HART/McINTURFF Study # page 1. Interviews: 1000 Registered Voters, including 300 cell phone only respondents Date: October 17-20, 2012

Transcription

1 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 1 Interviews: 1000 Registered Voters, including 300 cell phone only respondents Date: October 17-20, 2012 Study # Male 52 Female Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated. The margin of error for 1000 interviews among Registered Voters (RV) is ±3.10% The margin of error for 816interviews among Likely Voters (LV) is ±3.43% Unless otherwise noted by a +, all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults. Q2a For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are? (IF REFUSED, ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST.) and over... 6 Not sure/refused... - Q2b To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background?+ Yes, Hispanic... 8 No, not Hispanic Not sure/refused... 1 Q2c And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else?+ White Black Asian... 2 Other... 4 Hispanic (VOL)... 5 Not sure/refused... 3

2 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 2 Q3 All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track? High Low 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 9/01 10/17-20/08+ Headed in the right direction Off on the wrong track Mixed (VOL) Not sure /12 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/ /11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/11 1/ /10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-11/10 3/ /23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/09 1/

3 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 3 Q4 In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? High Low 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 3/12 4/09 8/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure /12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/11 2/ /11 12/10 11/10 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/20-23/10 5/6-11/ /10 1/23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 8/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/

4 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 4 Q5 Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy? High Low 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 5/12 4/12 2/09 8/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure /12 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/11 7/11 6/11 5/11 4/ /11 1/11 12/10 11/10 10/14-18/10+ 9/10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-11/ /10 1/23-25/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/09 2/ Q6 Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy? 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 5/12 1/12 11/11 8/11 6/11 Approve Disapprove Not sure /11 4/11 11/10 1/10 12/09 10/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 4/

5 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 5 I d like to ask you a question about the November 2012 presidential election Q7 Please tell me how interested you are in November's elections, using a scale from one to ten, on which a "ten" means that you are very interested in November's elections and a "one" means that you are not at all interested. You may choose any number from one to ten. (IF "NOT SURE," RECORD AS "DK.") 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 10, very interested , not at all interested Cannot rate /4-5/08+ 9/19-22/08+ 9/6-8/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 4/08+ 3/08+ 1/08+ 12/07+ 11/ /04+ 9/04+ 8/ Q8 How much difference do you think it will make in the lives of you and your family who wins the upcoming presidential election--a great deal, quite a bit, just some, or very little? 10/12+ 10/04+ 10/96+ 7/96 5/92 A great deal of difference Quite a bit of difference Just some difference Very little difference Not sure

6 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 6 Q9 Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures and groups and I'd like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT BARACK OBAMA) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral Barack Obama September 26-30, September 12-16, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April February January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, January 10-14, December October September July June April February January

7 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 7 Q9 (Cont d) Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't Know Name/ Positive Positive Neutral Negative Negative Not Sure December October 17-20, October 4-5, September 19-22, September 6-8, Barack Obama High February Presidential Term Low August All-time Obama Low October 28-30, NBC-WSJ All-time Presidential Tracking High/Low within Presidential Term High March 1991 (George H.W. Bush) Low October 17-20, (George W. Bush) Mitt Romney September 26-30, September 12-16, August July June May April March January December November October August June February December 9-13, September March July April January December November September June March December

8 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 8 Q9 (Cont d) Very Positive Somewhat Positive Somewhat Negative Very Negative Don't Know Name/ Not Sure Neutral The Democratic Party September 26-30, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, January 10-14, December October September July June April

9 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 9 The Democratic Party (cont'd) Don't Know Very Positive Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative Name/ Not Sure February December October 17-20, October 4-5, September 19-22, September 6-8, August July June April March 7-10, January November September July January October 28-30, July January May February October High January Low July The Republican Party September 26-30, August July June May April March January December November October August June May April January December November October 28-30, October 14-18, September August 26-30, August 5-9, June May 20-23, May 6-11, March January 23-25, January 10-14,

