Not so fast 2014 Congressional Battleground very competitive

Transcription

1 Not so fast 2014 Congressional Battleground very competitive First survey suggests Republicans just as vulnerable as 2012 cycle and Democrats can make net gains June 20, 2013

2 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a unique survey of 1,250 likely 2014 voters in the most competitive Congressional seats across the country, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The battleground is comprised of a total of 80 districts: 750 interviews conducted in 49 Republican-held districts Tier 1 (375 interviews): the 24 most competitive Republican districts Tier 2 (375 interviews): the 25 next most competitive reach Republican districts 500 interviews conducted in 31 most competitive Democratic-held districts This survey was conducted from June 6-12, 2013 using a list of 2010 voters and new registrants. Some questions were asked only in Democratic-held or Republican-held seats. For questions asked of all respondents, the margin of error = +/- 2.77% at 95% confidence. For questions asked just in Republican districts, the margin of error = +/- 3.58% at 95% confidence. For questions asked in just Democratic districts, the margin of error = +/- 4.38% at 95% confidence.

3 3 The Battleground: background The Democracy Corps Congressional battleground research is one of a kind. Nobody else conducts a poll only in the most competitive Democratic and Republican seats, using the actual names of the incumbents in each district. This survey is a very conservative estimate of likely 2014 voters with respondents selected off of a voter list who voted in the 2010 off-year election or new registrants with a high intention to vote in Only 9 percent of these voters are under 30; only 5 percent are Latino and 5 percent African American. We took account of population growth in our weighting, but these are 2010 voters. We include comparisons to results from past battleground surveys from prior election cycles when one party saw their majority reduced or increased. We compare results for the most competitive seats but note that the districts are not the same. There is every reason to believe that Republicans will have a reduced majority after 2014.

4 Battleground Tier 1 -- the 24 most competitive Republican districts District Representative 2012 Presidential margin 2012 Congressional margin CA-10 Jeff Denham Obama CA-21 David Valadao Obama CA-31 Gary Miller Obama CO-6 Mike Coffman Obama FL-10 Dan Webster Romney FL-13 Bill Young Obama FL-2 Steve Southerland Romney IA-3 Tom Latham Obama IL-13 Rodney Davis Romney IN-2 Jackie Walorski Romney KY-6 Andy Barr Romney MI-1 Dan Benishek Romney MI-7 Tim Walberg Romney MN-2 John Kline Obama NE-2 Lee Terry Romney NV-3 Joe Heck Obama NY-11 Michael Grimm Obama NY-19 Chris Gibson Obama NY-23 Tom Reed Romney OH-14 David Joyce Romney OH-7 Bob Gibbs Romney PA-8 Mike Fitzpatrick Romney WI-7 Sean Duffy Romney WV-2 OPEN (Capito) Romney

5 Battleground Tier 2 -- the 25 next most competitive Republican districts District Representative 2012 Presidential margin 2012 Congressional margin AR-1 Rick Crawford Romney AR-2 Tim Griffin Romney CA-25 Buck McKeon Romney FL-16 Vern Buchanan Romney IA-4 Steve King Romney IN-8 Larry Bucshon Romney MI-11 Kerry Bentivolio Romney MI-3 Justin Amash Romney MI-8 Mike Rogers Romney MN-3 Erik Paulsen Obama MT-AL Steve Daines Romney NC-9 Robert Pittenger Romney NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo Obama NJ-3 Jon Runyan Obama NJ-5 Scott Garrett Romney NM-2 Stevan Pearce Romney NY-2 Peter King Obama OH-16 Jim Renacci Romney OH-6 Bill Johnson Romney PA-12 Keith Rothfus Romney PA-6 Jim Gerlach Romney PA-7 Pat Meehan Romney VA-2 Scott Rigell Obama WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler Romney WI-8 Reid Ribble Romney

