2018 House Overview: Majority Closer Than It Appears House Ratings. InsideElections.com. February 27, 2017 Volume 1, No. 4

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1 This issue brought to you by 2018 House Overview: Majority Closer Than It Appears By Nathan L. Gonzales February 27, 2017 Volume 1, No House Ratings Toss-Up (2R, 3D) AZ 1 (O Halleran, D) NJ 5 (Gottheimer, D) MN 2 (Lewis, R) TX 23 (Hurd, R) NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D) Tilt Democratic (2D) Tilt Republican (3R) FL 7 (Murphy, D) CA 49 (Issa, R) NV 3 (Rosen, D) FL 26 (Curbelo, R) NY 19 (Faso, R) Lean Democratic (4D) Lean Republican (11R) FL 13 (Crist, D) CA 10 (Denham, R) MN 1 (Walz, DFL) CA 25 (Knight, R) MN 7 (Peterson, DFL) CA 39 (Royce, R) MN 8 (Nolan, DFL) CO 6 (Coffman, R) GA 6 (VACANT, Price, R) IA 1 (Blum,R) NE 2 (Bacon, R) NY 22 (Tenney, R) PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R) PA 16 (Smucker, R) VA 10 (Comstock, R) Likely Democratic (6D) Likely Republican (12R) CA 7 (Bera, D) AZ 2 (McSally, R) CA 24 (Carbajal, D) CA 21 (Valadao, R) IL 10 (Schneider, D) CA 48 (Rohrabacher, R) IA 2 (Loebsack, D) IA 3 (Young, R) PA 17 (Cartwright, (D) KS 3 (Yoder, R) WI 3 (Kind, D) ME 2 (Poliquin, R) MN 3 (Paulsen, R) GOP DEM NJ 7 (Lance, R) 115th Congress NY 24 (Katko, R) Currently Safe PA 6 (Costello, R) Competitive PA 7 (Meehan, R) Needed for majority 218 TX 7 (Culberson, R) After a couple of cycles of being ignored, the fight for the House might finally get its time to shine. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the Senate, but the slate of states up for re-election next year makes it difficult for Democrats to gain control. In the House, Republicans have a significant majority and favorable maps in key states, but history and an unpopular president are working against them. Democrats need to gain 24 seats in 2018 to regain the House majority. The president s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, including an average loss of 33 House seats in those 18 cycles. There are 23 Republicans representing districts Hillary Clinton carried over Donald Trump, which are among the 59 initial targets released by the DCCC. In comparison, 12 Democrats represent Trump districts. But it s not clear whether the 2016 presidential results represent a trend or an aberration in key districts. And it will probably take the 2018 results to answer that question. For now, Democrats are trying to convert the wave of anti-trump enthusiasm represented by the post-inaugural women s march and subsequent town hall meetings into quality recruits in as many congressional districts as possible. Formal filing deadlines won t start until late this year, but Democrats might want to get as many commitments as possible before the June special election in Georgia s 6th District, when Democrats could lose in a seat Trump carried by just a single point, and some of the initial enthusiasm gets dampened. While Democrats are encouraged by the town hall activism and Republicans are generally dismissive, neither party has empirical evidence demonstrating whether the public outrage is from Democratic voters or disaffected Republicans and new voters. The latter could change the electoral equation, and improve Democratic prospects, next year. The current playing field (28 Republican seats and 15 Democratic seats) is probably too small for Democrats to win the majority, but Republicans shouldn t get too comfortable. In January 2009, we listed 33 competitive seats (23 held by Democrats and 10 held by Republicans). The playing field then ballooned to 107 competitive seats (including 98 Democratic seats and just 9 Republican seats) before Election Day after the cycle spiraled out of control against President Barack Obama and his party. For now, Democrats are in for a district-by-district slog against a slate of tough GOP incumbents, even if many of them represent Clinton districts. But a combination of Democratic enthusiasm and Republican apathy could create a midterm wave against GOP candidates.

2 House Overview: Alabama - California Alabama. 2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%.) 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent. Roby vocalized her disappointment with Trump after the Access Hollywood Tape released during the last campaign. Democrats need Roby to lose in next year s primary or benefit from another third-party candidate since the 2016 Democratic nominee couldn t reach 41 percent. Arizona. 1st District (Tom O Halleran, D, elected with 51%). Trump 48%. NRCC Target. O Halleran was elected to Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick s seat against a flawed candidate. If Republicans can secure a credible challenger who isn t broke after a late primary, this will be a top takeover opportunity for the GOP. O Halleran, a former GOP state legislator, will have a congressional voting record to defend and must keep up enthusiasm among voters on the reservations. Toss-up. 2nd District (Martha McSally, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 49.6%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman has proven to be one of the GOP s toughest incumbents, but Democrats can t give up on a district Clinton carried in the presidential race. Democrats need some Republicans who are disappointed with the lack of action on the Hill to stay home and hope Trump and Congressional Republicans energize Hispanic voters. It s also cheap to advertise in this Tucson-based district. Likely R. 9th District (Kyrsten Sinema, D, re-elected with 61%). Clinton 55%. NRCC Target. Republicans aren t going to defeat the congresswoman, but the Tempe/suburban Phoenix seat could be competitive when she decides to run statewide. So far, that doesn t appear to be this cycle. Solid D. Arkansas. 2nd District. (French Hill, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 52%. DCCC Target. Democrats hope the lack of a presidential race allows them localize against the congressman and buck the trend of the district. It starts as a long shot. California. 7th District (Ami Bera, D, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. The congressman is always a target and has close races, but consistently wins. Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones has some baggage, but GOP strategists believe he can make up for his 8-point loss from 2016, when he was weighed down by a blowout presidential race and a U.S. Senate race with two Democrats at the top of the ballot. Likely D. 