National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1984 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report January 11-14, 2019 P1 Question Response Frequency Percentage Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 74 37% Wrong Track % Q172 Q172NET P3 POL1_1 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve 368 9% Somewhat Disapprove 229 2% Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 90 5% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues like taxes, wages, jobs, % unemployment, and spending Security Issues like terrorism, foreign policy, and 43 22% border security Health Care Issues like the 2010 health care law, 326 6% Medicaid, other challenges Seniors Issues like Medicare and Social Security 306 5% Women s Issues like birth control, abortion, and equal 86 4% pay Education Issues like school standards, class sizes, 42 7% school choice, and student loans Energy Issues like carbon emissions, cost of 6 3% electricity/gasoline, or renewables Other: 05 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 1

2 POL1_4 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress 70 35% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % POL1_5 POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 POL1_11 POL1_12 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 69 35% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Page 2

3 POL2_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 229 2% Should not be done 95 5% Don t know / No opinion 2 4 % POL2_4 POL2_5 POL2_6 POL2_7 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to address climate change A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 38 9% Should not be done 249 3% Don t know / No opinion 266 3% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reduce economic inequality A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 377 9% Should not be done 253 3% Don t know / No opinion 287 4% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 336 7% Should not be done 89 4% Don t know / No opinion 28 4% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Beginning impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office A top priority 50 25% An important, but lower priority 299 5% Not too important a priority 204 0% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion % Page 3

4 POL2_8 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority 63 32% An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 297 5% Should not be done 35 7% Don t know / No opinion 245 2% POL2_9 POL2_10 POL2_11 POL2_12 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 358 8% Not too important a priority 24 2% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 350 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 33 7% Should not be done 320 6% Don t know / No opinion 300 5% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority 74 37% An important, but lower priority 70 35% Not too important a priority 259 3% Should not be done 88 4% Don t know / No opinion 94 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 253 3% Should not be done % Don t know / No opinion 274 4% Page 4

5 POL3 From the list of potential candidates below, who would you vote for if the Democratic primary for the 2020 presidential election were held today? John Kerry 20 % Joe Biden 385 9% Bernie Sanders 240 2% Elizabeth Warren 03 5% Beto O Rourke 76 4% Cory Booker 23 % Kamala Harris 66 3% Sherrod Brown 2 % Amy Klobuchar 7 % Kirsten Gillibrand % Eric Holder 8 0% John Delaney % Julian Castro 7 0% Jay Inslee 3 0% Eric Garcetti 0% Steve Bullock 8 0% Howard Schultz 7 0% Michael Bloomberg 44 2% John Hickenlooper 9 0% Terry McAuliffe 4 0% Other 28 6% Don t Know / No Opinion % POL4 POL5_1 If the 2020 presidential election were held today, would you de nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump, probably vote for someone else or de nitely vote for someone else? De nitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump % Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump 248 2% Probably vote for someone else 3 7% De nitely vote for someone else % Would not vote 52 3% Don t know / No opinion 59 8% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? The federal government partially shutting down starting on December 22, 2018 A lot % Some % Not much 96 0% Nothing at all 70 4% Don t know / No opinion 30 7% Page 5

6 POL5_4 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? President Trump s visit to the Texas border on January 10, 2019 A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all 258 3% Don t know / No opinion 2 6 % POL5_5 POL5_6 POL6 POL7 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? President Trump s prime-time Oval Office address about the U.S.-Mexico border on January 8, 2019 A lot % Some 67 34% Not much % Nothing at all 20 0% Don t know / No opinion 95 0% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Special counsel Robert Mueller accusing Paul Manafort, Trump s former campaign chairman, of sharing political polling data with a business associate with ties to Russian intelligence officers during the 2016 presidential campaign. A lot % Some % Not much % Nothing at all 205 0% Don t know / No opinion 244 2% Do you support or oppose a Medicare for All health care system, where all Americans would get their health insurance from the government? Strongly support % Somewhat support % Somewhat oppose 224 % Strongly oppose 364 8% Don t know / No opinion 285 4% When it comes to the 2010 Affordable Care Act, sometimes referred to as Obamacare, do you think it should be: Expanded % Kept as is 88 9% Repealed in part 374 9% Repealed completely % Don t know / No opinion 292 5% Page 6

7 POL8 How familiar would you say you are with the situation in Washington D.C. that caused the government shutdown? Very familiar % Somewhat familiar % Not too familiar 264 3% Not familiar at all 85 9% POL9 POL10 POL11 POL12 POL13 How well would you say you understand the situation in Washington D.C. that caused the government shutdown? Very well % Somewhat well % Not too well 325 6% Not well at all 96 0% Who would you say is mostly to blame for the government shutdown? Republicans in Congress 96 5% Democrats in Congress % President Trump % Don t know / No opinion 256 3% Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right? The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal % government is a crisis The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal % government is a problem The ongoing shutdown of parts of the federal 98 0% government is not a crisis or a problem Don t know / No opinion 220 % To what extent has the recent partial government shutdown impacted you and your family? A lot 23 6% Some 368 9% Not much % Not at all % Don t know / No opinion 93 0% As you may know, the recent partial government shutdown may impact the pay of federal workers across the United States. How concerned are you, if at all, about federal workers not receiving pay for the duration of the shutdown? Very concerned 96 48% Somewhat concerned % Not too concerned 82 9% Not concerned at all 39 7% Don t know / No opinion 68 8% Page 7

