MID-TERM REVIEW AND OUTLINE

Transcription

1 MEXICAN POLITICS POLS 3317 MID-TERM REVIEW AND OUTLINE Intrductin PRI, PRD, PAN Gegraphy: size, map, regins, majr cities. tpgraphy Ppulatin: size, primate cities, grwth, ethnicities, language, religin, assimilatin Develpment gals Plitical stability & demcracy Ecnmic grwth & equity Fur Characteristics f Behaviralism Explain and Predict Explain the 1988 pening up and predict the next stage Observe Indirect. Hw d we bserve a majr phenmenn such as regime change? Gather the facts (descriptin) independent and dependent variables ecnmic liberalizatin and plitical liberalizatin Quantify Everything is measured (numbers). Are sme variables cmpletely subjective? Hw d we measure plitical liberalizatin in Mexic 1988? 2000? Therize Prduce theries (predictin equatins, etc.). Lwer-level. Time- and spacespecific. Trade liberalizatin f 1980s prduced the demcratic utcmes f the next decade r s. Dependency Freign Relatins Mexican-American War Maximilian Revlutin Mader Vera Cruz Villa Ecnmic Dependency Trade External sectr verall Gegraphic cncentratin 1 r 2 primary prduct exprts Capital Private Public Deterirating terms f trade Decapitalizatin Late Develpment Demnstratin effect Revlutin f rising expectatins Capital accumulatin Scial security Inapprpriate technlgy

2 Primate city phenmenn Ppulatin grwth Strategies fr Develpment Cnservative mdernizatin, mnetarism, austerity Prgressive mdernizatin, structuralism Revlutinary mdernizatin, autarchy, equity Theries f Regime Change 1950s sci-ecnmic prerequisites f demcracy 1960s hard stage f industrializatin, austerity, and authritarianism curvilinear relatinship between ecnmic and plitical develpment 1980s return t demcracy and the exit f military regimes cycles, prerequisites Experimental Research Designs Manipulatin (ex pst fact). We select scenaris after the fact that fit ur design: e.g., cmpare tw states that are rughly equivalent in critical variables, but ne has undergne ur treatment and the ther has nt. Cmparisn (cncmitant variatin). We cmpare acrss time (befre and after, r pretest and pst-test ) and we cmpare acrss grups (experimental grup cmpared t cntrl grup). We want the grups t be as similar as pssible in terms f all critical variables except fr the treatment. Internal validity: Des the test prve what we think it des? Or: d ther factrs explain the results Intrinsic factrs: Factrs internal t the design, e.g., histry, maturatin, natural learning use a cntrl grup t islate these. Extrinsic factrs: Factrs external t the design, e.g., the tw grups are nt equivalent. External validity: Can we generalize frm these findings t ther situatins? Evlutin f Plitical Institutins Pre-Clnial Aztecs and Tenchtitlan Mctezuma and Cuahtemc Clnial Hernan Crtes, 1519 Advantages Quetzalcatl Malinche Clnial administratin: centralized, autcratic, trade mnply Rle f the Church Independence Sept. 16, 1810, 2am, Father Miguel Hidalg and the Grit de Dlres Crills Eleven year struggle Plitical Instability, General Antni Lpez de Santa Ana Liberal and Cnservatives 50 presidencies, 35 led by army fficers U.S.-Mexican War, , War f the Nrth American Invasin 1848 Treaty f Guadalupe Hidalg 1853 Gadsden Purchase La Refrma 1857 Cnstitutin Benit Juarez (1860+)

3 French and Maximilian (1862) defeated Prfiri Diaz rebels and assumes pwer Prfiriat, Administratin ver Plitics cientifics, psitivists, Jse Limantur freign investment and exprts f raw materials Plitical repressin (rurales) 1900 strikes 1908 interview June, 1910 electin Revlutin, , Francisc Mader jailed and escaped, Plan de San Luis Ptsi May, 1911, Diaz resigns Octber, 1911, Mader elected unleashed a tiger and culd nt cntrl it Emilian Zapata in Mrels Panch Villa in the nrth February, 1913 cunter-revlutin Victrian Huerta Mader killed U.S. cmplicity Zapata, Villa, and Venustian Carranza rebel Wilsn and Veracruz July, 1914 Huerta resigns Villa and Zapata briefly in Mexic City Late-1915 Alvar Obregn (under Carranza) defeats Villa Carranza in pwer U.S. recgnitin Villa Clumbus, New Mexic Pershing 1917 Cnstitutinal Cnventin at Queretar secularizatin, state sub-sil rights, exprpriatin, labr rights Zapata killed by Carranza frces in 1919 Carranza killed by fllwers f Obregn in 1920 Revlutin is ver Era f Cnslidatin, Obregón--cnsummate plitician Calles--Crister rebellin Obregón killed Calles decides: (1) n re-electin; (2) PNR Calles puppets Lázar Cárdenas--independent--Calles exiled agrarian refrm natinalizatins 1938 PRM Institutinalizatin f the Revlutin Manuel Avila Camach, PRI Miguel Alemán, mst cnservative Adlf Ruiz Crtines, balanced Adlf López Mates, leftist within the Revlutin, 1958 rail-rad strike repressed Gustav Díaz Ordaz, mst repressive, Tlatellc Luis Echeverría, ppulism, natinalism, state expenditures, ecnmic prblems Ecnmic Crisis, Jsé López Prtill, il, crruptin, bank natinalizatins, debt, default Miguel de la Madrid, ecnmic austerity Plitical Pluralism, 1988 and Onward Carls Salinas de Grtari Ernest Zedill Vicente Fx Felipe Caldern

