Greenberg Research July National Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire

Transcription

1 Greenberg Research July National Phone Survey Frequency Questionnaire July 19-26, Registered Voters 486 Democrats and Democratic-Leaning Independents 395 Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents 186 Evangelical or Tea Party Republicans ( Trump Loyalists) 209 Catholic, Moderate, or Secular Republicans ( Less Enthusiastic GOP ) Q.4 First of all, are you registered to vote at this address? Yes No (Don't know/refused) (ref:screen1) Q.10 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican or what? Strong Democrat Weak Democrat Independent-lean Democrat Independent Independent-lean Republican Weak Republican Strong Republican (Don't know/refused) (ref:ptyid1)

2 2 Q.13 What are the chances of your voting in the elections for Congress and other offices in November: are you almost certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or don't you think you will vote? Almost certain Probably Will not vote (Don't know) (Refused) (ref:cp18) [274 Respondents] Q.14 (ONLY IF NAME OFF FILE) How often would you say you vote? Always Nearly always Part of the time Seldom (Never) (Other/Don't know/refused) (ref:oftvote) Q.15 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track (Don't know/refused) Right - Wrong (ref:direct)

3 3 Q.16 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove (Don't know/refused) Total approve Total disapprove Approve - disapprove (ref:dtapp) Q.17 Now, I'd like you to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and ideas, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person, organization, or idea. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person, organization, or idea, please say so. Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 17 The Republican Party Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP The Democratic Party Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP The Republican Congress Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Donald Trump Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

4 4 Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 21 Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader of the House Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP [493 Respondents] 22 (SPLIT A) Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the Senate Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP [493 Respondents] 23 (SPLIT A) Joe Biden Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP [510 Respondents] 24 (SPLIT B) Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Elizabeth Warren Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP [510 Respondents] 26 (SPLIT B) Bernie Sanders Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP The N.R.A., or National Rifle Association Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

5 5 Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 28 Pro-life, anti-abortion groups Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Gay marriage Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Fox News Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP The Tea Party Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) Planned Parenthood Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Measures to prevent global warming Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP The Affordable Care Act or Obamacare Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

6 6 Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 35 CEOs of large businesses Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (ref:therm205) Q.36 As you may know, there will be an election for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices in November. How interested are you in the elections in November? Please rate your interest from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you have no interest in this election and 10 meaning that you are extremely interested (Don't know/refused) Mean (ref:intrst1)

7 7 Q.37 Thinking about the election for Congress in your district in November, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democratic candidate Lean Democratic candidate Republican candidate Lean Republican candidate (Other candidate) (Don't know) (Will not vote) (Refused) Total Democratic candidate Total Republican candidate (Other candidate) (ref:gen18) Q.39 How certain are you that you would vote for the (CANDIDATE CHOSEN) -- are you very certain, somewhat certain or not certain at all? Strong Dem candidate Weak Dem candidate Weak Rep candidate Strong Rep candidate (Other candidate) (Undecided) (Refused) (Will not vote) (ref:cong18cert) Q.40 Thinking about the party primaries for the candidates for president in 2020, do you think you will vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or don't you think you will vote? The Democratic primary The Republican primary Will not vote in the primaries (Don't know/refused) (ref:prim2020)

8 8 [348 Respondents] Q.41 (ASK IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY) President Trump has announced he will run for re-election in Do you want the Republican Party to continue to be led by Donald Trump or do you want the Republican Party to be led by a different kind of leader? Want the Republican Party to continue to be led by Donald Trump strongly Want the Republican Party to continue to be led by Donald Trump somewhat Want the Republican Party to be led by a different kind of leader somewhat Want the Republican Party to be led by a different kind of leader strongly (Don't know/refused) Total Trump Total Different Trump - Different (ref:gopchall) [443 Respondents] Q.42 (ASK IF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY) Thinking about the primary for the Democratic candidate for president in 2020, if the Democratic primary were held today, who would you vote for? Vice President Joe Biden Senator Bernie Sanders Senator Elizabeth Warren Senator Cory Booker Senator Kamala Harris A governor, like Terry McAuliffe of Virginia, Steve Bullock of Montana or John Hickenlooper of Colorado Howard Schulz, former CEO of Starbucks Tom Steyer, businessman and founder of groups dealing with climate change and impeachment Mitch Landrieu, former mayor and Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (Other) (Don't know/refused) (ref:dprimvt1)

