Briefing: Crisis in the Central African Republic August 2013

Transcription

1 Briefing: Crisis in the Central African Republic August 2013 Headlines Security and administrative vacuum in Bangui and rest f cuntry Tensins between Muslim and Christian cmmunities Grwing tensins within Seleka calitin Dubts ver the effectiveness f reginal peacekeeping frce Fertile cnditins fr humanitiarian disaster; limited access fr aid rganisatins The fllwing update is drawn frm interviews and infrmatin gathered during tw visits t CAR in May and August 2013 by Cnciliatin Resurces staff and assciated cnsultant, Guus Meijer. The frmatin f a calitin f rebel mvements in December 2012, Seleka ( calitin in Sang, the main language f the CAR), its rapid and vilent advance frm its bases in the nrth-east twards the capital Bangui in December t January and its capture f Bangui n 24 March 2013 threw the cuntry int anther prlnged and multifaceted crisis. This is the mst recent episde in a recurrent cycle f cup d états, mutinies, armed rebellins and increasingly dictatrial regimes, which thrw the cuntry int chas arund every ten years. Prblems, challenges and risks Five mnths after the Seleka take-ver, the mst urgent prblems, challenges and risks are the fllwing: Military and security situatin The security situatin in Bangui and the rest f the cuntry remains fragile. Althugh the wrst vilence and abuses by Seleka frces seem t be ver, undisciplined and disgruntled frmer rebels ram the capital and smaller twns at night, lting, raping and killing with impunity. There are als reprts that Seleka frces cntinue t hunt and kill frmer members f the Frces armées centrafricaines (FACA, the 1,500-strng frmer natinal army), whm it accuses f preparing a return f usted President Bzizé. During and after the Seleka seizure f pwer, the remaining FACA trps, plice and gendarmerie, as well as the judicial and ther civil authrities mstly fled r disintegrated, leaving a security and administrative vacuum, bth in Bangui and in many parts f the interir. The French cntingent based in Bangui, which was increased in strength frm 250 t 600 at the beginning f the crisis in December, is adhering largely t the mandate assigned t it by President Hllande and Freign Minister Fabius: t secure Bangui internatinal airprt (where the French trps are based), and t prtect French and ther Eurpean citizens and interests. The cntingent therefre retains a relatively lw prfile in the crisis. There remain dubts abut the peratinal readiness and cmmand f the reginal peacekeeping frces. The current peacekeeping missin, the Missin de Cnslidatin de la Paix en Centrafrique (MICOPAX), which perates under the auspices f the Ecnmic Cmmunity f Central African States (ECCAS), cnsists f arund 550 trps frm Chad, Gabn and the Republic f Cng. MICOPAX has struggled t raise the 1,500 extra trps prmised by the Chiefs f Staff f the ECCAS member states, and deemed necessary t carry ut its missin, and is set t be replaced by the African Unin (AU) mandated African-led Internatinal Supprt Missin in the Central African Republic (AFISM-CAR). AFISM-CAR, which fficially became peratinal n 1 August fr an initial 6-mnth perid, will be a larger frce, but will als be largely dependent n UN lgistical and financial supprt which has yet t be agreed upn. The AU and ECCAS will als need t cperate mre clsely t ensure there is a cnsistent security presence n the grund during this peacekeeping transitin. The military and security situatin in CAR is the mre cmplex due t the prminent crss-brder dynamic f the cnflict. Other cuntries and their militaries are r have been invlved ne way r anther in the CAR, while the 173 Upper Street Lndn N1 1RG UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) c-r.rg Web: Cnciliatin Resurces is a cmpany limited by guarantee ( ) and a charity registered in England and Wales ( )