10 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 10 Q9 (cont'd) Don't Know Very Positive Somewhat Positive Neutral Somewhat Negative Very Negative Name/ Not Sure December October September July June April February December October 17-20, October 4-5, September 19-22, September 6-8, August July June April March 7-10, January November September July January Oct 28-30, July January May February October High December Low August 5-9, Joe Biden September 26-30, August July May December August 26-30, January 10-14, July January December October 17-20, October 4-5, September 19-22, September 6-8, September December June Paul Ryan September 26-30, August June

11 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 11 SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES BY D/S (POSITIVE NEGATIVE) TOTAL TOTAL POSITIVE NEGATIVE D/S Barack Obama The Democratic Party Paul Ryan Mitt Romney Joe Biden The Republican Party Now, thinking again about this November s elections Q10 I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?+ Absolutely certain to vote Will probably vote... 5 Chances Chances less than Already voted (VOL)... 4 Not sure... -

12 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 12 Q11 What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections -- (ROTATE:) a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats? 10/12+ 30/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 12/11+ Republican-controlled Congress Democrat-controlled Congress Not sure /11+ 10/11+ 8/11+ 6/11+ 10/10+ 9/10+ 8/26-30/10+ 8/5-9/10+ 6/10+ 5/20-23/ /6-11/10+ 3/10+ 1/23-25/10+ 1/10-14/10+ 12/09+ 10/09+ 9/09+ 7/09+ 4/09+ 11/ /08+ 9/08+ 8/08+ 7/08+ 6/08+ 4/08+ 3/08+ 11/07+ 9/07+ 10/ /06+ 7/06+ 6/06+ 4/06+ 3/06+ 1/06+ 12/05+ 11/05+ 10/05+ 7/ /05+ 10/04+ 9/04+ 6/04+ 5/04+ 3/04+ 1/04 12/13/03 10/02+ 9/ /02 6/02 1/02 12/01 12/99 10/99 7/99 6/99 4/99 3/ /98+ 9/98 7/98 6/98 2/98 1/98 12/97 9/97 7/97 4/

13 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 13 Q12 In the next election for U.S. Congress, do you feel that your representative deserves to be reelected, or do you think that it is time to give a new person a chance? 10/12+ 8/12+ 3/12+ 8/11+ 10/28-30/10+ 8/26-30/10+ 6/10+ 1/10-14/10+ Deserves to be reelected Give new person a chance Not sure /09+ 10/09+ 9/09+ 7/08+ 11/07+ 6/07+ 10/13-16/ /30-10/2/06+ 9/8-11/06+ 7/06+ 6/06+ 3/06+ 1/06+ 12/ /05+ 5/05+ 10/04+ 10/02+ 9/02 10/00+ 9/00+ 6/ /99 10/98+ 12/97+ 10/94+ 9/94 5/94 1/94 10/ /93 7/93 10/92+ 9/92+ 7/92+ 4/92+ 2/92+ 1/

14 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 14 Q13 If the next election for president were held today, with (ROTATE:) Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan as the Republican candidates, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the Democratic candidates, for whom would you vote? 10/12 30/12 9/12-16/12 8/12 RV+ LV++ RV+ LV++ RV+ LV++ RV+ Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan Barack Obama and Joe Biden Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure Results shown reflect responses among likely voters. Trial Heat Trend Data 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ 1/12+ 12/11+ 11/11+ Mitt Romney Barack Obama Depends (VOL) Neither/other (VOL) Not sure /11+ 8/11+ 6/11+ 2/11+ 12/10 1/08 11/07 9/

15 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 15 (ASKED ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO MAKE A CHOICE IN Q13) Q14 Would you definitely vote for (Romney and Ryan/Obama and Biden), probably vote for (Romney and Ryan/Obama and Biden) but are still thinking about it, or are you just leaning toward voting for (Romney and Ryan/Obama and Biden)? RESULTS SHOWN AMONG VOTERS WHO CHOSE EACH CANDIDATE Romney Voters+ 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ Definitely vote for candidate Probably vote for candidate Just leaning toward voting for candidate Not sure Obama Voters+ 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ Definitely vote for candidate Probably vote for candidate Just leaning toward voting for candidate Not sure RESULTS SHOWN OFF BASE OF ALL REGISTERED VOTERS Romney Voters+ 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ Definitely vote for candidate Probably vote for candidate Just leaning toward voting for candidate Not sure TOTAL VOTE (Q13) Obama Voters+ 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ Definitely vote for candidate Probably vote for candidate Just leaning toward voting for candidate Not sure TOTAL VOTE (Q13)

