A History of Presidential Elections

Transcription

1 A History of Presidential Elections

2 A Rough Course Schedule! Lecture 1: ! Lecture 2: ! Lecture 3: ! Lecture 4: ! Lecture 5: ! Lecture 6: ! Lecture 7: ! Lecture 8: 1968-today

3 Harry S Truman! Senator from Pendergast! The preferred candidate of the Big City machines and bosses such as Hannegan, Ed Flynn of the Bronx, Ed Kelly of Chicago! Truman s career was a product of the boss system! He was nominated in 1944 by that system

4 Vice-Presidential Balloting 1944 Democratic National Convention: The So-Called Second Missouri Compromise 1 st Ballot 2 nd Ballot 2 nd (after shifts)! Truman: ,031! Wallace:

5 FDR Out of the Loop on Veep

6 Sole Conversation

7 FDR, Truman, Wallace (Note the Expressions on their Faces)

8 1944: Fourth Term Electoral College: FDR: 26 million (53%); Dewey: 22 million (46%) Senate: (D57-R38); House: (D242-R191)

9 Warm Springs, April 1945

10 Lucy Mercer Rutherfurd

11 April 12, 1945

12 1948 GOP Primaries! Earl Warren: 771,000 (27%)! Harold Stassen: 627,000 (22%)! Robert A. Taft: 464,000 (16%)! Thomas Dewey: 330,000 (12%)! Riley Bender: 324,000 (11%)! Doug MacArthur: 87,000 (3%)

13 1948 GOP Primaries

14 1948 GOP Convention! Thomas E. Dewey ! Robert A. Taft ! Harold Stassen ! Arthur Vandenberg 62 62! Earl Warren 59 57! Joe Martin 18 10! Douglas MacArthur 11 7

15 Humphrey s 1948 Speech

16 Truman, Philadelphia, 1948

17 By 1948, the New Deal coalition that had carried FDR to four straight presidential elections began to fracture. On Truman s left, former vicepresident Wallace ran as the candidate of the Progressive Party. On the right, Strom Thurmond ran as a States Rights candidate against Truman s support for civil rights. Wallace and Thurmond combined to win 5 percent of the national vote, siphoning of the left and right wings of FDR s coalition

18 Public opinion surveys, which were still in their infancy, had Truman down consistently in a four-way field! Immediately after Labor Day, the Elmo Roper poll showed that 44.3 percent of respondents favored Republican nominee Thomas Dewey to 31.4 percent for the president! On the eve of the election, Newsweek surveyed 50 top political journalists, every single respondent predicted a Dewey victory

19 Truman enjoyed advantages not perceptible to most observers. A journalist quipped that Dewey s speeches could be boiled down to these four historic sentences: Agriculture is important. Our rivers are full of fish. You cannot have freedom without liberty. The future lies ahead.

20 Consequences of 1948! The Wallace and Thurmond defections shaped the course of the Democrats! Driving Wallace into opposition kept the left within the Democratic coalition! Thurmond s departure had more profound, long-lasting consequences, playing out over decades! Ultimately, Truman s pro-civil-rights agenda drove away the white South while allowing Dems to pick up the GOP s northern liberals and moderates! The Democratic Party would reject southern white apartheid

21 1944 compared to 1948: FDR stronger in Northeast, winning NY, PA, CT, NJ; Truman ran better in Farm Belt, taking IA and WI

22 1944 Compared to

23 1948: 266 to Win; Truman Won 303, Despite Thurman Taking 39

24 1948: 266 to Win; Truman Won with 303; Truman Won 8 States (110 Electoral Votes) By Narrow Margins Italics Denote Strong Down-ticket Candidates! Ohio, 0.24% (25) (Governor)! California, 0.44% (25)! Illinois, 0.84% (28) (G-Stevenson)! Iowa, 2.73% (10) (Senate)! Idaho, 2.73% (4) (Senate)! Nevada, 3.11% (3)! Wyoming, 4.35% (3) (Senate)! Wisconsin, 4.41% (12)

25 Truman s Congressional coattails, 1948! Of 32 Senate seats up, Dems won 23-9 and gained nine seats and new majority, 54-42! Lyndon Johnson, TX! Estes Kefauver, TN! Hubert Humphrey, MN! Paul Douglas, IL! Dems Gained 75 seats in House for a new majority

