Elections 101 Part II

Transcription

1 Electins 101 Part II T be rbbed and betrayed by a fiendish undergrund cnspiracy r by the earthly agents f Satan is at least a rmantic srt f plight. It suggests at least a grand Hllywd-ready cnfrntatin between gd and evil. But t be cldly ripped ff ver and ver again by a bunch f bldless, secnd-rate schmes, schmes yu chse, yu elected, is nt smething anyne will take much pleasure in bragging abut. Matt Taibbi

2 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin

3 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin...a natinal meeting f delegates elected in primaries, caucuses r state cnventins wh assemble nce every fur years t: nminate candidates fr president and vice president (Delegates must cast their vte in favr f ne candidate. If n clear majrity is reached, they must cntinue vting until it is.) ratify the party platfrm: statement f its gals and plicies fr the next fur years elect party fficers adpt rules

4 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin mdern cnventin functins: prmte party unity mtivate the party faithful interest and attract rdinary vters serve as the gverning authrity f the plitical party give directin t the natinal party chairpersn (the spkespersn f the party) and t the persn wh heads the natinal cmmittee (the gverning bdy f the party) frums where presidential candidates are given the fficial nd by their parties rally supprt fr the presidential candidate

5 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin After Andrew Jacksn's electin in 1828, party structures strengthened and the idea f natinal plitical cnventins began t make sense. At that time there had been state party cnventins but n natinal cnventins. The first natinal cnventins were held The first Demcratic natinal cnventin instituted a number f rules which essentially created the framewrk fr plitical cnventins that endures t the present day. Unlike mdern cnventins, party cnventins were decisin-making bdies in the 19 th century.

6 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin The 1860 Demcratic cnventin in Charlestn SC was disrupted by a clash ver slavery and adjurned withut making nminatins.

7 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin The 1960 Kennedy-Jhnsn battle in the Demcratic party represented a turning pint in cnventin histry. The 1960 Demcratic cnventin in LA became a battlegrund between party elders (Jhnsn) and ppular sentiment (Kennedy). N lnger culd party elites chse the nminees withut the cnsent f the peple. This resulted in cnventins that were full f spectacle and intrigue. Often, the party s nminee was relatively unknwn prir t the cnventin, adding a sense f drama and excitement. Fr the remainder f the 1960s, cnventins tried t balance the declining influence f party leaders and the grwing influence f the peple.

8 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin The Cntrversial Demcratic nminatin race f 1968 led t new rules and majr changes that pened up the prcess t regular party vters. results f changes sharp increase in the number f presidential primaries better representatin fr wmen, yung peple and minrities After new rules were put in place, super delegates emerged (1982) t stem the severe decline in the number f Demcratic elected fficials and party leaders wh became delegates. Tday, nminatins are settled well in advance f the cnventin making it a fundamentally different event. [Sme highlights f recent Demcratic cnventin rules disputes]

9 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Tday, the ut-f-pwer party hlds its cnventin first, in late July, fllwed in mid-august by the party hlding the presidency. The rules fr chsing the presidential nminees cmes frm three surces: (1) state law, particularly in terms f setting primary dates, determining wh can vte in a primary, and establishing hw candidates file, (2) natinal party rules and (3) state party rules. In general, Demcratic Party rules are cncerned with unifrmity and fairness frm state t state, while Republican Party rules are cncerned with state autnmy.

10 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin delegate selectin unit rule: traditinal party practice under which the majrity f a state delegatin can frce the minrity t vte fr its candidate (Ablished by the Demcrats.) New Demcratic party rule decreed that state s delegates be chsen in prprtin t the vtes cast in its primary r caucus, prprtinal allcatin (30% f vtes = 30% delegates frm that state). Sme rules riginating in the Demcratic Party have been enacted as laws in sme states, thus making them applicable t the Republican Party as well. Demcratic Detailed Delegate Allcatin Republican Detailed Delegate Allcatin

11 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Wh are the delegates? Delegates are ften party activists, lcal plitical leaders r early supprters f a given candidate. Presidential campaigns curt lcal and state pliticians fr their slate f delegates because they typically bring the supprt f their plitical cnstituencies. Delegates can als include members f a campaign's steering cmmittee r lng-time active members f their lcal party rganizatin. Bth parties draw delegates frm elite grups with higher incmes and educatin levels. But there are differences between the parties, with Demcratic delegates cnsistently exhibiting mre diversity. In 2016, 50% f Demcratic delegates were minrities, ver 50% wmen (A1980 rule requires that half f each state delegatin be female.) and 13% identified as LGBTQ. 6% f Republican delegates were minrities and 25% were wmen.