2 cuntry als serves as a sanctuary fr freign rebel grups, mst ntably since 2008 the Lrd s Resistance Army (LRA) in the suth-east, but als the Frnt Ppulaire pur le Redressement (FPR) f the Chadian warlrd General Abdel Kader, alias Baba Laddé. The Seleka clatin cntains several army cmmanders frm Chad and Sudan wh d nt speak Sang, the natinal language f Central African Republic. Unable t understand them, CAR citizens, particularly thse frm the cuntryside, are bth resentful and fearful f their presence. Since 2008, the Ugandan Peple s Defence Frce (UPDF), nminally integrating elements frm FACA and supprted by sme 100 US military advisers, perate under an African Unin (AU) mandate in the far suth-eastern crner f the cuntry, tracking and fighting Jseph Kny and his LRA rebels. S far, it seems the Seleka takever has nt greatly affected this peratin, thugh sme clashes have been reprted between the Ugandan trps and sme unidentified rebels wh tried t advance t the twn f Ob a cmmercial centre and trading hub in this mst islated crner f the cuntry which was bypassed during the Seleka push twards Bangui. The necessary disarmament, dembilisatin and reintegratin (DDR) f Seleka cmbatants and frmer FACA, and the repatriatin f freign Seleka fighters wh are mainly Chadian, Sudanese and ther mercenaries wh fught alngside Seleka, can prbably nly be achieved by a strng and prfessinal freign military frce. This shuld preferably cme frm, accrding t surces in the CAR, a mre r less neutral backgrund, i.e. nt frm any f the neighburing cuntries r France, but Angla fr example. This des nt seem t be likely in the near future. Previus experience f DDR in CAR des nt ffer much encuragement. DDR under UN and Wrld Bank auspices targeting the FACA and armed mvements that had signed a peace agreement with the Gvernment such as the Armée Ppulaire pur la Restauratin de la Démcratie (ARPD) frm the nrth-west and central parts f the CAR and the Unin des Frces Démcratiques pur le Rassemblement (UFDR) based in the nrth-east did nt achieve many tangible results. Few arms were ever cllected, rebels received little r n mney r ther frms f supprt and either returned t their parallel ccupatin as cupeurs de rute (r zaraguinas) r jined new break-away factins r ther armed plitical rebellins. Security Sectr Refrm (SSR) was an equally cumbersme prcess; Bzizé had becme increasingly afraid f an insurrectin frm within the armed frces and FACA frces were kept deliberately weak and prly equipped. Plitics and gvernance Anther majr cncern is the rapidly decreasing chesin within the Seleka calitin. The fur main rebel mvements and ther affiliated grups were united in their gal f usting the Bzizé regime, but lacked any pstcup plan f actin r cnstructive cmmn prgramme fr the cuntry. Once in pwer, the cracks in the calitin have widened and each mvement is fighting fr its wn turf. Accrding t a UN surce, the respective leaders are in fact nly able t visit camps and areas cntrlled by their wn men. A new inclusive gvernment was finally installed n 12 June. The Prime Minister emerging frm the Libreville peace talks in January, frmer ppsitin member Maître Niclas Tiangaye, will cntinue t lead this transitinal natinal unity gvernment (Guvernement d unin natinale et de transitin). Eighteen f the 34 ministers cme frm civil sciety, the remainder are members f Seleka, the demcratic ppsitin, the frmer presidential majrity and the nn-cmbatant armed ppsitin (ppsitin armée nn cmbattante). Key psts, hwever, remain in the hands f the frmer rebels: President Michel Djtdia, leader f the main rebel mvement UFDR is in charge f defense, while the ther strngman, General Nureldine Adam, leader f Cnventin des patrites pur la Justice et la paix (CPJP) is currently the Minster fr Security. It is nt clear yet t what extent the lack f internal chesin within Seleka, either in plitical r in military terms, will affect the new Gvernment and its ability t lead the cuntry ut f its current crisis. T d s wuld require the (re)establishment f sme semblance f law and rder and civilian, including juridical, administratin acrss the whle f CAR territry, as well as facilitatin fr the resumptin f ecnmic activity. There are reprts that, in the absence f assurances frm cre Western cuntries, technical and financial supprt is being sught nt nly frm