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected with 52%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. Democrats closed the gap to about 3 points last cycle, but haven t been able to get over the top. They ll probably look for a challenger besides Michael Eggman, who has lost the last two races. Denham is a tough incumbent, but the Central Valley district might be shifting away from him. Lean R. 21st District (David Valadao, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 55%. DCCC Target. The presidential performance keeps attracting Democrats to this southern Central Valley district, but Valadao just demolishes anyone in his path. Democrats need to find a candidate who can fight on local issues, including water, and drive a wedge between Hispanic voters and the congressman. Likely R. 24th District (Salud Carbajal, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 57%. NRCC Target. Former Democratic Rep. Lois Capps survived a couple of close calls in midterm elections, so this could be a test for Carbajal, who just won her open seat in Santa Barbara. Republican Justin Fareed, who lost last year by 6 points, may run again. But he could have to contend with the traditional midterm dynamic that cuts against the president s party. Likely D. 25th District (Steve Knight, R, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 50%. DCCC Target. Democrats had high hopes for Bryan Caforio against the congressman in this Simi Valley district, but Knight prevailed by 6 points. The district is covered by the expensive Los Angeles media market, so it can take time for messages to seep into voters minds, and multigenerational Hispanic voters aren t as friendly to Democratic candidates. Caforio ran a good campaign and could run again, but other Democrats seem likely to look as well. Lean R. 32nd District (Grace Napolitano, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 67%. The 80-year-old congresswoman and her husband have facebook.com/insideelections Nathan L. Gonzales Editor & Publisher Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president. It does not endorse candidates. Stuart Rothenberg Senior Editor Will Taylor Production Artist Annual subscription (24 issues/year): Individual - $249 + sales tax Silver License - $2,500 (tax included) Gold License - $5,000 (tax included) 77 K Street NE 7th Floor Washington, DC Copyright 2017, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 February 27, 2017 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

3 House Overview: Colorado - Florida health issues, leading to retirement speculation. One of her former staff members, former Monrovia mayor Mary Ann Lutz, would run in an open seat, which is heavily Democratic. Solid D. 34th District (VACANT, D). Clinton 84% Special Election. Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra resigned his seat after being confirmed as California s attorney general. State Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez is the frontrunner, but former Los Angeles City Council aide Jimmy Gomez Sarah Hernandez and others are running as well. The downtown Los Angeles district is heavily Democratic. Solid D. 36th District (Raul Ruiz, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%. NRCC target. Republicans are hoping this turns into an open seat, but until it does, the congressman should be fine. Ruiz is a tireless campaigner representing a Palm Springs district that Clinton won and Obama won twice. Solid D. 39th District (Ed Royce, R, re-elected with 57.2%). Clinton 52%. DCCC Target. The congressman won re-election easily last year, but the demographics of the district (which includes northern Orange County and parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties) are shifting away from the GOP. Democrats need a quality candidate. Lean R. 45th District (Mimi Walters, R, re-elected with 59%). Clinton 49.8%. DCCC Target. Clinton was the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Orange County since 1936, and Democrats are excited about their prospects down the ballot. Walters, who represents central Orange County, will be difficult to unseat considering there is a little evidence voters connect her with Trump. But similar to other Republicans, incumbents will have a record of supporting the President that Democrats will highlight in television ads. 48th District (Dana Rohrabacher, R, re-elected with 58%). Clinton 48%. DCCC Target. The congressman has been a retirement possibility for a few cycles now, but not a Democratic target until Clinton carried his coastal Orange County seat last year. The congressman made news when someone floated his name to be Trump s secretary of state, for being too sympathetic toward Russia, and when two people were injured at his district offices during a protest. There appears to be a lot happening here, but not a lot of evidence that it s within Democratic reach yet. Likely R. 49th District (Darrell Issa, R, re-elected with 50%). Clinton 51%. DCCC Target. The congressman defeated Democrat Doug Applegate in a late-breaking race in southern Orange County. Democrats used a combination of old opposition research and Clinton support to nearly topple the wealthiest Member of Congress. Applegate is running again, giving Republicans two years to focus on him and drive up his negatives. But his performance will inspire other Democrats to take a look. Tilts R. 52nd District (Scott Peters, D, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 58%. NRCC Target. Republicans are always enticed by this seat, but Peters is a tough incumbent. Unlike most of his Democratic colleagues, the congressman often enjoys support from the Chamber of Commerce. Republican Denise Gitsham, who lost last year by 13 points, is interested in running again. Solid D. Colorado. 3rd District (Scott Tipton, R, re-elected with 55%).Trump 52%. DCCC Target. Democratic strategists believe this race can move back onto the competitive map if the GOP base splinters. It s possible but currently a long shot. 5th District (Doug Lamborn, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump 57%. According to a GOP source, someone is making calls putting together a team for state Sen. Owen Hill to challenge the congressman in the GOP primary next year. Hill told Inside Elections that he is focused on his current legislative work, but didn t give a Sherman-esque denial. Lamborn was nearly toppled at the GOP convention last year by a political neophyte. The Colorado Springs-based seat won t go Democratic, but Lamborn could be vulnerable in a primary. 6th District (Mike Coffman, R, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 50%. DCCC Target. There are few certainties in life, but death, taxes, and Democrats challenging Coffman are three of them. The congressman defeated another top-tier Democratic recruit last year (this time by 8 points). But Clinton carried the Aurora-based seat and Democrats will look for another candidate. In spite of his previous strength, Coffman would likely be vulnerable in an anti-republican wave. Lean R. 7th District (Ed Perlmutter, D, re-elected with 55%). Clinton 51%. NRCC Target. What was once one of the country s most competitive districts has shifted toward Democrats. But Clinton narrowly crossed 50 percent, and there is a real possibility that Perlmutter leaves the seat open to run for governor. Solid D, but the rating could change with an open seat. Connecticut. 