12 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin The difference between the tw parties is stark, but at the same time it is largely indicative f the parties vter bases.

13 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Firsts fr Wmen at the Natinal Cnventins 1876 first wman t address a natinal cnventin 1890 first wmen delegates t cnventins f bth parties 1940 first wman t nminate a presidential candidate 1951 first wman asked t chair a natinal party 1972 first wman keynte speaker 1984 first majr-party wman nminated fr vice president 1996 first wives f bth nminees t make majr addresses 2000 first daughter f a presidential candidate t nminate her father 2004 first time bth candidates intrduced by their daughters 2016 first penly transgender cnventin speaker 2016 first majr-party wman nminated fr president

14 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin The cmmitted activists and party fficials wh serve as delegates are mre idelgical than their parties vters. Demcratic delegates are mre liberal than Demcratic primary vters and Republican delegates are mre cnservative than Republican primary vters. The plitical perceptins and lyalties f vters are nt greatly influenced by natinal candidates and issues, prbably due t the diminished pwer f state and lcal party leaders at the cnventin. Issues are mre imprtant t new, issue-riented party activists than t party prfessinals, wh n lnger have a mnply n managing party affairs.

15 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Changing nature f media cverage n prime time cverage n sme days extended cverage n the final day f each cnventin reflects change in plitical culture... mre interest in the candidates than the parties Cnventin still generates publicity fr the parties.

16 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Wh nminates the Vice President? Prir t the cntemprary nminatin prcess, cnventins chse the VP. Chsen t balance the ticket Tday, the VP is chsen by the presidential nminee. Presidential candidates usually annunce their chice fr vice president in the run-up t the party s natinal cnventin.

17 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Strengths and weaknesses f the nminatin prcess There have been a number f unintended cnsequences stemming frm refrms. Is there mre ppular participatin? Turnut has increased cmpared t the 1950s -1960s but nw that campaigns have t address s many vters, mney is vastly mre imprtant than it was in the mid-twentieth century. Is it mre pen? All vters are nt treated equally. IA, NH and early states have greater influence. After the first few cntests, mst candidates drp ut. Candidates wh drp ut early might be mre preferred than thse wh remain, and the persn catapulted tward the nminatin by early victries might be amng the least ppular.

18 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Strengths and weaknesses f the nminatin prcess Has media gained mre influence? Fcus is n the game, gaffes, scandals, campaign feuds, what plays t the cameras... nt the substance. Des it take t lng? Tendency tward bredm and a fcus n the trivial but the prcess is mre demcratic than it used t be, with mre peple having a say in wh becmes the nminee. Cnversely, in 2015, mre than half a dzen candidates drpped ut befre a single ballt was cast. S much fr demcracy. Des it prduce gd candidates? That s a matter f pinin t sme degree. At ne time, plitical parties culd set aside the ppular vte and select smene less divisive r mre electable. It happened a dzen times in the 20 th century.

19 Presidential Electins Stage 2: The Natinal Party Cnventin Strengths and weaknesses f the nminatin prcess Des it prduce gd candidates? Tday the main drivers f the nminating prcess are the candidates, wh select themselves t run. This selfselectin t enter a lng, difficult, expensive prcess is a prblem. Rather than selectin, we have adverse selectin: The individuals vlunteering fr president are ften precisely the persns yu wuld never want in that ffice. The impulse t make the nminating prcess mre demcratic has shaped the debate abut refrm thrughut its histry but the primary purpse f primaries evaluating the candidates deserves greater attentin than it has received.

20 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin

21 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Demcrats and Whigs in 1840: marked the first truly mdern presidential campaign... Parties were learning t appeal t a wide range f vters in a variety f vting blcks, a vast change frm the reginally-based previus electins. Demcrats published a fairly specific platfrm, the first dcument f its kind frm a majr natinal party. Whig campaign rganizatin was elabrate and prfessinal, geared tward drama and spectacle, cmpletely ignred issues. Candidates spke in public fr the first time. Campaigns made resurceful use f the prliferating mass media f the time. Campaigns created plitical persnas fr candidates that had little t d with reality, and marvelusly ingenius negative images f their ppnents.