3 the riginal patrns f Seleka and its cnstituent grups (i.e. Chad and Sudan), but als frm further afield, in particular frm cuntries such as Mrcc and sme f the Gulf States. The pwer relatinship between the varius natinal plitical structures has yet t crystalise. The Natinal Transitinal Cuncil, the advisry and law making bdy f CAR established by President Bzizé in 2004 t draft a new cnstitutin and prepare fr that year s electins, was retained after the Seleka takever. Despite electing Michel Djtdia as the interim President and the Speaker f the Natinal Transitinal Cuncil as the Prime Minister Niclas Tiangaye, the Cuncil remains weak, with its 105 members divided n hw t advance the transitin. It is als still unclear hw much leverage internatinal bdies, such as the ECCAS, AU, UN and EU, can wield in frging a plitical reslutin. Civil sciety has traditinally been weak in CAR, but the crisis may prvide it with an incentive t jin frces and play a cnstructive rle in bringing abut necessary plitical and scial change. The cmmitment made at the Libreville Agreement t hld demcratic electins within 18 mnths will be difficult t achieve at best, and will at wrst exacerbate the plitical and scial fragility that the cuntry is experiencing. Althugh a standard requirement fr internatinal recgnitin and the resumptin f aid, the hlding f electins will require large amunts f (freign) funding and place a huge strain n the limited administrative and rganisatinal capacities f the state. It is als pssible that the electins culd d harm, heightening tensins and reviving ld cnflicts and rivalries at a time when they are least needed. A pssible way ut f this dilemma culd be t fcus first n the refrming the electral system, with pririty given t lcal electins and the imprved representatin f peripheral interests in the centre. In itself, this prcess, seen as a preparatry stage fr demcratic electins, wuld be expected t take lnger than the 18 mnths scheduled t prepare fr the electins. Dnr presence The Wrld Bank has temprarily clsed its missin and it is unclear when it will repen as they assess the situatin and the pssibility f return. The AU des nt recgnise the new Gvernment and has suspended CAR s membership, but cntacts still cntinue, fr example thrugh the Libreville Mnitring Cmmissin. Similarly, the EU has nt recgnised the transitinal President and Gvernment, and cntinues t prvide primarily humanitarian aid thrugh channels unaffiliated with the gvernment. Having evacuated all nn-essential staff, the UN Missin s scpe t influence the situatin is limited. The Head f Missin, Margaret Vgt, left her psitin at the end f June and was replaced by the Senegalese General Babacar Gaye, until nw Adjunct Secretary-General f the UN and military adviser t the Department f Peacekeeping Operatins. The UN has nt fficially recgnised the new President; the legal basis fr its cntinued peratins lies in the Libreville Peace Agreement, signed n 11 January 2013 between then President Bzizé and Seleka. Bzize and Jean Willybir Sak, ne f the signatries, have since left the scene, and sme f the articles cntained in the agreement have lst their relevance. The agreement, hwever, cntinues t stand, and the UN des recgnise Prime Minister Tiangaye, as his appintment was agreed in the Libreville Peace Agreement. BINUCA, the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the CAR, has had difficult adapting t fast-mving develpments in the cuntry, and will n dubt need t change its mandate in light f the AU s authrisatin f AFISM-CAR. Bradly, the UN will cntinue t mnitr what it sees as three pririty structures fr plitical prgress: (i) a Transitinal Charter, which defines transitinal structures (including the Natinal Transitinal Cuncil), timeframes fr implementatin (e.g. electins in 18 mnths); (ii) a brad-based Mnitring Cmmissin (Cmité de suivi), cnsisting f representatives f the varius plitical tendencies in the CAR plus civil sciety, all ECCAS member states, BINUCA and the AU-ffice in Bangui; and (iii) a new inclusive gvernment. Reginal invlvement The bdy that s far has taken the lead in seeking a way ut f the CAR crisis is ECCAS, cmprising Angla, Burundi, Camern, CAR, Chad, Cng Brazzaville, DRC, Equatrial Guinea, Gabn and Sã Tmé & Príncipe.