2nd District (Joe Courtney, D, re-elected with 63%). Clinton 49%. NRCC Target. Trump held Clinton below 50 percent, but that s still a long way from winning the eastern Connecticut district. The open seat race could be interesting if Courtney runs for governor, but that hasn t happened yet. Solid D. 5th District (Elizabeth Esty, D, re-elected with 58%). Clinton 49.9%. NRCC Target. Clinton also failed to top 50 percent in this western Connecticut seat, but this type of district shouldn t be in play for Republicans in a midterm election with a GOP president. Solid D. Florida. 7th District (Stephanie Murphy, D, elected 52%). Clinton 51%. NRCC Target. The congresswoman defeated GOP Rep. John Mica, who failed to adapt to modern campaigning. Republicans will make a strong effort into winning the seat back with a stronger candidate. Mica outlasted some potential successors, but state Rep. Bob Cortes, state Sen. David Simmons and others are considering runs. Tilts D. 13th District (Charlie Crist, D, elected 52%). Clinton 49.6%. NRCC Target. Crist defeated GOP Rep. David Jolly (who was ostracized from the national party) in underwhelming fashion in a redrawn district that included all of Crist s home territory. Republicans have an opportunity February 27,

4 House Overview: Georgia - Iowa to take the seat back, but Jolly s indecision on a rematch puts a freeze on other potential candidates. Despite his trashed reputation in Washington, Jolly has a following in the district. But his anti-trump rhetoric could be problematic in a potential primary. Lean D. 18th District (Brian Mast, R, elected 54%). Trump 53%. DCCC Target. Mast won a competitive GOP primary and won the general election against wealthy Democrat Randy Perkins to take over Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy s seat. Mast, a veteran and double amputee, will not be easy to defeat in a district that Trump carried against Clinton. But Democrats aren t going to give the congressman a pass in his first reelection. 23rd District (Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D, re-elected 57%). Clinton 62%. Last year, the then-dnc chairwoman found herself in a tougher-than-expected primary against Tim Canova, who tried to capitalize on Bernie Sanders popularity. Wasserman Schultz won percent, but Canova looks poised to run again. No risk of a GOP takeover though. Solid. D. 25th District (Mario Diaz-Balart, R, re-elected 62%). Trump 49.6%. DCCC Target. The Diaz-Balart name is popular in south Florida, but Democrats can t afford to rule out districts where Trump fell below 50 percent. They re casting the net wide for a credible challenger. 26th District (Carlos Curbelo, R, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 57%. DCCC Target. Curbelo was a top target last cycle and won with some room to spare. But Democrats largely blamed their nominee, former Rep. Joe Garcia, who had plenty of baggage. The congressman will be tough to beat, but a challenger with fewer issues could cause him problems, and Curbelo could struggle if Trump incites Hispanic voters against the GOP. Tilts R. 27th District (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R, re-elected with 55%). Clinton 59%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman represents one of the most Democratic districts held by a Republican. As long as she runs for reelection, it s a Democratic long-shot. But it s worth watching as the cycle progresses. Georgia. 6th District (VACANT, R). Trump 48.3%. DCCC Target Special Election. President Trump tapped GOP Rep. Tom Price to be his secretary of Health & Human Services. The congressman won re-election easily, but Trump defeated Clinton by just a point, sparking Democratic interest in the race. All candidates run together and the top two finishers move on to a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent, as expected. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel is one of the top GOP contenders, but isn t a shoo-in. As a frontrunner, she ll get attacked from all sides. Democrats have high hopes for former Hill aide Jon Ossoff, who is proving to be a great fundraiser and is popular among liberal activists. This is shaping up to be the first premier special election. It has a high cost for entry for the party committees and outside groups because of the expensive Atlanta media market. But thanks to the competitive presidential numbers, even if Trump s performance is a GOP aberration and their frontrunner is probably to the left of the district, Democrats can t disappoint the party base by walking away from the district. You can read the initial analysis of the race in the Dec. 20 issue and more in an upcoming issue. Lean R. Illinois. 6th District (Peter Roskam, R, re-elected with 59%). Clinton 50%. DCCC Target. This district hasn t received much attention since Roskam defeated DCCC darling Tammy Duckworth in 2006 and then Democrats redrew it to elect a Republican during the last round of redistricting. But Democrats believe demographics are pulling this back into play and Roskam will have to answer for a dozen years in Congress. We ll see what kind of challenger Democrats come up with. 10th District (Brad Schneider, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 62%. Schneider defeated GOP Rep. Bob Dold to take back the suburban Chicago seat the two men have traded since Dold overperformed Trump but not by enough to win re-election. Dold hasn t decided on a rematch, which would pit the two men against each other for the fifth consecutive election. Dold generally wins in midterm elections but President Trump in office likely makes it more difficult. Likely D. 13th District (Rodney Davis, R, re-elected with 60%). Trump 49.7%. DCCC Target. Democrats drew this district to elect a Democrat but Davis has foiled their plans. Downstate Illinois has been rough for Democrats, but they aren t giving the congressman a free pass after Trump s narrow victory in the district. State Rep. Carol Ammons appears to be interested, but having a legislator from Springfield may not be the best contrast. Democrats also need to do anything in their power to make sure David Gill, a former Democratic nominee, doesn t run again as a third-party candidate. 14th District (Randy Hultgren, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 49%. DCCC Target. Six years ago, Democrats drew this district to elect a Republican, but they believe it s trending their way. This district is a good test of whether Trump s troubles trickle down to other Republicans. Even in spite of his unpopularity, the GOP presidential nominee still carried the district. 17th District (Cheri Bustos, D, re-elected with 60%). Trump 47%. NRCC Target. Republicans were hoping the congresswoman followed through on the rumors and would run for governor next year. But Bustos announced her re-election plans last weekend. Trump carried the Quad-Cities district, but Republicans aren t likely to put up much of a fight here. Democrats, including Sen. Dick Durbin, have bigger plans for Bustos and won t let her stumble in a re-election bid. Solid D. Indiana. 6th District (Luke Messer, R, re-elected with 69%). Trump 68%. The congressman is likely to run for the Senate against Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly and leave behind a GOP-leaning open seat. There will likely be a crowd of GOP contenders. Iowa. 1st District (Rod Blum, R, re-elected with 54%). Trump 49%. DCCC Target. The congressman turned out to be more resilient than expected and the terrain in the Hawkeye State more friendly for Republicans, but Democrats aren t giving up. State Sen. Liz Mathis is unlikely to run, but others are mentioned including state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, Linn County Supervisor Brent Oleson, state Sen. Jeff Danielson, and former state Sen. Steve Sodders. Lean R. 4 February 27, 2017 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

