The Cook Political Report s Road Map to the 2018 Midterms
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1 The Cook Political Report s Road Map to the 2018 Midterms David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Council on Government Relations October 25, dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: The opinions presented are those of the presenter only.
2 Disclaimer: A Failed 2016 Prediction
3
4 The Distracted Boyfriend
5 The Party-less President? Missed Opportunities: Trump could have led with infrastructure & forged a deal on immigration. Instead, mostly catering to 46% who elected him.
6 2018: The Split-Screen Midterm
7 I. How Did We Get Here?
8 Lifestyle Realignment of the Electorate Austin, TX Lebanon, TN In 1992, Bill Clinton won 59% of counties that now have a Whole Foods & 40% of counties that now have a Cracker Barrel.
9 The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort Election Year Election Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Culture Gap 1992 Clinton (D) 59% 40% 19% 1996 Clinton (D) 64% 41% 23% 2000 Bush (R) 44% 75% 31% 2004 Bush (R) 40% 79% 39% 2008 Obama (D) 78% 35% 43% 2012 Obama (D) 75% 29% 46%
10 Trump Era: Huge Suburban/Rural Divide Electio n Year Election Winner Whole Foods Counties Cracker Barrel Counties Culture Gap 2016 Trump (R) 22% 76% 54% Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was widest ever. 70% of voters live in landslide precincts (was 41% in 1992).
11 2016: 3 of 3,141 Counties Elected Trump Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes, but won the Electoral College thanks to Macomb, MI; Westmoreland, PA & Waukesha, WI.
12 II. Where Are We Going? Note: Intended as a funny road sign, not a commentary on the fate of any current or past political figures.
13 2018: Tale of Two Battlegrounds
14 First, Two Reasons Republicans Might Not Fall Off a Cliff in November
15 Political Geography Favors GOP Senate: Democrats would need to carry every Clinton state & 11 Trump-won states to win narrowest possible majority in 2018
16 House Geography Also Favors GOP House: Democrats need 7-8% more votes than GOP to win narrowest possible majority, thanks to gerrymandering & residential patterns
17 House: Dems Need 8% More Votes Than GOP for Majority. Today, They re Just a Bit Above.
18 2. Favorable Views of the Economy President/Year POTUS Approval Satisfied w/ Economy? Senate House Bill Clinton (1994) 46% 45% George W. Bush (2006) 38% 43% Barack Obama (2010) 45% 18% Donald Trump (2018) 41% 66%??
19 Four Reasons 2018 Is Still on Track to Be a Wave Election for Democrats
20 1. Women: 2018 as the Year of the Fired Up Female College Graduate Gender Canyon: 27% of women with a college degree approve of Trump, 70% disapprove. Among men without degrees, 64%/34% (NBC/WSJ).
21 Record-Shattering: 100 Women May Be Elected to the House in November Demographic Divide: After November, 87% of House Republicans are likely to be white men, compared to just 37% of House Democrats
22 2. Republicans Can t Count on Trump s Base to Show Up to Vote in 2018
23 Intensity Gap: Democrats, Non-Whites, Women & Young Voters Far More Enthusiastic This Time
24 3. Check and Balance Voters: Red in 2016, Blue in 2018?
25 Democrats Special Election Showings in GOP Seats Suggest Strong November Gains
26 4. Red Exodus: Historic Number of GOP Open Seats
27 Red Exodus: Out with Trump Skeptics And in with Trump Loyalists (Mostly)
28 House: Dems Still the Favorites to Win Majority
29 House: Ryan Lacked the Desire to Stay. But Will Pelosi Have the Votes? Democratic candidates: Heavy on women, military veterans & Obama officials - not political officeholders.
30 Senate: Heavily Rural, Lopsided Battleground = Dems on Defense Lopsided: 26 Democratic seats up in 2018, but just 9 for Republicans
31 Senate: Only 2 GOP Seats at Serious Risk, But 2 Potential Upsets Lopsided: 26 Democratic seats up in 2018, but just 9 for Republicans
32
33 Governors: Dems Poised to Gain 6-8 Seats, Critical to 2020 Redistricting Lopsided Map Points to Dem Gains: 9 Democratic seats up (4 Open), 26 Republicans (15 Open), 1 Independent (Alaska)
34 Democrats/2020: Expect the Unexpected
35 Questions
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