Rethinking Growth Policy The Schumpeterian Perspective. EEA Meeting Geneva, August 2016
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1 Rethinking Growth Policy The Schumpeterian Perspective EEA Meeting Geneva, August 2016
2 Schumpeterian growth theory Long-run growth driven by innovations Innovations result from entrepreneurial activities motivated by prospect of innovation rents Creative destruction: new innovations displace old technologies
3 Some first policy implications (Intellectual) property right protection matters Macroeconomic stability matters Education matters
4 Competition and growth
5 Competition and growth: theoretical prediction
6 Competition and growth: empirical relationship
7 Schumpeterian model with step by step innovation Escape competition effect for frontier firms Schumpeterian effect for catching-up firms
8 Competition, growth and distance to frontier
9 Competition and growth: the inverted-u relationship
10 Applications of the step-by-step model Patent policy versus competition policy Industrial policy versus competition policy
11 Frontier innovation vs catch up growth
12 Enhancing productivity growth in advanced countries - Investment in higher education - Liberalization of product/labor market - Equity financing
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16 Enhancing productivity growth in emerging market economies Foster technology transfers Reallocate factors Improve management practices
17 Average management scores across countries are strongly correlated with GDP per capita 3.5 United States Japan Germany Sweden Canada ItalyFrance United Kingdom Australia Kenya India China Brazil Colombia MexicoPoland Chile Argentina New Zealand Singapore Portugal Republic of Ireland Greece Zambia Ethiopia Ghana Nicaragua Tanzania 2 3 Africa Australasia Asia Europe Latin America North America management x log of GDP PPP per capita Log of 10-yr average GDP based on PPP per capita GDP(Current int'l $ - Billions) Note: April 2013, World Economic Outlook (IMF) indicator Data includes 2013 survey wave as of 9/20/2013. Africa data not yet included in the paper
18 Wide variation in management: US and Japan leading, developing nations trailing (includes 2013 wave) United States Japan Germany Sweden Canada Great Britain France Italy Australia Poland Mexico Singapore New Zealand Northern Ireland Portugal Republic of Ireland Greece Chile China Brazil Argentina India Colombia Kenya Zambia Nicaragua Ethiopia Ghana Tanzania N=80 N=50 N=74 N=122 N=87 N=364 N=515 N=306 N=150 N=136 N=307 N=160 N=269 N=581 N=755 N=1111 N=558 N=840 N=127 N=120 N=1289 N=176 N=658 N=403 N=412 N=1208 N=632 N=313 N=454 Africa Asia Australasia Europe Latin America North America Average Management Scores, Manufacturing
19 Growth and firm dynamics The empirical literature has documented various stylized facts on firm size distribution and firm dynamics using micro firm-level data. the firm size distribution is highly skewed; firm size and firm age are highly correlated; small firms exit more frequently, but the ones that survive tend to grow faster than the average growth rate.
20 Firm Size Distribution with Multiproduct Firms
21 Applications of the Klette-Kortum model Industrial policy R&D policy Growth meets development
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23 Applications of Klette-Kortum Implications for industrial policy and R&D policy Implications for growth and developement
24 Link between the age and the size of firms
25 Distribution of firms productivity
26 Outstanding policy debates Optimal taxation and innovation-led growth Structural reforms and macroeconomic policy
27 Inequality and innovation-led growth
28 Group 1: Above median TFP/LP; Group2: Below median TFP/LP
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32 Structural reforms and macropolicy Debate on structural reforms and policy stimulus Are they mutually exclusive or complementary? Structural reforms are found to be complementary to counter-cyclical monetary policy counter-cyclical monetary policy benefits more the more financially constrained sector when barriers to entry are relatively low
33 Competition, Monetary cyclicality and Growth 33
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35 Conclusion Schumpeterian paradigm provides new lenses to analyze growth policy design For a New Growth Pact in Europe
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