26 1952 Democratic Primaries Kefauver won 12 of 15 primaries, losing only three to favorite sons. He received 3.1 million votes, while the eventual nominee, Adlai Stevenson, got only 78,000

27 Balloting for 1952 Democratic Nomination! Ballot 1 st 1 st 2 nd 2 nd 3 rd 3 rd Unanimous! Kefauver: ! Stevenson: ! Russell: ! Harriman: ! Barkley:

28 I Like Ike

29 1952 GOP Primaries

30 1952 GOP Popular Vote in Primaries! Robert Taft: 2,794,736 (35.84%)! Dwight Eisenhower: 2,050,708 (26.30%)! Earl Warren: 1,349,036 (17.30%)! Harold Stassen: 881,702 (11.31%)! Thomas Werdel: 521,110 (6.68%)! George Mickelson: 63,879 (0.82%)! Douglas MacArthur: 44,209 (0.57%)

31 1952 GOP Convention Balloting! Ballot: 1st Before Shifts 1st After Shifts! Dwight Eisenhower ! Robert A. Taft ! Earl Warren 81 77! Harold Stassen 20 0! Douglas MacArthur 10 4

32 The Rise of Nixon

33 1952: First Democratic defeat in a quarter century brings Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower to the White House and elevates Richard Nixon to national prominence.

34 1952 Coattails? Republicans gained 2 seats in Senate for a majority; GOP gained 22 seats in House for a majority (despite Dems winning 28.6 million to GOP s 28.4 million votes). Dems won back majorities in both houses in 1954

35 Perceptions of Ike

36 Election of 1956

37 1956: No coattails: Ike 36 million to Stevenson 28 million Senate: Democrats gains 2 seats (D49-R47) Senate: Dems win popular vote: 22 million to 21 mil (D51-R49%) House: Democrats gain 2 seats (D234-R201) House: Dems win popular vote 30 million to 28.7 (D51-R49%)

38 1958 Midterms: Republican Catastrophe Dems gain 13 seats in Senate, 48 in House! Senate losses huge, perhaps due to the Recession of 1958! Democrats took 13 GOP Senate seats (10 by defeating incumbents), won both Senate seats in the new state of Alaska, one in HI! Aggregate gain of 16 seats for the Democrats for a party balance of 65-35! Second-largest swing in the history of Senate, only behind the Republican gains of 18 seats in 1866, and is only the third time in U.S. history that 10 or more Senate seats changed hands in midterms (1866, 1946)! GOP lost 48 seats in House

39 1960

40 See Joe, Sr. Behind JFK

41 Kennedy on the Stump 1960 Democratic Primaries! John F. Kennedy - 1,847,259 (31.43%)! Hubert Humphrey - 590,410 (10.05%)! Unpledged delegates - 241,958 (4.12%)! Wayne Morse - 147,262 (2.51%)! Adlai Stevenson - 51,833 (0.88%)! Favorite Sons:! Pat Brown - 1,354,031 (23.04%)! George H. McLain - 646,387 (11.00%)! George Smathers- 322,235 (5.48%)! Michael DiSalle - 315,312 (5.37%)

42 1960 Democratic Primaries

43 Eleanor on JFK

44 1960 Debates

45 1960: 269 needed to win: JFK 303, Nixon 219 JFK won 13 states, totaling 178 Electoral Votes, by less than 5% HI.06%(3); IL.2%(27); MO.5%(13); NM.7%(4); NJ.8%(16); MN 1.4%(11); DE 1.6%(3); TX 2%(24); MI 2%(20); NV, 2.3%(3); PA, 2.3%(32); SC 2.5%(8); NC 4.2%(14)

46 1960: No coattails: JFK 34.2 million, Nixon 34.1 million Congressional Dems ran well ahead of JFK Senate: Democrats lose 1 seat (D64-R36) Sen: Dems win popular vote: 19 million to 15 mil (D55%-R44%) House: Democrats lose 21 seats (D283-R153) House: Dems win popular vote 35 million to 29 (D55-R45%)

47 1960: JFK and LBJ s Presidencies Might Have Worked as One. JFK Clearly Understood the Wholesale Aspects of the Public Presidency; LBJ the Gritty Retail Aspects of Legislation! Kennedy was elected President, but he only just squeaked in! Democrats actually lost nearly two dozen members of the House, many of them liberals! Kennedy s métier was not legislation but soaring rhetoric.! The visionary flights of the New Frontier excited intellectuals and the young, but in Congress Kennedy s proposals a tax cut, a major education bill, civil-rights legislation fizzled

