POLITICS IN THE AGE OF TRUMP. Doug Sosnik November 6, 2018
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1 POLITICS IN THE AGE OF TRUMP Doug Sosnik November 6,
2 If you look at the map of the United States, there is all that red in the middle, places where Trump won," she said. What that map doesn't show you is that I won the places that own two thirds of America's Gross Domestic Product". -Hillary Clinton, March 10,
3 Trump Carried 84% of the Counties in the United States in 2016 Source: Brilliant Maps, November
4 The Last Time a Trump County Voted Republican in a Presidential Election Source: The Washington Post, May
5 Public Trust in Government Near Historic Lows Source: Pew Research Center, December,
6 Americans Have Lost Faith In Most Institutions In Our Country Source: Gallup, June,
7 Free Trade s Impact on the United States Which U.S. Regions have been most susceptible to competition from Chinese Imported Source: MIT Technology Review, David Autor, August 23,
8 Since 1980 s, Labor Productivity and Real GDP Have Risen, Private Employment and Median Household Income Have Fallen 1953=100 Labor Productivity Private Employment Median Household Income Real GDP Source: U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
9 INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY SINCE 1980 Source: Congressional Budget Office via the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities 9
10 SOCIAL MOBILITY IS ON THE DECLINE Source: Chetty et al, The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility since 1940 via Brookings 10
11 Access to Education Depends on Family Income Source: Chetty et al, Where is the land of opportunity? The geography of intergenerational mobility in the US via Brookings 11
12 Share of U.S. Population By Country of Birth Source: University of Minnesota, August 30,
13 Trump s Job Approval Rating Improving But Still Under 50 Percent %-Disapprove %-Approve Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Source: NBC-WSJ, October 21,
14 Trump s Job Approval Highest with Republicans, Whites, Men, Older and Less Educated Voters 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Washington Post/ABC Poll, October 11,
15 Satisfaction With The Way Things Are Going In The U.S. Reaches Highest Since % Jan-05 May-06 Sep-07 Jan-09 May-10 Sep-11 Jan-13 May-14 Sep-15 Jan-17 Sep- May-18 Source: Gallup, September 17,
16 Trump s Economy Job Approval Net Positive %-Approve %-Disapprove Approval Disapproval Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Sept-18 Jul-18 Source: The Economist/YouGov, September
17 FEDERAL RACES 17
18 The 2010 Midterm Wave Election A Lost Decade for Democrats at the State and Local Level Administration Job Approval Senate House Governors State Legislators Clinton % Clinton % Bush % Bush % Obama % Obama %
19 Apr-97 Dec-97 Aug-98 Apr-99 Dec-99 Aug-00 Apr-01 Dec-01 Aug-02 Apr-03 Dec-03 Aug-04 Apr-05 Dec-05 Aug-06 Apr-07 Dec-07 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Dec-17 Aug-18 Oct-18 Congressional Generic Ballot % % Democrat-Controlled Congress Republican-Controlled Congress Source: WSJ/NBC October 17,
20 Fundraising for Congress, By Party Source: Axios, October 18,
21 Spike in Democratic Congressional Candidates Largest spike by either party since 2010 GOP Wave Source: FEC. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios, September 19,
22 History of Women Running for House and Senate Source: Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University 22
