2015 Presidential Election Outcome: Analyses & Implications

Transcription

1 THE CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICYALTERNATIVES (cpparesearch.rg) 2015 Presidential Electin Outcme: Analyses & Implicatins Preamble March 28th thrugh April 1st 2015 marked anther turn in Nigeria s demcratic histry as registered vters tk t the plls t elect the next set f leaders int the Presidential and Natinal Assembly psitins. The electins, cnducted in the thirty six states f the cuntry and the Federal Capital Territry, witnessed the emergence f the ppsitin party the All Prgressives Cngress (APC) and its candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari - as the new president f the Federal Republic. This utcme was als the first time an ppsitin party wuld unseat the ruling Peple Demcratic Party (PDP) since Nigeria s transitin int civil rule in Analysis f Result Of the 67,422,005 registered vters in Nigeria, nly 31,746,490 (47.08%) were accredited fr the 2015 presidential electin; 29,432,083 f vtes were cast, f which 28,587,564 (~97%) were valid. The 2015 presidential electin and the eventual utcme were in many ways different frm ther electins, especially the 2011 editin: 14 plitical parties (20 in 2011) cntested the electin. Mre vtes were cast in 2011 (38,209,978) than in 2015 (28,587,564) by a ~25% difference. The incumbent lst t the ppsitin: 45% (12,853,162) t 54% (15,427,943) The incumbency lst by a relatively wide margin f the ttal vtes cast fr the ppsitin, abut 20% (2,574,781) The ppsitin wn mre states (21) and had at least 25% f vtes in mre states (26 t 25) The PDP lst apprximately 43% f the vtes it nce cntrlled (22,495,187 in 2011 t 12,853,162 in 2015). In cntrast, the APC gained apprximately 26% mre vtes between 2011 and 2015 (12,214,853 t 15,424,921) The PDP wn 31 states in 2011, but culd nly muster 16 states in 2015 The PDP nt nly lst 15 f the 31 states, it als lst sme percentage f vtes in the states it retained There was an increase in the number f ttal vtes cast fr the tw main parties; 98.92% in 2015 cmpared t in marginal parties saw their supprt erded. Party Vtes received % f vtes received 1

2 APC 15,424, PDP 12,853, APA 53, ACPN 40, CPP 36, AD 30, ADC 29, PPN 24, NCP 24, AA 22, UPP 18, KOWA 13, UDP 9, HOPE 7, Surce: The vter turnut (number f ttal vtes cast divided by number f registered vters) was 43.65% - the lwest in Nigeria s demcratic histry since 1999 (52% in 1999, 69% in 2003, 57% in 2007 and 54% in 2011). Vter turnut fr the 2015 presidential electin (cmpared t the 2011 utcme) declined in all the geplitical znes, except in the Suth- West where it appreciated by apprximately 8% (32% Nigeria presidential electin: reginal vter turnut apprximate Nrth Central Nrth East Nrth West Suth East Suth- Suth Suth West t ~40%). Table shwing apprximated vter turnut by % in the 36 states Observatin & f the state by state breakdwn f the FCT the lw vter turnut shwed that nly 13 Lags 29 APC Gmbe 46 APC states had 50% r mre. Abut all the Nrthern Brn 30 APC Taraba 46 PDP states, including thse where there have been Abia 33 PDP Adamawa 47 APC Ogun 35 APC Niger 47 APC issues f insurgency, had turnut f at least Kgi 35 APC Ybe 48 APC 40% (except Brn with 30%). Lags, a state Ed 36 PDP Osun 50 APC cnsidered relatively peaceful, with little r n Abuja 39 PDP Kaduna 52 APC Anambra 39 PDP Bauchi 53 APC security breach especially as regards pre/pst Ebnyi 40 PDP Kebbi 54 APC electin vilence; had the lwest turnut (29%). Benue 40 APC Plateau 54 PDP In cntrast, Rivers state had the highest turnut Ond 41 APC Katsina 56 APC (71%), althugh there were pckets f Kwara 41 APC Zamfara 59 APC Crss River 44 PDP Skt 59 APC cmplaints (by ppsitin parties) f electral Kan 44 APC Jigawa 64 APC malpractices thus requesting fr a cancellatin. Enugu 45 PDP Bayelsa 64 PDP The Independent Natinal Electral Cmmissin Ekiti 45 PDP Akwa Ibm 65 PDP (INEC) cnducted an inquiry, and decided t Oy 46 APC Delta 66 PDP Im 46 PDP Rivers 71 PDP uphld the result f the electin as valid (inec Nasarawa 46 PDP website). 2

