National Tracking Poll

Transcription

1 National Tracking Poll Project: N Size: 1952 Registered Voters Margin of Error: ± 2% Topline Report November 07-09, 2018 Question Response Frequency Percentage dempol1 Did you vote in the 2018 midterm election? Yes, I voted % No, I did not vote % P1 P3 Q172 Q172NET POL1_1 Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction % Wrong Track 38 58% Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? Economic Issues % Security Issues 35 8% Health Care Issues % Senior s Issues 266 4% Women s Issues 0 5% Education Issues 48 8% Energy Issues 59 3% Other 99 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Strongly Approve % Somewhat Approve % Somewhat Disapprove 22 % Strongly Disapprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 96 5% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President? Total Approve % Total Dissaprove % Don t Know / No Opinion 96 5% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The economy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 334 7% Page 1

2 POL1_2 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Jobs Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 342 8% POL1_3 POL1_4 POL1_5 POL1_6 POL1_7 POL1_8 POL1_9 POL1_10 Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Health care Democrats in Congress 94 48% Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 322 7% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Immigration Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 3 8 6% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? The environment Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress 55 28% Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Energy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Education Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? National security Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 330 7% Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Sexual harassment and misconduct in the workplace Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion % Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues? Gun policy Democrats in Congress % Republicans in Congress % Don t Know / No Opinion 350 8% Page 2

3 POL2_1 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a healthcare reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority 49 25% Not too important a priority 45 7% Should not be done 07 5% Don t know/no opinion 65 8% POL2_2 POL2_3 POL2_4 POL2_5 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Investigating some of President Trumps campaign officials for alleged connections or contacts with the Russian government during the 2016 elections A top priority % An important, but lower priority 34 7% Not too important a priority 302 5% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 66 8% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reforming entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security A top priority % An important, but lower priority 5 26% Not too important a priority 78 9% Should not be done 245 3% Don t know/no opinion 84 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an infrastructure spending bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 226 2% Should not be done 40 2% Don t know/no opinion 276 4% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill to reform regulations on banks and nancial services companies A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 364 9% Should not be done 89 5% Don t know/no opinion 232 2% Page 3

4 POL2_6 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing an immigration reform bill A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 254 3% Should not be done 05 5% Don t know/no opinion 88 0% POL2_7 POL2_8 POL2_9 POL2_10 How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Constructing a wall along the U.S. / Mexico border A top priority % An important, but lower priority 333 7% Not too important a priority 255 3% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 30 7% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing a bill that grants young people who were brought to the United States illegally when they were children, often with their parents, protection from deportation A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 288 5% Should not be done 358 8% Don t know/no opinion 9 0% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Reducing the federal budget de cit A top priority % An important, but lower priority % Not too important a priority 28 7% Should not be done 29 % Don t know/no opinion 74 9% How important of a priority should each of the following be for Congress? Passing legislation placing additional restrictions on gun ownership A top priority 72 37% An important, but lower priority 370 9% Not too important a priority 25 3% Should not be done % Don t know/no opinion 42 7% Page 4

5 POL3_1 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Democrats winning the majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections A lot % Some % Not much 208 % Nothing at all 77 9% POL3_2 POL3_3 POL4 POL5 POL6 How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Republicans keeping the majority in the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections A lot % Some 60 3 % Not much 25 3% Nothing at all 98 0% How much have you seen, read or heard about each of the following? Jeff Sessions resigning his position as Attorney General. A lot % Some 6 3 % Not much 349 8% Nothing at all 3 4 6% Which of the following best describes how you feel about Democrats winning the majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections? Angry 34 7% Dissatis ed, but not angry % Satis ed % Excited % Don t Know/No Opinion 229 2% Which of the following best describes how you feel about Republicans keeping the majority in the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections? Angry 230 2% Dissatis ed, but not angry % Satis ed % Excited 362 9% Don t Know/No Opinion 238 2% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view regarding Democrats winning the majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, even if none are exactly right? It is a good thing for the country % It is neither a good nor bad thing for the country 356 8% It is a bad thing for the country % Don t Know/No Opinion 26 3% Page 5

