This Ain t No Filibuster: Government Affairs Briefing

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2 This Ain t No Filibuster: Government Affairs Briefing GCSAA Government Affairs Team Jack MacKenzie, CGCS - Retired Tuesday, February 6, 2018

3 Kevin Breen, CGCS Government Affairs Committee Chair

4 2017 Government Affairs Committee Mark Jordan, CGCS - Vice-Chair - OH Ken Gorzycki, CGCS - TX Scott Kinnan, CGCS - VA Scott Brickley - OH Joe Gardner - NY Stu Rowland - CA Bill Bieck, CGCS - NE Scott Phelps, CGCS - WA Wally Gresham - GA Erin Stevens, CGCS, MG - FL

5 Bob Helland Director, Congressional & Federal Affairs

6 What to expect in 2018 Fiscal Year 2018 Budget not completed Fiscal Year 2019 Budget needs to be signed into law by October 1, 2018 Debt ceiling needs to be increased by March 2018 Possible immigration vote Midterm elections

7 REPUBLICAN PRIORITIES While Republicans have had some success in 2017, they did not achieve all their goals Top 10 priorities for Trump and Republicans in 2017 Overhaul the nation s health care market Only repealed the ACA individual mandate Pass $1 trillion infrastructure package No legislative proposals for infrastructure Cut taxes for corps. and middle class Corporate rate cut from 35% to 21% Temporarily cut middle income taxes and also removed some important deductions Repeal Obama-era regulations Passed 16 Congressional Review Act bills which repeal regulations Trump s cabinet stalled or reversed many rules Appoint conservative judges Neil Gorsuch was confirmed to Supreme Court Senate approved many judges for life appointments Build a wall along the Mexican border Prototypes have been ordered but not funded or approved by Congress Increase fossil fuel production The Dakota and Keystone pipelines were approved The EPA has withdrawn some rules on fossil fuels Institute conservative social policy 20-week abortion ban passed House but not Senate Trump rolled back the ACA birth control mandate, but it is stalled in court Increase funding for the military Appropriations have stalled in the Senate Prioritize charter over public schools While 2018 appropriations are not finished, the current plan does not include charter school funding

8 EXECUTIVE ORDERS Trump signed more executive orders in his first year than his three most recent predecessors Executive orders by president Yearly average of EOs at end of term or Number of EOs signed in the first year Trump 55 Obama W. Bush Clinton* *Clinton did not sign any executive orders his first year in office, but signed 52 the next year Sources: National Journal research, National Archives.

9 ENERGY REGULATORY ROLLBACK The Trump administration has overturned a significant number of rules with many more in progress Status of environmental rules and regulations under the Trump administration Overturned rules Rollbacks in progress Rollbacks in limbo Sources: Nadja Popvich and Livia Albeck-Ripka, 52 environmental rules on the way out under Trump, The New York Times, October 6, 2017.

10 NOMINATION TRACKER While the pace of nominations has sped up, Trump still lags behind his predecessors in filling the federal workforce Number of administration officials nominated and confirmed BY THE END OF EACH PRESIDENT S FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE Average number of days to confirm nominees Confirmed Nominated (on executive calendar) Nominated (in committee) Failed Trump Obama Bush* Clinton *All of President Bush s nominees were returned before fall recess in 2001, which is not reflected in his failed column Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

11 CURRENT STATUS Congress averted a gov t shutdown by pushing major decisions on spending limits, DACA and border security into January Current status of FY18 budget negotiations *Denotes the pace of the process under regular order February* March April* May September* President releases budget request (Completed in May) Senate passes budget resolution (Passed) S H House passes budget resolution (Passed) Congress passes combined budget Resolution (Passed) Appropriations subcommittees draft bills (In process) x12 Subcommittees Senate s 12 appropriations bills (0 passed) Senate Bills X X X X X X X X X X X X House Bills X X X X X X X X X X X X House s 12 appropriations bills (All passed) Congress combines and passes 12 bills (0 passed) Combined X X X X X X X X X X X X Any unfinished appropriations bills combined into omnibus bill Important details Congress passed legislation before Christmas which extended the budgetary deadline to January 19 th The Senate has not yet voted on any FY2018 appropriations bills (other than supplemental appropriations for disaster relief) Senate Democrats have stated they will block appropriations until a DACA fix has been secured, although they did not shut down government in December Democrats in the House and Senate are also requesting equal increases in both defense and non-defense spending Other factors in play for the January deadline: CHIP appropriations, debtceiling increase and border wall funding Sources: Congress.gov