5 House Overview: Kansas - Michigan 2nd District (Dave Loebsack, D, re-elected with 54%). Trump 49%. NRCC Target. Loebsack is the only Democrat left in the delegation and Republicans have their eye on the district after Trump s performance. State Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (son of Jeff, the state party chairman) is mentioned as a potential challenger. Likely D. 3rd District (David Young, R, re-elected with 53%). Trump 49%. DCCC Target. The congressman isn t flashy but he gets the job done. Despite being a Democratic target last cycle, he won re-election by 13 points and outperformed Trump. Michael Sherzan, who lost in the 2016 Democratic primary, could take another shot. Likely R. Kansas. 2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R). Trump 56%. DCCC Target. The congresswoman announced she is not seeking re-election next year, prompting a race for her open seat. A host of Republicans are mentioned as potential candidates (some of whom could choose to run for governor) including state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, former Trump campaign adviser/4 th District special election candidate Alan Cobb, and state Sens. Jake LaTurner and Dennis Pyle. Democrats aren t going to let the open seat opportunity fly by. Former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis (who lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to Sam Brownback, but won this district percent) could run and some Democrats believe he d be a strong contender. 3rd District (Kevin Yoder, R, re-elected with 51%). Clinton 47.2%. DCCC Target. Last cycle this seat was a prime example of new territory where Democrats were challenging because of Trump s problems in the suburbs. But the race became even more about unpopular GOP Gov. Brownback. Yoder prevailed against Jay Sidie, who said he was leaning toward running again. But other Democrats are looking as well and strategists hope Brownback will continue to be a problem, even though he is term-limited and won t be on the ballot. Likely R. 4th District (VACANT, R). Trump 60% Special Election. GOP Rep. Mike Pompeo was confirmed to be Trump s CIA Director, leaving an open Wichita-based seat. According to state law, the local parties selected nominees in lieu of primaries. Republicans chose state Treasurer Ron Estes over Cobb, a former Trump campaign adviser, and former Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Local Democrats selected civil rights attorney Jim Thompson over a candidate with a more moderate reputation. Estes is the prohibitive favorite on April 11. Kentucky. 6th District (Andy Barr, R, re-elected with 61%). Trump 55%. DCCC Target. Democrats are hoping a non-presidential year allows them to run a local race and follow the model of Democrats Steve Beshear and Jack Conway -- statewide candidates who did well in the Lexington-based district. But they were initially elected during different times with more split-ticket voting. Democrats need depressed Republicans to stay home and take out their anger on incumbents like Barr. It s still a long-shot scenario. Maine. 2nd District (Bruce Poliquin, R, re-elected with 55%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. Poliquin has proven to be a tough incumbent, but it was even more difficult for Democrats last cycle as it became clear that Trump was doing well in the more rural district of Maine. The congressman can t take his race for granted but starts with an advantage. Democrats are likely to look for a candidate who was born in Maine, unlike their nominee from the last two cycles. Likely R. Maryland. 1st District (Andy Harris, R, re-elected with 67%). Trump 62%. The lone Republican in the delegation may end up with a job in the Trump administration. If Harris leaves, the open seat is likely to stay in GOP hands. Former top aide Kathy Szeliga, who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2016, would likely run. 6th District (John Delaney, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 56%. NRCC Target. The congressman had a close call in 2014, but won by a wider margin last cycle. Republicans are hoping he runs for governor. But even an open seat with a Republican in the White House would likely be a challenge. Republicans 2016 nominee would likely run again. Solid D. Massachusetts. 9th District (Bill Keating, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 53%. NRCC Target. Republicans are searching for takeover opportunities and some strategists believe Clinton s performance, the opposition research book against the congressman, and slow-moving demographics are working in their direction. Be skeptical for now. Solid D. Michigan. 5th District (Dan Kildee, D, re-elected with 61%). Clinton 49.7%. NRCC Target. GOP strategists believe this district is slowly moving in their direction and hope Kildee accelerates their takeover chances by running for governor. It would take a special GOP candidate to capture anger over the Flint water crisis, but it s worth keeping an eye on. Solid D. 7th District (Tim Walberg, R, re-elected with 55%). Trump 56%. DCCC Target. The congressman is a perennial Democratic target but consistently wins. Democrats are hoping the GOP majorities in Congress overreach on their agenda and cause a backlash, pulling this seat back onto the map. 8th District (Mike Bishop, R, re-elected with 56%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. Democrats had a rough time against the congressman last cycle when their nominee, Little House on the Prairie actress Melissa Gilbert, dropped out of the race late citing health problems. Their replacement nominee got a little traction in the media but lost by 17 points. Democrats believe they still haven t had the opportunity to litigate their case against Bishop and believe they ll get a top recruit here. 9th District (Sander Levin, D, re-elected with 58%). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. Some Republicans are excited after Trump won Macomb County even though he lost the district to Clinton. Even if Levin retires, it seems like a long-shot for Republicans as long as Trump is president. Solid D. 11th District (Dave Trott, R, re-elected with 53%). Trump 49.7%. DCCC Target. This is another district where Democrats don t believe February 27,

