"Do not follow where the path may lead. Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail." Muriel Strode UMMUN 2007.

Transcription

1 Background Guide United Nations Future Security Council: The Tragedy on Taiwan: An Issue for the Member States of the Future Security Council 2020

2

3 Letter from the Directors Meredith Blank Sophomore, Political Science Major Jay Swathirajan Sophomore, Cell and Molecular Biology Dear Delegate, We would like to welcome you to the Future Security Council. You will have the opportunity to be a part of one of the most important committees in the United Nations, in the future! Our scenario will take place in the year 2020, when tensions between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People s Republic of China (Mainland China) are at an all time high. At the same time, the world has been thrust into a major environmental and economic crisis. Since this meeting of the Security Council occurs in the future, the dais has complete control of the events that occur. Therefore, in order to have a successful weekend, you must be able to effectively navigate through the many crises we have in store. You will be one of only fifteen delegates who will be participating in this committee. Therefore, we expect that all of you should participate equally to ensure a lively debate. When researching, make sure to find out your countries tendencies on various issues that will be discussed during the conference. Although our scenario takes place in the future, the past still offers an extremely important guide. We hope you enjoy learning about these topics and look forward to seeing you for the conference. Meredith and Jay Co-Directors-Future Security Council

4 Table of contents... Page Committee Background... 1 Mission Statement... 2 Topic Overviews... 2 Topic A: Breakdown of Cross-Strait Negotiations:The Cross-Strait Crisis... 3 Background... 5 Current Situation... 6 Bloc Positions... 6 Focus Questions... 9 Important Research Links... 9 Topic B: Failure for Pollution Standards Fighting Global Greenhouse Negligence Background Current Situation Bloc Positions Focus Questions Important Research Links References... 14

5 Committee Background 1 Security Council: Seven Permanent Members with Veto Power: China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, United States, India, Brazil Rotating Members: Japan, Republic of Korea, Islamic Republic of Iran, Denmark, Ghana, Greece, Peru, Tanzania The function of the United Nations Future Security Council is to: - maintain international peace and security in accordance with the principles and purposes of the United Nations; - investigate any dispute or situation which might lead to international friction; - recommend methods of adjusting such disputes or the terms of settlement; - formulate plans for the establishment of a system to regulate armaments; - determine the existence of a threat to the peace or act of aggression and to recommend what action should be taken; - call on Members to apply economic sanctions and other measures not involving the use of force to prevent or stop aggression; - take military action against an aggressor; - exercise the trusteeship functions of the United Nations in "strategic areas";

6 Mission Statement The goal of the Future Security Council is to help prevent outbreaks of international 2 violence from growing into wider, interstate security conflicts. The UNFSC has opened the way to negotiated settlements through its service as a center for debate and cross-state diplomacy. UN Peacekeeping forces, comprised of troops and equipment supplied by member states have been able to limit and prevent international security risks. Key to the success of the UN peacekeeping efforts is the willingness of the parties in a conflict to come to terms peacefully through a viable political process. Topic overviews The focus of the UNFSC is the escalating crisis between the People s Republic of China and the island of Taiwan, currently governed as the Republic of China. Since 1949, Taiwan has existed as a breakaway de facto nation, still claimed by the government of the PRC. Currently, neither the United Nations nor most major nation-states recognize the government of Taiwan as a sovereign nation. In our committee, the year 2020 will see independence-minded factions clashing with the forces working to maintain the status quo amidst a gathering world trade crisis. Our delegates will work hard attempting to maintain the balance and keep both East Asia and the world free of military and economic chaos.