12 REPUBLICAN PRIORITIES With midterms looming, Republicans will have to rush to achieve their 2018 goals Top 5 priorities for Trump and Republicans before midterms Reform welfare programs Add work requirements to entitlements Allow states to drug test and other flexibilities Pass $1 trillion infrastructure package No legislative proposals for infrastructure Trump wavering on public-private partnerships Increase border security Build a wall (or fencing) along southern border Remove chain migration and lottery system Increase fossil fuel production Interior announced it is reopening its review of drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts Repeal Obama-era regulations EPA still must finalize rules related to water, the Clean Power Plan and toxic chemicals

13 LEGISLATIVE FORECAST FOR THE 115 TH CONGRESS Debt ceiling Recent key developments on the debt ceiling and potential future actions November 2015: Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015: In a budget compromise between congressional leaders and the White House, the debt ceiling was suspended until March 2017, allowing normal borrowing to resume. March 2017: Debt ceiling reinstated: The debt limit was automatically raised to the debt level on March 16, 2017; the CBO estimated that the Treasury would be able to use extraordinary measures to fund essential payments until sometime in the fall of September 2017: Debt ceiling suspended: The debt limit was suspended until December 2017, in a deal Trump made with congressional Democrats to pass a package of bills including emergency funding for Hurricane Harvey and a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through December 8. Potential actions Republicans must act to raise the debt ceiling before March 2018, when the Treasury Department is expected to run out of cash to pay the government s bills Involved in the debt ceiling debate, Congress has to reach a two-year budget deal, including a reauthorization of the Children s Health Insurance Program and how to handle so-called Dreamers, young people living in the U.S. illegally who were brought here as children Congressional leaders hope to reach a two-year agreement that would set federal spending above limits established in a 2011 debt-limit fight December 2017: Continuing resolution passed: To keep the government running, Congress passed another continuing resolution for the budget in late December. The debt ceiling was not lifted or suspended. Legislative timeline February 2013 October 2013 February 2015 March 2015 No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013: A bill which temporarily suspended the debt limit until May 28, 2013 and put congressional pay on hold until a budget resolution could be passed Continuing Appropriations Act, 2014: A continuing resolution passed in fiscal year 2014, which funded the government and suspended the debt limit until February 2015 to give lawmakers more time to negotiate a compromise proposal Temporary Debt Limit Extension Act: Both houses of Congress passed a debt ceiling extension, suspending the ceiling until March 15, 2015 Debt limit reinstated: The suspension of the debt ceiling was lifted in March; the Treasury took extraordinary measures to allow the government to pay its bills through November

14 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN The key issue: DACA, an Obama-era program that protects young immigrants who grew up in the US What is DACA? DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), passed in 2012, allowed 800,000 undocumented immigrants brought here as children to stay in the US. Qualified immigrants can get licenses, pay tuition, work and live without fear of deportation. DACA is almost entirely funded by its own application fees. Who supports DACA? Almost all Democrats in Congress support DACA A 2017 poll found that 78% of voters agreed that DREAMERS should be able to stay in the US Some GOP members, including Paul Ryan (R- WI), have publicly opposed cutting DACA, instead favoring reform Who opposes DACA? Most Republicans oppose DACA; in 2013, almost all House Republicans voted to defund DACA Approx. number of active DACA recipients whose registration expires between Sept. 5, 2017 and Mar. 5, 2018