6 House Overview: Minnesota - New Hampshire they ve fulling executed their case against the congressman. Trott was in the foreclosure business before getting elected to Congress but Democrats haven t had the right candidate or opportunity to fully press their case about his past. Minnesota. 1st District (Tim Walz, DFL, re-elected with 50%). Trump 53%. NRCC Target. The congressman had a closer-than-expected race in a southern Minnesota district Trump carried over Clinton. Republican Jim Hagedorn s showing in 2016 likely gives him a leg up to run again this cycle, particularly because he has navigated the party convention/ nominating process. Walz is also considering a run for governor. An open seat would be problematic for Democrats, while the district with Walz running is still a concern. Lean D. 2nd District (Jason Lewis, R, elected with 47%). Trump 47%. DCCC Target. For much of the cycle, Democrats were convinced that Lewis was unelectable because of his provocative statements from years as a talk radio show host. But Trump s performance as well as a third-party candidate complicated their plans nominee Angie Craig looks poised to run again, while it s unclear whether independent Paula Overby will try again as well. This is a top Democratic takeover opportunity. Toss-up. 3rd District (Erik Paulsen, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton Angie Craig 51%. DCCC Target. Paulsen was a key part of the Democrats narrative about surging in the suburbs and Trump anchoring Republican incumbents. But it didn t work in this suburban Twin Cities district. Still, Democrats aren t giving up, believe the partisanship of Congress will be heavier for Paulsen, and are searching for a new challenger. Their last nominee, Terri Bonoff, has apparently moved to Atlanta. Likely R. 7th District (Collin Peterson, DFL, re-elected with 53%). Trump 62%. NRCC Target. Peterson is no stranger to GOP target lists, but he probably didn t expect Trump to carry his district with over 60 percent of the vote. Republicans love the presidential results and how the opportunity looks on paper, but they still need a viable candidate. An open seat would be devastating to Democrats. Lean D. 8th District (Rick Nolan, DFL, re-elected with 50%). Trump 54%. NRCC Target. Nolan defeated wealthy Republican Stewart Mills last year for the second consecutive cycle and in impressive fashion with Clinton losing to Trump at the top of the ticket. Nolan is being courted to run for governor, but Democratic strategists believe it s less than likely he ll jump to a statewide bid. An open seat would be problematic for Democrats. Mills gets his share of negative attention, particularly for losing two races, but both contests have been very close. He hasn t ruled out a third run. Lean D. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call Missouri. 2nd District (Ann Wagner, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 53%. The congresswoman is expected to run for the Senate against Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill, leaving an open seat. Most of the fight to replace her will likely be in the GOP primary. Montana. At-Large District (Ryan Zinke, R, re-elected with 56%). Trump 57%. Likely 2017 Special Election. Trump nominated GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke to be Secretary of the Interior, but he s still waiting to be confirmed. Yet the jockeying to replace him has already started. Similar to Kansas, local party officials will select the two nominees at a convention instead of traditional primaries. On the Republican side, 2016 gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte has the support of Sen. Steve Daines and is regarded as the frontrunner. Democrats are selecting between a few candidates who are likely to lose in the special election. Nebraska. 2nd District (Don Bacon, R, elected with 49%). Trump 48%. DCCC Target. The Republican defeated Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford in one of the closest races in the country. Democrats were hoping Clinton would peel off an electoral vote by winning the Omaha-based district, but Trump carried it narrowly. Ashford hasn t ruled out running again and was a good fit for the seat. But his loss last year was the latest piece of evidence that Ashford only got to office because of GOP Rep. Lee Terry s ineptness. Lean R. Nevada. 3rd District (Jacky Rosen, D, elected with 47%). Trump 48%. NRCC Target. Nevada was a rare bright spot for Democrats on Election Night, including Rosen winning GOP Rep. Joe Heck s open seat as he ran for the Senate. But she defeated perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who underperformed Trump and may have been the only Republican who could have lost the race. Heck, who lost the Senate race, has all but said he s not going to run for his old seat. Michael Roberson, who lost in the 2016 Republican primary, may take another shot. But other candidates will look as well and another GOP primary is likely. Tilts D. 4th District (Ruben Kihuen, D, elected 49%). Clinton 49.5%. NRCC target. The Democrat defeated GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy, who was a surprise victor in This is supposed to be a Democratic district, but Clinton failed to top 50 percent. Republicans are likely to focus their effort on winning back the 3 rd District, but Democrats can t take this one for granted. Solid D. New Hampshire. 1st District (Carol Shea-Porter, D, elected with 44%). Trump 48%. NRCC Target. The former congresswoman avenged her 2014 loss by defeating GOP Rep. Frank Guinta. But her election percentage should set off alarm bells (particularly against Guinta, who had significant baggage), as should Trump s performance in the district. If Republicans can nominate someone other than Guinta, they should have a shot at taking back this seat. The challenge is that the primary is late and Republicans need a candidate who isn t broke heading into the general election sprint. Toss-Up. 6 February 27, 2017 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