9 9 [404 Respondents] Q.44 (SKIP IF DK/REF) Even though you are supporting (CHOSEN CANDIDATE) right now, who would be your second choice for the Democratic nominee in 2020? Senator Bernie Sanders Vice President Joe Biden Senator Elizabeth Warren Senator Cory Booker Senator Kamala Harris A governor, like Terry McAuliffe of Virginia, Steve Bullock of Montana or John Hickenlooper of Colorado Tom Steyer, businessman and founder of groups dealing with climate change and impeachment Howard Schulz, former CEO of Starbucks Mitch Landrieu, former mayor and Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana (Other) (Don't know/refused) (ref:dprimsec) Q.45 (REPUBLICANS) I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2020, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, the Democratic candidate, or Third Party Independent candidate John Kasich? Democratic Candidate Lean Democratic Candidate Republican Donald Trump Lean Republican Donald Trump Independent John Kasich Lean Independent John Kasich (Other candidate) Lean (Other candidate) (Undecided) (Will not vote) (Refused) Total Democratic Candidate Total Republican Donald Trump Total Independent John Kasich Total (Other candidate) (ref:prs20vt1)

10 10 Q.47 Now let me read you some more names. Please rate them on the same scale of zero to one hundred we were using just a moment ago. Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 47 Immigrants to the US Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Mosques Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) Disrespecting the American flag Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Environmentalists Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) English as the official American language Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Preventing discrimination against white people Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

11 11 Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 53 (REPUBLICANS)Government assistance with child care and the cost of college Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Government guarantee that all have good health care Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) Ensuring peace through military strength Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) More government regulation of business Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS)Abortion being legal in most cases Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) Raising taxes on those making over $250,000 a year so they pay their fair share Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

12 12 Warm % % % % % - Mean Warm Cool >75 <26 ID Cool 59 (REPUBLICANS) Coming into contact with people who speak little or no English Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) Government guaranteeing men and women get equal pay Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) The #MeToo movement Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (REPUBLICANS) The 2nd Amendment right to bear arms Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (ref:therm206)

13 13 Q.63 Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political parties. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes the Republican Party very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Not Total Well Very Too Well DK/ Total Not - Well Well Well At All Ref Well Well Not 65 It is now Donald Trump's Republican Party Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Shares your values Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Is bringing the right kind of change Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (ref:reppos) Q.66 Now, I am going to read you a list of words and phrases which people use to describe political parties. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes the Republican Party very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Not Not Total Well Very Too Well DK/ Total Not - Well Well Well At All Ref Well Well Not 66 For the rich Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Always doing what corporate special interests want Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Dividing the country Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP

14 14 Not Not Total Well Very Too Well DK/ Total Not - Well Well Well At All Ref Well Well Not 67 Out of touch Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP Dangerous Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Moderate/Secular GOP (ref:repneg) Q.71 Trump and President Putin of Russia held a meeting and joint press conference last week in Helsinki. Do you approve or disapprove of what of what President Trump said in the press conference after the meeting? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove (Don't know/refused) Total Approve Total Disapprove Approve - Disapprove (ref:helrcal2) Q.72 (REPUBLICANS) Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by President Trump and the REPUBLICANS as part of their plan to make America better. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel more positive, less positive or if it makes no difference to how you feel about their plan. Much Smwt Little No Less Much/ Total More More More More Differ Posi DK/ Smwt More - Pos Pos Pos ence tive Ref More Pos Less 75 Require Medicaid and food stamp recipients to prove they have or are looking for work Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP

15 15 Much Smwt Little No Less Much/ Total More More More More Differ Posi DK/ Smwt More - Pos Pos Pos ence tive Ref More Pos Less 73 Repeal Obamacare and allow states to offer lower cost plans Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Close our borders to protect workers from unfair competition from illegal immigrants Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/Modrt/Secular GOP Put tariffs on foreign imports to close the trade deficit with China and Europe Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Shift energy policy to promote greater coal mining and oil exploration off America's coasts Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Create a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that will overturn the Affordable Care Act requirement that insurance plans cover people with pre-existing conditions Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP

16 16 Much Smwt Little No Less Much/ Total More More More More Differ Posi DK/ Smwt More - Pos Pos Pos ence tive Ref More Pos Less 79 Reduce environmental regulations and fuel efficiency standards to increase manufacturing and car production Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Cut taxes for corporations Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Create a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that will overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that made abortion legal Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP End the state Medicaid expansion that covers low wage workers Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP Repeal the federal regulations that allow women to know whether they face pay discrimination Democrats Republicans Evangelical or Tea Party GOP Catholic/ Modrt /Secular GOP (ref:econbatr)

17 17 Q.83 Now I am going to read something that could happen, and I want you to tell me how you would respond. Last week, the Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officers for criminally hacking into the computer systems of the Democratic Party and Clinton campaign. Imagine next month the Special Counsel indicts core leaders of the Trump campaign, including its former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and Donald Trump, Jr., for criminally cooperating with the Russians. Imagine Counsel Mueller also issues a final report to Congress that concludes that President Trump obstructed justice by firing the FBI Director, attacking federal investigators and pushing House allies to end all investigations into Russian interference. Which of the following phrases best captures your reaction to hearing that statement? There should be accountability It is time to move on I'm outraged Fake news! What an embarrassment Stop disrespecting the President (Something else) (Don't know/refused) (ref:gopmsga) Q.84 (REPUBLICANS) Now I am going to read you something else and I want to hear what your response would be. During the 2016 GOP primary, a Fox News anchor questioned Donald Trump about calling women fat pigs, dogs, and slobs, and candidate Trump mocked the appearance of the one woman candidate in the GOP primary. Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, payed-off a series of women alleging affairs with Trump, including secretly paying $150,000 to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the weeks before the 2016 election. Which of the following phrases best captures your reaction to hearing this news? It is time to move on There should be accountability Fake news! What an embarrassment Stop disrespecting the President I'm outraged (Something else) (Don't know/refused) (ref:gopmsgb)