23 House & Senate Republican Retirements Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results Republican 2016 Presidential Election Results Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL D+20 Bob Goodlatte, VA* R+25 Pat Meehan, PA D+2.3 Dave Reichert, WA D+3 Ed Royce, CA* D+9 Frank LoBiondo, NJ R+5 Blake Farenthold, TX R+24 Gregg Harper, MS* R+24 Kristi Noem, SD R+30 Sam Johnson, TX R+14 Ted Poe, TX R+9 Lou Barletta, PA R+24 Darrell Issa, CA D+7 Jeb Hensarling, TX* R+28 Rodney Frelinghuysen, NJ* R+1 Charlie Dent, PA R+8 Todd Rokita, IN R+34 Thad Cochran, MS R Dave Trott, MI R+4 Steve Pearce, NM R+11 Jim Bridenstine, OK R+17 Luke Messer, IN R+40 Jason Chaffetz, UT* R+25 Tim Murphy, PA D+13 Ron DeSantis, FL R+17 Bill Shuster, PA R+42 Trent Franks, AZ R+21.2 Pat Tiberi, OH* R+11 John Duncan, TN R+35 Martha McSally, AZ D+4.9 Jim Renacci, OH R+17 Marsha Blackburn, TN R+20 Kevin Cramer, ND R+36.4 Joe Barton, TX R+12 Raul Labrador, ID R+38 Orrin Hatch, UT R+17.9 Lynn Jenkins, KS R+18 Evan Jenkins, WV R+49 Jeff Flake, AZ R+3.57 Lamar Smith, TX* R+10 Diane Black, TN R+49 Bob Corker, TN R Source: Cook Political Report, September 2018 Note: Asterisks denote committee chairs 23
24 Share of Two-Party Vote in U.S. House Primaries Source: Axios, September 19,
25 2018 SENATE RACES 9 Republicans, 24 Democrats, are up for re-election ME OR CA WA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS TX MN 2 WI IA MO OK AR LA IL MS 2 MI PA OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC GA AL (OPEN) GA FL NY CT DE MD MA NJ RI VT DEM seats won by Trump (10) Democrat (26) AK Republican (9) Open Seats (3) HI Source: Real Clear Politics, September
26 Since 1988 Voters Have Increasingly Voted A Straight Ticket For President And U.S. Senate Source: Pew Research Center, June
27 STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A STATES WON BY PRESIDENT TRUMP WITH A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018 DEMOCRATIC SENATOR UP IN 2018 ME WA OR ID MT ND SD MN WI MI PA NY CA NV AZ UT WY CO NM NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA IL MS OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC GA AL (OPEN) GA FL Trump Margin >15% Trump Margin 6-10% AK Trump Margin 0-5% HI Toss-Up Senate Seats (3) Source: Real Clear Politics, September
28 2018 SENATE RACES 9 Republicans and 26 Democrats are up for re-election Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R CA Feinstein MI - Stabenow MN Smith FL Nelson ND Heitkamp MS Wicker CT Murphy OH Brown WV Manchin IN Donnelly MS- Hyde-Smith NE Fischer DE Carper PA Casey MO McCaskill UT Open HI Hirono WI Baldwin MT Tester WY Barrasso MA Warren NJ Menéndez MD Cardin AZ Open ME - King(I) NV Heller MN Klobuchar TN Open NM Heinrich TX-Cruz NY Gillibrand RI Whitehouse VA Kaine VT - Sanders WA- Cantwell Source: Cook Political Report, October 26,
29 Split Ticket Voting For President And The U.S. House Has Declined Significantly In The Past 25 Years 250 Democrats Pres. Candidate and a House Republican Republican Pres. Candidate and a House Democrat Source: Pew Research Center, August 8,
30 2018 House Race Ratings Democrats need to Pick up a net of 23 seats to Take Back the House Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R O Halleran (AZ)* Bera (CA) Costa (CA-16) Murphy (FL) Peterson (MN)* Open- NH 1* Open- NJ 2 Gottheimer (NJ)* Vacant - PA 5 Open- PA 6 Cartwright (PA)* Rothfus (PA) *-Dem House Districts won by Trump *-Rep House Districts won by Clinton Open- AZ 2* Open-CA 49* Coffman (CO)* Open-FL 27* Blum (IA) Roskam (IL)* Yoder (KS)* Open- MI 11 Lewis (MN) Paulsen (MN)* Open- NJ 11 Open- NV 3* Open- NV 4 Vacant - PA 7 Comstock (VA)* Dem Open-MN 1* Rep. Denham (CA)* Knight (CA)* Open-CA 39* Walters (CA)* Rohrabacher (CA)* Open- FL 15 Curbelo (FL)* Young (IA) Hultgren (IL) Open- KS 2 Barr (KY) Poliquin (ME) Bishop (MI) Open- NC 9 Budd (NC) MacArthur (NJ) Lance (NJ)* Open- NM 2 Faso (NY) Tenney (NY) Balderson (OH) Fitzpatrick (PA) Culberson (TX)* Sessions (TX)* Love (UT) Taylor (VA) Brat (VA) Open- WA 8* Young (AK) Hunter (CA) Open- FL 6 Buchanan (FL) Mast (FL) Handel (GA) Woodall (GA) King (IA) Bost (IL) Davis (IL) Open- MN 8* Wagner (MO) Gianforte (MT) Holding (NC) Bacon (NE) Donovan (NY) Katko (NY)* Collins (NY) Chabot (OH) Perry (PA) Kelly (PA) Open SC 1 Olson (TX) Hurd (TX)* Open- VA 5 Herrera Beutler (WA) McMorris Rodgers-WA 5 Open- WI 1 Open- WV 3 Hill (AR) Schweikert (AZ) Lesko (AZ) LaMalfa (CA) McClintock (CA) Valadao (CA)* Nunes (CA) Tipton (CO) Diaz-Balart (FL) Walorski (IN) Bergman (MI) Amash (MI) Upton (MI) Walberg (MI) Hudson (NC) Zeldin (NY) King (NY) Stefanik (NY) Reed (NY) Turner (OH) Joyce (OH) Russell (OK) Open- PA 14 Open- TX 2 Open- TX 21 Marchant (TX) Carter (TX) Grothman (WI) Source: Cook Political Report, October 30,
31 STATE AND LOCAL RACES 31
32 2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES 26 Republicans, 9 Democrats, & 1 Independent are up for re-election WA ME CT OR NV CA AK ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS TX MN WI IA MO OK AR LA IL MS NY MI PA OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC GA AL (OPEN) GA FL MD MA NH NJ RI VT Open Seat (4 Dem, 13 Rep) 2017 Election (VA, NJ) Democrat (9) Republican (26) HI Independent (1) 32
33 2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES 36 races, 17 are open seats Republicans defending 8 seats carried by Clinton in 2016, Democrats defending 1 seat carried by Trump Republicans (26) Independents (1) Democrats (9) Republican Incumbent (14) Republican Open Seat (13) Independent Incumbent (1) Democrat Open Seat (4) Democrat Incumbent (5) Alabama Arizona Arkansas Illinois* Iowa Maryland* Massachusetts* Nebraska New Hampshire* South Carolina Texas Vermont* Wisconsin Florida Georgia Idaho Kansas Maine* Michigan Nevada* New Mexico* Ohio Oklahoma South Dakota Tennessee Wyoming Alaska California Colorado Minnesota Connecticut Hawaii New York Oregon Rhode Island Pennsylvania** * Clinton States (8) ** Trump State (1) Source: Cook Political Report, September 14,
34 2018 Governor Race Ratings Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss Up Lean R Likely R Solid R Open- CA Open- MN Open- CO Dems: Walker (AK) Ducey (AZ) Ivey (AL) Ige (HI) Wolf (PA) Ralmondo (RI) Open- CT Sununu (NH) Hogan (MD) Hutchinson (AR) Cuomo (NY) Rauner (IL) Open- NM Brown (OR) McMaster (SC) Open- ID Open- MI Reps: Open- TN Baker (MA) Open- FL Ricketts (NE) Open- GA Abbott (TX) Reynolds (IA) Open- WY Open-KS Scott (VT) Open- ME Open- NV Open- OH Open- OK Open- SD Walker (WI) Source: Cook Political Report, October 26,
35 2018 Trifecta States: One Party Controls the Governors Mansion and the State Legislature 30 Control of the States Pre-2010 Pre-2012 Pre-2014 Pre-2016 Pre-2018 Republican Democrat Divided Source: Ballotpedia 35
36 2018 Trifecta States ME WA OR CA NV ID AZ UT MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS TX MN WI IA MO OK AR LA IL MS MI PA OH IN WV VA KY NC TN SC GA AL (OPEN) GA FL NY GOP (26) AK DEM (8) SPLIT (17) HI Source: Ballotpedia 2/7/
37 APPENDIX A 37
38 Chinese Tariffs Hit Trump Counties Harder Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 6,
39 Opioid Overdose Death Rates in the U.S. Death Rate per 100,000 Population in 2015 Source: CDC,
40 Suicide Rates are Up 30% Since 1999 Source: NBC, June 9,
41 Obesity Percentage Among U.S. Adults by State in 2016 Source: CDC,
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