22 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin The Autumn Campaign The fall campaign traditinally began n Labr Day, but nw tends t start right after cnventins r earlier. intense fund raising, cmbined with a new rund f public financing campaign rganizatins set up in each state media blitz fcus grups vter registratin and vter turnut campaigns infrming vters abut issues, past perfrmance, persnal characteristics Much f the campaign activity is fcused in swing states (states in which n single candidate r party has verwhelming supprt in securing that state's electral cllege vtes).

23 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Presidential debates give candidates an pprtunity t shw hw quickly and accurately they can respnd t questins and utline their gals.

24 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Debates Debates are critical in tight electins. 30 pages f rules fr the netwrks, mderatrs and candidates Ding well in a debate can level the playing field but ften candidates simply try t exceed expectatins.

25 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin third / minr parties: plitical parties ther than the Republican and Demcratic parties Seldm win due t winner-take-all nature f electins, difficulty in meeting criteria fr and paying fees fr ballt access in 50 states, exclusin frm debates and marginalizatin by majrity parties. The current largest third parties are the Libertarian and Green parties. Libertarians: active in US since 1971, always field a presidential nminee, have arund half a millin vters Greens: active in US since 2001, ften field a presidential nminee, supprt in the Pacific Cast, Upper Great Lakes and Nrtheast regins

26 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Third parties can draw attentin t issues that may be ignred by the majrity parties. If such an issue is ppular with vters, ne r mre f the majrity parties may adpt the issue. Althugh third party candidates rarely win electins, they can have an effect n them. If they d well, they are ften accused f having a spiler effect (drawing vtes frm a majr candidate with similar plitics thereby causing a strng ppnent f bth t win). Green s Ralph Nader had a significant impact n the 2000 presidential electin and a small impact in 2004.

27 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Campaign Finance 1970s -1990s: financing general electin campaigns was a simple prpsitin since it was publicly funded... hard mney (plitical cntributins that are limited in amunt and fully disclsed) was matched by public federal funds indexed fr inflatin Third party and independent candidates cannt meet the criteria t qualify fr public funding. (See previus discussin n financing presidential nminatin campaigns.) 1990s: candidates began t n lnger accept federal matching funds (and their accmpanying spending limits)

28 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin

29 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin rise f sft mney (mney cntributed by interest grups, labr unins and dnrs that was nt subject t federal regulatin because it was given t party cmmittees, nt t the candidates) 2004: sft mney given t natinal party cmmittees banned but culd still be given t lcal r state cmmittees Independent spending by grups separate frm but aligned with parties increased. plitical actin cmmittee (PAC): rganizatin that pls campaign cntributins frm members and dnates thse funds t campaign fr r against candidates, ballt initiatives, r legislatin... dnatins t and expenditures by PACs are limited by law

30 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Super PAC: may engage in unlimited plitical spending independently f the campaigns... Unlike traditinal PACs, they can raise funds frm individuals, crpratins, unins and ther grups withut any legal limit n dnatin size. 527: tax-exempt rganizatin created primarily t influence the selectin, nminatin, electin, appintment r defeat f candidates t federal, state r lcal public ffice There are n cntributin r spending limits impsed n 527s and n restrictins n wh may cntribute. They must register with the IRS, publicly disclse their dnrs and file peridic reprts f cntributins and expenditures.

31 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Because they may nt expressly advcate fr specific candidates r crdinate with any candidate s campaign, 527s are nt regulated under state r federal campaign finance laws and are used t raise mney t spend n issue advcacy and vter mbilizatin. Examples f 527s are Swift Bat Veterans fr Truth, Texans fr Truth, The Media Fund, America Cming Tgether, the Prgress fr America Vter Fund, etc.

32 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin The mst imprtant categry f general electin spending is expenditures fr electrnic media. TV and radi advertising (mstly TV) Campaign advertising is imprtant: it wrks. Research suggests that the issue-cntent in ads has increased in recent years. Ads have als grwn increasingly negative. Negative ads seem t wrk fr the candidates, but are they gd fr the public? D they help create greater plarizatin in the campaign?