18 18 Q.85 (REPUBLICANS) Now let me ask you again, how interested are you in the November elections for U.S. Congress and other state and local offices? Please rate your interest from one to ten, with one meaning that you have no interest in this election and ten meaning that you are extremely interested (Don't know/refused) (Don't know/refused) Mean (ref:intrst2) Q.86 (REPUBLICANS) Thinking again about the election for Congress in your district in November, will you vote for -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democratic candidate Lean Democratic candidate Republican candidate Lean Republican candidate (Other candidate) (Don't know) (Will not vote) (Refused) Total Democratic candidate Total Republican candidate Total (Other candidate) (ref:gen18vt2)

19 19 Q.88 (REPUBLICANS) Thinking again about the election for President in 2020, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, the Democratic candidate, or Third Party Independent candidate John Kasich? Democratic Candidate Lean Democratic Candidate Republican Donald Trump Lean Republican Donald Trump Independent John Kasich Lean Independent John Kasich (Other candidate) Lean (Other candidate) (Undecided) (Will not vote) (Refused) Total Democratic Candidate Total Republican Donald Trump Total Independent John Kasich Total (Other candidate) (ref:prs20vt2) Q.90 Now I would like to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes. Thinking in political terms, would you say that you are Conservative, Moderate, or Liberal? Liberal Moderate Conservative (Don't know/refused) (ref:ideo1) [274 Respondents] Q.91 (ASK ONLY IF NAME OFF FILE) Many people weren't able to vote in the 2016 election for President between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. How about you? Were you able to vote in 2016, or for some reason were you unable to vote? Voted Did not vote Not registered/ineligible/too young (Refused) (Can't remember/ don't know) (ref:vote16)

20 20 [274 Respondents] Q.92 (ASK ONLY IF NAME OFF FILE) As you may know, there was an election in 2014 for Congress and other offices. Many people weren't able to vote. How about you? Were you able to vote in 2014, or for some reason were you unable to vote? Voted Did not vote Not registered/ineligible/too young (Refused) (Can't remember/don't know) (ref:vote14) [274 Respondents] Q.93 (ASK ONLY IF NAME OFF FILE) Many people weren't able to vote in the 2012 election for President between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. How about you? Were you able to vote in 2012, or for some reason were you unable to vote? Voted Did not vote Not registered in 2012/Ineligible/too young (Can't remember/don't know) (Refused) (ref:vote12) [274 Respondents] Q.94 (ASK ONLY IF NAME OFF FILE) As you may know, there was an election in 2010 for Congress and other offices. Many people weren't able to vote. How about you? Were you able to vote in 2010, or for some reason were you unable to vote? Voted Did not vote Not registered/ineligible/too young (Refused) (Can't remember/don't know) (ref:vote10)

21 21 Q.95 Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Strong supporter Not so strong supporter Not a supporter (Don't know/refused) Total Supporter (ref:teasupp) [821 Respondents] Q.96 (ASK IF VOTED IN 2016) In the 2016 election for President, did you vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton Republican Donald Trump (Gary Johnson) (Jill Stein) (Other) (Don't know/refused) (Did not vote in 2016) (ref:vote2016) [709 Respondents] Q.97 (ASK IF VOTED IN 2012) In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama Republican Mitt Romney (Gary Johnson) (Jill Stein) (Virgil Goode) (Other) (Don't know/refused) (Did not vote in 2012) (ref:vote2012)

22 22 Q.98 What racial or ethnic group best describes you? White African-American or Black Hispanic or Latino Native American Asian (Other) (Don't know/refused) (ref:racethn) Q.100 Let me ask a question about religion. Which one of these best describes yourself? Observant Catholic Non-observant Catholic Evangelical Christian Non-evangelical Protestant Jewish Muslim No religious affiliation (Other) (Don't know/refused) Total Catholic Total Non Catholic Total Christian (ref:relig) Q.3 Respondent Gender Male Female (ref:gender)

23 23 Q.7 In what year were you born? and over (No answer) Millennial Gen X Baby Boomer Silent/Greatest (ref:age) Q.8 What is the last year of schooling that you have completed? 1-11th grade High School graduate Non-college post H.S Some college College graduate Post-graduate school (Don't know/refused) (ref:educ) Q.9 Are you married, single, living with a partner, separated, divorced, or widowed? Married Single Separated/Divorced Widowed Living with a partner (Don't know/refused) (ref:marital)