3 The aggregate vtes frm the Nrth West exceeded the vtes frm the Suth- East and the Suth- Suth. The Suth- Suth had the mst uneven vtes between bth candidates f the PDP and the APC. The Suth- East vted the least fr the APC candidate with less than 20,000 vtes in 4 ut f 5 states. The Suth- West had the mst even distributin f vtes between the parties. Lw turnut may be attributed t sme factrs. First, it might be an indicatin that previus electin results were inflated. Secnd, there was a heightened sense f insecurity amng Nigerians, with causes such as the Bk Haram insurgency in the Nrth, the pssibility f the incumbent nt willing t accept the utcme f the electin shuld it nt be in its favur, the effects f the electin pstpnement, etc. Als, there is the perceptin that vtes d nt cunt and that the utcmes have been pre- decided by an elite minrity. Map shwing flashpints f pssible vilence Surce: CLEEN Fundatin, February 2015 Accrding t the 2015 General Electin Security threat assessment (website), 11 f the 37 states were in high pssibility f vilence (indicated in red n the map), 20 states plus the FCT were in pssibility f escalating tensins and cnflict ptentiality (in amber), while nly 5 states (in green) were relatively peaceful. Sme f the indicatrs f vilence include hate and inciting speech, cmmunal vilence and ther lcalized cnflict, militant grups, vigilantes and yuth thuggery, perfrmance f security institutins, and fear f electral manipulatin. Predictin f the pll In a pll leading up t the presidential electin, the Centre fr Public Plicy Alternatives (CPPA), a nn- gvernmental and nn- partisan rganisatin, cnducted an independent public pinin pll predicting a win fr the ppsitin APC party in Lags (cppa website). Using a rigrus methdlgy, with an errr margin f 3.2%, the pll predicted what turned ut t be true. 54% f Nigerians in Lags had said the APC wuld win the 2015 presidential electin, and 58% (±3.2) f Nigerians in Lags had said they wuld vte fr General Muhammadu Buhari. The electin in Lags 3

4 The electin utcme in Lags was a clse call. Again, the APC wn Lags with 54.89% f the valid vte cast; a result that als is cnsistent with the utcme f the CPPA pinin pll. APC PDP REG VOTERS ACCREDITED VALID VOTE 792,460 (54.89%) 632,327 (43.80%) 5,827,846 1,678,754 1,443,686 Surce: cntent/uplads/2015/04/summary- f- results.pdf As predicted by the CPPA s pll, the PDP wn Ajermi/Ifeldun, Amuw- Odfin (undecided blck), Oj (they were favured t win this LGA, as they plled 50% f the pssible vte) and Surulere (they were als favured t win this LGA, as the vte margin was by 4 pints mre than the APC). CPPA pll predictin (February 2015) 2015 Presidential utcme (March 2015) APC/PDP CPPA pll predictin (February 2015) 2015 Presidential utcme (March 2015) APC/PDP Agege 54,611 25,596 Ksfe 56,170 33,945 Ajermi/Ifeldun 37,716 57,494 Lags Island 33,242 13,002 Alimsh 86,897 59,316 Lags Mainland 33,898 23,857 Amuw- Odfin 24,612 39,291 Mushin 60,778 33,377 Apapa 23,818 17,328 Oj 26,117 40,685 Eti- Osa 28,188 21,480 Oshdi- Isl 42,585 48,878 Ibeju- Lekki 12,016 10,812 Smlu 45,297 32,501 Ifak- Ijaye 50,607 22,980 Surulere 52,798 58,649 Ikeja 29,893 23,836 Badagry 24,137 23,296 Ikrdu 49,901 29,604 Epe 19,179 16,400 Blue: APC likely win. Red: PDP likely win. Amber: either party wins Implicatins/Prjectins The verall utcme f the electins will definitely have it impacts at bth the federal and state levels. At the presidential level, sme legislative cnfiguratin implicatins include: With the gverning party having n Senate representative frm the Suth- East, the Senate President will nt emerge frm these regins. David Mark, Senate President fr tw terms with a fifth appearance in the Senate will becme a flr member f the Senate But fr ne seat t the Labur party, nly tw parties (APC and PDP) cnstitute the Senate (The Punch; April 1, 2015) Nn- indigenes vte blck: A key feature that was bvius in the Lags electin was the nn- indigenes vte blck. Nticeable clustering f nn- lagsians in specific lcal gvernment areas f Lags and their demgraphic dminatin f thse areas has an effect n the utcme f electin in the state. Fr instance, the three nn- indigene winners f Federal Huse f Representative seats are frm areas dminated by citizens frm Suth Eastern Nigeria - a test in 4

5 the histry f electins in Nigeria. The ppulatin rati breakdwn f indigene/nn- indigene in the state als has an effect n the electin turnut. Rigging card reader effect & rles f M&E. The events during the presidential electins shwed flashpints that the electral mnitring prcesses in Nigeria culd d with sme imprvement, a majr respnsibility fr the Independent Electral Cmmissin (INEC) fr the gvernrship and future electins. Cnclusin The Gvernrship and States Huse f Assembly electins have been scheduled fr April 11, Party dynamics have shifted taking attentin ff the central and fcus n the state level. Quick grassrts sensitizatin have been dne, mbilizatin agents such as traditinal and religius institutins, business cmmunity, and market unins are expected t have been prperly mbilized. States such as Rivers and Lags will be keenly cntested between the tw dminant parties. Again, the CPPA public pinin pll cnducted in January/February predicted a win fr the APC and its gvernrship candidate by vtes a little abve 50%. The Centre fr Public Plicy Alternatives (CPPA) April 9,