7 House Overview: New Jersey - New York 2nd District (Ann McLane Kuster, D, re-elected with 49.7%). Clinton 49%. NRCC Target. Kuster struggled to reach 50 percent in a race that was largely ignored by national GOP strategists in a crowded and complicated cycle. But Clinton did better in New Hampshire compared to the nationwide results and Kuster may have survived the worst of the storm. Republicans are searching for a challenger. Solid D. New Jersey. 2nd District (Frank LoBiondo, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. Democrats are attracted to the relatively low Trump performance in the district, but sober strategists admit they probably need the congressman to retire before seriously challenging for the seat. 3rd District (Tom MacArthur, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. At this early stage in the cycle, Democrats can t walk away from a district that President Obama won twice. But this race won t be easy. MacArthur is a wealthy incumbent who can probably match any spending thrown at him by Democrats in a district where advertising in the Philadelphia media market is required. 5th District (Josh Gottheimer, D, elected with 51%). Trump 49%. NRCC Target. GOP Rep. Scott Garrett appeared to do everything in his power to make himself vulnerable, and Gottheimer took advantage of it. Now the new Democratic incumbent is adjusting to life representing a Trump district and will likely face a Republican with less baggage. State Josh Gottheimer Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi and Assemblymen Robert Auth and Parker Space are potential candidates, as well as state party chairman Sam Raia and some potential self-funders. Don t bet much money that Lou Dobbs will run. Toss-up. 7th District (Leonard Lance, R, re-elected with 54%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. Lance is a throwback in style to the old Northeast Republicans, but Democrats are hoping he gets lumped in with a national party that is more conservative. Clinton carried the district against Trump, and Democrats are trying to land a top recruit. Lance hosted a fiery town hall this week. This seat hasn t been in play in a few cycles but is worth watching. Likely R. 11th District (Rodney Frelinghuysen, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 49%. DCCC Target. The presidential performance is causing Democrats to take a look and try to pull it in play. It s possible but still a long-shot scenario right now. New Mexico. 1st District (Open; Michelle Lujan Grisham, D). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. The congresswoman is running for governor, leaving an open seat. The Albuquerque-based district hasn t been competitive in years, Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call and probably won t be next year, but it could come into play based on the nominees. Albuquerque voters will select a mayor this year and Democratic party strategists expect the second-place candidate in that race to leverage the loss into becoming the frontrunner for Congress. The race is still taking shape, but Democrats should hold it in a midterm with a Republican president. Solid D. 2nd District (Steve Pearce, R, re-elected with 63%.) Trump 50%. Democrats have been hot and cold on this seat for a few years now. The long-term Hispanic growth of the area probably endangers Pearce, but Democrats probably need him to run for governor to make it immediately vulnerable. 3rd District (Ben Ray Lujan, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. Clinton fell below 53 percent against Trump, but I think Republicans are just trying to play parlor games by adding the DCCC Chairman to their target list. Solid D. New York. 1st District (Lee Zeldin, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 55%. DCCC Target. Early last cycle, Democrats had high hopes for knocking off Zeldin. But Trump turned into an asset rather than a liability for the congressman, who trounced a once-touted candidate. Democrats are targeting Zeldin again, but the President would have to collapse to pull this back into play. 3rd District (Tom Suozzi, D, elected with 53%). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. Republican Jack Martins fell short in his bid to take over Democratic Rep. Steve Israel s open seat. He had to deal with a mess when his primary challenger was thrown off the ballot but challenged the ruling in court. The legal action took time away from the campaign and some focus off of Suozzi. Now Martins and Philip Pidot could run again. This doesn t look like a great GOP opportunity. Solid D. 11th District (Dan Donovan, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump 54%. DCCC Target. Democrats have been addicted to this seat since it was held by GOP Rep. Michael Grimm. It s the kind of seat that Democrats probably win in a wave, but there is little evidence they d win a hand-tohand local battle. 18th District (Sean Patrick Maloney, D, re-elected with 56%). Trump 49%. NRCC Target. Trump won the Hudson Valley district in a surprise, but the congressman will be difficult to beat. He s currently heading up a team looking into how the DCCC performed last cycle. In spite of Trump s performance, it s hard to see how Republicans beat Maloney with an unpopular Republican in the White House. Solid D. 19th District (John Faso, R, elected with 54%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. Faso struggled for much of the cycle against Democrat Zephyr Teachout for GOP Rep. Chris Gibson s open seat. But Clinton s late collapse likely helped Faso in the end. This could develop into a top Democratic opportunity. Tilt R. 22nd District (Claudia Tenney, R, elected with 47%). Trump 55%. DCCC Target. Tenney has more than her share of Republican and Democratic critics, but she navigated this competitive open seat race. Democrats believe she starts the race with higher negatives than the typical freshman, and she appeared to benefit from third-party candidate Martin Babinec. But she could be somewhat insulated by Trump s strength. Former GOP Rep. Richard Hanna was a legitimate moderate, February 27,

8 House Overview: North Carolina - Ohio but this district is more conservative than he was. Lean R. 24th District (John Katko, R, re-elected 61%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. The district looks like a top takeover target on paper, except Katko is one of Republicans strongest incumbents and Democrats don t have a natural challenger. Full analysis in the Feb. 10 issue. Likely R. 25th District (Louise Slaughter, D, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 56%. The congresswoman survived a close race in 2014 and won by a wider margin last year. But Republicans aren t going to let her off the hook. Some GOP strategists wonder if they can push her into retirement, but even though she is 87 years old, she may have less incentive than ever to leave. Solid D. 27th District (Chris Collins, R, re-elected with 67%). Trump 60%. DCCC Target. The congressman was one of Trump s earliest and only 2018 Senate Ratings Toss-Up Donnelly (D-Ind.) Manchin (D-W.Va.) Heitkamp (D-N.D.) McCaskill (D-Mo.) Tilt Democratic Tilt Republican Baldwin (D-Wis.) Nelson (D-Fla. Tester (D-Mont.) Lean Democratic Lean Republican Brown (D-Ohio) Heller (R-Nev.) Casey (D-Pa.) Likely Democratic Likely Republican Kaine (D-Va.) Flake (R-Ariz.) Solid Democratic Solid Republican Cantwell (D-Wash.) Barrasso (R-Wyo.) Cardin (D-Md.) Corker (R-Tenn.) Carper (D-Del.) Cruz (R-Texas) Feinstein (D-Calif.) Fischer (R-Neb.) Gillibrand (D- N.Y.) Hatch (R-Utah) Heinrich (D-N.M.) Strange (R-Ala.) Hirono (D-Hawaii) Wicker (R-Miss.) King (I- Maine) Klobuchar (D-Minn.) Menendez (D-N.J.) Murphy (D-Conn.) GOP DEM Sanders (I-Vt.) 115th Congress Stabenow (D-Mich.) Not up this cycle Warren (D-Mass.) Currently Safe 7 15 Whitehouse (D-R.I.) Competitive 2 10 Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call surrogates on the Hill throughout the campaign, and it s not surprising now that we ve seen the President s performance in the Buffalo-based district. But Democrats are going to try and develop an ethical case against Collins. And even if they can t defeat him, they ll hope it ties into a larger narrative of GOP corruption in Congress. North Carolina. 