4 Despite the fact that Chad s President Déby currently hlds the ECCAS Presidency, the prcess seems t be led principally by Cnglese President Denis Sassu-Nguess, anther lngtime supprter f Bzizé, wh chairs the Libreville Mnitring Cmmissin and has appinted an ECCAS Special Representative, based in Bangui, Mr Pierre Mussa. As stipulated abve, serius dubts as t the effectiveness f ECCAS reginal peacekeeping frce MICOPAX, in terms f its ability t secure law and rder, t prmte dialgue and recnciliatin, r t lead a DDR prcess have led t the recent annuncement f AFISM-CAR s frmatin. Despite the prminence that this will give t the African Unin in terms f stabilising the security situatin and refrming the state s security sectr, it is clear that, plitically speaking, n slutin fr the CAR can be fund withut the crucial invlvement f ECCAS and its member states. It is t early t say hw ECCAS rle will develp, hw it will crdinate its diplmatic effrts and direct invlvement with ther actrs (particularly the African Unin), and what the utcmes f these effrts will be. Religius tensins Ethnic and religius tensins have always been part f the undercurrent f events in the CAR. Seleka fighters, predminantly frm the nrth-east f the cuntry and f Muslim faith, largely targeted nn-muslim neighburhds and businesses during their advance n Bangui in December and January, and their eventual capture f the city in March. This trend has cntinued during Seleka s tenureship, prvking fears f a sustained Muslim-Christian cnflict. Althugh the cexistence f varius ethnic and religius grups in the CAR has been largely incident-free, in private religius leaders f all denminatins cnsider religius tensins a real trigger f cnflict given the prevailing insecurity, uncertainty and precarius living cnditins experienced by the ppulatin at large. Publicly, hwever, religius leaders have tended t deny the existence f any Muslim-Christian cnflict prir t the current crisis. In reality there has been a lngstanding undercurrent f tensin. Small-scale disputes have traditinally ccurred between nmadic cattle-breeding grups r éléveurs (ften Muslim) and sedentary farmers r agriculteurs (ften nn-muslim), r between Muslim traders and ther peple, wh ften cnsider the traders as freigners. Christians (nearly 50 per cent f the ppulatin) fear that Muslims (10-15 per cent f the ppulatin) will take revenge fr decades f marginalizatin and neglect, and wrry that radical Islamist elements may nw try t impse their rule. Since the utbreak f the current crisis, many rdinary Muslims fear a backlash frm Christians as a result f the ften vilent tactics emplyed by Seleka since their takever. Hindered by inflammatry remarks made in January by then President Bzizé with regard t the Muslim rigin f the Seleka rebels, Djtdia has fund it necessary t publicly cnfirm the secular nature f the Central African state. He has als played dwn the pssibility f a brewing religius cnflict, fllwing heated reactins t his strengthening f ties with Muslim cuntries such as Mrcc and his recent visit t Khartum in June. S, whilst it might be true that there n systematic religius cnflict has ccurred, religin has been, and is seen t be, a catalyst fr ptential scial, ecnmic and plitical cnflict. The harmnius cexistence preached by religius leaders has fr many years been relative and fragile, and runs the risk f cncealing urgent issues that need t be addressed (e.g. centralized gvernment, marginalizatin f certain regins, absence f security and justice systems). Despite this, religius leaders have a majr task and respnsibility t try t prevent any further widening and deepening f the Muslim-Christian tensins, and t allay fears within bth cmmunities. Ecnmic and humanitarian cnsequences The large-scale destructin and displacement caused by the Seleka campaign and the cntinuing insecurity in many parts f the cuntry have brught mst ecnmic activity t a standstill. Recvery is slw and piecemeal. Internatinal aid has largely been suspended and the state cffers are virtually empty, with the new gvernment