4 Measurement Levels Nminal just differences r categries mathematical prperties f equal r nt equal. Examples: gender, party identificatin, idelgy, religin, etc. (with all just simple categries). Ordinal rank rdering mathematical prperties f equal r nt equal, and greater r lesser than. Examples: religin ranked by level f strictness, age by yung r ld, etc. Interval/Rati we knw the intervals between we can nw add and subtract, and (fr rati) divide and multiply (half as much, twice as much). Examples: number f vtes, percentages, dllars, ettc. Errr: the gap between the true cncept and ur measured indicatr Validity systematic, nn-randm errr we systematically ver- r underrepresent the true cncept. Are we measuring what we think we are measuring? Excellent example is predictive validity. Des the SAT predict success in cllege? Reliability randm errr Cut twice and measure nce. Can we replicate and achieve the same results. Excellent example is cding errr. Survey Research Sampling Thery Standard Errr f the Sample Mean Functin f sample size and variance Calculatin Σ( xi x) S. E. ( x) = n( n 1) C. I. = ± 1.96[ S. E. ( x) ] 2 Frmulas Example f calculating the Standard Errr Sampling Designs Nn-Prbability we d nt knw the prbability f selecting any ne sampling unit Cnvenience the sample is cnvenient t us. Example: this class, persn n the street, etc. Purpsive a cnvenient sample that we utilize fr a stated purpse. Example: this class as it represents all POLS majrs. Quta select (cnveniently) sampling units t represent certain percentages f particular variables. Example: certain percentages f men and wmen, certain percentages f Demcrats and Republicans, etc. Prbability Simple Randm lttery r randm numbers table Interval select at certain intervals Cluster multi-stage, gegraphic, randmly select within each. Example: SMSAs, t census tracts, t individuals Survey Administratin Persnal Interviews high respnse rate, high degree f cntrl, very expensive, pssibility f interviewer bias Mail Interviews lw respnse rate, lw degree f cntrl, least expensive, least degree f bias Phne Interviews essentially the cmprmise in terms f respnse rate, cntrl, cst, and bias. Prblem f actually reaching the interviewee.

5 Mexican Plitical Parties PRI Organized by 3 sectrs Party machine Cntrl and/r cptatin Plitical balance Pendulum effect Cnservative dmestic vs. leftist freign plicy Myth f the revlutin Challenges Tecnics vs. plitics Transfer f pwer every six years Inability t cntinue delivering the ecnmic miracle Pent-up demands fr internal and external demcratizatin PAN 1939, rts in backlash t anti-clericalism f the 1920s Business, nrth, urban, middle-class Independent Prtest vte? Legitimizes the PRI? PRD Evlved frm mid-1980s leftist split frm PRI Cuauhtemc Cardenas Urban, Mexic City Greatest threat t the PRI? Electral System 1918, Federal Electin Law, literate and married males 18 r ver OR literate and unmarried males 21 r ver 1946, Federal Electin Law, difficult fr new parties 1953, wmen granted right t vte 1963, party deputies (prprtinal representatin) majrity rule in single-member district in 178 electral districts any party with less than 20% f natinal vte qualifies fr party deputies 1977, Chamber increased t were traditinal majrity deputies 100 were elected by prprtinal representatin frm five reginal party lists (if the party had less than 60 majrity seats and had candidates in at least 100 f the single districts). 1986, expanded t 200 prprtinal representatin seats, but majrity party can win a share f the 200 (thugh its ttal cannt exceed 350 f the 500). Interest Grups and the State Authritarianism and Pluralism Status in the PRI and Degree f Cntrl: Labr, Peasants, Ppular, Military, Media, and Private Sectr