Beijing s Taiwan Policy After the 2016 Elections

Transcription

1 Sam Nunn School of International Affairs Georgia Institute of Technology September 3, 2017

2 Cross-Strait Stalemate As a Commitment Problem A Dynamic Cold Peace

3 Cross-Strait Stalemate As a Commitment Problem A Dynamic Cold Peace The DPP and the CCP suffer from the commitment problem in international relations: The CCP worries reconciliation will enhance the DPP s position to pursue Taiwan independence The DPP worries concession will encourage the CCP to demand further steps toward unification

4 Cross-Strait Stalemate As a Commitment Problem A Dynamic Cold Peace Cross-strait relations froze after Tsai s inauguration, but a hot conflict is unlikely in the short-term: Tsai Ing-wen has no political needs to provoke China Median voters support her cross-strait discourse China believes time is on its side Xi Jinping is consumed with the 19th Party Congress

5 Tsai used three major occasions to lay out her cross-strait policies and signal goodwill to Beijing: Her inaugural speech on May 20th Her administrations reactions to the South China Sea ruling in July 2016 Her National Day Speech on October 10th

6 Inaugural Speech Tsai used four discourses to approach as closely as possible to the 1992 Consensus : She vowed to defend the territory and sovereignty defined by the ROC constitution She vowed to follow the Act Governing Relations Between the People of Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area She called the common understanding the two sides reached in 1992 a historical fact She called for the two ruling parties across the Taiwan Strait to dialogue

7 South China Sea Ruling Tsai rejected the ruling and did not ally with the United States to undermine China s claims.

8 National Day Speech In her first National Day speech, Tsai repeated every points in her inaugural speech and emphasized her 4 noes : her promises won t change her goodwill won t change but her administration won t bend under pressure though her administration won t return to confrontation with China, either

9 In sum, at the current state, the cross-strait relations defined by the ROC constitution is Tsai s bottom line, and she has shown no intention to go beyond that.

10 Unfortunately, Beijing did not find Tsai s embrace of the ROC good enough. China called Tsai s position an incomplete answer sheet on the nature of cross-strait relations This is intriguing, since Embracing the ROC constitution is no small step for the DPP China did not oppose Frank Hsieh s constitutional one China

11 The issue is the commitment problem, and the commitment problem becomes salient because The DPP has become the ruling party Tsai is the leader of the DPP regime and the Taiwan authority

12 Inconsistency also exacerbates the commitment problem. Inconsistency from the DPP: Pushing for joining the UN in the name of Taiwan Pushing for removing Sun Yat-sen s portraits and statues from schools and government buildings Inconsistency from Tsai: Nominating pro-independence justices of constitutional court Aborting adjustments in high school history course outlines Putting the Chinese history under the rubric of East Asian history in the textbook Snubbing official worship of Koxinga Open letter to the DPP s 30th Anniversary

13 China at the moment does not have incentives to use force: Relative power has tilted to China s favor and unlikely to change soon No swift alternation of relative power, so no imperative for war The CCP is consumed with the 19th Party Congress

14 China s strategy was to bring pressure on Tsai to squeeze out as many concessions as possible Diplomatic pressure Military pressure Economic pressure Aspects symbolizing sovereignty more were pressed harder

15 Diplomatic Pressure China suspended official (TAO-MAC) and semi-official (ARATS-SEF) contacts China blocked Taiwan s participation in ICAO and WHA China snatched Sao Tome and Principe and Panama China pressured Taiwan s trade offices to change names

16 Military Pressure

17 Military Pressure

18 Economic Pressure Beijing ended contract agricultural production with Taiwan Monthly numbers of Chinese tourists have dropped for more than 50% However, cross-strait trade has not been affected much

19 Economic Pressure 86, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,867 50, , , , , , , , ,000 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Number of Tourists from Mainland Total Tourists

20 14,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 - Overview Economic Pressure Cross-Strait Trade USD $ in billions Aug-92 Oct-92 Dec-92 Feb-93 Apr-93 Jun-93 Aug-93 Oct-93 Dec-93 Feb-94 Apr-94 Jun-94 Aug-94 Oct-94 Dec-94 Feb-95 Apr-95 Jun-95 Aug-95 Oct-95 Dec-95 Feb-96 Apr-96 Jun-96 Aug-96 Oct-96 Dec-96 Feb-97 Apr-97 Jun-97 Aug-97 Oct-97 Dec-97 Feb-98 Apr-98 Jun-98 Aug-98 Oct-98 Dec-98 Feb-99 Apr-99 Jun-99 Aug-99 Oct-99 Dec-99 Feb-00 Apr-00 Jun-00 Aug-00 Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Date Net Exports to China (USD) - Exports and Reexports Net Imports from China in Previous Year (USD) - Net Total Trade with China

21 Economic Pressure China-Taiwan Trade May 16 - May 17 Taiwan Exports to China Taiwan Imports from China Total trade with China 25,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 USD $ IN BILLIONS 15,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 - May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 DATE

22 Several possible explanations on the different policies: Tourism was easy to manipulate Tourism hurt Taiwan s domestic economy but not Taiwanese businesses in China Trade disputes could be brought to the WTO

23 What are possible scenarios for the future? A dynamic cold peace is most likely, unless China s domestic factors intervene A compromise between Tsai and Beijing cannot be totally ruled out Beijing has not totally given up on Tsai China s perception of the KMT s strength matters Who are the alternatives to Tsai inside the DPP?