6 Battleground: the 31 Democratic districts District Representative 2012 Presidential margin 2012 Congressional margin AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick Romney AZ-2 Ron Barber Romney AZ-9 Kyrsten Sinema Obama CA-24 Lois Capps Obama CA-26 Julia Brownley Obama CA-3 John Garamendi Obama CA-36 Raul Ruiz Obama CA-52 Scott Peters Obama CA-7 Ami Bera Obama CT-5 Elizabeth Esty Obama FL-18 Patrick Murphy Romney FL-26 Joe Garcia Obama GA-12 John Barrow Romney IL-10 Brad Schneider Obama IL-12 Bill Enyart Obama IL-17 Cheri Bustos Obama MA-6 John Tierney Obama MN-7 Collin Peterson Romney MN-8 Rick Nolan Obama NC-7 Mike McIntyre Romney NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter Obama NH-2 Ann McLane Kuster Obama NV-4 Steven Horsford Obama NY-1 Tim Bishop Obama NY-18 Sean Maloney Obama NY-21 Bill Owens Obama NY-24 Dan Maffei Obama TX-23 Pete Gallego Romney UT-4 Jim Matheson Romney WA-1 Suzan DelBene Obama WV-3 Nick Rahall Romney

7 Battleground Districts: by type Rural Upscale Rural New Hampshire-2 (D) New York-19 (R) Downscale Rural Arkansas-1 (R) Iowa-4 (R) Michigan-1 (R) Minnesota-7 (D) Minnesota-8 (D) Montana-AL (R) New York-21 (D) North Carolina-7 (D) Ohio-6 (R) West Virginia-2 (R) West Virginia-3 (D) Wisconsin-7 (R) Exurban Upscale Exurban Michican-7 (R) New York-23 (R) Downscale Exurban Arizona-1 (D) Illinois-13 (R) Indiana-2 (R) Indiana-8 (R) New Mexico-2 (R) Wisconsin-8 (R) Suburban Upscale Suburban Arizona-2 (D) California-24 (D) California-25 (R) California-26 (D) California-7 (D) Colorado-6 (R) Connecticut-5 (D) Florida-16 (R) Florida-26 (D) Illinois-10 (D) Massachusetts-6 (D) Michigan-8 (R) Michigan-11 (R) Minnesota-2 (R) Minnesota-3 (R) Nevada-3 (R) New Hampshire-1 (D) New Jersey-3 (R) New Jersey-5 (R) New York-1 (D) New York-18 (D) New York-2 (R) Ohio-14 (R) Suburban Upscale Suburban Pennsylvania-6 (R) Pennsylvania-7 (R) Pennsylvania-8 (R) Pennsylvania-12 (R) Utah-4 (D) Washington-1 (D) Downscale Suburban Arkansas-2 (R) California-3 (D) California-21 (R) California-31 (R) California-36 (D) Florida-13 (R) Florida-18 (D) New Jersey-2 (R) Ohio-7 (R) Ohio-16 (R) Metro Upscale Metro Arizona-9 (D) California-10 (R) California-52 (D) Florida-10 (R) Iowa-3 (R) Michigan-3 (R) New York-24 (D) North Carolina-9 (R) Washington-3 (R) Downscale Metro Florida-2 (R) Georgia-12 (D) Illinois-12 (D) Illinois-17 (D) Kentucky-6 (R) Texas-23 (D) Urban Upscale Urban Nebraska-2 (R) New York-11 (R) Virginia-2 (R) Downscale Urban Nevada-4 (D) *Note: Some new district typologies were unavailable due to redistricting. Such districts were estimated based on the majority of the makeup of the old district.