15 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN The shutdown ended on Monday, January 22 Senate vote on amendment to H.R. 195 House vote on amendment to H.R Votes Needed 218 Votes Needed to Pass Votes by party Yea Nay Not votin g Republicans Democrats Independents Total Votes by party Yea Nay Not voting Republicans Democrats Total

16 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN The shutdown ended on Monday, January 22 The new continuing resolution appropriates funds to keep the government open through Feb. 8 Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledged to allow a vote on a measure to reinstate DACA and promised a level playing field for the debate if the issue is not resolved by early February The bill retained a provision that funds the Children s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for six years

17 CURRENT STATUS Three-day shutdown may be a preview of what s to come as Congress only has three weeks to address DACA legislation Current status of FY18 budget negotiations *Denotes the pace of the process under regular order February* March April* May September* President releases budget request (Completed in May) Senate passes budget resolution (Passed) S H House passes budget resolution (Passed) Congress passes combined budget Resolution (Passed) Appropriations subcommittees draft bills (In process) x12 Subcommittees Senate s 12 appropriations bills (0 passed) Senate Bills X X X X X X X X X X X X House Bills X X X X X X X X X X X X House s 12 appropriations bills (All passed) Congress combines and passes 12 bills (0 passed) Combined X X X X X X X X X X X X Any unfinished appropriations bills combined into omnibus bill Important details Congress failed to pass spending legislation, resulting in a government shutdown between January 19 and 22 Congress ultimately agreed to extend the deadline to Feb. 8 The Senate has not yet voted on any FY2018 appropriations bills (other than supplemental appropriations for disaster relief) Congress has now passed a total of four continuing resolutions The third disaster relief bill has stalled in the Senate Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to allow debate and a vote on DACA legislation before the next budget deadline

18 Midterm Elections are usually a referendum on the President

19 DONALD TRUMP APPROVAL RATINGS Trump s approval numbers are lower than any other elected president s at this point in their respective terms Gallup comparative presidential approval ratings IN JANUARY OF EACH PRESIDENT S SECOND YEAR Source: Gallup, December 13, 2017.

20 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS Comparison between generic ballot polling and outcomes Do you prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans or Democrats? NBC/WSJ POLL Democrats Republicans Not sure Net number of seats gained R+1 D+1 D+15 D+12 R+2 D+4 D+2 December: D '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Sources: NBC/WSJ rolling poll August 2000-October 2017

21 DONALD TRUMP APPROVAL RATINGS Tax reform gave President Trump s approval a slight bump, but it still remains negative overall Donald Trump approval ratings since inauguration HUFFPOST POLLSTER Approve Disapprove Average Jan. 7 65% 60% 55% 54% 50% 45% 41% 40% 35% 30% 25% 1/20 2/19 3/21 4/20 5/20 6/19 7/19 8/18 9/17 10/17 11/16 12/16 1/15 Source: HuffPost Pollster, Poll Chart: Donald Trump Approval Rating, 2017.

22 PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrats maintain a slight lead in party affiliation, while a growing number of people identify as independents Party identification GALLUP Republican Democrat Independent 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Average Jan 4 44% 28% 25% Average Dec 11 46% 27% 25% 0% 1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8 Source: Gallup, 2017.

23 Democrats need: 24 seats to win control of the House of Representatives 2 seats to win control of the Senate

24 2018 COOK SENATE RANKINGS To win back the Senate, Democrats would have to hold onto all their seats and pick up two of the Republican toss-ups Breakdown of 2018 Senate races THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT 13 Could the Senate flip? Three Republican seats are now considered toss-ups After Doug Jones s win in Alabama, Democrats only need to take two seats to gain majority Solid Democrat Likely Democrat Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican Likely Republican Solid Republican Feinstein (CA) Murphy (CT) Carper (DE) Hirono (HI) Cardin (MD) Warren (MA) Klobuchar (MN) Heinrich (NM) Gillibrand (NY) Whitehouse (RI) Cantwell (WA) Kaine (VA) Sanders (VT)(I) Stebenow (MI) Tester (MT) Menendez (NJ)* Casey (PA) Baldwin (WI) Nelson (FL) Brown (OH) King (ME)(I) Heitkamp (ND) Donnelly (IN) McCaskill (MO) Manchin (WV) Smith (MN) Heller (NV) Flake (AZ)** Corker (TN)** Wicker (MS) Fisher (NE) Cruz (TX) Hatch (UT)** Barrasso (WY) * Potential retirement ** Announced retirement