7 Topic A: Breakdown of Cross-Strait Negotiations 3 The Cross-Strait Crisis The Taiwan-P.R.C. Cross-Strait issue is potentially the most dangerous in Asia and the most consequential for China's future economic and political trajectory. Starting before World War II and continuing afterwards, a civil war was fought on Mainland China between the nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) government and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Mao Zedong. When the civil war ended in 1949, 2 million refugees, predominately from the Nationalist government, military, and business community, fled to Taiwan. In October 1949 the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) was founded on the mainland by the CCP. Chiang Kai-shek established a "provisional" KMT capital in Taipei in December Since then, the KMT of Taiwan has involved into a pro-unification party, supporting the CCP and adamantly against the independence party, the DPP. In the wake of President Hu Jintao s One China Policy, the long history between Taiwan and the Mainland has set the stage for escalating conflicts. Background Cross-Strait Negotiations have been halting in recent years, despite previous periods of progress. In February 2003, Taiwan and the P.R.C. agreed to allow Taiwan carriers to fly via Hong Kong or Macao to bring Taiwan residents on the mainland home for the Lunar New Year holiday. The two sides agreed to conduct Lunar New Year charter flights again in 2005, with flights operated by both Taiwan and P.R.C. carriers flying over, but not

8 having to land in, Hong Kong or Macau. The two sides agreed on an expanded 4 series of Lunar New Year charter flights in January-February In May 2000, former R.O.C. President Chen resumed official cross-strait dialogues without any preconditions. The P.R.C. responded that the Chen administration must acknowledge that the two sides reached a consensus that there is only "one China" before any dialogue could be restarted. In 2004, President Chen recognized the P.R.C.'s insistence on "one China" but stopped short of endorsing the concept. He called for a new "Cross-Strait Framework for Peace and Stability" and enhanced political, economic, and social exchanges between the two sides. Then in March 2005, the P.R.C endorsed the Anti-Secession Law that promoted peaceful reunification and undermined secessionist movements. In Article 2 of the Anti-Succession Law, it stated, There is only one China in the world. Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included. However, the most consequential article of the Anti-Secession Law was Article 9, which stated that the P.R.C is allowed the employment and execution of non-peaceful means and other necessary measures, which justifies and even promotes the legitimate use of military force. From 2005 to 2010, Taipei and Beijing have been cautiously feeling each other out on a series of smaller, intermediary steps, including cross-strait cargo and passenger charter flights, sale of Taiwan agricultural products in the P.R.C., and P.R.C. tourists visiting

9 Taiwan. Nevertheless, the economic, environmental and Big Oil events of the last 5 decade have dramatically pressured both the R.O.C. and the P.R.C to take more hard-line approaches on the issue of reunification. Current Situation The Pan-China Taiwan party, Kuomintang, won Taiwan s 2008 elections. President Ma Ying-jeou defined his term of office (until 2016) with a series of reforms promoting offshore transshipment centers, direct flights and mass transit systems all directly to the PRC. R.O.C indirect trade with the P.R.C has jumped to a record 28% under President Ma Ying-jeou. However, his presidency was not without problems. Under President Ma, Taiwan s disastrous banking sector continued to expand with no banking company holding any more than 8% of the market. In response to poor market conditions, Former Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party and current R.O.C President, Yu Shyi-kun, just recently won 2020 elections earlier this year. He has reinstated travel bans with the P.R.C. and cut off dialogues with P.R.C President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao after its refusal for ceasing military build-up around mass transit systems. Taiwan's longtime cross-strait policy-making agency, the Mainland Affairs Council, has been attacked in recent weeks by presumably Taiwan Independence loyalists. KMT and Pan-Blue pressures have resulted in P.R.C military deployment in Taiwan s smaller islands of Kinmen and Matsu. The P.R.C has announced plans to deploy troops of

10 the CCP, the People s Liberation Army, in Taipei to protect the KMT legislature. 6 Currently, the PLA has over 2.5 million troops. Bloc Positions The Middle East: The Iraqi government is now strongly Anti-American and pro-iranian. Geopolitics of the region are similar to those of Countries such as the U.A.E. and Iran have considerable influence in the realm of Big Oil because of backdoor deals with Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell. India: India has strong policy alliances in the U.K., U.S. and Japan. Since India is a growing power in the region, they have a strong role in our scenario. Congress approves the nuclear deal Bush signed in his visit to India in 2006, and India now runs mostly off of nuclear power. Therefore, they probably will not be severely hampered by the rising oil costs. India would be a staunch ally of the US/UK/Japan alliance. Russia: China struck a major deal with Russia regarding military arms trade, known as the Sino-Russian Alignment Plan, signed March Both Russia and China have yet to democratize, which polarizes them further from Japan and the U.K. Over the last fifteen years, Russia has been bumped down to number ten in terms of largest oil reserves. Russia s depleting oil supplies and increasing air quality concerns are all taking a toll on its economy.