8 8 Key findings Why are Republicans at risk? 6 reasons: Tea Party Republican Party brand Gridlock and fight with Obama Obsession with repealing health care For the rich and won t tax Seniors

9 9 Key findings Why Democrats will mostly hold their seats: Concentration of Democratic lead in suburban and Obama seats Seniors Disdain for Republicans and Tea Party Health care Job approval of incumbents in most difficult areas

10 The Republican Battleground

11 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted with party identification. Generic challengers were inserted as The Democratic Candidate results are from actual votes in these districts in the November election. 11 Republicans have lost real ground in their battleground seats, despite a 2014 likely electorate I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican Republican-held districts November 2012 Actual Vote June Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

12 *Note: Incumbent names were inserted with party identification. Generic challengers were inserted as The Democratic Candida te. 12 With Republican incumbents at only 43 percent in most competitive seats, Republicans will face real losses I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)? Democrat Republican Republican districts Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

13 13 Republicans at same margin at this point as in 2007 and Democrats in 2009 when both lost big I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)? Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican June Republican seats (Reps lost 23 seats 58%) July Democratic seats (Dems lost 36 seats 90%) March Republican seats (Reps lost 13 seats 26%) June Republican seats

14 14 And in most competitive seats, GOP members more vulnerable than past cycles when lost at least 44% of seats I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)? Tier 1: most competitive seats Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican June 2007 Rep Tier 1: 20 districts (Reps lost 12 seats 60%) July 2009 Dem Tier 1: 20 districts (Dems lost 20 seats 100%) March 2011 Rep Tier 1: 25 districts (Reps lost 11 seats 44%) June 2013 Rep Tier 1: 24 districts

15 Why? Republican brand in trouble and trails Democrats in these new Republican battleground seats 15 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 49.8 Mean: 40.2 Mean: 45.5 Mean: 42.8 Mean: 42.9 Mean: 40.7 Net: +3 Net: -18 Net: -6 Net: -12 Net: -14 Net: Barack Obama John Boehner Democratic Party Republican Party Democrats in Congress Republican Congress

16 GOP problem same as last cycle when lost 18 seats despite shift to new more Republican battleground *Note: Trend data compares total Republican-held districts in each poll. Does not consist of exactly the same make-up of districts. 16 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 45.9 Mean: 44.7 Net: -5 Net: Mean: 47.7 Mean: 45.5 Mean: 46.0 Mean: 43.1 Mean: 43.7 Mean: 42.8 Net: +1 Net: -6 Net: -6 Net: -14 Net: -10 Net: Election 2012 Election Mar 2011 July 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013 Mar 2011 July 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013 Democratic Party Republican Party

17 17 Approval rating of GOP incumbents now lower than at like points in prior cycles when one party faced real losses Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S. Congress? Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Don't know App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK June 2007 July 2009 March 2011 June Republican seats 40 Democratic seats 50 Republican seats 49 Republican seats (Reps lost 23 seats 58%) (Dems lost 36 seats 90%) (Reps lost 13 seats 26%)

18 18 Republicans in most competitive seats weaker than predecessors in prior cycles Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S. Congress? Tier 1: most competitive seats Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Don't know App Disapp DK App Disapp DK App Disapp DK July 2009 March 2011 June 2013 Dem Tier 1: 20 districts Rep Tier 1: 25 districts Rep Tier 1: 24 districts (Dems lost 20 seats 100%) (Reps lost 11 seats 44%)

19 19 Can t re-elect incumbent number higher than 2010 cycle when lost many seats Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. I CAN'T vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because we need new people that will fix Washington and get things done. I WILL vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because (he/she) is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us. Even Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect July 2009 March 2011 June Democratic seats 50 Republican seats 49 Republican seats (Dems lost 36 seats 90%) (Reps lost 13 seats 26%)

20 And in most competitive seats, significantly more say can t re-elect their GOP member Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. I CAN'T vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because we need new people that will fix Washington and get things done. Tier 1: most competitive seats I WILL vote to reelect (HOUSE INCUMBENT) in 2014 because (he/she) is doing a good job and addressing issues that are important to us Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect Can't re-elect Will re-elect July 2009 March 2011 June 2013 Dem Tier 1: 20 districts Rep Tier 1: 25 districts Rep Tier 1: 24 districts (Dems lost 20 seats 100%) (Reps lost 11 seats 44%) 20

21 21 Seniors a big story in GOP battleground; pulling back from GOP in major way I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)? Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Seniors White seniors 50 and over White 50 and over

22 Work to do among Rising American Electorate I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or Republican (HOUSE INCUMBENT)? Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Minority Youth (under 30) 22