25 2018 MIDTERM SENATE ELECTION Of the 23 Democratic senators up for reelection, Trump won 10 of their states and five by double digits Senators up for reelection in states won by the opposing party s 2016 presidential candidate PERCENTS INSIDE THE STATE REPRESENT BY HOW MUCH THE OTHER PARTY S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WON IN 2016 Clinton victory Trump victory Democratic senator up for reelection Republican senator up for reelection Dean Heller (R) won in 2012 by 1.2% Jon Tester (D) won in 2012 by 4% CA OR WA NV 2.4% ID UT AZ Heidi Heitkamp (D) won in 2012 by 0.9% MT 20% WY NM CO ND 36% SD NE KS OK Tammy Baldwin (D) won in 2012 by 5.6% MN IA MO 19% AR WI 0.7% IL MS MI 0.3% IN 19% TN AL KY OH 8.1% WV 42% GA Debbie Stabenow (D) won in 2012 by 21% SC PA 0.7% VA NC NY ME Joe Donnelly (D) won in 2012 by 5.7% Claire McCaskill (D) won in 2012 by 16% Sherrod Brown (D) won in 2012 by 6.0% Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won in 2012 by 9.1% Joe Manchin (D) won in 2012 by 14% AK TX LA HI FL 1.2% Bill Nelson (D) won in 2012 by 13% Sources: National Journal Research, 2017.

26 In midterm elections where the President had a sub- 50 percent approval rating in the past half-century: A 49 percent approval for President Johnson at the time of the 1966 elections resulted in a 47-seat House loss; A 47 percent approval for President Ford in 1974 was accompanied by a 48-seat loss; A 43 percent approval rating for President Reagan in 1982 came with a 26-seat loss; A 46 percent approval rating in 1994 for President Clinton fueled a 52-seat loss; A 39 percent approval rating for President George W. Bush in 2006 resulted in a 30-seat loss; A 45 percent approval rating in 2010 for President Obama led to a 63-seat loss. The only exception to this pattern was that Democrats only lost 13 seats in 2014 when Obama s approval was just 42 percent but after their 2010 drubbing and just an 8-seat pickup in 2012, Democrats didn t really have many competitive seats to lose in 2014.

27 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS Presidential referendum: presidents with a sub-50% approval rating lose an average of 40 seats in the midterms Presidential job approval vs. midterm results since % 52% 63% 58% 66% 63% 49% 47% 43% 46% % 45% 42% Trump Job Approval 39.9% RCP average: January 9, 2017 Job Approval Over 60% 50%-60% Under 50% Average Change +3 Seats -12 Seats -40 Seats Sources: Gallup, The Cook Political Report, National Journal