16 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 16 Q15 Now, whether or not you plan to vote for him, if (READ ITEM) were to become the next president, how comfortable are you with him as president (ROTATE:) very comfortable, fairly comfortable, not really comfortable, or not at all comfortable? (ROTATE) Comfortable Not Really Not At All Not Sure Very Fairly Barack Obama +* September 26-30, Mitt Romney +* September 26-30, * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). Comfortable Not Really Not At All Not Sure Very Fairly Barack Obama September August John McCain September August Thinking some more about the November election Q16 Which of the following best describes your preference for the outcome of this year's elections -- (ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM/BOTTOM TO TOP:) Mitt Romney winning the presidency with a Congress controlled by Republicans, Mitt Romney winning the presidency with a Congress controlled by Democrats, Barack Obama winning reelection with a Congress controlled by Republicans, or Barack Obama winning reelection with a Congress controlled by Democrats?+ Romney/Republican-controlled Congress Romney/Democratic-controlled Congress... 3 Obama/Republican-controlled Congress... 5 Obama/Democratic-controlled Congress Not sure... 7 (ASKED OF 417 VOTERS LIVING IN STATES WHERE EARLY VOTING HAS ALREADY STARTED) Q17 Some people we have spoken with have already filled out their ballot for the Federal election for President, Senate, Congress and statewide offices being held next month Have you already cast your ballot in the election by voting by mail or in person at an early polling location? (DO NOT READ CHOICES:) (IF NOT YET VOTED, THEN ASK:) And do you plan to vote early - either by mail or in person - or will you vote at the polls on Election Day?+ All Voters Voters in Early Voting States Total Already Voted Early Yes, voted by mail Yes, voted early in person No, plan to vote early by mail No, plan to vote early in person No, will vote at the polls on Election Day Don t plan on voting (VOL) Not sure Not in a State that allows early voting or early voting yet n/a

17 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 17 Q18 Now, which of the following best describes how you would feel if (READ ITEM) were elected president in November--optimistic and confident that he would do a good job, satisfied and hopeful that he would do a good job, uncertain and wondering whether he would do a good job, or pessimistic and worried that he would do a bad job? Optimistic And Confident Satisfied And Hopeful Uncertain And Wondering Pessimistic And Worried Barack Obama August April August Mitt Romney August April August Not Sure Optimistic Satisfied Uncertain Pessimistic Not Sure John McCain October Barack Obama October Optimistic Satisfied Uncertain Pessimistic Not Sure George W. Bush October John Kerry October Optimistic Satisfied Uncertain Pessimistic Not Sure George W. Bush October Al Gore October Optimistic Satisfied Uncertain Pessimistic Not Sure Bob Dole October September Bill Clinton October September

18 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 18 Talking some more about the candidates (ROTATE Q19 & Q20) Q19 Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Mitt Romney and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him? If you have not seen, read, or heard anything in the past couple of weeks please just say so. 10/12+ 30/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure /19-22/08+ 9/6-8/08+ 8/08+ 20/08+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure George W. Bush 2004 Trend 10/29- John McCain 2008 Trend 10/17-10/16-18/ /04++ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure Results shown reflect responses among likely voters ONLY.

19 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 19 Q20 Has what you have you seen, read, or heard in the past couple of weeks about Barack Obama and his campaign for president given you a more favorable impression of him or a less favorable impression of him? If you have not seen, read, or heard anything in the past couple of weeks please just say so. 10/12+ 30/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure /19-22/08+ 9/6-8/08+ 8/08+ 20/08+ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure John Kerry 2004 Trend 10/29- Barack Obama 2008 Trend 10/17-10/16-18/ /04++ Yes, Have Seen/Heard/Read Something More favorable Less favorable Has made no difference (VOL) No, Have Not Seen/Heard/Read Anything Not Sure Results shown reflect responses among likely voters ONLY. Q21 Have the presidential debates made you more likely to support Mitt Romney, more likely to support Barack Obama, or have they not made a difference in how you are going to vote?+ More likely to support Mitt Romney More likely to support Barack Obama Made no difference Not sure... 2 October 2004 Trend + More likely to support George W. Bush More likely to support John Kerry Made no difference Not sure... 2 October 2000 Trend + More likely to support George W. Bush More likely to support Al Gore Made no difference Not sure... 2