23 23 Critical target: unmarried women vote favor Democrats, but question of turnout How closely have you been following news about politics and Congress -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely Total Independents Seniors Rising American Electorate White noncollege Unmarried women

24 Democrats have more winnable voters in these Republican districts Democrat Not Democrat Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable Republican Not Republican Loyalist Supporter Conditional Vulnerable Winnable In Reach Peripheral Unreachable 24

25 25 Last year, battle of messages and attacks yielded no shift in GOP seats I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Now, let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Republican July 2012 Republican Districts Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

26 26 And no shift in most competitive seats I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Now, let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress this November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Tier 1 Democrat Republican July Republican Districts Democrat Republican Democrat Republican

27 But now, Democrats move ahead in most competitive and to even in the rest suggesting potential for bigger gains Now let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Initial vote Re-vote after hearing balanced debate Initial vote Re-vote after hearing balanced debate 27

28 The Republican Congress defined

29 29 The voters think Republicans are in control in the US Congress Do you know which political party controls the U.S. Congress? Do you believe it is the Democrats or the Republicans? Republican-held seats 63% Yes, Republicans Yes, split Yes, Democrats No

30 Big turn against Tea Party despite in more Republican districts *Note: Trend data compares total Republican-held districts in each poll. Does not consist of exactly the same make-up of districts. 30 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Mean: 41.8 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) The Tea Party Mean: 41.0 Mean: 38.1 Net: -12 Net: Net: Election July 2012 Oct 2012 June 2013

31 31 By 2 to 1 voters in most competitive seats think Democrats better than GOP on putting progress ahead of partisanship Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Putting progress ahead of partisanship Dem much better Rep much better Dem better Rep better Dem better Rep better Dem better Rep better Republican-held districts Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2

32 Dramatic rise in voters in GOP districts wanting House incumbent to work with President Obama Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try and work with President Obama to address our country's problems. I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try to stop President Obama from advancing his agenda for the country Election Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama July 2012 Oct June 2013 Republican Districts Republican Districts Republican Districts 32

33 In most competitive seats, more than two-thirds say work with Obama, 56 percent strongly Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try and work with President Obama to address our country's problems. I want (HOUSE INCUMBENT) to try to stop President Obama from advancing his agenda for the country. 54 Tier 1: most competitive seats Election Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama Work with Obama Stop Obama July 2012 Oct June 2013 Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 1 33

34 Voters show no interest in Republican who says won t vote for tax increases in these GOP seats Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. I want to vote for a Member of Congress who will ask the wealthiest to pay a greater share of taxes to address our problems and reduce the deficit. I want to vote for a Member of Congress who will ask the wealthiest to pay a greater share of taxes to invest in the middle class and reduce the deficit. I agree with (HOUSE INCUMBENT) who says (he/she) won't vote for any tax increase. I agree with (HOUSE INCUMBENT) who says (he/she) won't vote for any tax increase Ask wealthy/address problems and deficit No tax increase Ask wealthy/middle class and deficit Republican-held districts No tax increase 34

35 35 Republicans defined by protecting rich and anti-obama gridlock Now let me read you a list of concerns some people have about the Republican control of Congress. After I read them, please tell me which THREE of the following are the biggest concerns in your own mind about the Republican control of Congress. Republican-held seats Side with the richest and big corporations and protecting their breaks and low taxes Protect the rich and big corporations ahead of middle class So uncompromising that Washington is gridlocked Only focused on blocking Obama's agenda Impose their religious views on issues like contraception and education Support budget cuts that are slowing the economy and hurting job growth Prioritize cutting Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid Support budget cuts that hurt the most vulnerable Block opportunities for minorities, women and gays Consumed with Tea Party agenda Have an agenda that would take us back to the 1950s Percent saying biggest concern (top 3)

36 36 GOP out of touch on Planned Parenthood in these Republican battleground seats Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 54.4 Net: +17 Mean: 56.3 Net: Planned Parenthood Total Republican districts Women