33 Presidential Electins Stage 3: The General Electin Limited media influence n presidential electins Media less influential in the general electin campaign. Many vters already have the infrmatin they need t make up their minds. their wn partisan identificatin the candidate preferences f grups they like r dislike their impressins f gvernment perfrmance

34 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege

35 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege The Cnstitutin requires that the president and vice president be chsen by the Electral Cllege, cmpsed f 538 electrs (representatives f each state wh cast the ballts that actually elect the president and vice president). [ttal = ] In every state, the parties each select a slate f electrs pledged t the party s candidate, the number f which equals the state s Cngressinal delegatin (the sum f its Huse and Senate seats). DC parties select three electrs (23 rd Amendment). When vting in a presidential electin, an American vter is actually vting fr the slate f electrs fr his/her state wh pledged t supprt the candidate the vter prefers.

36 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege The slate f electrs chsen by the ppular-vte winner s party in each state is the slate that vtes in the Electral Cllege. Fr example, if the Republican candidate wins a state s ppular vte, the slate f electrs chsen by the state Republican party will vte in the Electral Cllege. Winner-take-all vting system Under mst states laws, the candidate wh wins the state s ppular vte receives all f the state s electral vtes (except in Maine and Nebraska). A win by a large margin in a state gets the same number f electral cllege vtes as a win by ne vte. The candidate wh wins the ppular vte may nt be president... electral vtes are what matter.

37 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege A majrity f 270 electral vtes is required t win the presidency. A candidate that wins the ppular vte by 1 vte each in the largest 11 states, will have 270 electral vtes. His/her ppnent may win every vte in the remaining 39 states and DC but will nly have 268 electral vtes. On the Mnday fllwing the secnd Wednesday f December, each state's electrs meet in their respective state capitals and cast their electral vtes, ne fr president and ne fr vice president.

38 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege The electral vtes are sealed and transmitted frm each state t the president f the Senate wh, n January 6 th, pens and reads them befre bth huses f Cngress. The candidate fr president with at least 270 electral vtes wins. In the event that n ne wins a majrity f electral vtes fr president, the Huse f Representatives selects the president frm amng the tp three cntenders (Jhn Quincy Adams in 1824), and the Senate chses the vice president.

39 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege What led t such an unusual methd fr electing a president? In the late 1700s, it was difficult t learn infrmatin abut candidates because there was n effective cmmunicatin. The delegates t the cnstitutinal cnventin knew that rural farmers in the new natin wuldn t knw much abut plitics. A few f the delegates, including Wilsn and Madisn, preferred ppular electin f the president but mst did nt trust the unreliable nature f ppular electins. Cnversely, nne f the delegates wanted a methd that wuld give pwer t a small grup. Initially cnsidered giving Cngress the pwer t chse the president but feared that wuld limit the executive s ability t be an independent branch. The Electral Cllege was the result f cmprmise n these issues.

40 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege Three essentials t understanding the design f the Electral Cllege: intended t wrk withut plitical parties, which did nt exist at that time intended t cver bth the nminating and electing phases f presidential selectin intended t prduce a nnpartisan president Cngressinal Caucus ( ): With n cnsensus n a successr t Washingtn when he retired after tw terms as president, newly frmed plitical parties quickly asserted cntrl ver the prcess. In 1796, caucuses f the parties cngressinal delegatins began meeting infrmally t nminate their presidential and vice presidential candidates, leaving the general public with n direct input.

41 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege Cngressinal Caucus ( ) The demise in the 1810s f the Federalist Party, which failed even t nminate a presidential candidate in 1820, made nminatin by the Demcratic-Republican caucus tantamunt t electin as president. King Caucus evked widespread resentment, even frm sme members f the Demcratic-Republican caucus. By 1824 it had fallen int disrepute and Andrew Jacksn s electin in 1828 guaranteed its end. The bitter electin f 1800 between President Jhn Adams and Vice President Thmas Jeffersn led t a crisis ver the inability t distinguish between the selectin f the president and the vice president, and resulted in the passage f the 12 th Amendment (1804), which prvided fr separate electins fr each ffice, with each electr having nly ne vte t cast fr each ffice.