48 JFK Struggled to Pass a Legislative Program; LBJ Might Have Helped

49 JFK and a Young Admirer

50 JFK with Jim Wright, John Connally, and LBJ November 22, 1963

51 President Johnson! Johnson in a better position than his predecessor to push civil rights legislation through Congress! Former Senate majority leader! Had worked with colleagues of both parties and different outlooks! Mastered the art of compromise! He also developed close relationships with senators and representatives of both parties! He regularly used that personal knowledge, combined with charm, flattery, and threats, to achieve his legislative goals! This skill proved especially useful in getting Congress to pass a major civil rights bill

52 LBJ and MLK

53 1964 GOP Primaries: Gold won by Goldwater; blue Rockefeller; brown John Byrnes; green James A. Rhodes; purple Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr.; orange William Scranton; grey states did not hold a primary

54 1964: The Strange Death of Liberal Republicanism Jacob Javits, Rockefeller, Jackie Robinson! During the California primary, Rockefeller s campaign manager Stu Spencer turned to the candidate and said, Governor, I think it s time to call in the Eastern Establishment.! Rockefeller responded, You re looking at it, buddy. I m all that s left.

55 LBJ and the Paradox of Civil Rights! President Johnson used another key strategy to pass the civil rights bill.! He took advantage of the national sympathy and mourning surrounding Kennedy s tragic death.! In public speeches and private talks, he urged passage of the civil rights act as a lasting legacy to the martyred president.! Building widespread public support, he urged religious leaders throughout the nation (especially in the South) to use their influence on behalf of the civil rights act.

56 Goldwater was running against Ike as much as against LBJ and the Democrats Goldwater called the Eisenhower administration a dimestore New Deal.

57 Cow Palace, 1964

58 Why Republicans Should Avoid San Francisco: Part Three Cow Palace, San Francisco, July The term Presidential wasn t in vogue, but Party leaders hoped that this champion of the Republican right would evolve into a mainstream candidate in time for the general election. Goldwater, though, had his own ideas, and in his acceptance speech uttered two sentences that, even fifty-some years later, are lovingly remembered by students of American politics: I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice! And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue! But, despite the delivery, the effect of Goldwater s speech wasn t lost on anyone. The Party s 1960 nominee, Richard Nixon, who was there, later wrote in his memoir RN that he felt almost physically sick and was sure that Goldwater had just lost the election.

59 LBJ Thought this is What the Future Looked Like

60 GOP Sought to Nationalize their Southern Success

61

62 1964 Coattails Senate: Dems gained 2 seats (D68-R32) House: Dems gained 37 seats (D295-R140) Popular vote D: 38 million; R: 28 million (57-42)

63 Flip of Southern white voters to the G.O.P. The clearest indicator of the importance of this election, was that Deep Southern states voted Republican in In contrast, much of the traditional Republican strongholds of the Northeast and Upper Midwest voted Democratic. Vermont and Maine, which stood alone voting against FDR in 1936, voted for LBJ in 1964.

64 1964 By Counties There s a reason whites in the Deep South vote 90% Republican (it s not a philosophical attachment to libertarian principles).

65 Republican Share of Vote by Counties, 1960 and

66 Democrats controlled 68 seats in the Senate and 295 (of 435) in the House. The 89th Congress turned out a steady flow of Great Society legislation, including the Voting Rights Act, Elementary and Secondary Education Act, the Social Security Act of 1965 (which created Medicare and Medicaid), the Higher Education Act

67 The Election of 1968! 1968: Race and Vietnam fracture New Deal coalition in dramatic year (assassinations, Chicago convention, etc.);! Nixon elected after close popular vote (less than one percent) with only 43 percent in three-way contest;! Quasi-realignment! Birth of Southern Strategy.