37 37 Biggest concerns about Democrats? All about spending and total government control Now let me read you a list of concerns some people have about Democrats if they were to control Congress. After I read them, please tell me which THREE of the following are the biggest concerns in your own mind about Democrats if they were to control Congre ss. Republican-held seats Percent saying biggest concern (top 3) Big increases in government spending and higher deficits Total government control with no checks and balances Government takeover of the health care system Unwilling to reform Social Security and Medicare to save them for future generations Would take away Second Amendment right to bear arms Extreme environment agenda keeps from developing American energy and jobs Don't stand up for middle class Americans Promote abortion rights that undermine the family

38 The attacks and vulnerabilities

39 39 Best attacks on Republicans: not standing up for women, gone Washington and Medicare Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT). After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT). Very serious doubts Serious doubts (WOMEN) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to eliminate the Violence Against Women Act, which protects women against domestic violence, sexual assault and rape, and fought to prevent the bill from even getting a vote (PERKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to protect taxpayer funded perks for travel, meals and chauffeurs for Members of Congress, refusing to scale back their own budgets when Americans are scaling back theirs (BACKGROUND CHECKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) would not even allow a vote in the House to require background checks to purchase a gun even after the families of the victims of the Sandy Hook Elementary shooting appealed to (him/her) (MEDICARE W/ BREAKS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to end Medicare as we know it, turning it into a voucher program, massively cutting health care benefits for seniors, forcing them to pay 64 hundred dollars more a year for their health care, while giving tax breaks to millionaires, big oil, and companies that ship jobs overseas

40 Next tier of attacks, but food stamps and low-wage worker biggest impact on vote in model 40 Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT). After I read each one, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (REPUBLICAN HOUSE INCUMBENT). Very serious doubts Serious doubts (PAYCHECK FAIRNESS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted against equal pay for equal work, allowing employers to pay men a higher salary than women based solely on gender and not job performance (STUDENT LOANS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to double the interest rate on student loans, forcing middle class families and students already burdened with debt to pay another 5 thousand dollars more in out-ofpocket costs for their college education. (LOW-WAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted against increasing the minimum wage from seven to ten dollars an hour and voted to eliminate overtime pay for working families, many of whom rely on overtime pay to make ends meet, cutting a worker's paycheck by up to 10 percent and pushing more working families into poverty (FOOD STAMPS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT) voted to cut food stamps by 20 billion dollars, leaving nearly 50 million Americans, including over 16 million children, faced with the risk of going hungry each day

41 41 Republican attacks weaker in these Republican districts Now I'm going to read you some things that some people might say about the Democrats in Congress. After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about the Democrats in Congress. (MEDICARE) Democrats in Congress supported President Obama's plan that raided 716 billion dollars from Medicare, changing the program forever, and used that money to pay for Obamacare, the massive government takeover of the healthcare system, jeopardizing coverage for seniors who have paid into Medicare for years. (OBAMACARE) Democrats in Congress supported President Obama's trillion dollar government takeover of our health care system, which will raise the cost of health insurance premiums by as much as 30 percent, increase taxes, and force small businesses to drop plans entirely or lay off workers, all while making it harder for people to see their doctors and get access to quality care. (SPENDING) Democrats in Congress repeatedly voted for higher spending that have devastated our economy, including Obama's failed 1 trillion dollar stimulus plan, which hasn't created jobs, increased our debt, and will cost our children their economic future. Very serious doubts Somewhat serious doubts (KEYSTONE/ENERGY) Democrats in Congress pursued a radical environmental agenda, opposing efforts to increase energy production by blocking the Keystone pipeline, attacking coal, and restricting access to offshore drilling, driving up energy and gas prices which are at their highest in 150 years. (ANTI-BUSINESS) Democrats in Congress repeatedly voted for an antibusiness, job killing agenda. Obamacare is filled with new red tape, mandates and higher costs on small businesses, and a new energy tax and environmental regulations would drive up costs for manufacturers

42 The health care battle

43 It s simple: voters prefer Democrats by big margin on who should handle health care reform in most competitive seats Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Health care reform Dems much better Reps much better Dems Reps Dems Reps Dems Reps Republican Districts Tier 1 Republican Tier 2 Republican 43

44 44 Voters in most competitive districts strongly in favor of implementation over repeal, with stronger intensity Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should implement and improve the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. +8 Even Implement Repeal Implement Repeal Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2

45 45 And voters in Democratic battleground support implementing and improving/fixing the health care reform few for repeal Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should implement and improve the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. We should implement and fix the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. Democratic-held districts Implement/ Improve Repeal Implement/ Fix Repeal

46 46 Unmarried women and Rising American Electorate strongly favor implementing law Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should implement and improve the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law Republican-held districts Implement Repeal Implement Repeal Unmarried women RAE

47 47 Seniors and swing voters across all Republican districts favor implementation over repeal Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should implement and fix the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. Republican-held districts Implement Repeal Implement Repeal Seniors White Seniors

48 *Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, the Republican Congress was inserted. 48 Democrats strongest attacks focus on specific benefits of law and services for women Now I'm going to read you a few statements that some people might say about the efforts of (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) to repeal the health care law. After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress ).* Very serious doubts (SPECIFIC COVERAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) voted to put insurance companies back in charge of your health care, allowing them to once again be able to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions, drop your coverage if you become sick, and allow insurance companies to impose lifetime limits. (WOMEN) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) voted to put insurance companies back in charge of your health care, allowing them to once again discriminate against women by charging women higher rates than men, not cover mammograms, screenings for cervical cancer, birth control and other services. (NEW COVERAGE) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) voted to deny health care coverage, for the first time for many, to over 30 million lowwage workers and vulnerable families earning less than 16,000 dollars per year, including many female-headed families, children, and people with disabilities. (MOVE ON/NO SOLUTIONS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) has voted to repeal the health care law 37 times, wasting time and 50 million dollars from taxpayers, refusing to offer any solutions. Instead of focusing on the economy and getting people back to work, (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) wants to refight the same old battles. Serious doubts

49 *Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, the Republican Congress was inserted. 49 And attacks raise serious doubts among key groups Now I'm going to read you a few statements that some people might say about the efforts of (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) to repeal the health care law. After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress ).* Very serious doubts Specific coverage Women Specific coverage Women Seniors Suburban

50 *Note: In Republican districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Democratic districts, the Republican Congress was inserted. 50 Especially among unmarried women; very serious doubts reach near 50% Now I'm going to read you a few statements that some people might say about the efforts of (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress) to repeal the health care law. After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/the Republican Congress ).* Very serious doubts Specific coverage Women New coverage Move on/no solutions Unmarried women

51 *Note: In Democratic districts, the incumbent name was inserted. In Republican districts, Democrats in Congress was inserted. 51 Best attacks on Democrats the IRS scandal and bigger deficits Now I'm going to read you a few statements about the health care reform law that some people might say about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress). After I read each statement, please tell me whether this raises very serious doubts, seriou s doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress ).* Very serious doubts Serious doubts (IRS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted to put the IRS in charge of your health care, giving the same agency that is currently under investigation for targeting ordinary Americans for their political beliefs the power to collect penalties, taxes and fines related to the health care law. (INCREASE DEFICIT) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) have already run up record deficits. Obamacare would bankrupt the country with an estimated one point seven-five trillion dollars more in deficit spending, which will be paid for by cutting Medicare for seniors, and raising taxes on individuals and small businesses. (TAXES) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted for the new health care law which contains at least 20 new taxes totaling 500 billion dollars, including new taxes on insurance companies, which will be passed on to consumers. (RAISE COSTS) (HOUSE INCUMBENT/Democrats in Congress) voted for the new health care law which will raise premiums by as much as 30 percent for working people who already have health insurance and will force companies to drastically scale back health benefits for their employees