11 United States: The United States must decide whether to renege on its Taiwan 7 Relations Act or undermine trade policies with the P.R.C. The triangular relation stresses problems with The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), P.L. 96-8, signed April 10, 1979, that creates domestic legal authority for the conduct of unofficial relations with Taiwan. Currently, the United States has yet to refrain from small arms trade with Taipei. Since de-recognition, the United States, in accordance with the TRA, has continued the sale of selected defensive military equipment and defense technology to Taiwan. These sales have often prompted strong objections from the P.R.C.The United States continues strong relations with Japan and the United Kingdom, both of which have backed Taiwanese independence. Japan: Extremely anti-iranian and anti-russian, Japan has become E.U. of the East, fighting for Pan-Asian democratization and environmental movements. The source of pollution created today by burning fossil fuels is moved to centralized power plants, where the byproducts of burning fossil fuels can be better controlled. Due to AP6 noncompliance and China s continued military and economic advances, Japan has requested a trade barrier against China. This trade-barrier has led to significant breakdown in cross-strait negotiations regarding Taiwan s independence. Ghana and Tanzania: Both of these African nations have expressed strong support for a one-china policy, in favor of the PRC, for many years. Delegates from both nations have frequently referenced General Assembly Resolution 2758, the 1971 resolution granting

12 China s seats at the UN to the PRC, in speeches on the topic. In fact, a 8 representative from Ghana recognized the Government of the People s Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of China, of which Taiwan [is] an integral part. (A/BUR/56/SR.2, General Assembly, 56 th session, 2 nd meeting Official Records) A delegate from Tanzania similarly stated that the one-china policy [is] an unquestionable reality which [is] essential for the maintenance and furtherance of international peace and security. (A/BUR/59/SR.2, General Assembly, 59 th session, 2 nd meeting Official Records) Both of these nations have significant trade relations with China, which have been steadily increasing during the first 20 years of the 21 st century. These important economic ties likely play a strong role in the states support of the PRC Denmark: The Danish have been trend setters in establishing relations with the Chinese government. They were one of the first countries to open up diplomatic and economic channels over seven decades ago. Even as of 2006, the Danish see China as a key trading partner. The Danish government follows the EU s recognition of the One China Policy, and therefore does not have diplomatic relations with Taipei. However, the Danish have voiced their concerns about Beijing s human rights problems. If violations were perceived to be egregious, this issue could turn Denmark into an enemy, rather than a friend, of China. Peru/Brazil: Through the years, Peru and Brazil have built strong diplomatic and economic alliances with China. Neither country diplomatically recognizes the nation of Taiwan.

13 Focus Questions Should U.S. suspend the Taiwan s Relation Act? 9 In what ways could a dialogue begin between the CCP and DPP? Research Links Crisis Issue Brief on Taiwan and the United States United States State Department on Taiwan

14 Topic B: Failure for Pollution Standards Fighting Global Greenhouse Negligence 10 Background In 2020, member states of the UN account for 95% of the world s greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, GDP and population. The biggest global initiative on the environment is currently The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (also known as the AP6), which is a non-binding agreement announced on July 28, 2005 and launched on January 21, The treaty must be renewed every four years and has done so on February 13, 2010, January 25, 2014 and February 3, The AP6 initial members were Australia, India, Japan, The People s Republic of China, South Korea, and the United States. Other members are the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, France, Brazil and Mexico. Foreign, Environment and Energy Ministers from partner countries agree to co-operate on development and transfer of technology which enables reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Ministers agreed on a Charter, Communique and Work Plan that outlines a new model of private-public taskforce to address climate change, energy security and air pollution. Current Situation The Charter has created fifteen nongovernmental safe-air research companies aimed to economically reduce factory emissions in industrial hotspots like Shanghai and New York City. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol that imposes mandatory limits on gas emissions, AP6 allows member for a country-by-country reduction of emissions and customized action plans. Some countries, namely the People s Republic of China and the Russian Federation have been accused of reneging even on these customized plans and