28 HOUSE ELECTIONS If Democrats retain all their seats in 2018, they must pick up all toss-ups as well as 5 lean-republicans Cook Political Report ratings HOUSE RACES 4 Democrat held seats 11 Republican held seats Likely Democrat Sinema (AZ-9)* Carbajal (CA-24) Crist (FL-13) Loebsack (IA-2) Peterson (MN-7) Kuster (NH-2) Suozzi (NY-3) Maloney (NY-18) Schrader (OR-5) Cartwright (PA-17) Kind (WI-3) Source: Cook Political Report. Lean Democrat O Halleran (AZ-1) McSally (AZ-2)* Bera (CA-7) Royce (CA-39)* Issa (CA-49)* Murphy (FL-7) Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27)* Gottheimer (NJ-5) Kihuen (NV-4) Excludes all seats marked as Solid Democrat or Solid Republican Dems need to pick up 24 seats to win majority *Incumbent not seeking reelection Toss Up Walz (MN-1)* Nolan (MN-8) Shea-Porter (NH-1)* Rosen (NV-3)* Knight (CA-25) Rohrabacher (CA-48) Coffman (CO-6) Curbelo (FL-26) Blum (IA-1) Roskam (IL-6) Trott (MI-11)* Lewis (MN-2) Bacon (NE-2) LoBiondo (NJ-2)* Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) Faso (NY-19) Culberson (TX-7) Comstock (VA-10) Reichert (WA-8)* Lean Republican Denham (CA-10) Walters (CA-45) Handel (GA-6) Young (IA-3) Bost (IL-12) Jenkins (KS-2)* Yoder (KS-3) Barr (KY-6) Poliquin (ME-2) Bishop (MI-8) Paulsen (MN-3) Lance (NJ-7) Tenney (NY-22) Costello (PA-6) Meehan (PA-7) Fitzpatrick (PA-8) Dent (PA-15)* Vacant (PA-18) Hurd (TX-23) Sessions (TX-32) Love (UT-4) Likely Republican Valadao (CA-21) Hunter (CA-50) Mast (FL-18) Woodall (GA-7) Davis (IL-13) Hultgren (IL-14) Walberg (MI-7) Gianforte (MT-0) Holding (NC-2) Pittenger (NC-9) Budd (NC-13) MacArthur (NJ-3) Pearce (NM-2)* Zeldin (NY-1) Donovan (NY-11) Katko (NY-24) Chabot (OH-1) Vacant (OH-12) Stivers (OH-15) Renacci (OH-16)* Smucker (PA-16) Taylor (VA-2) Garrett (VA-5) Brat (VA-7) McMorris Rodgers (WA-5) Grothman (WI-6)

29 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS gubernatorial elections will be very important because elected governors will be in office through 2020 redistricting Cook Political Report ratings 2017 & 2018 GUBERNATORIAL RACES Dem. incumbent (4) Dem. open* (5) Ind. incumbent (1) GOP incumbent (8) GOP open* (17) No election (10) WA CA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT ME NH MA RI CT NJ AZ NM OK AR TN NC SC DE MD MS AL GA AK TX LA HI FL * Open seats are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited or they have announced that they are not running for re-election Sources: Cook Political Report, 2017.

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31 Chava McKeel Director, Government Affairs

32 ADA Symposium

33 Waters Of The United States

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38 Fertilizers

39 The Oregon Bee Project State MP3 Stakeholders from all aspects of the industry attended. Golf courses in Oregon will play an important role. It was great to finally meet you. I have been hearing from Andony how progressive your industry is on environmental issues and was not disappointed. I think the framework your industry has put in place could really inform the bee project moving forward. It is great to have you on board! Oregon Department of Agriculture Plant Protection & Conservation Program Area

40 Portland Pesticide and Fertilizer Task Force Bob Searle Class A Superintendent Abenakee Club Biddeford Pool, ME

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42 Michael Lee Government Affairs Manager

43 Grassroots Ambassador Program 101 Who: Class A, B, C members What: Build Relationships with Members of Congress When: Advocacy happens throughout the year; Classes begin quarterly Where: Assignments based on golf facility location Why: All politics is local How: 2 in-person meetings per year

44 AMBASSADORS ACROSS THE COUNTRY

45 Ambassador Statistics Total number of current Grassroots Ambassadors = States Full 5 States with 1 Opening Colorado Connecticut Delaware Kansas Montana New Mexico Nevada Oklahoma Oregon South Dakota Utah Washington Wyoming Arkansas Georgia Idaho Nebraska West Virginia There are still opportunities to join and get engaged!