8th District (Richard Hudson, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 56%. DCCC Target. The congressman won re-election handily, but Democrats believe the district is trending in their direction. House races will top the ballot in the Tar Heel State. Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey, who finished second in the 2016 Democratic primary for Senate, is considering a run. Hudson is considered a strong incumbent and the congressman s wife Renee, formerly a long-time chief of staff on the Hill, just landed a job at the White House as chief of staff to Kellyanne Conway. 9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 54%. DCCC Target. Democratic optimism starts with the congressman s ethics troubles (he s under investigation by the FBI) and problems within his own party (he won his 2016 primary by 134 votes). They might also have a top recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is a Duke University and Harvard Business School graduate that served in Iraq with the Marines. Democrats need Pittenger to be renominated, which isn t a guarantee. Solid R but worth watching. 13th District (Ted Budd, R, elected 56%). Trump 53%. DCCC Target. Democrats don t want to give Budd a pass in his first re-election, but they need to find a quality challenger. North Dakota. At-Large District (Kevin Cramer, R, re-elected with 69%). Trump 64%. The congressman is considered the top contender against Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. If he runs, there will likely be a crowded field of Republicans to replace him. Ohio. 1st District (Steve Chabot, R, re-elected with 59%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. This doesn t look like a great opportunity on paper, but it was Clinton s closest district in the face of an 8-point loss statewide and Democrats may have a strong challenger against the congressman. Stay tuned. 7th District (Bob Gibbs, R, re-elected Steve Chabot with 64%). Trump 63%. DCCC Target. Similar to the 1 st District, Democratic optimism centers on the potential for a top recruit. 13th District (Tim Ryan, D, re-elected with 68%). Clinton 51%. NRCC Target. Ryan ran unsuccessfully against Nancy Pelosi for Democratic leader but may have bolstered his anti-national Democratic 8 February 27, 2017 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research

9 House Overview: Oklahoma - Texas image to run for governor. An open seat could be a problem for Democrats in a region that looks to be shifting away from the party. But if Ryan runs for re-election, it s hard to see how Republicans have the bandwidth and resources to seriously challenge here. Solid D. 16th District (Jim Renacci, R, re-elected with 65%). Trump 56%. The congressman is considering a run for governor, and there would be plenty of potential Republicans in an open seat including Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor and new state party chairwoman Jane Timken. Oklahoma. 1st District (Open; Jim Bridenstine, R). Trump 61%. The congressman told a local group back in 2015 that he would abide by his three-term limit pledge. It s not completely clear whether he will stick with it but candidates are starting to make moves based on that assumption. Oregon. 4th District (Peter DeFazio, D, re-elected with 55%). Clinton 46.1%. NRCC Target. Clinton carried the Eugene-anchored seat in Southern Oregon by the narrowest of margins, and the district will be competitive once the congressman retires. But Republicans have struggled to get a top-tier recruit and a midterm with a Republican president probably isn t the right time to win here. Solid D. 5th District (Kurt Schrader, D, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 48%. NRCC Target. Similar to the 4 th CD, this Willamette Valley district looks like an attractive GOP target on paper, but Republicans haven t been able to find the right candidate to win in nearly 20 years. Solid D. Pennsylvania. 3rd District (Mike Kelly, R, unopposed in 2016). Trump 61%. The congressman is seriously considering a run against Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. His open seat in Northwest Pennsylvania would attract a slew of potential GOP successors. 6th District (Ryan Costello, R, re-elected with 57%). Clinton 48%. DCCC Target. The congressman was on the outskirts of Republican concern as the cycle appeared to be spiraling out of control. But Trump didn t crater and Costello outperformed the top of the ticket by 10 points. Democrats believe they might get a top recruit here. This is the type of suburban/exurban district Democrats need to win to get the majority. Likely R. 7th District (Pat Meehan, R, re-elected with 60%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. This is another must-win seat for Democrats with a tough GOP incumbent. Meehan recently announced he is not running for the Senate, dashing Democratic hopes of an open seat. The close partisanship and demographics point to a competitive race, but Meehan will be hard to beat without a wave. Likely R. 8th District (Brian Fitzpatrick, R, elected with 54%). Trump 48%. DCCC Target. At one point in the fall, Democrats were convinced that this suburban Philadelphia seat would go heavily for Clinton and help the party down the ballot. But Trump ended up carrying the district and GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick s brother Brian won the open seat. Democrats are determined to avoid voter confusion between the two Fitzpatricks and compete once again. Lean R. Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call 16th District (Lloyd Smucker, R, elected with 54%). Trump 51%. DCCC Target. GOP Rep. Joe Pitt s open seat was supposed to be the bellwether for a Democratic wave last cycle. It was, just not in the direction Democrats wanted. Trump carried the southeast Pennsylvania district and Smucker won the open seat Democratic nominee Christina Hartman Christina Hartman overperformed initial expectations and could run again. Lean R. 17th District (Matt Cartwright, D, re-elected with 54%). Trump 53%. NRCC Target. Even though Republicans redrew this seat to elect a Democrat during the last round of redistricting, some GOP strategists identified this as a potential takeover opportunity last year as Trump s populist message resonated in the region. Republicans won t be able to sneak up on the congressman this time, but it s worth watching, depending on the strength of the GOP candidate. Likely D. South Carolina. 