Voting and Elections. Chapter 8

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1 Voting and Elections Chapter 8

2 Who will guard the guardians? The idea of being qualified to vote raises problems Our answer to this question has changed a lot over time

3 Restrictions on Franchise Colonial times ( s) No women Few Catholics, Jews, native Americans, or free Black people i.e., some white, Protestant men could vote

4 Not all white, Protestant men could vote. Each colony had a property qualification Why?

5 Early Americans wanted to guarantee that voters were virtuous and independent Impact of Calvinism

6 That becomes the essence of the Protestant Ethic Worldly success is a sign of personal salvation

7 Revolutionary War ( ) No taxation without representation! By 1830s, white male suffrage

8 Women Q: If all white men are qualified to vote, why not white women? A: Women s rights get tangled up in racial issues

9 What changed? Politics. The dominant party (Republicans) came to believe women voting would help them. - Prohibition

10 African-Americans By the 1880s, Black male suffrage in the North By 1900, the Jim Crow (segregation) system was entrenched in the South

11 In 1965, Congress passes the Voting Rights Act Federal government to supervise elections in the South Southern states forced to create majority-minority electoral districts

12 Young people (18-20 years old) 26 th Amendment (1971) lowers voting age Impact?

13 Given all of these struggles

15 In 2000, a majority of Americans chose NOT to vote Many blamed: Lazy young people Peace & prosperity Media effects

16 BUT: Voter turnout was up to 60.7% in turnout was expected to be very, very high Obama/Palin effects?

17 Reality: 2008 turnout rate about 62% African-American turnout very high in the South year old turnout ~ 51%

18 Moral: A lot of what people know about elections is wrong! Many ask, Why do so many people stay home on election day?

19 The better question to ask is: Why does anybody bother to vote in the first place?

20 Over 400 people are hit by lightning in the US every year

21 This guy has been hit by lightning 3 times!

22 In 2008, 131,257,328 votes were cast for President My vote was 1 out of the total. So was yours. One vote weighs 1 / 131,257,328 = % of the total 7 ten-millionths of 1%!

23 In 2008, SC cast 1,920,969 votes for Pres. My 1 made up % of the total 5 millionths of 1%

24 The odds of 1 vote deciding an election are very, very, very small. People who say, My vote doesn t count have a bit of a point

25 There s also a flipside: For millions of people, just going out to vote can be a challenge

26 This is all to say something important: Millions of people see good reasons not to vote

27 Here s the point: Going out to vote produces benefits We can group those benefits into 2 categories:

28 Instrumental Benefit A vote is a means to an end It s support for a candidate, a party, an idea

29 BUT: A vote is one out of millions So, each vote has very little chance of affecting the election Therefore, the instrumental benefit of voting is very small!

30 Expressive Benefits Yet, millions of people vote Are they irrational? No. Many feel that it is important to vote Civic Duty Responsibility Want to have my say

31 Since the instrumental benefit of voting is always low: Most voters are motivated by expressive benefits But, not everyone responds to those psychological benefits

33 Civics classes and campaigns like VoD try to get young people to develop expressive benefits of voting. Do they work? Not much evidence they do, and they are expensive!

34 Costs of Voting The benefits of voting are, at best, mostly psychological The costs of voting are felt much more directly 2 types of cost:

35 Opportunity Cost Def: Time spent on one thing when you d rather do something else The time spent actually going out to cast a ballot Travel time, standing in line, lost income, etc.

36 Information Cost Def: Time spent figuring out who to vote for and why

37 An individual will vote when: P(B v ) C v 0 WTF?

38 Individual Factors Affecting Turnout 4 most relevant: 1. Age 2. Education 3. Region of the country 4. Race

39 Age Single best predictor of individual turnout Around age 30, likelihood of voting increases Until around age 80 Costs & benefits

40 Education Statistical effects of 1 year+ of college: Live about 8 years longer than high school dropouts Earn about $600,000 more over the course of one s life 20% more likely to vote

41 Why? Increasing education builds efficacy Def: A belief that one s choices / opinions matter

42 In terms of politics, efficacy takes 2 forms: Internal efficacy Increased ability to make sense of political info External efficacy Belief that one s choices have an impact

43 Southerners Residents of former Confederate states Residents of states bordering the South

44 Non-white African-Americans & Latinos Each about 6% less likely to vote than Caucasians & Asian-Americans

45 Problem All of these factors add up: Older, white, educated, northerner is almost 75% more likely to vote than a young, loweducation, non-white Southerner

46 Institutional Factors also affect turnout The way we do elections give people reasons not to vote

47 Voter registration US is the only democracy that makes citizens register to vote Most states require registration 30+ days before election

48 Solutions Motor-Voter Act (1993) Can register to vote anywhere a driver s license can be obtained Same-day registration 9 states let people register on election day 10-12% increase in turnout

49 Election Day is itself a problem Workday Limited hours Limited polling places Lots of different elections Federal, state, county, city, local, blah blah blah

50 Solutions: 1. Multiple days to vote 2. Election Day holiday 3. Mail-in or Internet voting 4. Compulsory Voting

51 The Question All these factors produce voters who: Are disproportionately older, white, and educated But is this something we should be concerned about?

52 Low Turnout is Bad 3 Arguments 1. Voters don t represent the nation as a whole.

53 2. Low turnout is caused by phony politics.

54 3. Nonvoters are more isolated, more selfish, more ignorant of the world around them.

55 Low Turnout, No Problem 1. Low turnout means voter satisfaction.

56 2. Increasing turnout means mobilizing the less educated & less interested.

57 3. Elections are a farce, anyway. Big money always wins.

Chapter 6: Voters and Voter Behavior Section 1: The Constitution and the Right to Vote

Chapter 6: Voters and Voter Behavior Section 1: The Constitution and the Right to Vote Section 1: The Constitution and the Right to Vote Key Terms: suffrage; franchise; electorate A. The History of Voting Rights 1. In the early 1800s religious, property-ownership, and tax-payment qualifications