46 Ambassador Statistics 81/100 U.S. Senators paired with a Grassroots Ambassador States with Senate Spots Available Alaska Hawaii Indiana Kentucky Louisiana Maine Michigan Minnesota Missouri Mississippi North Carolina North Dakota New Hampshire Rhode Island Tennessee Vermont There are still opportunities to join and get engaged! Come see me in Member Services (booth #4119) GOAL: 535 Ambassadors by 2020

47 Presented in partnership with Advocacy Associates and Bayer.

48 Ambassador Academy with Stephanie Vance EIFG Donor & Grassroots Ambassador Reception

49 Grassroots Ambassador Mentor Program Kicks Off In 2018

50 GCSAA Advocacy Network Grassroots Ambassadors Good for personal, one-on-one contact with lawmaker or staff Personal outreach needed to this member Develop personal relationship with lawmaker Quality Advocacy Network Good for showing the importance of an issue in bulk Can be reached through less personal means Good for letting the world know how important an issue is Quantity We are building issue strike force teams!

51 Community Service Project on the National Mall

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53 Lobby Day

54 Tuesday, April 24 Noon to 2:00 WAG Board only

55 This Ain t No Filibuster: Government Affairs Issues Briefing Keynote Speaker Questions?

56 Questions? Capitol Visitors Center Congressional Reception

57 Why is National Golf Day important? Senator Moran Annual Ag Tour

58 Grassroots Ambassador Leadership Award

59 2018 Excellence in Government Affairs Award Winner Jack MacKenzie, CGCS This gentleman knows the power of advocacy!

60 Environmental Stewardship and Regulatory Actions Upon Minnesota Golf Courses* Jack MacKenzie, CGCS Executive Director Minnesota Golf Course Superintendents Association

61 The Three P s of Successful Advocacy: Proactive Partnerships Participation

62 Proactive: If you are not seated at the table, you are on the menu! The Minnesota advocacy initiative began in 2008 focused on water and grew into telling the GREAT Story of Golf

63 The Community's Largest Rain Garden 70,000 acres of semi managed green space 30% of most courses are out of play and native or natural Stormwater management Pollution abatement Erosion control Soil restoration Carbon sequestration Natural noise dampening Oxygen generation Glare and solar radiation suppression Heat dissipation and temperature moderation Wildlife sanctuary Pollinator habitat

64 Partnerships GCSAA USGA Minnesota Nursery and Landscape Association Minnesota Turf and Grounds Foundation UMN TROE Center and Dr. Horgan/Sam Bauer UMN Water Resources Center Environmental Initiative State Agencies: Bureau of Water and Soil Resources MN Department of Natural Resources MN Department of Agriculture MN Pollution Control Agency MN Department of Health MGA, CMAA, MPGA, MWGCOA, MGCSA: MN Allied Golf Assn. Freshwater Society Conservation Minnesota Isaac Walton League

65 Partnerships on the road

66 Participation MDA Pesticide Review Committee MPCA Stormwater Management Committee MDA Pollinator Strategic Planning Committee DNR NE Groundwater Strategic Planning Committee DNR Negative Threshold Water Interaction Committee Inter-Agency Water Re-Use Stakeholders Committee MDA Pesticide Certification Manual Re-write Committee UMN Arboretum Pollinator Summit Planning Committee UMN Water Re-Use Summit Planning Committee Legislative Water Commission Meetings DNR Roundtable Discussions Attend Golf-Centric House and Senate Committee Mtgs

67 Participation On a personal level: Community Parks Lakes and Trails Commission Responsible for city golf course contract review Responsible for athletic complex review Certified St. Croix Master Watershed Steward Comfort Lake Forest Lake Watershed Citizen Action Committee Host nine spring turf education sessions for homeowners Lead annual storm water drain stencil project Supported $850K watershed project at Forest Hills GC Opportunities abound to tell the great story

68 Proactive, partnerships and participation generates results: GCSAA creates BMP Template, MGCSA supports and develops Guidelines Manual MDA partners with MGCSA to create current agency manual on regulations and rules MDA partners with MGCSA to create Pesticide and Fertilizer BMPs specific to turfgrass MGCSA has positive dialogue with DNR to create contingency planning with local hydrologists through the creation of an Efficiency/Conservation BMP Manual

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70 Jack MacKenzie, CGCS Executive Director, Minnesota Golf Course Superintendents Association (651)

71 This Ain t No Filibuster: Government Affairs Briefing Questions?