5 unable t pay the salaries f civil and military persnnel. It is alleged that the state has been kept aflat by shrtterm lans frm certain ECCAS members and ther friendly Muslim states. The diamnd trade, a main surce f incme fr the state, has been hit by CAR s suspensin frm the Kimberley Press, a decisin which has backfired n the diamnd dealers wh allegedly financed Seleka t verthrw the Bzizé regime. Whatever the truth, it is certain that alluvial diamnd mining has a central place in the Central- African plitical ecnmy, whether fr crrupt rulers, cash-strapped rebels r criminalized gangs f unemplyed yuth, and has the ptential t trigger even greater instability in the increasing security and administrative vacuum in the cuntry. The ecnmic paralysis caused by the displacement f peple, destructin f infrastructure and insecurity f mvement are likely t prduce a humanitarian disaster in additin t the plitical and security crises already manifest. The assistance f aid agencies, mre greatly needed than ever, is being hampered by a restrictive perating envirnment. The plitical reluctance f majr dnrs such as the EU, the US and the Wrld Bank t recgnize the new gvernment is als hindering the ability f aid rganisatins t cmprehensively rll ut their peratins in the cuntry. Backgrund t the 2013 crisis Françis Bzizé, the President whse regime was usted by a calitin f rebel grups n 24 March 2013, was a frmer Chief f Staff (and befre, previus leader Jean-Bedel Bkassa s aide de camp) wh himself had cme t pwer in 2003 by military frce, verthrwing the cuntry s first elected President Ange-Félix Patassé. Backed by the Chadian regime f President Idriss Deby, and given the blessing f French President Jacques Chirac, he assumed pwer in a relatively bldless cup. Bzizé had already staged an insurrectin against President Patassé in 2001, a cup repelled by Patassé and a myriad f military frces, including a 1,000 man Cnglese rebel frce frm the MLC (Muvement de Libératin du Cng), whse leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is nw n trial at the ICC (Internatinal Criminal Curt) in The Hague fr atrcities cmmitted in defence f Patassé s regime. In 2005 and again in 2011 Bzizé embedded himself as President thrugh demcratic electins, all whilstv cncentrating pwer amngst a small grup f cnfidantes frm his regin f rigin and, in particular, his clse relatives. In 2008, under plitical and military pressure t this tightening f cntrl, Bzizé instigated an inclusive plitical dialgue in which gvernment, plitical ppsitin, civil sciety and armed rebel grups participated. Despite cmmitting t the frming f a gvernment t include all the main plitical entities invlved in the dialgue, Bzizé never trusted the prcess, and the dialgue died a slw death. This, in additin t the grssly manipulated 2011 electin, galvanized the revel mvements frm the marginalised nrth-east and nrth-west (previusly instrumentalised by members f the Bangui elite fr plitical advancement) t frm the Seleka calitin and remve Bzizé frm pwer. Bzizé is currently living in exile in Camern. Reginal and dmestic factrs have prvided fertile grund fr Central African Republic s trubled histry. At the dmestic level, central gvernment in the capital Bangui has always been in the hands f a small plitical and military elite, wh have benefited frm the cuntry s abundant natural resurces and the largesse f internatinal aid dnrs, whilst neglecting its respnsibilities t the ppulatin at large. This mstly rural ppulatin has been left t fend fr itself, engaging in subsistence agriculture and cattle-breeding, petty trade and, in sme cases, banditry, paching and illegal gld r diamnd-mining. Reginally. the lng wars in Sudan, DRC and Uganda have spilled ver int the CAR hinterland, with dramatic cnsequences fr the ppulatins cncerned, and affecting the balance f pwer between the centre in Bangui and the dissident mvements in the nrth. In this cntext, Chad has increasingly becme a crucial factr in determining CAR s future nce it had decided t end its backing f Bzizé s regime, assist in the frmatin f Seleka, and instruct its trps in MICOPAX nt t stp Seleka s takever, Bzizé s fate was all but sealed.