20 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 20 Q22 From what you have seen or heard, do you feel that either of the candidates for president is running a negative campaign? (IF YES, ASK:) Which candidate do you think is running a negative campaign (ROTATE:) Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? 10/12+* 8/12+ 7/12+ Yes, Mitt Romney is running a negative campaign Yes, Barack Obama is running a negative campaign Yes, both are running negative campaigns (VOL) No, neither is running a negative campaign Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). October September /19-22/08+ 8/08+ Yes, John McCain is running a negative campaign Yes, Barack Obama is running a negative campaign Yes, both are running negative campaigns (VOL) No, neither is running a negative campaign Not sure October 16 18, Yes, George W. Bush is running a negative campaign Yes, John Kerry is running a negative campaign Yes, both are running negative campaigns (VOL) No, neither is running a negative campaign Not sure... 2 July Yes, George W. Bush is a negative campaigner... 8 Yes, Al Gore is a negative campaigner Yes, both are negative campaigners (VOL) No, neither is a negative campaigner Not sure... 6 Q23 Some people say that the presidential candidates are embellishing and misstating facts--do you think this is true? (IF "YES," ASK:) Do you think this applies more to Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, or do you think this applies to both of them equally?+** Yes, applies more to Mitt Romney Yes, applies more to Barack Obama Yes, applies to both equally No, this is not true... 8 Depends (VOL)... 1 Not sure... 3 ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). OCTOBER 13 15, Yes, applies more to George W. Bush... 7 Yes, applies more to Al Gore Yes, applies to both of them equally No, this is not true Depends (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 4

21 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 21 Q24 Now, who do you think is better prepared to lead the country for the NEXT four years (ROTATE:) - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? If you think both are equally prepared or neither is prepared to lead the country for the NEXT four years, please just say so. 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ Mitt Romney Barack Obama Both Neither Not sure Q25 Now, thinking specifically about the economy, who do you think is better prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the NEXT four years (ROTATE:) - Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? If you think both are equally prepared or neither is prepared to create jobs and improve the economy over the NEXT four years, please just say so. 10/12+ 30/12+ Mitt Romney Barack Obama Both Neither Not sure

22 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 22 Q26 Regardless of who you are voting for, when it comes to (READ ITEM) campaign, would you say that they have a message and you know what they would do if elected, or would you say that they do NOT have a message and you do NOT know what they would do if elected? Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected Some Of Both (VOL) Mitt Romney s and Paul Ryan s +*** September 26-30, Barack Obama s and Joe Biden s +*** September 26-30, *** Asked of 791 registered voters. SEPTEMBER Have A Message/Know What They Would Do If Elected Do Not Have A Message/Do Not Know What They Would Do If Elected Some Of Both (VOL) John Kerry s and John Edward s George W. Bush s and Dick Cheney s Not Sure Not Sure Q27 If President Obama were to win reelection, would you want his second term to be a lot like his first term, would you want him to make minor adjustments and modifications, or would you want him to make major changes? Barack Obama George W. Bush 10/12+ 10/04+ 9/04+ Second term should be a lot like first term Should make minor modifications/ adjustments in second term Should make major changes in second term Not sure Results shown reflect responses among registered voters

23 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 23 Q28 Now, I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few qualities that people might look for in a president. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama would be better or Mitt Romney would be better on that item. If you think that both would be equally good or that neither would be good on a particular item, just say so. Who do you think would be better when it comes to (READ ITEM. RANDOMIZE.)--Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY BARACK OBAMA BETTER Barack Obama Better Mitt Romney Better Both Would Be Equally Good Neither Would Be Good Depends (VOL) Being easygoing and likable. +* August April Dealing with issues of concern to women September 12-16, August April Being compassionate enough to understand average people. +** April November Looking out for the middle class September 26-30, September 12-16, July April Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency. +** August July April November Being a good commander-in-chief. +* September 26-30, September 12-16, August July April November Having the strong leadership qualities needed to be president * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). Not Sure