52 52 After attacks on health care reform, GOP gets to just even on best approach, but still loses in most competitive seats Overall, do you find yourself wanting to go with the Democrats' or Republicans' approach on health care reform? Dem approach much more Rep approach much more Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Republican-held districts Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier 2 Democratic-held districts

53 The vote shifts sharply against Republicans

54 Vote moves in both Tier 1 and Tier 2 districts Now let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican Republican Tier 1 Republican Tier Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Initial vote Re-vote after hearing balanced debate Initial vote Re-vote after hearing balanced debate 54

55 55 Biggest shifters: independents, white seniors, unmarried women Now let me ask you again, I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Republican seats Shift toward Democrats

56 The Democratic Battleground

57 57 Democrats have big lead in suburban seats that form half of the Democratic battleground I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for Democrat (HOUSE INCUMBENT) or the Republican candidate? Democratic seats Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Total Suburban Rural Metro Democratic battleground 49% of Democratic battleground 23% of Democratic battleground 21% of Democratic battleground

58 58 And ahead in districts that went for Obama over 70% of the battleground I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for Democrat (HOUSE INCUMBENT) or the Republican candidate? Democrat Republican Democratic seats Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Districts Obama won Districts Romney won 71% of Democratic battleground 29% of Democratic battleground

59 59 Democrats strong among older voters in their seats I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress in 2014, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for Democrat (HOUSE INCUMBENT) or the Republican candidate? Democratic seats Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Democrat Republican Seniors White seniors 50 and over White 50 and over

60 60 Democratic incumbents popular in suburban, rural districts Do you approve or disapprove of the way (HOUSE INCUMBENT) is handling his/her job as a member of the U.S. Congress? Strongly approve Strongly disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove DK Approve Disapprove DK Approve Disapprove DK Suburban Rural Metro

61 61 Massive party advantage in Democratic battleground Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 49.1 Net: Mean: 37.9 Mean: 45.7 Mean: 39.5 Mean: 44.8 Net: -25 Net: -8 Net: -22 Net: Mean: 39.0 Net: Barack Obama John Boehner Democratic Party Republican Party Democrats in Congress Republican Congress

62 62 Tea Party is wildly unpopular Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 37.4 Net: The Tea Party

63 Health care reform in Democratic districts

64 Base of support higher in suburban and Obama districts Now I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with this issue. Health care reform Dems much better Reps much better Dems Reps Dems Reps Dems Reps Total Democratic districts Suburban Districts Democratic districts won by Obama 64

65 65 Voters in these districts support implementing and improving/fixing the health care reform by sizeable margin Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should implement and improve the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. We should implement and fix the health care reform law. We should repeal the health care reform law. Democratic Districts Implement/ Improve Repeal Implement/ Fix Repeal

66 66 The positive case for health care reform: women, improving the law, and bringing down costs for middle class families Now I am going to read you some things Democrats who support the health care reform law say about how the law will help the country. After I read each one, please tell me if it makes you feel much more favorable toward the health care reform law, so mewhat more favorable toward the health care reform law, neither favorable nor unfavorable, or less favorable toward the health care reform law. Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable (WOMEN) We can't go back to insurance companies calling the shots on women's health. The health care reform law makes sure insurance companies can't charge women higher premiums solely based on gender, and covers important preventive health care, such as mammograms, screenings for cervical cancer and other services (IMPROVE LAW) The Affordable Care Act makes good changes that we should keep. It cut what seniors spend on drugs, barred insurance companies from using pre-existing conditions, and helps young people stay on insurance. But there is a lot we need to fix. We need to make sure it is not a burden on small businesses, does not give insurance companies an excuse to raise rates, and we need to take even more steps to cut health care costs. (AFFORDABLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS) Health care costs are an enormous burden on the middle class. The health care law eliminates lifetime limits on your care and premiums are already going down in some states, while patients are able to keep their current plans and doctors. We need to continue to work to lower costs, lower health care debt, and make sure coverage is affordable for middle class families

