in 2017 into President Donald Trump s relationship with the Russian government after ring FBI Director James Comey A lot % Some % Not much 377 9% Nothing at all 70 9% Don t know / No opinion 223 % How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) rescinding her invitation for President Donald Trump to deliver the State of the Union address on Jan. 29. A lot % Some % Not much 347 7% Nothing at all 283 4% Don t know / No opinion 267 3% Page 6

7 POL6_5 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? President Donald Trump denying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) the use of military aircraft for her scheduled congressional trip to Brussels and Afghanistan. A lot % Some 57 29% Not much 333 7% Nothing at all 260 3% Don t know / No opinion 225 % POL6_6 POL6_7 POL7 POL8 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? A published report that federal law enforcement officials have evidence showing President Donald Trump directed his longtime attorney, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress about the Trump Organization s efforts to build a Trump Tower in Russia in order to conceal Trump s involvement. A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all 238 2% Don t know / No opinion 234 2% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? A meeting scheduled for late February between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un A lot 305 5% Some 64 32% Not much % Nothing at all 297 5% Don t know / No opinion 238 2% How likely do you think it is that Russia has compromising information on President Trump? Very likely % Somewhat likely % Not very likely 270 4% Not likely at all 342 7% Don t know / No opinion 250 3% Do you think the Department of Justice s investigation into Russia s in uence on the 2016 presidential election has been handled fairly or unfairly? Very fairly % Somewhat fairly 324 6% Not too fairly 338 7% Not fairly at all % Don t know / No opinion % Page 7

8 POL9 Do you think President Trump s campaign worked with Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election? Yes, I think President Trump s campaign worked with % Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. No, I don t think President Trump s campaign worked % with Russia to in uence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Don t know / No opinion 386 9% POL10 POL11 POL12 POL13 And do you think President Trump has tried to impede or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia? Yes, I think President Trump has tried to impede or % obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. No, I don t think President Trump has tried to impede % or obstruct the investigation into whether his campaign had ties to Russia. Don t know / No opinion 35 8% When it comes to the Department of Justice s investigation into Russia s in uence on the 2016 presidential election, which of the following statements comes closer to your view, even if neither are exactly right? The Department of Justice s investigation on the % presidential election is mostly a serious matter and should continue. The Department of Justice s investigation on the % presidential election is mostly an effort to discredit President Trump and should be ended. Don t Know/No Opinion 370 9% Who would you say is mostly to blame for the government shutdown? Republicans in Congress 90 4% Democrats in Congress % President Trump % Don t know / No opinion 226 % Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right? The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal 92 46% government is a crisis The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal % government is a problem The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal 88 9% government is not a crisis or a problem Don t know / No opinion 84 9% Page 8

9 POL14 To what extent has the recent partial government shutdown impacted you and your family? A lot 58 8% Some % Not much % Not at all % Don t know / No opinion 53 8% POL15 As you may know, the recent partial government shutdown may impact the pay of federal workers across the United States. How concerned are you, if at all, about federal workers not receiving pay for the duration of the shutdown? Very concerned % Somewhat concerned % Not too concerned 78 9% Not concerned at all 3 7% Don t know / No opinion 52 8% POL16 Do you support or oppose the construction of a border wall along the United States Mexico border? Strongly support % Somewhat support 279 4% Somewhat oppose 90 0% Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion 7 9% POL17_1 POL17_2 If the only way to end the government shutdown is to do the following, would you support or oppose it? Dedicate funds for border security, but not a border wall along the United States Mexico border (N=866) Strongly support 93 % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 70 20% Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion 39 6% If the only way to end the government shutdown is to do the following, would you support or oppose it? Pass a bill that that does not include funds for any type of border security, including a border wall along the United States Mexico border (N=866) Strongly support 52 6% Somewhat support 72 8% Somewhat oppose 99 % Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion % Page 9

10 POL18_1 If the only way to end the government shutdown is to do the following, would you support or oppose it? Dedicate funds for a border wall along the United States Mexico border (N=959) Strongly support 27 3% Somewhat support 42 4% Somewhat oppose 2 3% Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion % POL18_2 POLx_1 If the only way to end the government shutdown is to do the following, would you support or oppose it? Pass a bill that includes funds for any type of border security, including a border wall along the United States Mexico border (N=959) Strongly support 50 5% Somewhat support 27 3% Somewhat oppose % Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion 54 6% Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 42 2 % Never Heard Of 347 7% POLx_2 Favorability for Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 247 2% Never Heard Of 60 8% POLx_3 Favorability for Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 380 9% Page 10

11 POLx_4 Favorability for Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 257 3% Never Heard Of 33 7% POLx_5 Favorability for Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 09 55% Heard Of, No Opinion 73 4% Never Heard Of 34 2% POLx_6 POLx_7 Favorability for Republicans in Congress Favorability for Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 87 9% Never Heard Of 97 5% Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 93 47% Heard Of, No Opinion 78 9% Never Heard Of 93 5% POLx_8 Favorability for Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of 3 5 6% POLx_9 Favorability for Kevin McCarthy Total Favorable 263 3% Total Unfavorable 340 7% Heard Of, No Opinion 57 29% Never Heard Of % POLx_10 Favorability for Joe Biden Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 264 3% Never Heard Of 97 5% Page 11

12 POLx_11 Favorability for Bernie Sanders Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 249 2% Never Heard Of 9 5% POLx_12 Favorability for Elizabeth Warren Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 384 9% Never Heard Of 38 9% POLx_13 POLx_14 POLx_15 Favorability for Beto O Rourke Favorability for Kamala Harris Favorability for Sherrod Brown Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 384 9% Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 387 9% Heard Of, No Opinion 389 9% Never Heard Of % Total Favorable 248 2% Total Unfavorable 272 4% Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % POLx_16 Favorability for Amy Klobuchar Total Favorable 283 4% Total Unfavorable 285 4% Heard Of, No Opinion 382 9% Never Heard Of % POLx_17 Favorability for Cory Booker Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 379 9% Never Heard Of 76 38% Page 12

13 POLx_18 POLx_19 Favorability for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Favorability for Kirsten Gillibrand Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion 339 7% Never Heard Of % Total Favorable 353 8% Total Unfavorable 377 9% Heard Of, No Opinion % Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 13

14 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 87 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 276 4% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 326 6% PID/Gender: Ind Women 330 7% PID/Gender: Rep Men 333 7% PID/Gender: Rep Women 3 3 6% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) 388 9% Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 754 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 269 3% Continued on next page Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #190140, January, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 93 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 29 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 328 6% Relig: Something Else 85 9% N 0 8 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 45 2% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 338 7% N 0 8 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian 236 2% N 254 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 29 6% Employ: Self-Employed 99 0% Employ: Homemaker 2 6% Employ: Student 7 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 55 8% Employ: Other 200 0% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 388 9% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 15

16 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track % Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove 4 57% N 933 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve 376 9% Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 239 2% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 933 Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump 08 5% Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 09 55% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 73 4% Very Unfavorable of Trump 34 2% xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security % #1 Issue: Health Care 304 5% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 256 3% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 95 5% #1 Issue: Education 35 7% #1 Issue: Energy 87 4% #1 Issue: Other 97 5% xsubvote18o 2018 House Vote: Democrat % 2018 House Vote: Republican % 2018 House Vote: Someone else 07 5% 2018 House Vote: Didnt Vote % N 987 xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 84 9% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote % N 993 Continued on next page Page 16

17 National Tracking Poll #190140, January, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 88 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 995 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 356 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 17

18 Morning Consult Page 18