42 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege The cartgram abve sizes states based n the number f electral vtes each has.

43 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege Apprtinment matters. Representatin f states in the Electral Cllege is altered after the census every ten years t reflect ppulatin shifts. Recent apprtinment has favred Republican-leaning states. While winning the ppular vte may nt ensure a candidate's victry, a candidate must gain ppular supprt f a particular state t win the vtes in that state. Vters elect the peple wh elect the president.

44 Presidential Electins Stage 4: The Electral Cllege The Electral Cllege survives fr a number f reasns. It s difficult t amend the Cnstitutin. Small states (smetimes big states) are cnvinced they derive a significant advantage frm the Electral Cllege. The harm it allegedly causes is largely theretical.

45 Presidential Electins Electral Cllege Prs Ensures states play a rle in electin f president. Makes candidates spend time campaigning in bth big and smaller cities in battlegrund states. In very clse electins, recunts will usually be cnfined t a state, rather than an acrss-the-cuntry recunt. A single vte matters mre in an Electral Cllege system than in a ppular vte system. Little states matter mre. The whle cuntry shuld decide wh the president will be, nt a big metrplitan area deciding the entire electin. Ablishing Electral Cllege system ges against cnstitutin. Gives the states mre pwer against the federal gvernment. Unrestrained majrity rule wuld undermine federalism. Helps prevent a strng, charismatic persn frm using ppular supprt t gain pwer.

46 Presidential Electins Electral Cllege Cns The winner might nt be the candidate wh received the mst ppular vtes, calling int questin the legitimacy f the new president. Direct electins seen as mre cnsistent with demcratic principles. Candidates fcus mre n battlegrund states and ignre states they are ging t win r lse. A direct ppular vte wuld frce candidates t campaign and advertise natinwide. Electrs can vte against a state s vters. The winning candidate gets all f a state s electral vtes n matter hw narrw the win. A candidate can get the mst ppular vtes and still lse the electin. Sme peple s vtes matter mre than thers. Small states matter mre than they shuld. The winner f the electin culd be decided befre west cast even vtes. Discurages third parties.

47 Presidential Electins Refrming the Electral Cllege prprtinal allcatin f electral vtes: Keep the Cllege and split each state s electral vtes in accrdance with candidates ppular vte percentages. keep the Cllege, change the electrs: Frce electrs in jurisdictins pssessing at least 270 electral vtes t supprt the candidate wh wins the natinal ppular vte. natinal bnus methd: Keep the Cllege but award 102 extra electral vtes as a bnus t the winner f the natinal ppular vte. fifty states with equal ppulatin: Keep the Cllege but redivide the fifty states int 50 states f equal ppulatin. Cngressinal district methd: Keep the Cllege and divide electral vtes by district, giving ne vte t the winner f each district and tw bnus vtes t the statewide ppular vte winner.

48 Presidential Electins Refrming the Electral Cllege return pwer t state legislatures: Keep the Cllege but g back t riginal methd in which state legislatures chse all presidential electrs. direct plurality vte: Ablish the Cllege. In a direct electin, the candidate wh receives the mst vtes natinwide wuld win, with r withut a majrity f the vtes. direct electin with instant runff vting (IRV): Ablish the Cllege. In a direct electin, vters rank their preferences rather than marking nly ne candidate. If n single candidate has a majrity, the candidate with the lwest number f vtes is eliminated and ballts are cunted again, this time tallying the secnd chice vtes frm thse ballts whse first chice was the eliminated candidate. The prcess is repeated until a candidate receives a majrity.

49 Presidential Electins

50 Presidential Electins Term Limits 22 nd Amendment N persn shall be elected t the ffice f the President mre than twice, and n persn wh has held the ffice f President, r acted as President, fr mre than tw years f a term t which sme ther persn was elected President shall be elected t the ffice f the President mre than nce. But this Article shall nt apply t any persn hlding the ffice f President when this Article was prpsed by the Cngress, and shall nt prevent any persn wh may be hlding the ffice f President, r acting as President, during the term within which this Article becmes perative frm hlding the ffice f President r acting as President during the remainder f such term.

51 Cntinued in Electins 101 Part III