67 And reduced costs and moral arguments for the law strong drivers in regressions Now I am going to read you some things Democrats who support the health care reform law say about how the law will help the country. After I read each one, please tell me if it makes you feel much more favorable toward the health care reform law, so mewhat more favorable toward the health care reform law, neither favorable nor unfavorable, or less favorable toward the health care reform law. (REDUCED COSTS) The health care reform law expands access to affordable health care to millions, lowering costs for everyone because there will be fewer uninsured who end up costing the most. And by focusing more on preventive care, we will decrease our health care costs and our deficits in the long-term, strengthening our health care system and economy. Much more favorable 33 Somewhat more favorable 54 (MEDICAID EXPANSION) Governors from both parties are getting behind the health care reform law because it expands access to affordable health coverage to millions of uninsured children, people with disabilities and the working poor earning less than 16,000 dollars per year, and it will pump millions of federal dollars into their state, spurring economic growth by providing money to hospitals, and lowering costs in the long run. (MORAL) Passing health care reform was the right thing to do because it will provide affordable coverage for millions who didn't have it before. This law makes sure children, people with disabilities and the working poor can receive quality health care at an affordable price, while ensuring those who have insurance can keep their current plans and doctors. (SMALL BUSINESS) The health care law helps small businesses provide affordable health insurance to their employees by allowing them to shop in their own health insurance marketplace to compare plans. Many small businesses are eligible for tax credits to help cover the cost of providing coverage, so they can offer insurance that is affordable both for them and their employees

68 Among women, focusing on benefits and services intensely strong 68 Now I am going to read you some things Democrats who support the health care reform law say about how the law will help the country. After I read each one, please tell me if it makes you feel much more favorable toward the health care reform law, so mewhat more favorable toward the health care reform law, neither favorable nor unfavorable, or less favorable toward the health care reform law. Among women (WOMEN) We can't go back to insurance companies calling the shots on women's health. The health care reform law makes sure insurance companies can't charge women higher premiums solely based on gender, and covers important preventive health care, such as mammograms, screenings for cervical cancer and other services. Much more favorable 51 Somewhat more favorable 71 (IMPROVE LAW) The Affordable Care Act makes good changes that we should keep. It cut what seniors spend on drugs, barred insurance companies from using pre-existing conditions, and helps young people stay on insurance. But there is a lot we need to fix. We need to make sure it is not a burden on small businesses, does not give insurance companies an excuse to raise rates, and we need to take even more steps to cut health care costs. (AFFORDABLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS) Health care costs are an enormous burden on the middle class. The health care law eliminates lifetime limits on your care and premiums are already going down in some states, while patients are able to keep their current plans and doctors. We need to continue to work to lower costs, lower health care debt, and make sure coverage is affordable for middle class families

69 Same among unmarried women 69 Now I am going to read you some things Democrats who support the health care reform law say about how the law will help the country. After I read each one, please tell me if it makes you feel much more favorable toward the health care reform law, so mewhat more favorable toward the health care reform law, neither favorable nor unfavorable, or less favorable toward the health care reform law. Among unmarried women (WOMEN) We can't go back to insurance companies calling the shots on women's health. The health care reform law makes sure insurance companies can't charge women higher premiums solely based on gender, and covers important preventive health care, such as mammograms, screenings for cervical cancer and other services. Much more favorable 54 Somewhat more favorable 78 (IMPROVE LAW) The Affordable Care Act makes good changes that we should keep. It cut what seniors spend on drugs, barred insurance companies from using pre-existing conditions, and helps young people stay on insurance. But there is a lot we need to fix. We need to make sure it is not a burden on small businesses, does not give insurance companies an excuse to raise rates, and we need to take even more steps to cut health care costs. (AFFORDABLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS) Health care costs are an enormous burden on the middle class. The health care law eliminates lifetime limits on your care and premiums are already going down in some states, while patients are able to keep their current plans and doctors. We need to continue to work to lower costs, lower health care debt, and make sure coverage is affordable for middle class families

70 70 In Democratic seats, seniors are really paying attention How closely have you been following news about politics and Congress -- very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? Very closely Total Seniors Independents White noncollege Rising American Electorate Unmarried women

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