8 POL14 Do you support or oppose the construction of a border wall along the United States Mexico border? Strongly support 59 30% Somewhat support 29 5% Somewhat oppose 80 9% Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion 62 8% POL15 POL16 POL17 POL18 Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right? (N=995) The United States is facing a crisis of illegal immigration % across the United States Mexico border The United States is facing a problem with illegal % immigration across the United States Mexico border, but not a crisis The United States is not facing a problem or crisis with 68 7% illegal immigration from Mexico Don t know / No opinion 78 8% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right? (N=989) The United States is facing a crisis of illegal immigration % across the United States Mexico border The United States is not facing a crisis with illegal % immigration from Mexico Don t know / No opinion 33 3% As you may know, President Trump has considered declaring a national emergency at the U.S. Mexico border. By doing this, he would be able to reallocate military spending to build a structure at the border for national defense purposes. Based on what you know now, do you support or oppose the declaration of a national emergency at the U.S. Mexico border? Strongly support % Somewhat support 325 6% Somewhat oppose 203 0% Strongly oppose % Don t know / No opinion 242 2% If President Trump were to declare a national emergency at the U.S. Mexico border in order to fund building a structure at the border, do you think that would be an abuse of power? Yes, it is an abuse of power % No, it is not an abuse of power % Don t know / No opinion 276 4% Page 8

9 POL19 Which of the following comes closest to your views, even if none are exactly right? A wall at the U.S. Mexico border should only be % constructed if Congress agrees to pay for it. A wall at the U.S. Mexico border should only be % constructed if Mexico agrees to pay for it. A wall at the U.S. Mexico border should only be 339 7% constructed if President Trump reallocates spending by declaring a national emergency to pay for it. Don t know / No opinion % POL20 POL21 POLx_1 POLx_2 As you may know, the rst step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. Do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings % No, Congress should not begin impeachment % proceedings Don t know / No opinion 276 4% And, if you had to pick one, which of the following is the main reason you believe Congress should begin impeachment proceedings? President Trump committed an impeachable offense, % such as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. President Trump has proven he is un t to serve and % should be removed from office, regardless of whether he committed an impeachable offense or not. Don t know / No opinion % Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. Mitch McConnell Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 383 9% Page 9

10 POLx_3 Favorability for Charles Schumer Total Favorable 52 26% Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % POLx_4 POLx_5 POLx_6 POLx_7 POLx_8 POLx_9 POLx_10 POLx_11 Favorability for Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 39 20% Favorability for Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 22 6% Favorability for Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 290 5% Favorability for Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 270 4% Favorability for Robert Mueller Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for Kevin McCarthy Favorability for Joe Biden Total Favorable 286 4% Total Unfavorable 356 8% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 66 33% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 334 7% Favorability for Bernie Sanders Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 3 9 6% Page 10

11 POLx_12 Favorability for Elizabeth Warren Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % POLx_13 POLx_14 POLx_15 POLx_16 POLx_17 Favorability for Beto O Rourke Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 4 2 % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 26 57% Favorability for Kamala Harris Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 365 8% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 7 59% Favorability for Sherrod Brown Total Favorable 275 4% Total Unfavorable 25 3% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for Amy Klobuchar Total Favorable 305 5% Total Unfavorable 249 3% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for Cory Booker Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 27 57% POLx_18 Favorability for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 96 48% Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 11

12 Respondent Demographics Summary Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 885 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 287 4% PID/Gender: Dem Women 386 9% PID/Gender: Ind Men 324 6% PID/Gender: Ind Women 333 7% PID/Gender: Rep Men 3 8 6% PID/Gender: Rep Women 337 7% xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) % Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 755 xeduc3 Educ: < College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 267 3% Continued on next page Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #190125, January, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 92 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 28 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic 37 9% Relig: Something Else 74 9% N 060 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 57 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 308 6% N 060 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian 2 5 % N 274 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 47 7% Employ: Self-Employed 76 9% Employ: Homemaker 07 5% Employ: Student 8 4% Employ: Retired % Employ: Unemployed 60 8% Employ: Other 73 9% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes 358 8% Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 13

14 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction 74 37% RD/WT: Wrong Track % Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 894 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve 368 9% Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 229 2% Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 894 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 43 22% #1 Issue: Health Care 326 6% #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 306 5% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 86 4% #1 Issue: Education 42 7% #1 Issue: Energy 6 3% #1 Issue: Other 05 5% xsubvote18o 2018 House Vote: Democrat % 2018 House Vote: Republican % 2018 House Vote: Someone else 07 5% 2018 House Vote: Didnt Vote 384 9% N 979 xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump % 2016 Vote: Someone else 88 9% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote % N 979 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 96 5% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % Continued on next page Page 14

15 National Tracking Poll #190125, January, 2019 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 354 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South 74 37% 4-Region: West % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 15

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