5th District (VACANT, R). Trump 57% Special Election. GOP Rep. Mick Mulvaney resigned his seat to become Trump s director of the Office of Management and Budget, and the fight to replace him will take place on the Republican side. Recently former state Rep. Ralph Norman and former state party chairman Chad Connelly look like the initial frontrunners but attorney Tom Mullikin is a credible candidate as well. You can read the initial analysis of the race in the Feb. 10 issue. South Dakota. At-Large District (Open; Kristi Noem, R). Trump 62%. The congresswoman is running for governor, leaving her statewide seat open. Former public utilities commissioner Dusty Johnson, also a former chief of staff to Gov. Dennis Daugaard, is likely to run and Secretary of State Chantel Krebs is considering a bid as well. Tennessee. 6th District (Diane Black, R, re-elected with 71%). Trump 73%. The congresswoman is likely to run for governor, leaving behind an open seat. A crowded GOP primary should be expected. Texas. 3rd District (Open; Sam Johnson, R). Trump 55%. The 86-year old former Vietnam POW is finally calling it quits. Trump didn t win the district overwhelmingly but Democrats don t have it on their initial target list. GOP state Sen. Van Taylor (who lost a challenge to Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards in 2006) will be a top contender because of his personal money and because he represents 94 percent of the congressional district in the Legislature. February 27,

10 House Overview: Utah - Wisconsin 7th District (John Culberson, R, re-elected with 56%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. Democrats can smell a targeted race -- in a district Clinton carried -- against a long-time incumbent who won with an underwhelming margin. Democrats need to find a quality challenger, but this could develop into a serious opportunity. Likely R. 16th District (Beto O Rourke, D, re-elected with 86%). Clinton 68%. The congressman looks poised to challenge GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. O Rourke, who was first elected in 2012, came into office on a self-term limits pledge, so he wasn t planning on sticking around the El Pasobased district in west Texas. It s a heavily Hispanic seat that may finally get a Hispanic Member again after O Rourke topped Silvestre Reyes in the Democratic primary. Solid D. 23rd District (Will Hurd, R, re-elected with 48%). Clinton 49.8%. DCCC Target. Hurd proved why many Republicans consider him to be one of their toughest incumbents by winning re-election against former Rep. Pete Gallego while Trump lost the border district to Clinton. But that won t stop Will Hurd Democrats from taking another shot at the congressman. Toss-up. 32nd District (Pete Sessions, R, re-elected with 71%). Clinton 49%. DCCC Target. Democrats didn t even field a candidate against the congressman last year, but Clinton carried the district and the party has set their sights on the seat. Dallas School Board Member Miguel Solis is considering a run and represents Love Field and parts of central and northwest Dallas. But Democrats might need a candidate from Highland Park. Utah. 3rd District (Jason Chaffetz, R, re-elected with 74%). Trump 47%. Don t be deceived by Trump falling below 50 percent in the district or people yelling at the congressman at town hall meetings since Clinton came in at 23 percent. Any Chaffetz vulnerability would be in the GOP primary. Former presidential candidate Evan McMullin is apparently interested in challenging Chaffetz or GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch next year. Virginia. 2nd District (Scott Taylor, R, elected with 61%). Trump 49%. DCCC Target. Democrats are hoping the new congressman moves too far to the right during his first term and Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine runs strong in this battleground region of the commonwealth. Democrats need a strong challenger and some help from the national climate. 10th District (Barbara Comstock, R, re-elected with 53%). Clinton 52%. DCCC Target. The competitive suburban district received a lot of attention last cycle because of its proximity to Washington, D.C. In spite of a heavy Democratic effort and Clinton carrying the district, Comstock Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call prevailed. The congresswoman has been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate, but she is more likely to run for re-election, which is good news for House Republicans because an open seat would be difficult to defend. Comstock still has to be concerned if the national political climate turns against Republicans. Lean R. Washington. 3rd District (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R, re-elected with 62%). Trump 49.9%. DCCC Target. Democrats have been reluctant to challenge the congresswoman, considering the district s Republican tinge and the positive media she received about her special needs child. But Clinton coming close in the presidential race and some potential recruits have renewed Democratic interest. 6th District (Derek Kilmer, D, re-elected with 62%). Clinton 52%. NRCC Target. Clinton fell below 53 percent so Republicans put it on their target list. It s not happening. Solid D. 8th District (Dave Reichert, R, re-elected with 60%). Clinton 48%. DCCC Target. Clinton won the district so Democrats have to put it on their list. But it would take extraordinary circumstances for the congressman to lose. Some locals still think of him first as the sheriff who caught the Green River Killer. 10th District (Denny Heck, D, re-elected with 59%). Clinton 51%. NRCC Target. Similar to the 6 th District, the DCCC Recruitment Chairman finds himself on the GOP target list because of Clinton s performance. He s not going to lose. Solid D. West Virginia. 2nd District (Alex Mooney, R, re-elected with 58%). Trump 66%. DCCC Target. Democrats have a scenario where the non-presidential year allows them to win a local election in the middle swath of West Virginia. It s probably not going to happen. Wisconsin. 3rd District (Ron Kind, D, ran unopposed). Trump 49%. NRCC Target. Republicans probably wish they recruited a candidate against Kind considering Trump defeated Clinton in the district. Now the congressman is considering a run for governor and an open seat would be a boon to GOP takeover prospects. Dan Kapanke, who lost to Kind by about 4 points in 2010, may run again. Likely D. CALENDAR March 20 April 2 April 4 April 11 April 18 May 2 June Gorsuch SCOTUS Confirmation Hearing Begins Baseball Opening Day California s 24th Special Primary Election Kansas 4th Special General Election Georgia s 6th Special Primary Election South Carolina s 5 Special Primary Elections California s 24th Special General Election 10 February 27, 2017 Nonpartisan Analysis & Research