24 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 24 Q29 Now I'd like you to compare Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on a few issues. For each one, please tell me whether you think that Barack Obama or Mitt Romney would be better on that issue. If you think that both would be equally good or that neither would be good on a particular issue, just say so. Who do you think would be better when it comes to (READ ITEM. RANDOMIZE.)--Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good? THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY BARACK OBAMA BETTER Barack Obama Better Mitt Romney Better Both Would Be Equally Good Neither Would Be Good Depends (VOL) Same-sex marriage +** Dealing with the issue of abortion Dealing with Medicare September 26-30, September 12-16, July Handling foreign policy +* September 26-30, July Handling the situation in Afghanistan +** July Dealing with taxes September 26-30, September 12-16, July Appointments to the Supreme Court +* Dealing with the economy September 26-30, September 12-16, July Jobs and unemployment +** The federal budget deficit +* September 26-30, * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A). ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). Not Sure

25 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 25 (ROTATE QX1 & QX2) And QX1 Have you received any mail, , telephone calls, contact on social media like Facebook or Twitter or any other personal contact encouraging you to vote for Mitt Romney? (IF YES, PLEASE SPECIFY/ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES) THIS TABLE RANKED BY HIGHEST COMBINED PERCENTAGE 10/12+^ 8/12+ Total Contacted Mail Telephone calls Social Media Other personal contact None Not sure ^ Asked of 595 registered voters 10/ QX2 Have you received any mail, , telephone calls, contact on social media like Facebook or Twitter or any other personal contact encouraging you to vote for Barack Obama? (IF YES, PLEASE SPECIFY/ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES) THIS TABLE RANKED BY HIGHEST COMBINED PERCENTAGE 10/12+^ 8/12+ Total Contacted Mail Social Media Telephone calls Other personal contact None Not sure ^ Asked of 595 registered voters 10/18-20.

26 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 26 Now, turning to the economy... Q30 During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation's economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12 Economy will get better Economy will get worse Economy will stay about the same Not sure Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, Over the next year 5/12 4/12 3/12 1/12 12/11 11/11 10/11 8/ /11 6/11 4/11 2/11 1/11 12/10 11/10 10/14-18/ /10 8/26-30/10 8/5-9/10 6/10 5/6-10/10 3/10 1/10-14/10 10/09 9/ /09 6/09 4/09 10/ /06+ 10/04+ 10/02+ 10/98+ 10/ Q31a Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering? 10/12+* 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 6/12 Economy is recovering Economy is not recovering Mixed/In between (VOL) Not sure * Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).

27 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 27 Q31b The government agency that follows the job market recently found that in the month of September one hundred and fourteen thousand (114,000) jobs were created and the unemployment rate was seven point eight percent (7.8%). Do you think that these statistics are a reason for optimism about the economic conditions in the country, or do you not think that these statistics are a reason for optimism about the economic conditions in the country? 10/12+** 30/ / /12 2 5/12 1 Reason for optimism Not a reason for optimism Mixed (VOL) Not Sure ** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B). 1 In May, the question referenced the April 2012 labor statistics: 115,000 jobs and 8.1% unemployment. 2 In June, the question referenced the May 2012 labor statistics: 69,000 jobs and 8.2% unemployment. 3 In August, the question referenced the May 2012 labor statistics: 163,000 jobs and 8.3% unemployment. 4 In September, the question referenced the May 2012 labor statistics: 114,000 jobs and 7.8% unemployment. (ROTATE Q32 & Q33) Q32 And how confident are you that Barack Obama has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy--extremely confident, quite confident, only somewhat confident, or not at all confident? 10/12+ 8/12+ 5/12 8/10 1/10-14/10 12/09 9/09 7/09 6/09 Extremely confident Quite confident Only somewhat confident Not at all confident Not sure Q33 And how confident are you that Mitt Romney has the right set of goals and policies to improve the economy--extremely confident, quite confident, only somewhat confident, or not at all confident? 10/12+ 8/12+ 5/12 Extremely confident Quite confident Only somewhat confident Not at all confident Not sure