15 supplying insufficient and incomplete information on current gas emissions. 11 Currently, only Japan has responded with sanctions. Rise of Gas Prices: By 2020, the projected price is $ per barrel, as demand dramatically increases but technological improvements help expand production worldwide, restraining price increases as the world demand for oil grows. Leading economists noted that energy prices are rising much faster than wages and becoming increasingly difficult for consumers to absorb, which has resulted in lower global consumer spending. The increase in gasoline prices is a redistribution of income from consumers of gasoline to the stockholders of refiners and the Big Oil market as a whole. Seven of the top ten companies on Fortune s 2020 Global 500 are oil companies, including Exxon Mobile Corporation, ConocoPhillips, and Royal Dutch Shell. Six of the top ten oil reserve countries in the world are currently Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iraq, U.A.E., Kuwait, and Iran. Over the last fifteen years, Russia has been bumped down to number ten in terms of largest oil reserves. Russia s depleting oil supplies and increasing air quality concerns are all taking a toll on its economy. Furthermore, Iran and the U.A.E now have a considerable sphere of influence because of backdoor deals with Exxon Mobile and Royal Dutch Shell.

16 Bloc Positions 12 The Middle East: Although Middle Eastern countries are rarely aligned by anything, oil is one galvanizing force. Middle Eastern countries are opposed to many strict environmental restrictions as it hampers their ability to sell oil at prices that exceed market value. Countries such as Iran and Iraq have aligned themselves with the Chinese as protection against American aggression. Japan: Ford-Mazda has released the first fuel cell (hydrogen) car at Mazda Global Headquarters in Tokyo, Japan. Pure hydrogen as a power source means it uses oxygen from the air to produce water vapor as exhaust (and very little nitrogen oxides from the nitrogen in the air when burning at high temperatures). United States: Before the current situation with Taiwan, the United States chose not to play an active role because many of its private oil companies had a vested interest in continuing their beneficial relationship with oil producing countries. Furthermore, the Sino- US trade situation had been extremely stable and fruitful for both countries. Ghana and Tanzania: Although the industrial sectors in these nations have been slowly developing, neither state produces large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, these countries are not overly concerned about facing international criticism due to their own emissions standards, even though the industrial infrastructure that does exist tends to be lacking in modern pollution-control systems. However, the impacts of other countries excessive emissions are felt worldwide, so this is still an issue of some concern for these

17 states. Generally, Ghana and Tanzania would like to see pollution guidelines 13 enforced appropriately. However, neither nation would likely go so far as to support sanctioning those nations who do not comply, especially since both countries have significant trade relations with the PRC, one of the nations most commonly accused of violating emissions standards. Greece, Denmark and United Kingdom: All three European nations hold similar positions regarding Greenhouse gas regulations. Denmark has tried to wean itself off of oil by placing more resources towards wind energy. However, all European Union nations are still heavily dependent upon oil as their main source of energy. Greece has worked on many international Air Pollution agreements including the including Air Pollution-Sulfur 94 and The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (AP6). Brazil and Peru: Brazil made waves early in the 21 st century by introducing ethanol based fuels. Sugar cane resources, used to make the Brazilian ethanol, are still abundantly plentiful. As Peru industrializes at a rapid pace, however, its need for oil has increased. Peru does not have the sugar cane resources that Brazil has, therefore is more dependent upon foreign oil sources. Focus Questions Should the global community take action against China and the Russian Federation for their lapses in emissions control?

18 References 14 "Country Profile: Taiwan." BBC. 11 Aug BBC. 19 Oct < "Denmark." CIA World Factbook. 17 Oct CIA. 19 Oct < "Ghana." CIA World Factbook. 17 Oct CIA. 19 Oct < "Greece." CIA World Factbook. 17 Oct CIA. 19 Oct < "Speech Index." UNBISNet. United Nations. 19 Oct <