6 Peacebuilding pprtunities Ensuring cperatin in rder t tackle shrt t mid-term security cncerns The driving seat in ensuring security in Central Africa Repubic has up until nw been ccupied by ECCAS, in particular by Cng s President Sassu-Nguess, wh chairs the Mnitring Cmmissin. ECCAS Chair, Chadian President Déby plays a crucial supprting rle, as d Gabn and Camern as mst invlved reginal states. The AU will begin t play an increasingly central rle fllwing the deplyment f their peacekeeping missin, and this will have implicatins fr the UN, whse mandate in the cuntry will be partly dependent n its level f supprt fr AFISM-CAR. AFISM-CAR s takever will als have implicatins fr the EU s rle, in as far as it has funded the ECCAS peacekeeping frce MICOPAX, in additin t its supprt fr essential humanitarian, recnstructin and peacebuilding prgrammes. The fast mving situatin in CAR has brught a level f uncertainty t reginal and internatinal respnses, with rganisatins still evaluating t what extent and in what capacity they attempt t intervene. What is clear, hwever, is that cperatin between these rganisatins will be essential in tackling shrt- and mid-term security issues. This will particularly be the case between AU and ECCAS, with the UN and EU playing crucial supprting rles. The EU in particular shuld see CAR as a prminent pprtunity t act n its ambitins fr a cmprehensive apprach t external actin. Explring scpe t review the electral system Cmmitting the state t hld demcratic electins within 18 mnths f the Libreville Agreement will at best be a huge drain n limited resurces, and at wrst a damaging exercise which further weakens the cuntry s plitical and scial institutins. A pssible way ut f this cmmitment culd be t fcus n the revisin f the electral system, with pririty given t lcal electins and the imprved representatin f peripheral interests in the centre. In itself, this prcess, seen as a preparatry stage fr demcratic electins, wuld be expected t take lnger than the 18 mnths scheduled t prepare fr the electins. Invlving and building cnsensus amng civil sciety and religius leaders Civil sciety shuld play a leading rle in framing the debate and final decisin-making by the Natinal Transitinal Cuncil. It shuld nt be limited t a circle f activists in Bangui, but crucially invlve cmmunities in the whle f the cuntry s territry. Legitimate plitics shuld be respnsive t lcal realities and dynamics, nt t abstract ideal-types f demcracy, and the best way t serve bth demcracy and peace is t strengthen bth the hrizntal and vertical lines f cmmunicatin within sciety. Given their unique cuntry-wide netwrks, religius leaders culd play an active rle, as culd sme f the prfessinal assciatins and syndicates, prvided they receive adequate supprt. A ptential channel fr such supprt, in additin t the Religius Leaders Platfrm referred t abve, is the recently cnstituted Civil Sciety Wrking Grup n the Crisis in the CAR (Grupe de Travail de la Sciété Civile sur la Crise en RCA), which has already laid the grundwrk fr a Peacebuilding Campaign (Campagne de Cnslidatin de la Paix). These bdies and their members in-cuntry culd serve as the necessary interfaces between lcal cmmunities and the plitical institutins in the centre. They als culd play a catalyzing rle in creating lcal structures fr dialgue and dispute reslutin, thus enhancing the participatin f rdinary peple in the management f their wn affairs. Given the extent t which crss-brder, external interventin has dictated CAR s path, a mre rbust civil sciety capable f vicing dmestic slutins t the cuntry s prblems wuld be a welcme step twards reslving the current crisis. **** Cnciliatin Resurces is an independent rganisatin wrking with peple in cnflict t prevent vilence and build peace. Fr mre infrmatin abut ur wrk with lcal partners in East and Central Africa, please visit: