Building Blocks of Research Process. Alan Monroe Chapter 2

Transcription

1 Building Blocks of Research Process Alan Monroe Chapter 2

2 Theories, Hypotheses, and Opera?onal Defini?ons (17) Building Blocks of the Research Process: Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2 Opera?onal Defini?on: How you measure variable 1 and variable 2.

3 Theories, Hypotheses, and Opera?onal Defini?ons (17) Theory It is a set of empirical generaliza>ons about a topic. It is too general to test since it makes statements about the rela>onship between abstract concepts. To test a theory, it has to be brought down to more specific terms. (17) Hypotheses This is done by tes>ng hypotheses, which is an empirical statement derived from a theory. They are statements about variables.

4 Theories, Hypotheses, and Opera?onal Defini?ons (17) Variables: (19) They are empirical proper>es that can take on two or more different values. Opera?onal Defini?on But even variables are not specific enough. Each variable in a hypothesis must have an opera>onal defini>on, that is, a set of direc>ons as to how the variable is to be observed and measured.

5 Types of Hypotheses (19) Types of Hypotheses: Univariate: making a statement about only one property or variable. (19) Mul?variate: a statement about how two or more variables are related. Most hypotheses are mul>variate and Direc?onal: that is, they suggest not only how the variables are related but what the direc>on of the rela>onship is. (19) Null Hypothesis: There is in fact no rela>onship between the stated independent and dependent variables.

6 Hypothesis Hypothesis: Variables (IV) Independent Variable: the cause of something (DV) Dependent Variable: the effect It is not always easy to determine the IV and DV. Control Variables: when they are used the intent is to ensure their effects are excluded.

7 Types of Hypotheses (19) Types of Direc?onal Rela?onships: Posi?ve/Nega?ve Posi?ve: variables move in the same direc>on: Example: 1. As income rises, so does vo>ng, 2. As income drops, so does vo>ng. Nega?ve (or Inverse): Variables move in opposite direc>ons: Example: 1. As income rises, homelessness drops.

8 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Hypothesis: IV: Cause DV: Effect Posi?ve: They go up together. IV: Cause DV: Effect They go down together.

9 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Hypothesis: IV: Cause DV: Effect Nega?ve: IV: Cause The variables move in opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship to each other. DV: Effect

10 Opera?onal Defini?ons (25) Tes>ng a hypothesis requires precise opera>onal defini>ons specifying how each Variable will be measured. If a variable cannot be opera>onally defined, it cannot be measured. Opera?onal Defini?ons: Two Requirements: 1) It must specify what we want to know 2) And where (or how) we will get that informa>on. Example: Say we want to examine ethnic diversity in Boston: What we want is how people in Boston iden>fy ethnically, and how we would get it would be to look at the most recent US census data on Boston.

11 Units of Analysis (22) Two common Units of Analysis: (26) Individuals: indicates either people in general, or a specific type of person (elected official, union member, etc). It can also refer to ins>tu>ons, such as interest groups, corpora>ons, poli>cal par>es. What you are doing is looking at how an individual unit, a person, a party is behaving. Polls are the best source of data on people in general, whereas their can be other sources of data on specific classes of individuals. (26) Groups: analyze group behavior, such as performance on some test. You don t go down to the individual. How did Democra>c state legislators vote on a par>cular issue, as a group? You use aggregates, as opposed to individual data points. It is not always easy to determine the unit of analysis. Yet the choice of which unit to use is extremely important. (22)

12 Units of Analysis (22) Units of Analysis: Gangs: Male Gangs (Group) [Compare to other groups] Gangs (Individual) [Compare to other gangs] Members (Individual) [Compare to other members] 12

13 Units of Analysis: Student Groups: Units of Analysis (22) Environmental Orgs (Group) [Compare to other groups] PIRG (Individual) [Compare to other gangs] Members (Individual) [Compare to other members] 13

14 Ecological Fallacy: (22-23) Ecological Fallacy erroneously drawing conclusions about individuals from groups. Solu>on: only draw conclusion about the units of analysis from which the data is actually drawn. Example of Ecological Fallacy: Afro- Americans and Wallace Student found a strong posi>ve (direc>onal) rela>onship between propor>on of a county that was Afro- American and those that voted for George Wallace and assumed Afro- Americans voted for Wallace. (22-23) In fact, virtually no minori>es supported Wallace. All the student really could say is that coun>es with a high number of Afro- Americans voted for Wallace. The county, not Afro- Americans was the unit of analysis.

15 Units of Analysis (22) Units of Analysis: Votes for Wallace Coun>es, not necessarily Black voters supported Wallace. Individuals: Voters Groups: County Black Black Supported Wallace White Compare to: Other Voters Compare to: Other Counties 15

16 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 is related to Variable 2 Opera?onal Defini?on: Theory: economic development is related to poli>cal development Hypothesis: The more industrialized a na>on, the greater the level of mass poli>cal par>cipa>on. Null: There is no rela>onship between industrializa>on and mass par>cipa>on. Opera?onal Defini?on: The higher percentage of manufacturing jobs (IV), as measured by United Na>ons Yearbook, the higher the percentage of people who voted (DV) in the last na>onal elec>on, according to the Stateman s Yearbook.