68 Goldwater Girl gets Clean with Gene

69 Johnson Drops Out

70 1968: Twilight of the Nominating Conventions Gold Johnson, purple Robert Kennedy, green Gene McCarthy, blue George Smathers, orange Stephen Young, grey states did not hold primary! Gene McCarthy: 2,914,933 (38.73%)! Bobby Kennedy: 2,305,148 (30.63%)! Stephen M. Young: 549,140 (7.30%)! Lyndon B. Johnson: 383,590 (5.10%)! Thomas C. Lynch: 380,286 (5.05%)! Roger D. Branigin: 238,700 (3.17%)! George Smathers: 236,242 (3.14%)! Hubert Humphrey: 166,463 (2.21%)

71

72 Democrats 1968! Humphrey, the then-vice-president won the 1968 presidential nomination without winning a single primary (he delayed his formal announcement of candidacy until most of the filing deadlines were safely out of the way), having inherited a huge party-establishment following from LBJ! Kennedy s assassination largely removed any doubt about Humphrey's ultimate victory, but antiwar delegates staged a platform fight at the Chicago convention amid violence outside, and even within, the hall, hoping either to upset Humphrey's nomination or force an uncongenial platform on him

73 Republicans 1968! Nixon was just short of a delegate majority heading into the convention! Rockefeller and Reagan (who announced on convention eve) tried to block his nomination! Nixon thwarted Rockefeller s electability argument with poll data! He thwarted Reagan by making fateful promises to White Southern conservatives

74 1968: Twilight of the Nominating Conventions Gold states won by Nixon; blue state won by Rockefeller; green state won by James A. Rhodes; purple state won by Reagan; grey states did not hold a primary

75 Nixon s Back!

76 In the wake of a disastrous showing at their national convention in Chicago, Democrats especially Vice President Hubert Humphrey, the party s standard bearer looked doomed.! They were deeply divided over the Vietnam War, civil rights and campus unrest.! The South, which had been solidly in the Democratic column for 100 years, was in revolt over integration.! What had been an even race for several months now turned into a consistent 15-point lead for Republican nominee Richard Nixon; Humphrey struggled throughout September and August even to crack 30 percent.! On his right flank, he was bleeding votes to former Alabama Governor George Wallace, who ran as a thirdparty candidate, with a strong appeal to white backlash voters; on his left, he struggled to energize anti-war Democrats who associated him with the administration s hawkish prosecution of the Vietnam War and seemed inclined to sit on their hands that fall.

77 Nixon Won with 301 Electoral Votes; He Needed 270 to win; Wallace May Have Been a Factor in 9 States (totaling 150 Electoral Votes) that Nixon Carried Narrowly! Missouri, 1.13% (12)! New Jersey, 2.13% (17)! Ohio, 2.28% (26)! Alaska, 2.64% (3)! Illinois, 2.92% (26)! California, 3.08% (40)! Delaware, 3.51% (3)! Wisconsin, 3.62% (12)! Tennessee, 3.83% (11)

78 The New Deal Coalition at the Presidential Level Fractures Over Race Vietnam split the Democratic Party; the backlash against Civil Rights gave the GOP an Opening

79 Most analysts do not consider 1968 a realigning election because control of Congress did not change; Of Nixon-Ford s four congresses, Democrats controlled House ; ; ; The Democrats would control the House until 1994.

80 Nixon did not win a decisive mandate. Democrats retained clear control of both houses of Congress, making Nixon the first new president since Zach Taylor in 1848 to be elected without a majority for his party in either the House or the Senate. The Senate: Of Nixon-Ford s four congresses, Democrats held the Senate 57-43; 54-44; 56-42; Democrats held the Senate from , and again from 1986 to 1994

81 No marked change in the partisan orientation of the electorate. These two elections are consistent with the theory in that the old New Deal issues were replaced by Civil Rights issues as the major factor explaining why citizens identified with each party. Other scholars contend that this is the beginning of a thirty-year dealignment, in divided government ruled.

82 Era of Divided Government ! 48 years between 1968 and 2016! 36 years of divided government! Only 12 years of intermittent one-party rule:! (Carter)! (Clinton)! (Bush II)! (Obama)

83 The Collapse of the Democratic Party, 1968 Largest Swings Swings Against Parties! Republicans, 1912: 29%! Democrats: 1968: -21%! Republicans, 1932: -18% Swings Against Incumbents! Taft, 1912: -29%! Hoover, 1932: -18%! G.H.W. Bush, 1992: -16%! Federalists: 1816: -18%! Republicans, 1992: -16%! Democrats, 1920: -15%! Republicans, 1976: -13%