6 POL7 Which of the following statements comes closest to your view regarding Republicans keeping the majority in the Senate in the 2018 midterm elections, even if none are exactly right? It is a good thing for the country % It is neither a good nor bad thing for the country % It is a bad thing for the country % Don t Know/No Opinion 255 3% POL8 POL9 POL10 POL11 Do you think Congress will work better, about the same, or worse with Democrats controlling the House of Representatives and Republicans controlling the Senate? Better % About the same % Worse % Don t Know/No Opinion 309 6% As you may know, the rst step toward removing a president from office is impeachment. When Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in January, do you believe Congress should or should not begin impeachment proceedings to remove President Trump from office? Yes, Congress should begin impeachment proceedings % No, Congress should not begin impeachment % proceedings Don t Know/No Opinion 329 7% As you may know, Nancy Pelosi is the Minority Leader for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives and was formerly the Speaker of the House. When Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in January, do you believe Nancy Pelosi should: Be made Speaker of the House % Not be made Speaker of the House % Don t Know/No Opinion % If your member of Congress voted for Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House, would you be more or less likely to vote for that person in 2020, or would it not make much difference either way? Much more likely 57 8% Somewhat more likely 202 0% Somewhat less likely 202 0% Much less likely % No difference either way % Don t Know/No Opinion 326 7% Page 6

7 POL12 Of the following, who is your rst choice to be the 2020 Democratic nominee for President? (N=733) Joe Biden 92 26% Bernie Sanders 38 9% Elizabeth Warren 39 5% Beto ORourke 59 8% Cory Booker 24 3% Kamala Harris 26 4% Sherrod Brown 5 % Amy Klobuchar 6 % Kirsten Gillibrand 6 % Eric Holder 3 0% Andrew Cuomo % John Delaney 2 0% Deval Patrick 2 0% Julin Castro 6 % Gavin Newsom 8 % Eric Garcetti 4 % Michael Avenatti 2 0% Steve Bullock 7 % Howard Schultz 4 % Michael Bloomberg 5 2% Other 2 3% Don t Know/No Opinion 53 2 % Page 7

8 POL13 And of the following, who is your second choice to be the 2020 Democratic nominee for President? (N=733) Joe Biden 48 20% Bernie Sanders 9 6% Elizabeth Warren 65 9% Beto O Rourke 59 8% Cory Booker 42 6% Kamala Harris 25 3% Sherrod Brown 6 % Amy Klobuchar 9 % Kirsten Gillibrand 9 3% Eric Holder 9 % Andrew Cuomo 7 2% John Delaney 6 % Julian Castro 8 % Gavin Newsom 7 % Eric Garcetti 6 % Michael Avenatti 7 % Steve Bullock 6 % Howard Schultz 8 % Michael Bloomberg 25 3% Other 6 8% Don t Know/No Opinion 80 % indpresapp_4 indpresapp_5 indpresapp_6 Next we will look at a list of names that are active in politics. It is a long list, please take the time to go through the list carefully and give an individual answer for each name below. For each person, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable, Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable opinion of each. If you have heard of the person, but do not have an opinion, please mark Heard Of, No Opinion. If you have not heard of the person, please mark Never Heard Of. : Mitch McConnell Favorability for: Paul Ryan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Nancy Pelosi Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 47 24% Page 8

9 indpresapp_7 Favorability for: Charles Schumer Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_8 indpresapp_9 indpresapp_10 indpresapp_11 indpresapp_12 indpresapp_13 indpresapp_14 indpresapp_15 Favorability for: Mike Pence Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Donald Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 02 5% Favorability for: Republicans in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 232 2% Favorability for: Democrats in Congress Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 246 3% Favorability for: Melania Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 339 7% Favorability for: Ivanka Trump Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Favorability for: Jared Kushner Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of 83 43% Favorability for: Kellyanne Conway Total Favorable 47 24% Total Unfavorable 67 34% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Page 9