17 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Theory: Social networking technology (Concept 1) is related to poli>cal par>cipa>on (Concept 2). Hypothesis: Facebook usage (IV) promotes social movement ac>vity (DV) in a society by reducing the logis>cal and informa>onal costs associated with mass mobiliza>ons. Null: There is no rela>onship between Facebook usage and social movement ac>vity. Opera?onal Defini?on: IV: Facebook Usage: Number of Pages, Friends, Chats, Hits? DV: Social Movement Ac>vity: March Aeendance, Type of Ac>ons, Nature of Demands, Rhetoric?

18 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Hypothesis: Facebook usage (IV: Cause) promotes Soc. Move (DV: Effect) Posi?ve: They go up together. Facebook usage (IV: Cause) promotes Soc. Move (DV: Effect) They go down together.

19 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Hypothesis: Facebook usage (IV: Cause) promotes Soc. Move (DV: Effect) Nega?ve: The variables move in opposite directions. They have an inverse relationship to each other. Facebook usage (IV: Cause) promotes Soc. Move (DV: Effect)

20 EXAMPLES: Levels of Research: (18) Theory: Economic status effects poli>cal par>cipa>on. Hypothesis: The higher a person s income, the more likely they are to vote. Null: There is no rela>onship between income and vo>ng rates. Opera?onal Defini?on: The higher someone s income (IV) is, as determined by a poll, the more likely they are to say they vote (DV), on the same poll.

21 Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV: Hypothesis: The beeer the state of the economy, the greater the propor>on of votes received by the party of the president. Independent Variable: State of the Economy Dependent Variable: propor>on of votes Unit of Analysis: Elec>ons Hypothesis: The more nega>ve the adver>sing in a Senatorial campaign, the lower the turnout rate. Independent Variable: nega>vity of ads Dependent Variable: turnout Unit of Analysis: US states (elec>ons)

22 Examples of Units of Analysis and IV and DV: Hypothesis: Media aeen>on is necessary for a candidate to succeed in a primary elec>on. Independent Variable: media aeen>on Dependent Variable: electoral success Unit of Analysis: elec>ons Hypothesis: Southern states have less party compe>>on than Northern states. Independent Variable: region Dependent Variable: party compe>>on Unit of Analysis: states

23 Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Concept 1 is related to Concept 2 Hypothesis: Variable 1 (IV) is related to Variable 2 (DV) Opera?onal Defini?on: IV: Defini>on of Cause DV: Defini>on of Effect

24 Theory: Inequality and Democracy Review: Levels of Analysis Hypothesis: Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Opera?onal Defini?ons: IV: (Inequality): Income Levels DV: (Democracy): Vo>ng IV: (Inequality): Poli>cal Contribu>ons DV: (Democracy): Representa>on IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

25 Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: SSM and 2004 Elec>on Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush s reelec>on (DV). Opera?onal Defini?ons: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Reelec?on): Republican Vo>ng % by state Selec?on Bias: Varia?on on DV DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Vo>ng % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Vo>ng % by state without Ban

26 Theory: US Culture and Foreign Policy Review: Levels of Analysis Hypothesis: A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) shapes US Foreign Policy (DV). Opera?onal Defini?ons: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq Selec?on Bias: Varia>on on DV DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan

27 Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Gambling and Economic Development Hypothesis: Legalized Gambling (IV) will increase state revenues (DV). Opera?onal Defini?ons: IV: (Gambling): Casino and Slot Machines Licenses DV: (State Revenue): Increase in State Taxes Selec?on Bias: Varia>on on DV DV: (State Revenue): Increase in State Taxes in States with Gambling DV: (State Revenue): Increase in State Taxes in States without Gambling

28 Review: Levels of Analysis Theory: Women and Poli>cs Hypothesis: Gender (IV) had a defining effect on Nancy Pelosi s elec>on as Speaker of the House of Representa>ves. (DV). Opera?onal Defini?ons: IV: (Gender): Gender of Candidate DV: (Leadership): Likelihood Women are Elected as a Leader.

29 Essay Outlines: Introduc?on: Topic: Inequality and Democracy Ques?on: How does Inequality affect Democracy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): Inequality (IV) adversely effects Democracy (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Opera>onal Defini>ons): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Inequality): Racial Density of City DV: (Democracy): Rate of Government Response

30 Essay Outlines: Introduc?on: Topic: SSM and 2004 Elec>on Ques?on: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush s reelec>on? Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush s reelec>on (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? Argument/Analysis: (Opera?onal Defini?ons): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Vo>ng % by state with Ban DV: (Bush Reelect): Rep. Vo>ng % by state without Ban

31 Introduc?on: Essay Outlines: Topic: US Culture and Foreign Policy Ques?on: Is a Culture of Unilateralism shaping US Foreign Policy? Thesis: (Hypothesis): A Culture of Unilateralism (IV) is (DV). Literature Review: What have other said about the topic? shapes US Foreign Policy Argument/Analysis: (Opera>onal Defini>ons): How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument: IV: (Unilateralism): Policy/Rhetoric of White House DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Iraq DV: (US Foreign Policy): Number of US Allies In Afghanistan