28 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 28 Switching topics slightly Q34 When it comes to dealing with the budget deficit, which of these two statements comes closer to your point of view, would it be? (ROTATE)+ Statement A: Leaders in Congress should make compromises to gain consensus on the budget deficit, even if it means Democrats would have to accept targeted domestic spending cuts and Republicans would have to accept targeted tax increases. Or Statement B: Leaders in Congress should stick to their positions on the budget deficit, even if it means there would be automatic across the board spending cuts equally divided between military and domestic programs and tax rates would go back up automatically. A: Make compromises B: Stick to their positions Mixed (VOL)... 2 Neither (VOL)... 3 Not sure... 5 Now, thinking about something else Q35 Based on what you seen, read, and heard about the attack on the American consulate in Libya, do you think the United States could have prevented or could not have prevented this attack or do you not know enough to have an opinion?+ Could have prevented attack Could NOT have prevented attack Do not know enough Not sure... 1 And, changing topics again Q36 On the issue of abortion, would you say you are more likely to vote for a...right to life candidate, pro-choice candidate, or would it not make much difference on how you might vote? 10/12+ 3/05+ Right to life candidate Pro-choice candidate Would not make much difference Not sure

29 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 29 FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only. QF1a Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (state from Q1x)]?+ Registered Not registered... - Not sure... - QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in last November's election for president? (IF YES, ASK:) For whom did you vote Barack Obama, John McCain, or someone else?+ Yes, Voted Voted for Barack Obama Voted for John McCain Voted for someone else... 3 Not sure... 1 No, Did Not Vote Not sure... 1 QF1d And did you happen to vote in the 2010 election for U.S. Congress?+ Yes, Voted No, did not vote Not sure... 4 QF2 Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do? (RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a homemaker, retired, or unemployed and looking for work?+ Currently Employed Professional, manager White-collar worker Blue-collar worker Farmer, rancher... - Not Currently Employed Student... 5 Homemaker... 6 Retired Unemployed, looking for work... 5 Other... - Not sure... 1 QF3 What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.)+ Grade school... - Some high school... 4 High school graduate Some college, no degree Vocational training/2-year college year college/bachelor's degree Some postgraduate work, no degree years postgraduate work/master's degree Doctoral/law degree... 4 Not sure/refused... -

30 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 30 QF4a Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")+ Strong Democrat Not very strong Democrat... 9 Independent/lean Democrat Strictly Independent Independent/lean Republican Not very strong Republican... 7 Strong Republican Other (VOL)... 2 Not sure... 1 Now, thinking about something else QF4b Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party Movement? 10/12+ 30/12+ 9/12-16/12+ 8/12+ 7/12+ 6/12+ 5/12+ 4/12+ 3/12+ Yes No Depends (VOL) Not sure /12+ 12/11+ 11/11+ 10/11+ 8/11+ 6/11+ 5/11+ 4/ /11+ 1/11+ 12/10+ 11/10+ 10/28-30/10+ 10/14-18/10+ 9/ QF5 Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)?+ Very liberal... 9 Somewhat liberal Moderate Somewhat conservative Very conservative Not sure... 3

31 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 31 QF6a What is your religion?+ Protestant (includes Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Episcopal, Presbyterian, and other Christians) Catholic Jewish... 2 Muslim... 1 Mormon/LDS/Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints... 2 Other None Not sure/refused... 2 (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY PROTESTANT, OTHER, NONE, OR NOT SURE IN QF6a.) QF6b Would you describe yourself as either a fundamentalist or an evangelical Christian, or would you not describe yourself that way?+ Fundamentalist/evangelical Neither fundamentalist nor evangelical Not sure... 4 Catholic/Jewish/Muslim/Mormon (QF6a) QF7a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR "NOT SURE" IN QF7a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member?+ Labor union member Union household... 6 Non-union household Not sure... - QF8 Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or are you unmarried and living with a partner?+ Married Widowed... 6 Separated... 2 Divorced Single/never been married Unmarried and living with a partner... 6 Refused... -

32 HART/McINTURFF Study # page 32 QF9 If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year, would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand dollars, or would the total be more than that?+ Less than $10, Between $10,000 and $20, Between $20,000 and $30, Between $30,000 and $40, Between $40,000 and $50, Between $50,000 and $75, Between $75,000 and $100, More than $100, Not sure/refused... 9