10 indpresapp_16 Favorability for: Jeff Sessions Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_17 indpresapp_18 Favorability for: Robert Mueller Favorability for: Jim Jordan Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable 57 29% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Total Favorable 222 % Total Unfavorable 252 3% Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % indpresapp_19 Favorability for: Beto O Rourke Total Favorable % Total Unfavorable % Heard Of, No Opinion / Never Heard Of % Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated for registered voters with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 10

11 National Tracking Poll #181111, November, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdemall Registered Voters % xdemgender Gender: Male % Gender: Female % age5 Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % Age: % demagegeneration Generation Z: % Millennial: Age % Generation X: Age % Boomers: Age % N 8 9 xpid3 PID: Dem (no lean) % PID: Ind (no lean) % PID: Rep (no lean) % xpidgender PID/Gender: Dem Men 3 6 6% PID/Gender: Dem Women % PID/Gender: Ind Men 243 2% PID/Gender: Ind Women 20 0% PID/Gender: Rep Men 355 8% PID/Gender: Rep Women % xdemideo3 Ideo: Liberal (1-3) % Ideo: Moderate (4) 379 9% Ideo: Conservative (5-7) % N 730 xeduc3 Educ: College % Educ: Bachelors degree % Educ: Post-grad 263 3% Continued on next page Page 11

12 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xdeminc3 Income: Under 50k % Income: 50k-100k % Income: 100k % xdemwhite Ethnicity: White % xdemhispbin Ethnicity: Hispanic 89 0% demblackbin Ethnicity: Afr. Am % demraceother Ethnicity: Other 26 6% xrelnet Relig: Protestant % Relig: Roman Catholic % Relig: Something Else 79 9% N 027 xreligion1 Relig: Jewish 54 3% xreligion2 Relig: Evangelical % Relig: Non-Evang. Catholics 320 6% N 027 xreligion3 Relig: All Christian % Relig: All Non-Christian 249 3% N 277 xdemusr Community: Urban % Community: Suburban % Community: Rural % xdememploy Employ: Private Sector % Employ: Government 49 8% Employ: Self-Employed 73 9% Employ: Homemaker 32 7% Employ: Student 63 3% Employ: Retired 47 24% Employ: Unemployed 75 9% Employ: Other 76 9% xdemmilhh1 Military HH: Yes % Military HH: No % Continued on next page Page 12

13 National Tracking Poll #181111, November, 2018 Respondent Demographics Summary Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Demographic Group Frequency Percentage xnr1 RD/WT: Right Direction % RD/WT: Wrong Track 38 58% Trump_Approve Trump Job Approve % Trump Job Disapprove % N 856 Trump_Approve2 Trump Job Strongly Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Approve % Trump Job Somewhat Disapprove 22 % Trump Job Strongly Disapprove % N 856 xnr3 #1 Issue: Economy % #1 Issue: Security 35 8% #1 Issue: Health Care % #1 Issue: Medicare / Social Security 266 4% #1 Issue: Women s Issues 0 5% #1 Issue: Education 48 8% #1 Issue: Energy 59 3% #1 Issue: Other 99 5% xsubvote16o 2016 Vote: Hillary Clinton % 2016 Vote: Donald Trump 74 38% 2016 Vote: Someone else 6 8% 2016 Vote: Didnt Vote 37 9% N 948 xsubvote14o Voted in 2014: Yes % Voted in 2014: No % xsubvote12o 2012 Vote: Barack Obama % 2012 Vote: Mitt Romney % 2012 Vote: Other 72 4% 2012 Vote: Didn t Vote % N 950 xreg4 4-Region: Northeast 348 8% 4-Region: Midwest % 4-Region: South % 4-Region: West % Continued on next page Page 13

14 Summary Statistics of Survey Respondent Demographics Morning Consult Respondent Demographics Summary Demographic Group Frequency Percentage Trump_Fav Favorable of Trump % Unfavorable of Trump % N 850 Trump_Fav_FULL Very Favorable of Trump % Somewhat Favorable of Trump 373 9% Somewhat Unfavorable of Trump 72 9% Very Unfavorable of Trump % N 850 Note: Group proportions may total to larger than one-hundred percent due to rounding. All statistics are calculated with demographic post-strati cation weights applied. Page 14

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